Archive for Afghanistan

US Moves Closer to Full Scale War in Syria with Russia and Iran

To say there have been a few distractions in the news cycle lately is an understatement.  The establishment (aka: Deep State) will continue to create scandals to mire the Trump Administration in a never ending cycle of chasing his tell to prevent his agenda moving forward.  In all of this chaos, it is often difficult to separate fact from fiction and recognize true news of consequence.  One such important event occurred today when the US directly attacked Syrian government forces in southern Syria.  This event, even more than the previous missile strike, signals the true motives of US intervention in Syria.  These motives can only spell disaster for the US and are laying the ground work to create the context for the US to enter the next stage of the conflict.  As I have correctly forecasted the evolution of this conflict from its very beginnings in Iraq, I can tell you with authority that this doesn’t end with ISIS.  It begins.  Read more

North Korea to use Chemical and Biological Weapons Against the US

Too many Americans are completely detached from the horrors of war as the US has enjoyed an unprecedented period of peace within its continental borders.  The ability to not know war has been a precious luxury enjoyed for a generation in the US, but is now taken completely for granted.  For most, war is just another form of entertainment like sports games and movies.  In fact, to the average person, there is literally no distinction between the Hollywood war movies and reality.  Why would there be when roughly only four tenths of a percent of the US population is serving in the military and far less have actually fought its wars?  This makes it highly likely most Americans don’t even know a vet.  There are many problems with this disassociation.  However, the most detrimental has been that our nation has become so insulated from war they feel that we can kill with impunity around the globe.  Symptomatic of this condition is the apathy Americans demonstrate to our military intervention overseas.  We now allow our nation to blindly blunder into global conflict without even a debate.  Americans have forgotten the actual human costs and the horrors of what a war is like if it comes to our own shores.  This always ends badly and if a war with North Korea begins, we may very soon learn what it is like to see war again on American soil.

Currently, the Trump Administration has overtly entered or continued US involvement in wars in Yemen, Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq without any debate, votes, or justification.  Literally, President Trump has picked a new fight every month he has been in office.  My fear is that President Trump is now setting the stage for an unavoidable conflict with North Korea making him five for five.  Let me be clear, I do not believe President Trump has many options left with North Korea.  However, I fear that he will not chose the best courses of action and it will cost the US an incredibly high price.  I don’t say this lightly.  Conflicts in Syria and Iraq have the potential to spread and end in a disaster for the US in large part because they will financially bankrupt our nation and lead to the wholesale slaughter of millions of innocent people.  However, the US has not fought a war since WWII where the adversary had the ability to attack the US mainland.  Am I suggesting North Korea has the ability to physically invade the US and pelt of with missiles?  No.  In fact, North Korea does not have that ability at all.  However, North Korea has the ability to asymmetrically attack the US with some of the most horrendous weapons known to man and you need to be prepared.

War with North Korea is looking more and more inevitable.  Neither side is willing to back down.  If there is to be war, even the best case is still horrible.  The best case would be a surprise US nuclear strike against the North Korean regime and its military installations ending the war quickly and with minimal US and allied casualties.  A far uglier picture emerges if the Trump Administration opted for, even if just initially, a conventional option.  Using conventional weapons would allow North Korea time to deploy not just its conventional weapons, but its chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons.  This would almost guarantee Seoul would be reduced to rubble and tens of thousands of American and South Korean casualties would be incurred within the first 24-48 hours of the conflict.  If the US and South Korean troops had to conventionally fight the entire war, we would be looking at close to a million casualties and our nation utterly bankrupted by the conflict.  Further, this is assuming China doesn’t enter the war, which would truly make it a WWIII endgame scenario and this isn’t at all unlikely.

