Peace with Iran will lead to war: Part 2

Hardened Iranian Nuclear Facility at Fordo(w)

Hardened Iranian Nuclear Facility at Fordo(w)

Last week I discussed why peace with Iran was the preferred option.  I outlined a number of salient points uninformed talking heads in the media and well paid Israel lobbyists such as the former US Ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton, will never bring up.  In short, the costs of a war with Iran will far outweigh the costs of accepting a turbulent peace.  Even a successful war against Iran will be a Pyric victory and cause an economic collapse in the US.  Further, even if Iran did test a nuclear weapon, we would still have plenty of time to exercise the war option should it be necessary.  Unfortunately, even if the US does manage to broker a peace deal with Iran, war is now close to a certainty.  In the event of a war with Iran, there will be dire implications for the US.  Today I will discuss why war is now imminent, how it will likely be initiated, and the catastrophic effects on the US you must prepare to endure.

Secretary of State John Kerry has been involved in intense marathon negotiations with the Iranians over the last couple weeks trying to pull together a last minute peace deal all while Israel has done everything in its power to undermine the negotiations counter to the interests of US National Security.  Secretary Kerry’s efforts are noble and Israel’s are expected.  However, Israel should save what little political clout it has with the White House and not worry about the deal because any deal with Iran will ultimately prove futile.  Iran isn’t going to suspend its nuclear program even if it did agree to do so in a treaty.  The fact is the current geopolitical framework that has developed in the Middle East precludes a deal and the US should have realized this from the start.  Iran’s enemies to include Saudi Arabia, Israel, Sunni extremists (ISIL, Al Qaeda, Taliban, etc.), and the US have all double downed on destroying Iran’s allies in the region such as in Syria and Yemen in an effort to weaken and eventually topple Iran.  Due to what Iran sees as existential threats all around it, Iran sees its nuclear program as more important for its defense than ever.  Disturbingly, the chaos the US has sowed across the Middle East actually makes it more, not less likely, Iran will be “forced” to turn to a bomb to deter technologically superior militaries in Israel and Saudi Arabia to speak nothing of the US military.  This very dangerous situation is reminiscent of when Saddam Hussein, knowing he didn’t have weapons of mass destruction (WMD), still wouldn’t disclose he no longer possessed WMD, which led to a war.  Only after the war began did we learn that Hussein kept up the WMD charade because he knew his military was hollow and he feared his near enemy of Iran more than the US.  In fact Hussein knew he had to maintain at least the presumption he still had WMD to deter his enemies and hold on to power.  Although Iran has a proven nuclear power program, whether or not they choose to develop that further into a nuclear weapons program is a card they must retain in order to deter any foreign attack.  Perhaps nothing will dissuade Iran; however, one can conclude that by currently supporting the overthrow of Iran’s neighbors and allies, the US has made concluding a deal on Iran’s nuclear program geopolitically impossible.  Certainly the White House and State Department are well aware of these circumstances.  Considering this, one must wonder if this was the plan all along and the “peace deal” was nothing more than clever political window dressing by a Nobel Peace Prize recipient to justify a war that has already been deemed imminent.

As I stated earlier, no matter the outcome of the negotiations, factors beyond even President Obama’s control will now lead the US toward a major regional war in the Middle East with Iran.  Outlining the possible outcomes is actually quite simple.  If Iran doesn’t conclude a peace deal, it is likely the US will eventually attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, which will lead to a war.  Further, if the US doesn’t attack Iran quickly enough after failing to achieve a peace deal, Israel and or Saudi Arabia will attack Iran believing the failure to have a negotiated deal for peace is confirmation of an Iranian nuclear weapons program.  Saudi Arabia and Israel may make strange bedfellows, but both view Iran as their existential enemy for different reasons.  I argue Israel is the more likely of the two countries to deem Iran an existential threat and attack, but Saudi Arabia is not far behind.  Although their logic justifying a war is flawed, it will not change their calculus for war.  Ironically, even if there is a peace deal or some agreement to “continue talks”, both Saudi Arabia and Israel will still view the Iranian nuclear program as an existential threat that must be extinguished sooner rather than later.  The US will have neither the political will nor ability to constrain Saudi Arabia and Israel and they will unilaterally attack Iran causing a war that will force the US to become involved.  As such, no matter the outcome, war with Iran is now virtually preordained.

