Search results for strategy in iraq

US Back to War with Iraqis AGAIN: All Sides Merge to Attack US Troops

al-Sadr Poster. Source: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/para/images/al-sadr_madhi-army_040915-a-3133c-041.jpg

al-Sadr Poster. Source: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/para/images/al-sadr_madhi-army_040915-a-3133c-041.jpg

Those of us that fought in Iraq are well aware of the potent militia force, known at the time as the Mahdi Army, controlled by the Iraqi Shiite Cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.  Al-Sadr is a leading Shiite figure in Iraq and controls a militia with tens of thousands of fighters.  He is also viewed as the leader of Iran’s proxy force inside of Iraq.  Al-Sadr’s fighters at one point during the Iraq War became one of the most potent enemies facing America and inflicted a considerable amount of casualties on the US.  Now al-Sadr is calling again for his followers to attack US forces in Iraq “fighting” ISIL.  His call for war against the “American Occupiers” signals an ominous policy change in Iraq that will result in dead Americans and could trigger another full scale war with the US. (See: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-usa-idUSKCN0ZX0XL )

Al-Sadr’s instructions to attack US troops in Iraq will not go unanswered by his followers.  Unlike other groups in Iraq, al-Sadr’s militia is motivated and well-armed, trained, and equipped.  Read more

Iraq Tells Civilians to Flee Fallujah in Advance of Attack

On a short note, I would like to point out a bit of hypocrisy and genius.  Throughout both wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the US military has been shackled and hamstrung by the necessity to cause no collateral damage.  The theory went that causing any “unnecessary” damage would alienate the population leading to the US losing the war.  Well, at least myself and a few hundred thousand other American servicemen repeatedly tested this and found the theory to be false, but no one at the War College has mentioned it.  In short, worrying about collateral damage only helps the enemy and increases friendly casualties.  Oh, and did I mention we have lost every war that we employed a strategy of limited collateral damage? Read more

Obama’s pick to head CENTCOM testifies his strategy to fight ISIL will be to use the previous failed strategy to fight ISIL. Can it get any worse for the military?

President Obama picked General Joseph Votel, the current commander of U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM), to succeed General Lloyd Austin as the new head of US Central Command (CENTCOM) pending Senate approval. This was a genuine opportunity for Obama to change the strategic trajectory of US failures in the Middle East. However, after hearing Gen. Votel’s comments, I can say without any doubt the man is an incompetent commander that was politically chosen as a policy “yes man.” In short, Gen. Votel does not have a viable strategy to achieve victory and therefore should be fired as a commander, not promoted. Gen. Votel will not be the man to defeat ISIL unless he takes credit for the good work the Russians, Kurds, and Syrians are doing. Even then, I have full faith and confidence that the White House will manage to scuttle Russia’s successes too for the time being. What it means if Gen. Votel is confirmed by the Senate is that you can expect more of the same series of failures and continued perpetual indecisive wars across the globe. I urge every one of you to make it clear to your senators that Gen. Votel is NOT the man for the job or he will be confirmed and you will see another one of my predictions come to pass. Tell your senators we need a CENTCOM commander that will break from the failed strategies of the last 15 years. Congress must know Gen. Votel is incapable of charting a strategy for decisive victory, which our nation requires.

I am sure that some of my readers, which are well meaning, but loyal brainwashed company men of the military establishment, are cussing me for my blasphemy against such a vaunted general. However, I can say that anyone that places stock in military commanders that fail to achieve victory against a force as inept as the Taliban is a qualified idiot. Further, if they are currently serving in the military and support these professed students of what I refer to as a defeatist military strategy, they are suicidal. How weak minded must someone be to buy into the rhetoric that the Taliban are a super human force that would require a generation to defeat? Only by choosing to lose could that be a reality for the US military. This is strategic dereliction and I will not accept it even if the best Army post graduate students are too institutionalized to see the truth. At times, it is far more effective to be tactful in commentary; however, this is a case where blunt honesty is needed because lives will be lost because of this mockery of a commander. Incompetence left to its own devices is forgivable, but I will give no quarter to incompetence that seeks the power to sign the death certificate of a single life.

Gen. Votel was in charge of the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) before taking over SOCOM and should know that our current strategy of training rebels isn’t working unless you are taking into account the number of ISIL and Taliban fighters we armed, trained, and equipped. Gen. Votel’s professional pedigree sounds superb until you consider “brilliant” losers like General McChrystal came from JSOC as well. Don’t get me wrong, I love the superbly professional organization JSOC has become and can say from working with their phenomenal operators around the globe that they are “tactically” the best in the business. However, the special operations cult worship has to end on Capitol Hill. Special operators regularly do take on missions of vital strategic importance, but they do not decisively operate at the strategic level. The distinction is crucial. Special operators are an extremely valuable warfighting tool, but have become the defacto tool for supporting the flawed notion that you can fight a war on the cheap and win decisively with a handful of special operators training foreign armies and rebels. Part of this comes from the fact many special operators trace their roots to traditional Army Special Forces units where their primary “special” mission is training and advising indigenous forces to support COIN and Foreign Internal Defense (FID) missions even if the historical data now overwhelmingly shows the COIN and FID tactics and techniques don’t work. The bottom line is unless said special operators are launching a strategic nuclear strike, the strategy simply isn’t working at a strategic level and over 15 years of failed war attest to this fact. Neither JSCOC nor SOCOM is designed or capable of giving us a decisive strategic victory against ISIL. Only, a through a true total war of attrition will you finally turn back and utterly defeat the Islamic Holy War against the West.

Specific to Gen. Votel’s demonstrated incompetence, in testimony Wednesday before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Gen. Votel told lawmakers that he supports moving forward with a revised effort to train and equip moderate Syrian rebels battling Islamic State militants. Gen. Votel described the “new” approach as a “thickening effort” as opposed to just raising a large force. What that exactly means is anyone’s guess, but this much is clear. This is the same “old” counterinsurgency (COIN) strategy the US has been peddling since Vietnam, which has never led to anything but total strategic failure. This is repeating a failed and completely discredited strategy and expecting a different result, which is insanity. Gen. Votel should know that there are no “moderate” rebels that will effectively challenge ISIL. He should also know that the only effective fighting force has been the Kurds and Washington is about to double cross them again on behalf of the Turks, which will blow back horribly on our anti-ISIL efforts. How, after billions of dollars were spent overtly and covertly on the failed strategy to arm, train, and equip rebels to fight ISIL in Iraq and Syria, can Gen. Votel honestly believe it will be different this time? Even Gen. Austin, the retiring CENTCOM commander, admitted in Congressional testimony the entire plan only trained four of five fighters! Not even Gen. Votel can be this naïve. Only someone that has sacrificed their integrity at the gates of politics would continuing such a ridiculous policy be possible.

Gen. Votel’s testimony did not improve. He went on to testify, “But I do think it is helpful to have people who have been trained by us, who have the techniques, who have the communications capability, and the resources to link back into our firepower.” The trained fighters, Votel explained, present the Islamic State with added “dilemmas.” This is a very disturbing conclusion by the general considering the historical record shows that US trained forces repeatedly failed when tested in battle and also defected in most cases without even a fight. Worse yet, these indigenous forces took all of our training, techniques, communications, and firepower to the enemy when they defected. In fact, based on the US track record, it would be more accurate to say that it is only helpful to our enemies.
Gen. Votel’s lack of integrity and or lack of good sense will rightfully earn him the blame for the failure of US strategy (or lack thereof) in the Middle East against ISIL. Mark my words, Obama has never accepted responsibility for his growing list of strategic failures and isn’t going to start now. Gen. Votel is signing on to a disastrous strategy that cannot work. Obama will hang this around Gen. Votel’s neck just like he has done with nearly every other commander. If Gen. Votel is even a bit savvy as a strategic thinker, he should clearly see that he is being set up as bad as the disgraced General Petraeus and run for the door or get a new strategy right now.