However, irrespective of the financial cost and the massive loss of life associated with a war in North Korea, Americans, have in their comforts, become totally ignorant of the fact that North Korea has planned for and put in place numerous asymmetric means to attack the US.  To be blunt, North Korea is prepared to attack the US homeland in horrific ways should war break out.  In particular, over the course of time, North Korea is rumored to have smuggled via diplomatic pouches numerous biological and chemical weapons into the US through its United Nations mission in New York.  Disturbingly, once the technology to produce these types of weapons is achieved, and North Korea has achieved it, these weapons are relatively easy to smuggle and very difficult to track.  Adding to the problem is that a very small amount of these weapons can inflict large number of casualties.  If true, literally every city in the US could be simultaneously attacked with a full range of biological and chemical weapons.  In particular, North Korea is already believed to have smuggled VX nerve agent into a foreign country and used it to assassinate a political rival.  In larger quantities, VX could be dispersed over crowded areas to inflict large numbers of casualties and to create massive panic in cities like New York and Washington, DC.  If not bad enough, a far scarier threat exists.  North Korea is believed to have been mass producing anthrax and has likely mass produced other biological weapons such as smallpox, francisella tularensis, and hemorrhagic fever virus.  Any one of these agents could be released in densely populated areas and cause a massive number of deaths.  Finally, North Korea may have the ability to detonate a space based nuclear weapon over the US releasing an EMP capable of blacking out a large portion of the North American grid.  I consider this scenario less likely due to North Korea’s technological challenges and US countermeasures; however, if China becomes involved, the probability of this scenario is 100%.  Should that event occur, the US will effectively be destroyed.  Before the grid could be rebuilt, some congressional studies estimate that two-thirds of the US population or approximately 200,000,000 people would die.  Not even our grandchildren will live to see the US recover from this type of attack.  Let that sink in for a moment.  The war that President Trump is about to start has the potential to destroy the US.

If what I have just written didn’t scare the hell out of you, you are completely disassociated with reality and need professional help.  I am not trying to create panic and I do not subscribe to fear mongering.  Unfortunately, reality isn’t always pretty and as much as we would like to deny the uncomfortable, it is critical we recognize threats and dangers.  North Korea is a very big threat and far more dangerous than Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan combined.  Remember, President Bush believed Afghanistan was going to be a quick war against some illiterate savages, but over a decade and a half later, we are still mired in his war we have already strategically lost.  Iraq proved to be another example of Washington’s hubris and overly optimistic military predictions.  In fact, the history of warfare demonstrates that in nearly every case, wars prove to be much longer, tougher, and more costly than predicted.  Why would anyone think North Korea will be a war any less costly when all indicators say the exact opposite?  I am curious because as I type, no fewer than three American aircraft carrier battle groups are steaming towards the Korean Peninsula prepared for a military showdown and nearly no one aside from Ron Paul is urging restraint.  I think the answer is that Americans are living in ignorance and have no concept of the hell this war will most likely bring to our lives.  Again, war with North Korea may be unavoidable, but we need to have a national discussion and the homeland must be prepared for the consequences.

As with all articles, I don’t just point out the problems.  I offer solutions.  In this case, the truth is you and I aren’t going to change a damn thing.  All we can control is our actions and to a limited degree help those around us.  Ideally, now may be a good time to literally leave the US for an extended vacation that lasts until either the war is over or North Korea backs down.  I don’t make this recommendation lightly.  However, for those that can’t leave or opt to stay, you need to prep your chem/bio response kits.  Everyone in your group now should be at minimum carrying a protective mask with new filter in day bags.  If you have antidote kits for nerve agents and decon kits for blister agents, those should also be packed and make sure you know how to use them.  You should also have antibiotics ready for a biological attack involving a bacterial agent like anthrax.  However, if the bio weapon is viral, we are looking at an untreatable megadeath situation and the only real option is to completely isolate your group from all other people until the virus has burned itself out.  Wherever you plan to stay, make sure you have an area prepped with provisions and the ability to seal it from the outside with plastic and duct tape at minimum.  You also should have enough chem/bio suits prepared for everyone in your group to at least bug out from the hot zone.  If you are driving to work, you should have at least one complete suit in your vehicle and a contingency link up plan for everyone else in your group.  Listen to me; you need to do this immediately.  A war with North Korea is hopefully avoidable, but literally could be launched at any moment in the coming days to weeks.

As for preparations beyond immediate survival, you need to get as much cash on hand as you can withdraw from the banks.  If you have the ability to move money to overseas bank accounts, do it now.  If you are invested in stocks, you should consider taking profits now and holding them until this crisis passes.  Once the market crashes, feel free to re-enter the market and buy up the cheap stocks.  This will lead to a market shock and crash if a war breaks out.  However, some stocks will likely sky rocket in value.  I am personally seeking out companies that specialize in radiological decontamination and chem/bio defenses to invest in.  Call it Machiavellian, but a crisis always presents opportunities for those with the foresight to position themselves to seize it.  Make sure that person is you.  In the interim, please take some basic precautions.  I pray for the best, but will be preparing for the worst.  We will be very blessed indeed if we can get through this crisis with the homeland unscathed.

