Russian transfer of S-300 Air Defense System may force Israeli to initiate war with Iran before winter

Over two decades ago, I began warning that United States’ policies in the Middle East could set the US and world on a trajectory for a major war. Unfortunately, every major policy decision the US has made has exclusively served the interests of the global elite to the detriment of humanity. The trajectory set by these policy decisions has moved the world closer and closer to a full blown world war. More recently, I have warned that the Obama Administration was walking a dangerous foreign policy line in the Middle East that if mismanaged, could lead to horrific consequences. Today, it is become blatantly clear to all but the most ideologically blinded that Obama and his amateur staff have chosen incorrectly and created a perfect storm in the Middle East that will likely lead to a full scale regional war. The culmination of these decisions, no matter their motivation, has set the stage for a showdown between Israel and Iran that is now most likely irreversible. This showdown is what I have previously described as the worst case scenario that must be avoided at all costs. The consequences of which will be catastrophic for not just the Middle East, but the US and the rest of the world. As recently as August, news broke that could finally force Israel into unilateral action against Iran, which will pull the entire region and the US into war, collapse the already sick global economy, and usher in the New World Order.

The event I am speaking of is the Russian announcement that it will move forward with the transfer of S-300 Air Defense Systems to Iran. These sophisticated air defense systems are capable of detecting and successfully interdicting aircraft flown by the Israeli Air Force (IAF) as well as ballistic missiles, drones, and cruise missiles. The potency of this air defense system will alternate the current military balance of the region and has Israel on edge. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is convinced, whether correctly or not, that Iran is an existential threat to Israel and is building a nuclear weapons capability. Up until this week, Israel has been comforted by the fact that if worst came to worst respective of Iran’s nuclear program, Israel was capable of launching a strike against Iran that although costly, would be capable of destroying most of its nuclear capability. With the US brokered Iran Nuclear Deal and now no international legal obstacles to the transfer of these “defensive” weapons, it appears Russia is going to finalize their end of the arms deal and provide Iran the air defense system. Of course the fact Iran now has access to billions in frozen assets probably also motivated a financially strained Russia to lift its “voluntary” halt to the transfer, but that detracts from the core issue. The core issue is that Israel now faces a military decision point that will fundamentally alter the course of history. Israel must rapidly decide whether to attack Iran before the S-300 system is operational or gamble its security by completely trusting Israel’s defense to an openly hostile White House that has taken Israeli-US relations to the lowest point in a generation.

The policy dilemma created for Israel by this deployment can’t be understated. Israel knows it must maintain strong ties with the US for its survival and an attack would obliterate this relationship. However, trusting the US and not attacking Iran could ultimately spell disaster for Israel if the US doesn’t uphold its end of the bargain and Iran goes nuclear. The US has assured Israel publicly and privately that it will monitor Iran’s nuclear program, protect Israel, and not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. If true, this is the best case scenario, but it must be as believable as it must be legitimate to maintain peace in the region. Right now, US actions simply do not look credible. The Obama Administration is viewed as extremely weak, untrustworthy, anti-Israeli, pro-Iranian, incapable and or unwilling to effectively monitor the Iranian nuclear program, and unwilling to recommit troops to a major war should Iran fall out of line with the still unknown details of the Iranian Nuclear Deal. Further, Israel is not convinced that the US hasn’t already made a decision to accept the emergence of a nuclear armed Iran and restructure the entire geopolitical makeup of the region. After all, actions speak louder than words and it appears the US is perfectly content making deals with Iran, toppling regimes, and turning its back on old allies. Considering this game board, Prime Minister Netanyahu could well be facing a very difficult decision that will determine the fate of the region and as he sees it, Israel.

I am tempted to diverge on a tangent discussing the political details, special interests, and motivations of the major players to include the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia, ISIL/ISIS/IS, Turkey, etc. so that the mechanics of what is about to transpire could be better understood. However, I fear at this point it would detract from the overarching issue of whether or not Netanyahu will use the S-300 delivery as the decision point for initiating an attack on Iran. As such, I will just say to be cautious because all is not what meets the eye and a review of my previous articles will fill in most of the blanks.

Netanyahu must have a healthy appreciation for how much of an impact the S-300 Air Defense System will have on the strategic balance in the region and his limited timeline for action. It is possible Israel has the means to defeat the system, but it is unlikely. Further, it is even more unlikely that even if Israel has a way to defeat the air defense system it would be able to employ the countermeasure in a manner that would allow for an effective strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Netanyahu’s knows his options are decreasing daily and his time for action may be now or not at all. He has already alienated the White House and any full court press to defeat Obama’s Nuclear Deal will be rightfully viewed as unacceptable Israeli meddling in US national security by the White House (ironically, it was Israel’s meddling in the White House for decades that in large part led to this situation in the first place). If the Iran Nuclear Deal is not defeated in the US Congress (which at this point is likely since Congress ceded its Constitutional powers to the president), Israel will lose almost all political leverage against Iran. Further, any realistic US military option against Iran will be off the table for the near future if the deal is approved. This situation creates a strategic dilemma that would leave Israel praying Obama and Iran can be trusted because once the S-300 system becomes operational, any Israeli attack will become exceedingly costly.

Considering the stakes, Israel’s military has been ordered to actively prepare for an imminent war with Iran that will be initiated by a surprise attack. Only time will tell if Netanyahu will finalize the plans and order the strike, but we do have some clues as to timing. The US Congress has 60 days to vote up or down on the Iran Nuclear Deal. Presumably the clock started July 14th, the day the agreement was formally announced. In my estimation, Israel will not act until it is clear whether or not Congress will approve the bill or not. We also have some clues as to when this attack window will close. We won’t know exactly when the S-300 is fully operational, but the US and Israel will be closely monitoring the situation. Assuming the transfer has already begun, the air defense system could be deployed and operational within weeks to months depending on the aggressiveness of Iran’s deployment schedule and existing technical expertise with the system. My estimate is that Iran will need months not weeks and that it won’t be until December or January that the system is fully operational. As such, Israel could initiate a war with Iran as soon as mid-September and no later than December if it wants to negate the S-300s capabilities. In the event a war between Iran and Israel breaks out, it will be catastrophic with global repercussions. I would recommend anyone prepping be prepared for the consequences of such a war no later than the first week of September. Pray that behind the scenes Israel is given enough assurances that this can be averted. If not, war may be imminent.

By Guiles Hendrik

August 29, 2015

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