It is no mystery how the US can military take apart Iran’s military and obliterate its nuclear sites.  However, even if the US did initiate the war, as I pointed out in Part I, it will be extremely costly and end up prematurely bankrupting the US (Note, the US is already facing what many analysts consider an imminent economic collapse and a war with Iran may become a great distractor and something upon which to blame the collapse).  Alone, the shear costs of a potential war act to deter the US from initiating this war unless it is an absolute last resort…as it should be.  Further, President Obama has strongly signaled to the world he has no immediate intentions of attacking Iran even though powerful special interests behind the scenes are demanding it.  With the US both politically and financially constrained, it has become apparent to Israel that it will likely have to act unilaterally.  How Israel would accomplish such a feat without US support is of great importance because it will ultimately cause the US great harm.

Israel will wait as long as possible before attacking because it does recognize the high political cost of going against its biggest ally, the US.  Further, Israel will also endure heavy costs for a war, which it would much rather pawn off on the US military and US taxpayers.  As such, it will first work through proxies and covert action to continue to undermine Iran and provoke it into a war with the US.  Covert action has already accounted for massive damage to Iran’s nuclear program to include complex cyber-attacks, bombing of its missile development facilities, and assassination of Iran’s nuclear scientists.  However, covert action is not decisive and only delays Iran’s nuclear program.  Israel will also capitalize on Saudi Arabia’s fears of Iranian encroachment by covertly supporting pro-Iranian Shia minorities in Saudi Arabia and Yemen to further convince Saudi Arabia of the need to attack Iran.  Israel’s false flag strategy is not restricted to Saudi Arabia and will be used against the US.  Dangerously, this will likely lead to the deaths of Americans in hopes that an Iranian backed “terrorist” organization will be blamed for an attack and the US will then politically demand military action against Iran.  Short of a success in its covert deception program to fool the US into a war with Iran, Israel will have to fight it itself.

Concurrently, the US and Saudi Arabia will continue to try and align the Arab nations against Iran as we have seen with Yemen.  As this continues, it will only reinforce to Iran its need to have a nuclear weapon to defend itself.  Meanwhile, the entire Middle East will further descend into factional violence that will eventually rip apart nearly every country in the region.  Israel has long sought perpetual violence amongst its Arab neighbors because the logic was that it would weaken the Arabs and make them less likely to be able to effectively attack Israel.  However, this plan has totally backfired as all evil plots do.  Israel did get the violence and death, but instead of a Middle East turned against itself in Israel’s favor, it has weakened Israel’s Arab allies, created a violent terrorist army that will eventually march on Israel after consolidating its gains, and strengthened its biggest enemy Iran.  The combined failure of years of covert action, sanctions against Iran, negotiations, and regime change will leave Israel no choice but to yield to overt warfare.

I have written often about the focus of Israel’s military spending, which sought to develop its subsurface warfare capabilities in preparation for a war with Iran (see links below).  Specifically, Israel has spent billions on modifying and upgrading German diesel-electric Dolphin submarines to carry a variety of missiles, some of which can be armed with a nuclear warhead.  The program’s cost was massive for Israel, but wasn’t an accident.  Israel correctly recognized the need for both first and second strike options, which its submarine fleet provides.  Although Israel’s Air Force is much touted, a first strike using aircraft against Iran would likely fail to achieve the necessary results and could very well end in a complete disaster.  Any air strike would have to be massive, which would most likely give up the element of surprise and first fly through air space the US controls.  In fact, there is no guarantee the US would even allow Israel to attack.  Leaked documents show that President Obama already had ordered Israeli jets shot down if they launched an attack back in the fall of 2014.  Further, an air strike would be vulnerable to Iran’s air defense systems, would not be sustainable, and would not likely be able to effectively target and destroy all of Iran’s nuclear facilities.  Worse yet for Israel, there would be no denying the origin of the attack and Israel being seen as the aggressor would have to endure Iran’s military response.  As such, Israel needed a better battle plan.