By Guiles Hendrik

April 17, 2017

The Price You Will Pay for Trump Dumping the Iran Nuclear Deal

Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades Support Fight Against IS in Iraq.  Source: http://thefederalist-gary.blogspot.com/2015/05/hezbollah-brigades-lead-iraqi.html

Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades Support Fight Against IS in Iraq. Source: http://thefederalist-gary.blogspot.com/2015/05/hezbollah-brigades-lead-iraqi.html

The current “deal” with Iran over its nuclear program is better defined as policy capitulation.  To be viable, the deal must have teeth and achieve the endstate desired by the United States.  The current “deal” with Iran is neither and ultimately does not stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.  Therefore, a renegotiation of the treaty is necessary to avoid war.  However, war may still be the inevitable result of either doing nothing or trying to force a renegotiation the Iranians are unwilling to engage in.  If Iran continues to get closer to a nuclear weapon, there will be a major war irrespective of whether or not the US wants it.  Further, if Iran feels cornered, it may simply refuse to renegotiate anything and regionally retaliate against US pressure leading to a military engagement.  Iran isn’t a paper tiger and has the ability cause the US significant problems if we do drive a hard bargain.  Donald Trump will need to understand this in finite detail or the US will pay in blood and treasure abroad and at home. Read more

Prepper Update of World Events for Week of October 10, 2016

The following summary of recent world events is decidedly negative.  This is not due to overt pessimism as much as the facts are just plain bad.  In fact, I didn’t even include events like the effects of Hurricane Mathew, the attack on our warship off the coast of Yemen, and the assassination of more police around the US.  The world is not getting any safer and indicators are all pointing to things worsening as we move into late fall and winter.  The following are major events you should be taking note of with short comments.

  • Situation in Syria: Syrian government forces backed by Iran and Russia continue to pound Aleppo and are nearing a strategic breakthrough.  All actors in Syria recognize that if Assad is able to recapture Aleppo from the Islamic extremists it will be the beginning of the end for Washington’s terrorist proxies in Syria.  As such, there is panic from Doha to Washington.  The terrorist coalition knows that it is now or never for major intervention, which may force the White House to order direct strikes against the Syrian regime, which undoubtedly will be countered by Russian retaliation.  This creates the potential for a rapid outbreak of a major regional war that could go global.  We have effectively arrived at the point I have repeatedly forecasted would occur in Syria where either Moscow or Washington accepts a massive strategic policy defeat or there is a major war…perhaps both.  This is inescapable at this point.  The best case scenario is if the US backs out by aligning with Russia to defeat ISIL and negotiate a peace deal that leaves the regime in place for now.  This is highly unlikely and if Hillary Clinton is elected, all but impossible.
    • I am forecasting that the US will continue to spread false anti-Assad and anti-Russian propaganda to drum up war sentiment in the US to prepare the public for the announcement airstrikes against Syrian military positions.  If the neo-cons within the establishment get their way the air strikes will happen, but there will be an immediate cost to US forces.  Russia will defend its positions on the ground and engage any US forces that directly threaten Russian lives and interests.  In this event, it is possible we will witness the first combat losses of US Fifth Generation Fighters, which Washington is rightfully terrified will occur.  The loss of these jets will show everyone how much superiority the US has lost against countries like China under Obama.  This will jeopardize the multi-billion dollar acquisition program that has been riddled with corruption, failures, and delays.  As such, it is far more likely Washington will lead with cruise missile and drone strikes that are easier to deny and hide if they fail to achieve their objectives, but are also much less likely to achieve decisive results.

Read more

Prepper Relocation Part IV: The Fatal Error of Relocating to an Isolated Region

One of the single biggest mistakes preppers make is that they buy into the myth that relocating to a small region in the North West corner of the United States is their “best” chance of survival.  As you now know from my previous three articles in this series, this theory is inaccurate and is not based on any sound research.  Further, it causes people to unnecessarily incur significant additional costs and difficulties when developing their preparedness plans. However, what you still may not know is that there is a large body of empirical evidence that repeatedly demonstrates people living in isolated, remote areas are often at the greatest risk during wide spread social chaos and collapse.  Not coincidentally, these people also suffer some of the most hardships.  Therefore, with respect to our contemporary situation in the United States, preppers relocating to Idaho with the explicit intent to escape an oppressive government and or are planning to escape widespread instability during a systemic collapse of the system might very well be signing their death warrants.  Instead, contrary to contemporary prepping strategies, it would be better to be closer if not in the midst of a more densely populated area.