As with most articles I write, I try not to just criticize and point out flaws, but offer solutions. This article is no different. The links at the bottom of this article are a short list of key articles I have written that accurately predicted the progression to the state of affairs as it stands now in the Middle East with regards to ISIL. A key part of those predictions has been to repeatedly warn that President Obama’s strategy was never a “strategy” and would ultimately fail in a very predictable fashion, which has played out exactly as I predicted over two years ago. This should serve as my bona fides for correctly assessing and accurately predicting events years in advance. Second, I have also included an outline of what a real strategy for a decisive strategic victory would look like. I hope that these articles end up in the right hands of individuals that actually have power over policy, but it suffices for now that the public is being educated about the military’s lies. Whether or not Gen. Votel is confirmed, I will continue to extend the offer to step up and advise anyone actually serious about defeating ISIL going as far as staking my reputation to a winning strategy, which to date, no one has had the courage to do. It is time for our senior policy makers to show real courage and leadership by breaking away from the old caste of establishment beltway characters and seek some fresh, independent perspectives because to date, nothing the snake oil salesmen have provided has worked and it never will. Until then, in the least, call your senators and explain that we need a real military commander in charge of CENTCOM and that Gen. Votel should not be confirmed.

By Guiles Hendrik
March 10, 2016

 

http://www.blackboxwire.com/2014/08/30/islamic-extremism-and-what-lies-ahead-part-i-iraq/
http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/10/01/islamic-extremism-and-what-lies-ahead-part-ii-the-war-on-isis-and-syria/#more-699
http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/11/18/update-on-the-third-iraq-war-against-isilisisisaqsyriaetc/
http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2015/11/21/how-to-defeat-isil-civil-military-strategy-101/

How to Defeat ISIL: Civil-Military Strategy 101

It comes as no surprise to my readers that not only is ISIL still alive and well as a terrorist state, but arguably has grown in power since the United States began military operations “against” it.  I have routinely published on the fact that the US has no strategy and its leaders are an amateurish joke.  Further, I have been documenting for years that ISIL was born and bred by the CIA as a proxy to serve elitist interests and therefore won’t be “destroyed” anytime soon.  Since then, not only have senior US leaders such as the former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, General Flynn confirmed this fact, but Russia has called our bluff and has shown in just a matter of weeks how quickly ISIL could be smashed if the US actually had a policy to defeat the terrorist nation.  Now that the truth that the US created ISIL is out in the open source and ISIL has predictably grown out of control, should the US actually decide that wiping out the terrorist army they created would be wise, today I discuss what that strategy would entail.  Ironically, even a very general strategy is far more detailed than anything the US has so far put together.  To illustrate just how incompetent our senior leadership is in this regard, Hillary Clinton recently announced that her strategy to defeat ISIL was to “defeat ISIL.”  Really?  It is a wonder ISIL doesn’t control more territory with such moronic imbeciles at the helm.  In order to help these moronic policy makers and senior military officers, let me lay out a basic strategic plan against ISIL.

To begin, let me dispense with your failed Irregular Warfare (IW) approaches, which policy makers love because they think they can win a war on the cheap.  The historical record is quite clear; IW does not decisively win wars, it creates them.  This distinction in military manuals and training unfortunately is all but absent.  Only through determined deliberate action can a war be decisively won.  Other than in a few niche applications, arming, training, and equipping proxy armies has never been successful.  Cyber-attacks, psychological warfare, economic development, and public relations campaigns are equally ineffective against a violent enemy willing to kill to achieve its goals.  “Winning the hearts and minds” is complete bullshit and always has been.  This fiction only existed in political circles too scared to acknowledge reality and the brutality that must accompany warfare.  Anything short of brutality and violence is not warfare and should never be conflated with war.  In fact, if lesser means are suitable, then they should be exhausted.  Understanding this would be far healthier for any nation and would lead to a far less liberal use of pseudo-warfare, which is every bit as violent, but just dressed up for political spin.  Now that we have dispensed this modern “pseudo-warfare” and IW, which are completely fictitious shams respective of actual military strategies, let’s discuss what a real war against ISIL looks like.  I warn you…anything short of the below will only delay a far more brutal and bloody war that ultimately will be fought indiscriminately anyhow or lead to a decisive defeat for the Christian West.

Defeating ISIL like any other enemy requires a full spectrum approach.  On the political front, Saudi Arabia and Qatar must be prevented from providing any type of material support to ISIL.  In particular, until firm compliance was established, all military sales and forms of foreign aid to the said countries must be immediately ceased.  Turkey must also be immediately reigned in and all economic support via the purchase of black market oil must be halted.  If Turkey continued to purchase ISIL produced black market oil, pressure should be ratcheted up against Erdogan’s administration to include exclusion from NATO and the EU as well as economic sanction.  Turkey must also be forced to accept Kurdish military action against ISIL in Syria by reaffirming their right to defend Turkish sovereign territory against Kurdish terrorist factions such as the PKK.  Israel also needs to stay out of it and stop bombing Syrian positions, which by default help ISIL.  Respective of Russia, the US needs to work jointly with Russia to share intelligence and coordinate their military offensives to achieve the maximum impact against ISIL.  Option B would be for the US to completely stay out of the fight with ISIL, completely cease support to any parties involved, let the primary actors in the Middle East fight it out, and then step back in once the smoke clears.  I can entertain either option, which honestly are both viable, but for today’s discussion, I am going to focus on US intervention. Read more

Update on the Third Iraq War against ISIL/ISIS/IS/AQ/Syria/etc.

US Advisors in Iraq begin training. Source dw.de/Getty/Afp

US Advisors in Iraq begin training. Source dw.de/Getty/Afp

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It should come as no shock to our readers that the Third Iraq War President Obama initiated has already faltered.  As predicted, the strategy (or lack thereof see: http://www.blackboxwire.com/2014/10/11/islamic-extremism-and-what-lies-ahead-part-ii-the-war-on-isis-and-syria/) did not achieve the desired results so now the Department of Defense (DoD), no doubt testing the waters for the White House, is requesting boots on the ground.  As we warned, mission creep is a dangerous thing and would plague this operation.  What started with just a handful of “advisors,” grew into airstrikes in Iraq and then Syria, then over a thousand troops “on the ground,” and now US troop levels in Iraq will soon reach 3,000.  When this new batch of advisors fails to stop the growth of ISIL, expect Obama to retract another “promise” and have “no choice,” but to commit US combat personnel to the fight in Iraq.  Soon, just like in Vietnam, Obama will be steadily sucked into another full blown war in Iraq that the US will neither win nor be able to afford. Read more

The Disintegration of Iraq: US Military Action in Iraq neither Wise nor Suitable

As the hordes of American/Saudi/Qatari sponsored terrorists race across Iraq in what appears to be a blood orgy of Islamic extremism of the worst sort, Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki has appealed for help. Maliki’s forces, to include two divisions of American trained Iraqi soldiers, have broken and fled leaving all of their equipment behind to the attacking extremist army. Although, I believe the takfir blitzkrieg will be blunted once it hits Shia neighborhoods as it presses its advance into Baghdad and initially bypass the city for key oil infrastructure, it is clear Maliki has lost control of what used to be Iraq. In spite of the incompetence of the White House and senior advisors, this occurred exactly as we have been warning and predicted over a year ago.