Israel’s true battle plan is not one that relies on a lightning air strike, but one that relies on its submarines to quietly move into attack positions in the Black Sea and Persian Gulf.  Once in position, these submarines can launch a mix of conventional and nuclear weapons against Iran’s hardened nuclear facilities.  Should Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu, a figure that has long sought Iran’s destruction and just won a tough re-election by a large majority, decide time is up for Iran, it will be the submarines that launch on Iran.  Tactical nuclear weapons will be used against the most hardened Iranian nuclear facilities such as Fordo.  Conventional weapons will be used against less difficult targets.  Other key facilities will also be hit such as regime headquarters, military command and control nodes, power plants, oil and gas facilities, and specific air defense installations to allow for follow-on attacks.  Once the first strike is complete, Israel will remain quiet and wait.  Israel is betting that Iran will absorb the attack and either not retaliate or retaliate broadly against Saudi and US interests.  In the event of the former, Israel will have achieved its objectives.  In the event of the latter, the US and Saudi Arabia will be forced into the war on Israel’s behalf, which also will achieve Israel’s objectives (at the expense of the US).  However, should Iran specifically target only Israel and correctly identify the source of the attack as Israeli submarines (not likely), Israel has calculated that it is acceptable to potentially lose thousands of its citizens, which would then justify a full nuclear retaliatory strike against Iran to finish the war decisively.  Israel knows that this is the only decisive war it can afford to fight against Iran without US intervention and use the credible threat of a full nuclear response to blackmail the US into fighting its war.

No matter what Israel lobbyists will try to tell you, an Israel attack on Iran will be devastating for all parties.  Specific to US interests, if Israel launches a surprise attack, it will leave much of our military unprepared and vulnerable to an Iranian counter attack. The counter attack would likely lead to the US loosing numerous ships to include even an aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf.  Further, wide spread damage to the world’s critical oil infrastructure will no doubt result.  The loss in oil will spike hydrocarbon prices, which will ripple across the global economy.  This shock will be enough to destroy what remains of the US economy and may finally be what destroys the petro-dollar, which has already faltered as the world decouples from the dollar as its reserve currency.  These costs will be immediately realized.  However, the war is not likely to end with just a couple strikes and wars tend to take turns no one predicted once let out of the box.  The worst case scenario would involve other nations joining Iran in the fight against the US, Saudi Arabia, and Israel such as Syria, Russia, and China.  This would be initiate World War III and effectively destroy the northern hemisphere of the globe before the final guns were silenced.

In the ashes of the war, the winners will be the usual suspects (big oil, bank financiers, and the defense industry) plus Sunni Islamic extremists.  Nowhere in that equation will the average US citizen benefit.  Your quality of life as an American will be destroyed if it doesn’t also cost you your life.  America will enter a Dark Age, fracture, and collapse much like the Soviet Union except it will be far worse.  As such, I hope I was successful in explaining why a war with Iran should be avoided at all costs.  However, since powers beyond what you and I can control have already put a war into motion, my recommendation is to prepare for the worst.  Develop the ability to leave the US on short notice, buy land overseas in the Southern Hemisphere, diversify your assets globally, move away from population centers, become self-sufficient, organize with your neighbors, and don’t let your family members serve in the military.  Essentially, I am saying get out now while you still can.  Once the missiles begin to fly, you will be effectively stuck and will have to endure whatever the future holds.


By Guiles Hendrik

April 2, 2015

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