I understand what I just wrote probably sent many readers into anger and shock.  Nonetheless, it is far better to get the right information now then to continue along a misguided path to destruction.  No doubt, some readers will immediately discount what I am about to say because they are blinded by their own preconceived biases.  I cannot help those people.  Thankfully, the majority of my readers are intelligent thinking people that will quickly grasp the conclusions to be drawn from the evidence and modify their preparedness strategies accordingly.  In fact, don’t take my word alone, I invite everyone to conduct their own independent research into our prepping assumptions and disseminate their findings.

My theories seem counterintuitive to the premise that the farther from people you are, the farther from harm you are.  This is because the basic assumptions of this safety distance premise are flawed.  As the theory goes, in the event of a collapse or major catastrophe, being located away from people in a remote, self-sufficient redoubt is your best chance.  I have already discussed why the 300 mile rule is a useless metric and that the notion of a “Golden Horde” of refugees fleeing a city and destroying all in their wake is equally unfounded and completely untrue.  The last pillar of this theory is that being isolated conveys additional survival benefits.  To test it accurately, one must evaluate case studies from around the world and then correctly apply them to a realistic scenario domestically.  Read more

Global Updates July 12, 2016: World Chaos is Accelerating

It has been some time since I posted.  I apologize as a lot has transpired over the last two weeks.  To make up for lost time, I am going to give you the briefing points you need to know.

  1. South China Sea dispute heats up.  For those of you worried about the potential for WWIII, we just got one step closer today when the UN committee set up to arbitrate the territorial dispute between China and the Philippines ruled in favor of the Philippines.  Right or wrong, China utterly rejected the ruling and reaffirmed its self-perceived right to continue to economically and militarily develop the region as it sees fit.  This sets the stage for China to walk away from the international community to protect its interests while many smaller Pacific nations like Vietnam, the Philippines, and Japan will feel emboldened to challenge China.  My prediction is this ruling will only fuel hostilities in the region and set the region on a collision course for war.
  2. The spread of superbugs in the US that are resistant to all known antibiotic treatments continues. For a second time in less than a month, colistin resistant E. Coli has been identified in the US.  The strain in question tested positive for the gene mcr-1, which makes it resistant to colistin, a last resort antibiotic.  Per my previous articles (search antibiotic resistant on the LMS homepage), the spread of resistant bacteria is increasing in frequency and could easily hit a breakout stage in the near future.  Once the mcr-1 resistant gene jumps to other resistant infections such as highly resistant Tuberculosis now being brought into the US by the thousands via illegal immigrants and refugees, it is only a matter of time before a true pandemic sweeps across the globe again.  http://abcnews.go.com/Health/superbug-coli-found-time-us/story?id=40488140
  3. Obama is preparing to use wartime (Global War on Terror) martial law powers to ban and seize firearms for “national security.” Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson has been in secret talks with President Obama and other top officials to engineer “gun control” as a national security issue.  The intent, like with nearly every other “Right” under the US Constitution is to suspend the Second Amendment or make it virtually meaningless by using unconstitutional wartime interpretations and rulings of executive powers.  Their plan, like I have detailed repeatedly over the last decade (see: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2015/12/06/the-problem-isnt-islamic-terrorism-it-is-guns-according-to-emperor-obama/), is progressing on schedule.  Obama and his Leftist goons are intentionally inciting division and violence and fully plan to use the predictable violent outcome to justify “federal government” action and emergency powers that restrict firearms for “national security.”  After the events of Dallas and President Obama’s utterly despicable statements, it is clear that this administration is prepared to act as soon as this summer if more violence can be incited across the nation.
  4. Turkey continues to use “terrorist” attacks within its border as cover for supporting terrorists in Syria that vow to kill Americans. It is critical to understand Turkey has been proven to openly conduct false flag attacks against its own citizens to support President Erdogan’s radical agenda.  Most recently, Turkey has suffered a number of major attacks blamed on both ISIL and Kurdish rebel groups, but that is questionable to say the least.  True or not, Ankara wasted no time using the attacks to justify a Turkish military invasion of Syria.  However, the Turkish military has done nothing to destroy radical Islamic groups operating in Syria.  In fact, a closer analysis clearly shows that the Turkish military has instead been used to resupply radical Islamic groups to include the Al Nusra Front and ISIL/ISIS while smashing US backed Kurdish positions.  Ankara is determined to undermine Syrian President Assad and specifically has used its military to push back Kurdish positions in key blocking positions so that it could resupply radical Islamic fighters on the verge of being routed from Aleppo by Syrian forces.  If Syrian forces retake the lost ground and are again about to liberate Aleppo, expect to see another “terrorist” attack inside Turkey that will be immediately used to justify even greater military incursions into Syria to back radical Islamic extremist groups.  As Syria and Russia continue to mop up ISIL positions and approach Raqqa, I fear this could lead to another direct engagement with Russian forces, which could quickly plunge the region into a major war.
  5. US continues to lose ground in Afghanistan. President Obama signed off on increased troop levels in Afghanistan to help combat the Taliban.  In reality, the US completely ceded most of Afghanistan to the Taliban when Obama pulled the bulk of our forces out and our footprint in Afghanistan is getting more and more untenable.  It has gotten so bad, military logisticians plan up front to lose over 20% of any supplies shipped into Afghanistan because of the Taliban.  Further, Special Forces A-Teams are thinly spread across Afghanistan in a vain attempt to train and advise Afghan forces.  This WILL FAIL because the entire concept of training and advising is at best of limited value and at worst, counterproductive, but our brilliant military strategists are too stupid and indoctrinated to recognize the facts.  If a large contingent of forces are not recommitted under competent leadership to Afghanistan, the Taliban will likely begin to capture and hold major cities by years end and begin to directly threaten Kabul on a sustained basis as early as next summer.
  6. Number of US forces continues to quietly increase in Iraq as undeclared war continues. President Obama signed off on additional troop deployments to Iraq to support on-going efforts to recapture Ramadi, Fallujah, and Mosul from ISIL.  Like I predicted (see articles: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/?s=strategy+in+iraq), none of Obama’s faux “strategy” would prove effective and he would again prove to be a hypocrite and put boots on the ground, which he promised not to do.  To date, none of those cities have been completely liberated.  The long overdue offensive on Mosul is again delayed and most likely also going to fail.  At best, Iraqi forces will blast their way through the city, but will find it impossible to root out ISIL elements because the inhabitants of the city “ARE” ISIL.  The Sunni population in Mosul is hostile to the government in Baghdad and isn’t going to change anytime soon unless everyone in the city is killed.  It is important to note that even at the height of the Iraq War, the US military never fully pacified Mosul and was literally fighting in the city as President Obama unilaterally declared our surrender in Iraq.  The bottom line is this deployment of troops is another vain endeavor that will fail because it is led by incompetents.  No further understanding is necessary to KNOW this ends badly for the US and Iraqis.