See:

http://www.blackboxwire.com/2014/03/17/pm-maliki-accuses-qatar-and-saudi-arabia-of-waging-war-against-iraq/

http://www.blackboxwire.com/2014/01/31/the-rise-of-the-islamic-state-of-the-levant-as-iraq-fractures-so-does-the-middle-east/

http://www.blackboxwire.com/2014/01/10/as-we-predicted-syrian-and-iraqi-civil-wars-merge-as-president-obamas-claims-of-a-defeated-al-qaeda-crumble/

http://www.blackboxwire.com/2013/05/12/iraqs-descent-back-into-violence/

http://www.blackboxwire.com/2014/02/05/the-other-shoe-drops-syrian-kurds-declare-independence/

http://www.blackboxwire.com/2013/09/09/al-qaeda-rebels-in-syria-begin-killing-kurds/

http://www.blackboxwire.com/2013/09/09/media-missed-the-biggest-coup-in-the-middle-east-and-it-wasnt-in-egypt/

Now that Iraq has fully disintegrated, the Kurds are now effectively independent, the Sunni areas are consolidated under extremist Sharia rule, and the Shia areas are left relying on Iran to save them from being completely massacred and conquered. This critical juncture has policy makers grappling with whether or not to send in US military support to which I emphatically warn is a horrible idea. I say again, INTERVENTION IS A HORRIBLE IDEA!

Now that Iraq has collapsed, many in the US are demanding the US military again be deployed to defend “gains” previously made in Iraq. These individuals are the same hacks that never fought in a war and led US “strategy” to a complete failure in Iraq and Afghanistan. In fact many of these snake oil policy makers hid from reckless wars like former Ambassador John Bolton and profit handsomely from the industry of war. Further, when one hears Senators Lindsey Graham and John McCain expound upon how the US must bomb the extremist army before it seizes Baghdad, consider these are the same senators that also demanded that President Obama do more in Syria to arm this very same army and bomb President Assad. Ironically, it was Assad that has been fighting this extremist army from the beginning and pleading for help from the international community. Further, it was Russia that warned the US that this army was in fact composed of radical extremists, but we ignored them and called them liars when it was the US that was lying. After all, we knew from the beginning the army was made of jihadists because the CIA’s ground branch is what organized, armed, and trained this army. If you do not see the obvious hypocrisy, bias, lobbyist dollars, and stupidity all wrapped up in US Middle East Policy, you should remove the blindfold now and engage your faculties of logic.

The problem with the logic of intervention in Iraq is multifaceted. First of all, it completely ignores the fact that just across the Iraqi border to the west in Jordan, Syria, and Turkey, the US is covertly and now clandestinely (yes, these are different) arming, training, and equipping these terrorists to fight Syrian President Assad, which I have argued from its covert beginnings could only end bad. Second, to believe an overthrow of Maliki’s government somehow translates to lost gains presumes one actually bought into the White House’s lies and propaganda respective of accomplishing anything decisive in Iraq. The reality is the US was strategically defeated in Iraq and used the hand over and pullout as a face saving maneuver to explain its retreat. I would invite anyone that disagrees with the notion of US defeat in Iraq to attempt to walk through Iraq without being killed, kidnapped, or imprisoned. Note that we will see this strategic defeat repeated in Afghanistan. However, in Afghanistan, it will be to greater American detriment since we are currently planning on leaving 10,000 personnel in that country to be captured in killed by the Taliban when they launch their offensive to regain power shortly after the US reaches the 10,000 level of troops. Third, Iraq refused (to no angst of President Obama, who was looking for an excuse to pullout) to agree to a status of forces agreement (SOFA), which would have provided legal protections to any potential future US forces stationed in Iraq. Without a SOFA in place, US personnel could be tried under Iraqi law. As a soldier that potentially would have to kill an Iraqi in self-defense, the prospect of being tried for “murder” in Iraq made any future garrisoning of troops in Iraq untenable. Finally, it is insane to think that the US can drop a few bombs and stem the tide of events in Iraq. Events have long moved beyond the effectiveness of a few bombing raids. We spent a decade vainly trying to subdue Sunni extremists while simultaneously being attacked by Sadr’s Iranian backed Shia forces. Both sides hate us and have proven they prioritize killing Americans above killing each other. To this end, American intervention would only waste more precious blood and treasure that we can ill afford.

To avoid another quagmire, it would be best to stop aiding terrorists in Syria as a reasonable start. We should then be quite content to let the factions fight it out amongst themselves while reinforcing the Kurds and letting Assad press the extremist army from the west. In particular, the Kurds have access to ample oil, are better fighters than the Arabs, have a functioning government and infrastructure, hold a strategic geographical position and are welcoming of US bases, have proven to be pro-American, and are religiously moderate. The US Department of State, for reasons that in all respects appear to be a systemic ethnic prejudice, has persistently degraded US relations with the Kurds and at every opportunity placed Kurdish interests far below Sunni and Shia interests in Iraq. If there was ever a time to change policy and embrace the Kurds, now would be it. Finally, the US must address and stop Saudi Arabia. Saudi funding is the true catalyst of the Islamic extremist movement. The US has turned a blind eye to Saudi actions far too long and it is time the US demands Saudi Arabia stops the exportation of Wahhabism and capture, kill, and or arrest the senior Saudis responsible for the export of terrorism. Continuing to ignore the Saudi gorilla in the room is tantamount to knowingly fighting the wrong adversary while simultaneously claiming to be confused why they real enemy is still growing stronger and able to attack you. After all, it is no surprise that since the “War on Terrorism” began, Islamic extremism has done nothing but expand and strengthen. Might that have something to do with the fact we are fighting a faux war against the wrong enemy? Mark my words, until someone dismantles the Saudi extremist industry, the threat of Islamic extremism will continue to spread and grow. Radical sharia law is already upon our doorsteps, but for reasons of political correctness, ignorance, and or lobbyist dollars, our government has been derelict to the point of treason addressing the growing existential Saudi threat.

By Guiles Hendrik
June 22, 2014
All rights reserved.

ISIL Takes Ramadi: World One Step Closer to World War

Perhaps if the Iraqi soldiers used ammunition in their M240 machine gun they would have better results against ISIL.  I loved poorly staged propaganda photos.

Perhaps if the Iraqi soldiers used ammunition in their M240 machine gun they would have better results against ISIL. I loved poorly staged propaganda photos.

This week’s news that ISIL inflicted a heavy defeat upon Iraqi government forces is no surprise.  Whether or not ISIL can hold the ground is yet to be seen, but it sends a strong signal Washington’s strategy in Iraq is failing contrary to the claims of Obama’s paid propagandists.  Further, and more ominous for the world, it moves the Middle East one notch closer to an all-out regional war between Iran and Saudi Arabia.  As I have predicted for years, this coming conflagration is now a near certainty.  At this stage of the on-going proxy war there are simply no peaceful off ramps and it will be a winner takes all struggle.  Either radical Sunni extremists aligned under Saudi Arabia or radical Shia extremists aligned under Iran will prevail, which in either case will trigger a global war that involves the US and Israel.  For those of you saying, “Good, let them kill each other,” a lesson on the global economic implications of a sudden shut down of oil from the Middle East is in order.  In short, outright chaos will ensue.

