This week’s news that ISIL inflicted a heavy defeat upon Iraqi government forces is no surprise. Whether or not ISIL can hold the ground is yet to be seen, but it sends a strong signal Washington’s strategy in Iraq is failing contrary to the claims of Obama’s paid propagandists. Further, and more ominous for the world, it moves the Middle East one notch closer to an all-out regional war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. As I have predicted for years, this coming conflagration is now a near certainty. At this stage of the on-going proxy war there are simply no peaceful off ramps and it will be a winner takes all struggle. Either radical Sunni extremists aligned under Saudi Arabia or radical Shia extremists aligned under Iran will prevail, which in either case will trigger a global war that involves the US and Israel. For those of you saying, “Good, let them kill each other,” a lesson on the global economic implications of a sudden shut down of oil from the Middle East is in order. In short, outright chaos will ensue.
Those of you that read my work regularly are well aware that I predicted the failure of US efforts to curb ISIL and the fall of Ramadi well over a year ago and the growing regional conflict in the Middle East “years” ago. In fact, even my recent my global updates from April 20, 2015 speak specifically to Ramadi and ISIL, http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2015/04/20/global-updates/. In the brief, I specifically called out the Obama Administration as misleading the US on our “success” against ISIL in Tikrit and said that ISIL had simply shifted its forces south to “Ramadi” where I expected it to achieve success. Below is the exact exert from my forecast.
Iraqi military backed by US and Iran fails to retake key cities from ISIL. Contrary to rosy claims by the Obama Administration, the Iraqi Army has only scored marginal victories against what appears to be a far more dynamic and better led ISIL force. Specifically, government forces were able to seize some key areas around Tikrit, but have so far failed to effectively secure the city. Further, while the Iraqi military was focused north in Tikrit, ISIL has appeared to have shifted its fighting strength to the Ramadi area where it has gained ground in recent weeks. As predicted, the violence and bloodshed in Iraq will continue and grow as long as the proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia continues to burn. As one side gains ground, the other side will bolster its support for its proxy until the conflict has grown so big and so violent it will directly involve its original sponsors. The end result will be a disaster for both the Middle East and the US. Excerpt written by Guiles Hendrik, LastMinuteSurvival.com.
Apparently though, even our best analysts on the inside aren’t getting the word to their bosses and instead, the propaganda presses are again running at full speed. The disconnect between the reality on the ground in Iraq and what the government is reporting is astounding even by the extremely warped government standards of truth disinformation. Specifically, a talking point seems to be “there will be ups and downs in this struggle,” according to numerous brain dead pundits. http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/242374-ex-cia-head-other-terror-groups-more-dangerous-than-isis However, losing Ramadi and all of the military equipment the US supplied to the Iraqi Army in this theater is no small “down.” This is a major operational disaster with strategic implications. This is also a war not a struggle for those not intimately equated with the brutal bloodshed going on in Iraq and Syria. In short, reality dictates that if our strategy was working, we wouldn’t be losing major cities.
I particularly find the quotes from Army General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the U.S. military’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, in a recent Reuters article http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/18/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-dempsey-idUSKBN0O321Q20150518?mod=related&channelName=worldNews demonstrative of the degree of lunacy amongst our political and military elite. For example, he said the Islamic State’s gains in the Iraqi city of Ramadi are setback for Iraqi security forces, adding such setbacks were “regrettable but not uncommon in warfare.” Yes, regrettable and not uncommon for the side that is getting defeated private General. I also love his statement; “Much effort will now be required to reclaim the city.” Really General? Tell me, how much effort was required to prevent it from being overrun? Would that not have been the ideal time to expend said effort respective of your grand strategy? Finally, we get the icing on the cake. “We will continue to support Iraq’s security forces with U.S. air strikes, training, and equipment. Reducing sectarian tensions and preparing for reconstruction will continue to challenge the government of Iraq.” What? Dear General Dempsey, I would recommend and challenge you to immediately employ me pro bono on your senior advisory staff to effect basic reason into your strategy. What General Dempsey stated in this last quote was beyond absurd. Let me get this right…we will continue to do what doesn’t work and expect a different outcome? This is insanity by definition. Further, didn’t we try the training and equipping strategy? Yes, yes, we did and it utterly failed. However, ISIL did appreciate all of the gear and weapons and ammo and tanks and trucks and armor and radios and uniforms we provided them. I also think we did the reconstruction thing too for over a decade and that was a complete failure. See https://www.globalpolicy.org/humanitarian-issues-in-iraq/reconstruction-of-iraq.html. Finally, if you are trying to quell sectarian tensions, pushing a policy where Iraqi Hezbollah aligned Shia fighters along with Iranian advisors launch invasions into predominately Sunni cities isn’t going to go well in the short or long term. Don’t worry though General because U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry’s is even dumber. In response to Ramadi being overrun, Kerry stated it was a “target of opportunity,” that could be retaken in a matter of days. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/18/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-idUSKBN0O20M020150518. I don’t know where to even begin! This my friends is our Secretary of State. Stand in awe, not of his brilliance, but of his utter stupidity.
Okay, now for the “so what.” You need to care because as I stated in the opening paragraph there are no longer any peaceful off ramps to this proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. What the US created in the Middle East is an unstoppable cascade of events that will ultimately lead to a complete reordering of the global geopolitical structure after incredible suffering and bloodshed by millions. By no means will this stay isolated in the Middle East. As this proxy war forces each side to triple and quadruple down on their proxies, the belligerents will be forced to ultimately fight their own war. We have already seen this developing in Yemen, but Yemen is just the tip of the iceberg for what is to come. When this full scale regional war becomes imminent, the US and or Israel will be forced to pick sides and intervene at an unacceptable cost. The upcoming war will cripple global oil production, decimate what is left of the global economy, and set the stage for a generational global instability and chaos as the globe undergoes a complete structural reordering. This period will likely become what historians will look to as the point when our small wars expanded uncontrollably into what will be viewed as World War III and a dark age for the West.
I wish there was a quick and easy answer for how to insulate you from the coming chaos, but there isn’t. However, becoming self-sufficient and not reliant on the grid will go far to ensure you can maintain a reasonable standard of living while others starve. Your plan must include stockpiling of vital petroleum products such as fuel, lubricants, and crop fertilizers, which during any petroleum shortage will become scarce and costly. Further, offshoring your assets and diversifying them into foreign currencies, real estate, and businesses would be advisable. You do not want all of your eggs in one basket. As cash is banded and capital controls are placed into effect, your assets will be frozen and locked into a dying financial system, which will rob you of every penny before it finally dies. Further, I would work hard to obtain a visa or a second passport as a hedge against a collapse in the US. Most of us utterly hate the idea of becoming in effect a refugee, but it is far better to lose your possessions and live than die on a pile of gold. I can tell you first hand that the “refugees” that left places like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria when they first saw the writing on the wall are not only alive, but far better off today than their neighbors that refused to adapt. Finally, although the training will prove valuable, get as far from the military as possible. Those of us trapped within the ranks could very quickly again find ourselves as cannon fodder for the global elite and it is long overdue that we collectively say enough blood of good Americans have been spilt for the elite. Let them fight their own wars. Anyone reading this will certainly have questions on how to undertake the above and I welcome you to email me at email@example.com, subject line, questions for Guiles.
By Guiles Hendrik
May 18, 2015