By Guiles Hendrik

July 12, 2016

To serve in the military today is to swear an oath to destroy America and serve the global elite

Today, I watched as Secretary of Defense Carter gave “a major announcement” that transgender people will now be allowed to openly serve in the military.  As absurd as this should appear to a rational human, this was their “big” announcement.  I admit that I thought for a second this was going to actually be something legitimate the Department of Defense (DoD) was going to unveil like how to win the wars we have been fighting for over a decade and a half.  Rather than waste your time like Secretary Carter, I am going to get right to the important point.  The military is more concerned with pushing radical political agendas and creating special socially divisive rights for the Democrat’s electoral base than fighting and winning wars.  The only way to fix this problem is to utterly abandon the institution.  Whether or not you took an oath to uphold and defend the Constitution against all enemies foreign and domestic, this is the time to start drawing lines.  Fortunately, this doesn’t require anything beyond quite literally doing nothing.  The “most powerful military in the world” can literally be destroyed without firing a shot.  To reign in and stop the DoD we must starve it of human and financial capital until such time that it begs for our return on our terms.  My thesis argument is that only by utterly rejecting the military establishment by not serving or funding it can we fix it.  Read more

Memorial Day Weekend Message: How to truly help veterans according to veterans

I hit my saturation point with the Memorial Day weekend lip service and memorials to those who died “fighting for our freedoms.”  We can argue about previous generations, but the US has not fought a war for “our freedoms” in my lifetime.  The nebulous “War on Terror” has certainly not been about expanding or protecting freedoms and would have been better described as a “War on American Freedoms and Liberties.”  Not a single freedom has been expanded or “protected” by this war.  However, nearly every “right” provided by the Constitution of the United States has been in one form or another attacked, eroded, or outright ignored and flagrantly violated.  As such, today I am going to briefly discuss how you can honor your veterans and how to really help them if you are so inclined.