Those of you that read my work regularly are well aware that I predicted the failure of US efforts to curb ISIL and the fall of Ramadi well over a year ago and the growing regional conflict in the Middle East “years” ago.  In fact, even my recent my global updates from April 20, 2015 speak specifically to Ramadi and ISIL, http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2015/04/20/global-updates/.  In the brief, I specifically called out the Obama Administration as misleading the US on our “success” against ISIL in Tikrit and said that ISIL had simply shifted its forces south to “Ramadi” where I expected it to achieve success.  Below is the exact exert from my forecast. Read more

President Trump’s Misplaced Faith in the Generals

Approximately, one month ago, President Trump tasked the Pentagon with delivering him a plan to defeat the Islamic State or IS.  What Trump failed to understand was the same people he tasked to solve the IS problem, were the same people that in a very large way created it.  His trusted circle of advisors not only are all products of an institution with a heavily flawed system of promotion, but collectively failed to deliver a winning strategy when they were in combatant command roles.  What kind of “solution” to IS does President Trump honestly think he will get from a group of institutionalized generals?  Does anyone want to bet it will be a “solution” that requires more war?  President Trump is literally asking “the swamp” to create his war policy and this is a fool’s errand.  Based on a 100% failure rate of our Generals this century, this is unfortunately another juncture where it is very easy to assess with high certainty that the “solutions” President Trump will be presented will turn into another policy disaster.  Both Presidents Bush and Obama suffered this hard lesson.  President Trump needs to trash these recommendations and look at completely different ways of soliciting policy if he is to defeat IS and make America great again.  This article is my attempt to speak truth to power and warn President Trump of the mistake he is making before it destroys his presidency.

Seriously, what is President Trump’s senior staff thinking?  I honestly want President Trump to succeed so I am screaming as loud as I can through my articles not to trust the generals.  Why in the world would someone so adamant about “draining the swamp” voluntarily drown himself with the swamp?  This is a question all Americans need to be asking.  The top military brass constitutes a huge portion of that swamp and are already steering him in the wrong direction.  We already have proof.  Take for a second President Trump’s February speech to the military in Florida.  The major takeaways were that he was going to boost spending and cut checks for whatever the Pentagon asked for.  The military-industrial complex loves this kind of braindead logic, which actually hurts, not helps the military.  It hurts because it paints over having to deal with the real problems while lining the pockets of the global elites.  The problem why the US is getting repeatedly defeated in war after war is not because of a lack of training or equipment or spending.  The US military is getting strategically crushed because it has a critical lack of leadership at the strategic level.  For example, the US has defeated the Taliban again and again in tactical engagements much like the US did in the Vietnam War against the Vietcong.  The equipment and training of the US military is better than any military in the history of man and far better than any contemporary force.  However, the semi-illiterate Taliban, with their AKs hammered out of bumper steel are still strategically whipping the US and all of NATO.  This is exceedingly embarrassing, yet no general has taken the fall for the totally absent strategic plan for winning the war in Afghanistan.  Even someone of modest intellect can understand that the problem isn’t gear or money spent.   In short, the military’s problem is not the gear and equipment; it is the subpar general staff where intellectual dereliction and failure to achieve victory is repeatedly awarded with another star.

Many people are quick to jump to the defense of the generals like Mattis.  He is the “warrior monk” they say.  My personal interaction with the man in Iraq would suggest he is a closet weirdo, which will probably be a big story soon enough in the media, but that is for another time.  In fact, I could care less about his J. Edgar Hoover proclivities if he could win a war, but he utterly failed when in charge of CENTCOM.  For those that don’t understand the organization of the military, wars are fought by combatant commanders, not the Secretary of Defense.  In fact, the combatant commander in many ways is far more powerful than the Secretary of Defense.  As the former CENTCOM commander, General Mattis completely failed to develop a new or novel strategy and continued with the status quo of slowly bleeding our military to death in Iraq and Afghanistan.  The man, when put in charge, did not achieve strategic (or even operational) victory, which is the job of a general.  No excuses Marines; General Mattis failed.  General Flynn also failed and per my previous articles, lacked the integrity and moral courage to stand up to policies he knew were disastrous until after he was no longer in line for promotion and safely drawing his pension.  Rounding out the inner circle, General McMaster, President Trump’s pick to replace General Flynn, doesn’t get a by either.  The man has a solid military record, but as Mattis’ deputy at CENTCOM, didn’t stand up with any objections or profess a different way to do business.  In fact he carried out the same failing policies.  All of these generals failed America.

None of these generals spoke out against the way any of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq were being fought, but instead quietly fought hard to lose them.  What is even more ethically disgusting is their disingenuous blame game.  Apparently, their failures are now the result of political pressure from the White House.  However, not a single one of the generals ever stood up to this claimed secret White House policy to apparently loose.  Not one resigned in protest.  It is worth pointing out that the US military’s success rate in war fared no better under Bush than it did under Obama.  Are we to believe both administrations prevented the military from providing a viable strategy to decisively achieve victory?  I am certain that both Obama and Bush, irrespective of political affiliation, would have been ecstatic to be presented with a real plan to win and end the wars.  The truth is both presidents were misled by the military.  Further, war is politics by other means.  They are inseparable and any general that doesn’t understand that is a poor general.  In fact, there hasn’t been a great general yet that didn’t have to find a way to balance his strategy against the political winds of their time.  Washington, Grant, and Eisenhower all had to make it work to win and that is why they are great.  If President Trump thinks that he, a man that never served in the military or fought in a war or knew what the Nuclear Triad was, is going to be someone immune from the same lies the generals sold Presidents Bush and Obama, he is wrong.  President Trump must seek out completely fresh perspectives and this will require him to dive far deeper into the Rolodex than what “the swamp” has pushed in front of him.

Diving deeper into President Trump’s psyche is dangerous, but I really feel that he has an inferiority complex that most likely is derived from the fact he dodged the draft. While he lied and claimed to be too physically inept to go to Vietnam after playing NCAA sports in college, country boys and urban youth far less physically capable than the young Donald Trump were getting shipped off to die in rice patties.  I think this has weighed on President Trump’s conscience and it should.  Again, I want Trump to succeed, but to deny that he was a draft dodger is the epitome of cognitive dissonance.  Knowing this, it is hard to look at how President Trump has surrounded himself with senior generals and not wonder if this is the way he is dealing with some deep set guilt.  Although the generals are certainly better than the people that previously held those positions, President Trump needs to know that it is a combined team of diplomatic, intelligence, military, economic, etc. experts that create policy solutions…not the Pentagon and the big defense contractors whose fortunes rely on perpetual war.  America has let go of Vietnam.  President Trump can too.