I am a multi-tour combat veteran and I have had friends wounded and killed in both Iraq and Afghanistan.  Telling the truth, identifying the real enemies, and not parroting patriotic feel good nonsense does not diminish their personal sacrifices or honor.  In fact, I speak for many veterans when I say that we are sick of the rhetoric and would much rather hear substantive discussions about issues that matter.  For example, why after a decade and a half can’t we get decent care at a veterans’ hospital and why can’t all of NATO to include the US, not win a war against some Pashtun villagers.  The military service members I served with are appalled by the political lies and deceit and want justice for those killed and wounded, not lip service.  Stop talking about the ridiculous notion we somehow “liberated” Iraq and brought democracy to the people.  Everyone with even the most basic knowledge of foreign affairs now knows the invasion of Iraq was completely illegal.  The true culprits behind 9/11 and the Iraq War were hiding in the Saudi and US governments and in every lobbying firm and think tank in between.  We want to know why not one of these enemies and traitors respectively were held accountable.  Further, we want to know why general officers were not resigning in mass protest of an obviously flawed and unsalvageable war strategy.  If the “strategy” was so good, why hasn’t it worked?  If it is a viable strategy, then why haven’t we fired the generals that have completely failed to achieve a decisive victory?  If you want to help veterans, demand the truth and accountability while dispensing with the patriotic rhetoric.    Read more

White House Planning to Send Weapons to Libya: What could go wrong?

Our leadership at the White House, CIA, Pentagon, and State Department are unbelievably incompetent, reckless, and corrupt.  I just can’t make this up.  In another example of the absolute rampant stupidity emanating from the White House and Department of Defense, it appears US policy is now to conduct another unsanctioned military invasion of Libya ostensibly to fight ISIS.  Apparently, the US is preparing to provide weapons and training to support select Libyan forces to help them repel the radical Islamic forces Washington previously backed in Libya in 2011.  You read that correctly.  Just like in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria, the US is now arming factions to fight the very same radical Islamic jihadist factions it armed and supported just five years prior.  Watching this train wreck of policy unfold, I can only sarcastically ask, “what could go wrong?”  Read more

A Message to the Members of the US Military

Instead of exposing lies and treason within the top tiers of government, today, I am going to simply make a plea to the service members of the US armed forces and those thinking about joining. The message is simple.  If you aren’t in, don’t join.  If you are currently in the service, do what you have to do to survive, bring your troops home safely, and get out.  The missions are garbage, the wars are lies, and you are serving the special interests of the elite, not your nation.  Don’t be a fool and buy into the propaganda.  Contrary to your leadership that sold you out long ago, I actually care about your well-being and the future of this nation.  If I can wake even one person up and save them from being killed or heinously wounded in another unnecessary war, this post was worth infinitely more than the time it took to compose.

The issue of service in today’s military was directly put to me by a mother who asked whether I thought her son should enlist in the Marines. Knowing this lady and her son, I thought long and hard before answering her with a definitive, “No.”  The lady knew that I had spent many years in the military in both the enlisted and officer ranks and had served in combat in both Iraq and Afghanistan so seemed taken aback by my blunt answer.  Clearly surprised, she asked what my rationale was for saying it was a bad idea.  I told her the military was bad enough while I was in the service, but the waste and abuse of the lives of our service members is now at the worst levels since Vietnam.  Our troops are simply cannon fodder for wars the US not only has engineered, but has no intention of decisively ending.  Granted, the equipment and training the military provides is better than it ever has been, but our senior leadership is the worst I have ever seen, there is no will or strategy to win, and our troops are being left for dead in places like Afghanistan for political expedience.  Further, all of our efforts, as honorable as they were, were completely in vain in Iraq and Afghanistan because of the massive dereliction in our leadership.  If our leadership and all of NATO couldn’t even handle the Taliban, what does your survivability look like in the military when the elites pick the next fight with an actual competent enemy like Russia or China?  Until the US military purges its general staff and the country elects a competent Commander-in-Chief, run for the door.