Finally, President Trump’s appointment of generals to his inner circle is going to cause a lot of friction.  Contrary to what many may believe, generals don’t play well with others and especially these generals.  General Mattis and Flynn were known for their caustic attitudes.  General Mattis in particular was effectively fired as the commander of Joint Forces Command (JFCOM) because he was unable to learn the necessary people skills to work as an integrator across the services.  Disturbingly, his current role as Secretary of Defense is very similar to his mission at JFCOM, where he failed spectacularly.  In fact, he screwed it up so badly, the then Secretary of Defense Robert Gates disbanded the entire command.  I don’t know how many of you have previously worked with generals, but the term prima donna comes to mind.  These aren’t the approachable types that like to be told they are wrong for starters and that is a very dangerous thing.  If not bad enough, these are people that have been brought up their entire professional lives to defend and grow their “rice bowl.”  They are rewarded for growing bureaucracy and protecting budgets.  They also are bred to view their peers as competitors literally from their first day at Officer Candidate School where they continuously compete against each other for class rankings and assignments.  This has a place in warfare, but doesn’t mesh well with a tightknit team.  They simply do not know efficiency and how to operate as a team.  Having worked with my share of generals, I think it is fair to posture a guess that the fractures within the inner circle will quickly grow into full scale canyons.

In conclusion, if I could speak directly to President Trump or anyone within his inner circle, I would tell him that as a multi-tour combat veteran that did resign in disgust, I appreciate what he is doing for the military, but that the best thing he can do for it is to be hard on it.  The military doesn’t need money.  The military needs leadership.  If he wants to build morale, don’t give me another rifle; give me a leader that will decisively win a damn war at least once in my lifetime.  The very best thing he can do for the military is to fire a minimum of 10% of the general staff.  This isn’t hyperbole.  The military desperately needs a decimation of its general officer corps.  President Trump should retain some military advisors and staff, but he needs to look to those that actually resigned and left in disgust.  Those are the people that had the sense to see through the lies, propaganda, and special interest cronyism.  There are very good strategies and plans out there to actually win, but IT WILL NOT COME FROM THE SENIOR GENERAL STAFF.  These generals are the swamp and we expect you to drain.  As always, I won’t just point out the failures and problems; I will offer to solve them.  If there is anyone with some sense at the top listening, now is the time to reach out before President Trump is taken down by those he gave misplaced trust.  CPAC is happening this weekend so it would be a great time to get the message out to America’s new leadership that we don’t trust the senior brass at the Pentagon any more than the media.

By Guiles Hendrik,

February 24, 2017

Is a Violent Anti-Trump Revolution Possible in the US?

Most of you have read a lot of articles and reports lately concerning escalating protests and violence across the country.  Many of you are rightfully asking how far this will go.  I have seen a number of reports that essentially dismiss the possibility of an armed rebellion beginning in America.  They are wrong.  People need to wake up.  The United State has already passed through the proto-revolutionary phase and is now involved in an active low level insurgency that has the potential to quickly spread should the proper conditions present.  The question isn’t whether or not a violent revolution could start in the US.  The question is how bad will it get.  Make no mistake; we are at war with a violent, leftist insurgency right now.

Let’s begin with a quick history lesson.  President Obama began his political career in the living room of a domestic terrorist, Bill Ayers.  Read more

Prepper Update of World Events for Week of October 10, 2016

The following summary of recent world events is decidedly negative.  This is not due to overt pessimism as much as the facts are just plain bad.  In fact, I didn’t even include events like the effects of Hurricane Mathew, the attack on our warship off the coast of Yemen, and the assassination of more police around the US.  The world is not getting any safer and indicators are all pointing to things worsening as we move into late fall and winter.  The following are major events you should be taking note of with short comments.

  • Situation in Syria: Syrian government forces backed by Iran and Russia continue to pound Aleppo and are nearing a strategic breakthrough.  All actors in Syria recognize that if Assad is able to recapture Aleppo from the Islamic extremists it will be the beginning of the end for Washington’s terrorist proxies in Syria.  As such, there is panic from Doha to Washington.  The terrorist coalition knows that it is now or never for major intervention, which may force the White House to order direct strikes against the Syrian regime, which undoubtedly will be countered by Russian retaliation.  This creates the potential for a rapid outbreak of a major regional war that could go global.  We have effectively arrived at the point I have repeatedly forecasted would occur in Syria where either Moscow or Washington accepts a massive strategic policy defeat or there is a major war…perhaps both.  This is inescapable at this point.  The best case scenario is if the US backs out by aligning with Russia to defeat ISIL and negotiate a peace deal that leaves the regime in place for now.  This is highly unlikely and if Hillary Clinton is elected, all but impossible.
    • I am forecasting that the US will continue to spread false anti-Assad and anti-Russian propaganda to drum up war sentiment in the US to prepare the public for the announcement airstrikes against Syrian military positions.  If the neo-cons within the establishment get their way the air strikes will happen, but there will be an immediate cost to US forces.  Russia will defend its positions on the ground and engage any US forces that directly threaten Russian lives and interests.  In this event, it is possible we will witness the first combat losses of US Fifth Generation Fighters, which Washington is rightfully terrified will occur.  The loss of these jets will show everyone how much superiority the US has lost against countries like China under Obama.  This will jeopardize the multi-billion dollar acquisition program that has been riddled with corruption, failures, and delays.  As such, it is far more likely Washington will lead with cruise missile and drone strikes that are easier to deny and hide if they fail to achieve their objectives, but are also much less likely to achieve decisive results.

Read more

Prepper Relocation Part IV: The Fatal Error of Relocating to an Isolated Region

One of the single biggest mistakes preppers make is that they buy into the myth that relocating to a small region in the North West corner of the United States is their “best” chance of survival.  As you now know from my previous three articles in this series, this theory is inaccurate and is not based on any sound research.  Further, it causes people to unnecessarily incur significant additional costs and difficulties when developing their preparedness plans. However, what you still may not know is that there is a large body of empirical evidence that repeatedly demonstrates people living in isolated, remote areas are often at the greatest risk during wide spread social chaos and collapse.  Not coincidentally, these people also suffer some of the most hardships.  Therefore, with respect to our contemporary situation in the United States, preppers relocating to Idaho with the explicit intent to escape an oppressive government and or are planning to escape widespread instability during a systemic collapse of the system might very well be signing their death warrants.  Instead, contrary to contemporary prepping strategies, it would be better to be closer if not in the midst of a more densely populated area.

I understand what I just wrote probably sent many readers into anger and shock.  Nonetheless, it is far better to get the right information now then to continue along a misguided path to destruction.  No doubt, some readers will immediately discount what I am about to say because they are blinded by their own preconceived biases.  I cannot help those people.  Thankfully, the majority of my readers are intelligent thinking people that will quickly grasp the conclusions to be drawn from the evidence and modify their preparedness strategies accordingly.  In fact, don’t take my word alone, I invite everyone to conduct their own independent research into our prepping assumptions and disseminate their findings.

My theories seem counterintuitive to the premise that the farther from people you are, the farther from harm you are.  This is because the basic assumptions of this safety distance premise are flawed.  As the theory goes, in the event of a collapse or major catastrophe, being located away from people in a remote, self-sufficient redoubt is your best chance.  I have already discussed why the 300 mile rule is a useless metric and that the notion of a “Golden Horde” of refugees fleeing a city and destroying all in their wake is equally unfounded and completely untrue.  The last pillar of this theory is that being isolated conveys additional survival benefits.  To test it accurately, one must evaluate case studies from around the world and then correctly apply them to a realistic scenario domestically.  Read more

Prepper Relocation Part II: The Myth of a 300 Mile Radius and the Golden Horde

In part one of our series on “Prepper Relocation,” I directly addressed a common false logic amongst preppers that led to bad conclusions regarding why one should relocate to Idaho.  Specifically, I challenged the idea that a bunker was a viable long term survival strategy for a major catastrophe many prep for such as nuclear war.  Simply establishing a second residence in a modern first world location like Santiago, Singapore, or New Zealand offer far better options for survival, both physically and economically, than hiding in a hole while a nuclear war is carried out above you.  Today, I continue the slaughter of the sacred cows and challenge the merits of relocating to a site far from other people.  As I previously discussed, relocation isn’t a subject to take lightly.  It may be the single most important decision a prepper makes and therefore any plan should be heavily vetted before time and money is invested in executing it.  Therefore, one must consider counter arguments to contemporary “expert” recommendations.  By leveraging the information in this series, you will be far better prepared to develop a personalized answer to what truly is you “best prepper place to relocate.”