Just today in Afghanistan we lost another American serving with a special operations unit. This makes me sick to my stomach with sadness.  Dropping all of the patriotic propaganda, what did that operator give his life for?  How is the loss even remotely justifiable?  Read more

One Step Closer to Major Middle Eastern War between Iran and Saudi Arabia

Readers of Last Minute Survival are well aware that I have been correctly predicting for years the progression of events in the Middle East toward a total regional conflagration. Speaking broadly of a few key events, I predicted the rise of ISIL, the spread of the “civil war in Syria” to Iraq, and the proxy war between Saudi Arabia (Sunni) and Iran (Shia) going hot.  The execution of a prominent dissident Shiite cleric in Saudi Arabia just took this conflict one notch closer to a total war, which the United States is not prepared.  The brewing war has triggered a nuclear arms race in the Middle East and it now appears averting a massive war will not be possible.  The only question is how to best mitigate the damage.

This escalation has not been fully appreciated in the US and in fact seems to have been discounted by the US Department of State, which will certainly be “surprised” when both countries begin to mobilize their militaries. Both nations are now moving toward a war footing, which has initiated a secret nuclear arms race in the Middle East.  Iran knows Saudi Arabia has a far more modern military and the backing of the United States, the Gulf Coast Countries, and possibly Israel, Turkey, and Pakistan.  Iran is also threatened by Saudi backed Sunni extremists fighting to overthrow its allies to the west in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon while being boxed in by another Saudi backed Sunni extremist group, the Taliban, to its east in Afghanistan.  Iran knows Pakistan has agreed to supply Saudi Arabia with nuclear weapons.  Iran’s generals are not stupid and assess that they must obtain nuclear weapons if they have any hope of successfully defending Iran.  They are also racing to improve their anti-access and missile technologies to thwart any type of amphibious invasion from the US while effectively being able to attack Saudi Arabia’s water and oil installations from afar.  Further, as I have warned, Iran has been racing to operationally deploy advanced, Russian, S-300 air defense systems, which will effectively deny Iranian airspace to all but 5th Generation fighter/attack aircraft.

As overwhelming as the odds may seem to Iran, Saudi Arabia is justifiably terrified of a powerful Iran. What Iran lacks in high tech military hardware, it has in willpower and individual fighting capability, which will prove far more potent than anything the Saudis can muster for a war.  Those of us that have worked with the Saudi military know that the Saudi military is a paper tiger.  The Saudis are lazy and incompetent as warriors, but they have a big checkbook that keeps the US military industrial complex in business.  This keeps Washington and the Pentagon from ever effectively addressing the issue, which will become brutally apparent when a direct conflict between the nations breaks out.  In a head to head fight, Iran’s fighters are better trained, better organized, and far more motivated than even the best Saudi units.  In fact, aside from perhaps Jordan, the Arab armies are a joke.  Most are probably more likely to shoot each other (intentionally or not) before ever fielding an effective force against an enemy.  Further, although Iran has proven its ability to project forces beyond its borders successfully, and would no doubt use Iraq as a staging area for a land invasion of Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia has no such force projection capability.  Without the ability to actually invade and defeat Iran, Saudi Arabia could only at best win a partial victory over Iran.  As such, Saudi Arabia must rely on buying off Washington to intervene and fight its war with American troops and treasure.  The Pentagon at least gets this, but what isn’t well understood by either the generals or the White House is that the Saudi backup plan if Washington bulks is to have a credible nuclear weapons capability that they will use if Washington won’t act.  The US is totally unprepared for and to date has no policy to even remotely address.  Read more

America is fed up with Obama’s lies: America puts boots on ground in Syria as predicted by LMS

It should come as no shock to our readers that the Third Iraq War President Obama initiated has already faltered.  As predicted, the strategy (or lack thereof see: http://www.blackboxwire.com/2014/10/11/islamic-extremism-and-what-lies-ahead-part-ii-the-war-on-isis-and-syria/) did not achieve the desired results so now the Department of Defense (DoD), no doubt testing the waters for the White House, is requesting boots on the ground.  As we warned, mission creep is a dangerous thing and would plague this operation.  What started with just a handful of “advisors,” grew into airstrikes in Iraq and then Syria, then over a thousand troops “on the ground,” and now US troop levels in Iraq will soon reach 3,000.  When this new batch of advisors fails to stop the growth of ISIL, expect Obama to retract another “promise” and have “no choice,” but to commit US combat personnel to the fight in Iraq.  Soon, just like in Vietnam, Obama will be steadily sucked into another full blown war in Iraq that the US will neither win nor be able to afford.