Contemporary prepper logic states that the farther your relocation site is from dense centers of population, the better.  In fact, the magic number often touted is that you must be at least 300 miles from any major population center.  However, is this really the case?  This is very important because if 300 miles is accurate, it severely constrains your relocation options.  If it is not a valid constraint, then suddenly you have many good options for relocation depending on the specific scenario you are prepping for.  As such, let’s examine what that conclusion is premised upon.  Breaking the theory down, you have two main hypotheses to vet.  The first is that 300 miles provides a necessary and adequate buffer from an urban center.  The second is that from said urban area a horde of starving refugees will emerge and overrun your redoubt.

Let me be the first to tell you neither hypothesis constituting this prepper theory, which to date has been held up as prepper law, is valid.  Read more

Global Updates July 12, 2016: World Chaos is Accelerating

It has been some time since I posted.  I apologize as a lot has transpired over the last two weeks.  To make up for lost time, I am going to give you the briefing points you need to know.

  1. South China Sea dispute heats up.  For those of you worried about the potential for WWIII, we just got one step closer today when the UN committee set up to arbitrate the territorial dispute between China and the Philippines ruled in favor of the Philippines.  Right or wrong, China utterly rejected the ruling and reaffirmed its self-perceived right to continue to economically and militarily develop the region as it sees fit.  This sets the stage for China to walk away from the international community to protect its interests while many smaller Pacific nations like Vietnam, the Philippines, and Japan will feel emboldened to challenge China.  My prediction is this ruling will only fuel hostilities in the region and set the region on a collision course for war.
  2. The spread of superbugs in the US that are resistant to all known antibiotic treatments continues. For a second time in less than a month, colistin resistant E. Coli has been identified in the US.  The strain in question tested positive for the gene mcr-1, which makes it resistant to colistin, a last resort antibiotic.  Per my previous articles (search antibiotic resistant on the LMS homepage), the spread of resistant bacteria is increasing in frequency and could easily hit a breakout stage in the near future.  Once the mcr-1 resistant gene jumps to other resistant infections such as highly resistant Tuberculosis now being brought into the US by the thousands via illegal immigrants and refugees, it is only a matter of time before a true pandemic sweeps across the globe again.  http://abcnews.go.com/Health/superbug-coli-found-time-us/story?id=40488140
  3. Obama is preparing to use wartime (Global War on Terror) martial law powers to ban and seize firearms for “national security.” Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson has been in secret talks with President Obama and other top officials to engineer “gun control” as a national security issue.  The intent, like with nearly every other “Right” under the US Constitution is to suspend the Second Amendment or make it virtually meaningless by using unconstitutional wartime interpretations and rulings of executive powers.  Their plan, like I have detailed repeatedly over the last decade (see: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2015/12/06/the-problem-isnt-islamic-terrorism-it-is-guns-according-to-emperor-obama/), is progressing on schedule.  Obama and his Leftist goons are intentionally inciting division and violence and fully plan to use the predictable violent outcome to justify “federal government” action and emergency powers that restrict firearms for “national security.”  After the events of Dallas and President Obama’s utterly despicable statements, it is clear that this administration is prepared to act as soon as this summer if more violence can be incited across the nation.
  4. Turkey continues to use “terrorist” attacks within its border as cover for supporting terrorists in Syria that vow to kill Americans. It is critical to understand Turkey has been proven to openly conduct false flag attacks against its own citizens to support President Erdogan’s radical agenda.  Most recently, Turkey has suffered a number of major attacks blamed on both ISIL and Kurdish rebel groups, but that is questionable to say the least.  True or not, Ankara wasted no time using the attacks to justify a Turkish military invasion of Syria.  However, the Turkish military has done nothing to destroy radical Islamic groups operating in Syria.  In fact, a closer analysis clearly shows that the Turkish military has instead been used to resupply radical Islamic groups to include the Al Nusra Front and ISIL/ISIS while smashing US backed Kurdish positions.  Ankara is determined to undermine Syrian President Assad and specifically has used its military to push back Kurdish positions in key blocking positions so that it could resupply radical Islamic fighters on the verge of being routed from Aleppo by Syrian forces.  If Syrian forces retake the lost ground and are again about to liberate Aleppo, expect to see another “terrorist” attack inside Turkey that will be immediately used to justify even greater military incursions into Syria to back radical Islamic extremist groups.  As Syria and Russia continue to mop up ISIL positions and approach Raqqa, I fear this could lead to another direct engagement with Russian forces, which could quickly plunge the region into a major war.
  5. US continues to lose ground in Afghanistan. President Obama signed off on increased troop levels in Afghanistan to help combat the Taliban.  In reality, the US completely ceded most of Afghanistan to the Taliban when Obama pulled the bulk of our forces out and our footprint in Afghanistan is getting more and more untenable.  It has gotten so bad, military logisticians plan up front to lose over 20% of any supplies shipped into Afghanistan because of the Taliban.  Further, Special Forces A-Teams are thinly spread across Afghanistan in a vain attempt to train and advise Afghan forces.  This WILL FAIL because the entire concept of training and advising is at best of limited value and at worst, counterproductive, but our brilliant military strategists are too stupid and indoctrinated to recognize the facts.  If a large contingent of forces are not recommitted under competent leadership to Afghanistan, the Taliban will likely begin to capture and hold major cities by years end and begin to directly threaten Kabul on a sustained basis as early as next summer.
  6. Number of US forces continues to quietly increase in Iraq as undeclared war continues. President Obama signed off on additional troop deployments to Iraq to support on-going efforts to recapture Ramadi, Fallujah, and Mosul from ISIL.  Like I predicted (see articles: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/?s=strategy+in+iraq), none of Obama’s faux “strategy” would prove effective and he would again prove to be a hypocrite and put boots on the ground, which he promised not to do.  To date, none of those cities have been completely liberated.  The long overdue offensive on Mosul is again delayed and most likely also going to fail.  At best, Iraqi forces will blast their way through the city, but will find it impossible to root out ISIL elements because the inhabitants of the city “ARE” ISIL.  The Sunni population in Mosul is hostile to the government in Baghdad and isn’t going to change anytime soon unless everyone in the city is killed.  It is important to note that even at the height of the Iraq War, the US military never fully pacified Mosul and was literally fighting in the city as President Obama unilaterally declared our surrender in Iraq.  The bottom line is this deployment of troops is another vain endeavor that will fail because it is led by incompetents.  No further understanding is necessary to KNOW this ends badly for the US and Iraqis.

By Guiles Hendrik

July 12, 2016

To serve in the military today is to swear an oath to destroy America and serve the global elite

Today, I watched as Secretary of Defense Carter gave “a major announcement” that transgender people will now be allowed to openly serve in the military.  As absurd as this should appear to a rational human, this was their “big” announcement.  I admit that I thought for a second this was going to actually be something legitimate the Department of Defense (DoD) was going to unveil like how to win the wars we have been fighting for over a decade and a half.  Rather than waste your time like Secretary Carter, I am going to get right to the important point.  The military is more concerned with pushing radical political agendas and creating special socially divisive rights for the Democrat’s electoral base than fighting and winning wars.  The only way to fix this problem is to utterly abandon the institution.  Whether or not you took an oath to uphold and defend the Constitution against all enemies foreign and domestic, this is the time to start drawing lines.  Fortunately, this doesn’t require anything beyond quite literally doing nothing.  The “most powerful military in the world” can literally be destroyed without firing a shot.  To reign in and stop the DoD we must starve it of human and financial capital until such time that it begs for our return on our terms.  My thesis argument is that only by utterly rejecting the military establishment by not serving or funding it can we fix it.  Read more

Memorial Day Weekend Message: How to truly help veterans according to veterans

I hit my saturation point with the Memorial Day weekend lip service and memorials to those who died “fighting for our freedoms.”  We can argue about previous generations, but the US has not fought a war for “our freedoms” in my lifetime.  The nebulous “War on Terror” has certainly not been about expanding or protecting freedoms and would have been better described as a “War on American Freedoms and Liberties.”  Not a single freedom has been expanded or “protected” by this war.  However, nearly every “right” provided by the Constitution of the United States has been in one form or another attacked, eroded, or outright ignored and flagrantly violated.  As such, today I am going to briefly discuss how you can honor your veterans and how to really help them if you are so inclined.

I am a multi-tour combat veteran and I have had friends wounded and killed in both Iraq and Afghanistan.  Telling the truth, identifying the real enemies, and not parroting patriotic feel good nonsense does not diminish their personal sacrifices or honor.  In fact, I speak for many veterans when I say that we are sick of the rhetoric and would much rather hear substantive discussions about issues that matter.  For example, why after a decade and a half can’t we get decent care at a veterans’ hospital and why can’t all of NATO to include the US, not win a war against some Pashtun villagers.  The military service members I served with are appalled by the political lies and deceit and want justice for those killed and wounded, not lip service.  Stop talking about the ridiculous notion we somehow “liberated” Iraq and brought democracy to the people.  Everyone with even the most basic knowledge of foreign affairs now knows the invasion of Iraq was completely illegal.  The true culprits behind 9/11 and the Iraq War were hiding in the Saudi and US governments and in every lobbying firm and think tank in between.  We want to know why not one of these enemies and traitors respectively were held accountable.  Further, we want to know why general officers were not resigning in mass protest of an obviously flawed and unsalvageable war strategy.  If the “strategy” was so good, why hasn’t it worked?  If it is a viable strategy, then why haven’t we fired the generals that have completely failed to achieve a decisive victory?  If you want to help veterans, demand the truth and accountability while dispensing with the patriotic rhetoric.    Read more

White House Planning to Send Weapons to Libya: What could go wrong?

Our leadership at the White House, CIA, Pentagon, and State Department are unbelievably incompetent, reckless, and corrupt.  I just can’t make this up.  In another example of the absolute rampant stupidity emanating from the White House and Department of Defense, it appears US policy is now to conduct another unsanctioned military invasion of Libya ostensibly to fight ISIS.  Apparently, the US is preparing to provide weapons and training to support select Libyan forces to help them repel the radical Islamic forces Washington previously backed in Libya in 2011.  You read that correctly.  Just like in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria, the US is now arming factions to fight the very same radical Islamic jihadist factions it armed and supported just five years prior.  Watching this train wreck of policy unfold, I can only sarcastically ask, “what could go wrong?”  Read more

Russia sets chessboard for major Middle East war and transition to global dominance with one apocalyptic move

The United States has enjoyed the preeminent position globally as well as the Middle East for the last half a century. Like all empires, the sun has risen and now may be setting on the American century.  This is due in no small part to atrocious leadership and imbecilic foreign policy controlled by ideologues and special interests.  In particular, the US has lost significant influence in the Middle East over the last decade by turning allies into enemies and sovereign nations into hostile failed states.  In the process, the US created leadership vacuums that it was unable or unwilling to fill.  In those voids reentered old actors with Russia leading the way.  With Russia now firmly retrenched in the Middle East, the US can no longer afford to continue with business as usual.  The US must reevaluate its entire foreign policy positions and design a new grand strategy recognizing Russia is no longer a spoiler, but the kingmaker in the Middle East.  Russia has set the chessboard in the Middle East to achieve global dominance in one apocalyptic move.  As such, if there is to be war or peace, analysts should be looking toward Russia. Read more

A Message to the Members of the US Military

Instead of exposing lies and treason within the top tiers of government, today, I am going to simply make a plea to the service members of the US armed forces and those thinking about joining. The message is simple.  If you aren’t in, don’t join.  If you are currently in the service, do what you have to do to survive, bring your troops home safely, and get out.  The missions are garbage, the wars are lies, and you are serving the special interests of the elite, not your nation.  Don’t be a fool and buy into the propaganda.  Contrary to your leadership that sold you out long ago, I actually care about your well-being and the future of this nation.  If I can wake even one person up and save them from being killed or heinously wounded in another unnecessary war, this post was worth infinitely more than the time it took to compose.

The issue of service in today’s military was directly put to me by a mother who asked whether I thought her son should enlist in the Marines. Knowing this lady and her son, I thought long and hard before answering her with a definitive, “No.”  The lady knew that I had spent many years in the military in both the enlisted and officer ranks and had served in combat in both Iraq and Afghanistan so seemed taken aback by my blunt answer.  Clearly surprised, she asked what my rationale was for saying it was a bad idea.  I told her the military was bad enough while I was in the service, but the waste and abuse of the lives of our service members is now at the worst levels since Vietnam.  Our troops are simply cannon fodder for wars the US not only has engineered, but has no intention of decisively ending.  Granted, the equipment and training the military provides is better than it ever has been, but our senior leadership is the worst I have ever seen, there is no will or strategy to win, and our troops are being left for dead in places like Afghanistan for political expedience.  Further, all of our efforts, as honorable as they were, were completely in vain in Iraq and Afghanistan because of the massive dereliction in our leadership.  If our leadership and all of NATO couldn’t even handle the Taliban, what does your survivability look like in the military when the elites pick the next fight with an actual competent enemy like Russia or China?  Until the US military purges its general staff and the country elects a competent Commander-in-Chief, run for the door.

Just today in Afghanistan we lost another American serving with a special operations unit. This makes me sick to my stomach with sadness.  Dropping all of the patriotic propaganda, what did that operator give his life for?  How is the loss even remotely justifiable?  Read more

America is fed up with Obama’s lies: America puts boots on ground in Syria as predicted by LMS

It should come as no shock to our readers that the Third Iraq War President Obama initiated has already faltered.  As predicted, the strategy (or lack thereof see: http://www.blackboxwire.com/2014/10/11/islamic-extremism-and-what-lies-ahead-part-ii-the-war-on-isis-and-syria/) did not achieve the desired results so now the Department of Defense (DoD), no doubt testing the waters for the White House, is requesting boots on the ground.  As we warned, mission creep is a dangerous thing and would plague this operation.  What started with just a handful of “advisors,” grew into airstrikes in Iraq and then Syria, then over a thousand troops “on the ground,” and now US troop levels in Iraq will soon reach 3,000.  When this new batch of advisors fails to stop the growth of ISIL, expect Obama to retract another “promise” and have “no choice,” but to commit US combat personnel to the fight in Iraq.  Soon, just like in Vietnam, Obama will be steadily sucked into another full blown war in Iraq that the US will neither win nor be able to afford.

This introductory paragraph could have been snatched from today’s headlines detailing how President Obama walked back his repeated promises not to put American “boots on the ground” in Iraq. However, it is a verbatim cut and paste from an article I wrote just over a year ago predicting EXACTLY what is occurring.  See: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/11/18/update-on-the-third-iraq-war-against-isilisisisaqsyriaetc/#more-768  Not so ironically, you didn’t hear the radio and talk show hosts and other “enlightened” pundits detailing this foreseeable reality a year ago because they are hacks.  However, today the airwaves have been alive with people taking notice.  Savage, Hannity, Beck, Wilkow, O’Reilly, etc. all have been detailing how the President lied and how the strategy they supported to bomb ISIL has not worked.  I say better late than never to the party, but American’s need to wake up now. Read more

Global Updates: May 29, 2015

-Seismic activity has markedly increased globally over the last few months and 2015 may prove to be an above average year.  Major quakes have struck the Pacific Ring to include the disastrous quake in Nepal.  Just yesterday evening a large quake struck northern Alaska.  Further and I believe most likely related, volcanic activity is spiking globally.   Just this week a volcano in Southern Japan literally exploded while volcanoes from Chile to Hawaii are again spewing lava and ash.  These events tend to go in cycles as fault lines unzip and pressure is released.  One can reasonable expect more events in the coming months and should be on high alert if they live near/on a fault line, near an active volcano, or along a coast vulnerable to tsunamis.  Further, sustained volcanic activity will affect weather patterns and could lead to cooler than normal temperatures for months after the eruption.  Currently, this is not an issue, but if other major eruptions occur this year and are sustained, this will certainly alter the Earth’s weather because the ash gets swept up into the high atmosphere where it spreads globally and reflects sunlight.

http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/erupting_volcanoes.html

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/

http://www.livescience.com/46576-more-earthquakes-still-random-process.html

-ISIL still holds Ramadi contrary to US Secretary of State John Kerry’s stupid predictions last week.   ISIL has now likely outmaneuvered the Iraqi counter attack claiming to have encircled “on 3 sides” the terrorist army.  I am not sure how that translates to “encircled,” but whether or not there was a problem with the Arabic translation, in plain English that means ISIL has a flank wide open to reinforce or retreat through and they likely exploited this gap.  The fact that we haven’t seen an outright retreat of ISIL from Ramadi, which the Iraqi government would quickly publicize, tells you everything you need to know about the facts on the ground.  Further, as the Iraqi Army bears down on Ramadi, ISIL will no doubt maneuver its main element to attack where the Iraqi Army is not in strength.  I would rate it highly likely that Fallujah, Hit, and areas of Baghdad will be attacked whether or not ISIL conducts a tactical withdrawal from Ramadi.  This tactic has already demonstrated it is effective against the slow and unwieldy government forces.  It wears them down, attrits their forces, and demoralizes the government.  The war will only intensify and if ISIL is not dislodged from Ramadi within the next week, it will likely solidify and hold its gains making any future attempts to dislodge them extremely costly for the Iraqi military.

http://www.newindianexpress.com/world/Isil-Sends-Top-Cleric-to-Show-off-Control-over-Ramadi/2015/05/29/article2838802.ece

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/11639414/Isil-targets-Sunni-families-in-Ramadi-with-revenge-killings.html

http://www.thenational.ae/world/middle-east/15-killed-in-baghdad-hotel-bombings

-The US admits Obama’s ISL “strategy” is not working.  Reports also are trickling out of major dissent within the Pentagon.  Further, as predicted, airstrikes have proved of limited value and now the military is saying it needs to commit more troops.  I warned of this predictable escalation back to a full scale war in the Middle East.  Humility truly is a virtue so I take no please in saying once again, “I told you so.”  In fact, last year, I was so disgusted with even the mere use of the term “strategy,” that I wrote an entire piece blasting the Administration and its completely idiotic, non-strategy, that was predestined to failure.  If you truly want to understand why we are failing and Iraq and why it will only get worse as I verbatim described in my analysis, you need to read and share: http://www.blackboxwire.com/2014/10/11/islamic-extremism-and-what-lies-ahead-part-ii-the-war-on-isis-and-syria/.  You can then read the short follow-up to the above article at:

http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/11/18/update-on-the-third-iraq-war-against-isilisisisaqsyriaetc/.

The five minutes you spend reading these two articles will serve as one of the best primers to understanding the escalating crisis in Iraq and the greater Middle East and why we are getting it wrong.  Rather than just calling out incompetents/incompetence in the government, I am going to simply name key individuals that have legitimate influence and ask them to take notes.  Perhaps 99% will never see the article or read it, but if even 1% takes the time to skim the article, progress is being made.  Today, I want to challenge @Phil_Gaskin, who most likely finds my anti-leftist statements blasphemy, but I want to give him the benefit of the doubt.  Perhaps he is the sole voice of reason in the Administration…I don’t know.  What I do know is he is smart enough to read my articles and understand that by adopting what I am recommending would save everyone a lot of heartache and inject some professionalism into what, to date, has been a never ending policy amateur hour of disaster after disaster.  So to you Phil Gaskin, I challenge you to have a sit down discussion about what a real ISIL strategy should be.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/may/28/hillary-clinton-tied-think-tank-bashes-obamas-isis/?page=all

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/05/29/team-obama-shrugs-at-isis-victories.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/rift-widens-between-obama-us-military-over-strategy-to-fight-islamic-state/2014/09/18/ebdb422e-3f5c-11e4-b03f-de718edeb92f_story.html

-The draconian anti-“Patriot Act” is due to sunset this weekend.  Americans that still value their civil liberties would celebrate this law expiring, but have little optimism anything will change.  In fact, it is likely that President Obama will illegally continue the unconstitutional domestic spy programs with or without faux legal authority.  Not only is this extremely hypocritical of a president that ran on returning our civil liberties and ending the spy state, but it will prove just how lawless our nation has become.  Even after the courts and anyone with basic sense determined that what the Patriot Act was being used to justify was utterly unconstitutional; (Specifically, total collection of electronic records without probable cause or a search warrant.) power hungry and/or bought politicians still are trying to make a case for why this law is needed.  I would immediately point out to anyone to be on guard for the “all or nothing” spin.  The Administration is trying to scare people into believing if the illegal data collection is stopped, we will suddenly become vulnerable.  This is absurd.  First of all, NSA’s domestic collection has to date stopped zero terrorists.  Second, if the Administration was actually worried about US security, they would immediately stop importing Muslims to the US from around the world and particularly, from places like Somalia where everyone and their brother seems to be connected to Al Shabaab.  Finally, NSA will continue to operate in its legitimate mission to protect Americans by returning to foreign collection.  It isn’t as if NSA will cease to function and not have a job if they are no longer targeting Americans.  In fact, they may actually become more effective, efficient, and actually gain some victories over foreign enemies of the state.