This introductory paragraph could have been snatched from today’s headlines detailing how President Obama walked back his repeated promises not to put American “boots on the ground” in Iraq. However, it is a verbatim cut and paste from an article I wrote just over a year ago predicting EXACTLY what is occurring.  See: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/11/18/update-on-the-third-iraq-war-against-isilisisisaqsyriaetc/#more-768  Not so ironically, you didn’t hear the radio and talk show hosts and other “enlightened” pundits detailing this foreseeable reality a year ago because they are hacks.  However, today the airwaves have been alive with people taking notice.  Savage, Hannity, Beck, Wilkow, O’Reilly, etc. all have been detailing how the President lied and how the strategy they supported to bomb ISIL has not worked.  I say better late than never to the party, but American’s need to wake up now. Read more

Global Updates: May 21, 2015

ISIL holds Ramadi: The White House, Defense Department, and Secretary of State have all down played the fall of Ramadi as a small “target of opportunity” and mild “setback.”  However, in reality, the fall of Ramadi was very foreseeable and a massive military disaster for the Iraqi government.  As I forecasted, Mosul would not be retaken anytime soon and the Obama strategy…or lack thereof, would be a total disaster.  See http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/10/01/islamic-extremism-and-what-lies-ahead-part-ii-the-war-on-isis-and-syria/#more-699 Rather than being beat back, it is now highly likely that ISIL will continue to press its attack while the Iraqi Army is trying to regroup and capture large parts if not all of Fallujah.  If Fallujah falls, Baghdad will finally be seriously threatened by ISIL.

Sirte falls, ISIL takes 3rd major city in 48 hours:  In what is proving to be another example of Obama’s Foreign Policy disaster initiated under Secretary Clinton and amplified under Secretary Kerry, another major city has fallen to ISIL.  However, it is not in Syria or Iraq.  The city is in Libya.  Yes, the country Obama, Rice, Clinton, and Power “liberated” has now had the western city of Sirte overrun by radical Islamists loyal to ISIL.  According to my count that makes the score in just the last 48 hours 3 ISIL: 0 USA.  Ramadi, Palmyra, and now Sirte all have been overrun.  Even if ISIL can’t hold the ground, the fact they took down three major cities in just days is telling of how “successful” the US strategy to combat ISIL has been.  In fact, Obama’s “strategy” has been such a disaster, one would conclude that he couldn’t possibly have been that stupid and the only way this could be occurring was if it was his intent all along.  It is either amateur hour and Obama desperately needs to read some alternative news and hire new NSC advisors or the man is a traitor.

Russia no longer allowing NATO supplies to move across its borders to Afghanistan:  In another foreign policy disaster that has completely escaped the government media complex, Russia has now halted NATO supplies crossing its borders to Afghanistan.  I verbatim warned of this on March 23, 2014 saying the Russians could play this card in retaliation for NATO escalation in the Ukraine and make it extremely painful to maintain our troops in Afghanistan. http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/?s=russia+will+cut+supply+lines Now the US has only one supply route for its forces.  The unreliable and costly southern supply route begins in the Port of Karachi and runs north through Pakistan and into Afghanistan through extremely dangerous Taliban controlled provinces.  Each convoy that is allowed to pass through these areas pays a heavy toll, which in turn is then used to fund Taliban operations.  Further, Pakistan now has gained significant political leverage over Washington to extort any amount of money it wishes to allow passage of critical NATO supplies.  http://rt.com/news/259809-russia-stops-nato-afghanistan-cargo/

FBI making house calls to people concerned about Jade Helm 15:  In what could be viewed as a major escalation bolstering concerns amongst the public over the upcoming Jade Helm 15 exercise, FBI special agents have apparently begun making house calls to concerned citizens that have raised questions publicly.  http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/video-fbi-now-going-door-to-door-interrogating-americans-about-jade-helm-military-exercises-we-follow-pp-with-anything-like-that_05212015 Although, the special agents appear very polite and almost embarrassed to be performing the house calls, the fact they are knocking on doors is chilling.  Ironically, if the intent was to quell fears and concerns as the agents suggest, they are clearly having the exact opposite effect.  I doubt the special agents are so dumb that can’t figure this out, but why they are not speaking out about how ridiculous and counterproductive these visits are is disturbing.  Common sense tells you their real intent is to gauge the subject’s political views and whether or not to deem him a threat.  As agents, they should be well aware that people are allowed to have distrust of the government, dissent, and openly question authority especially, when it is launching an exercise designed to target American citizens in the US.  Whether the intent is to intimidate or not, it is clear field offices have been spun up to believe citizens that simply want the rule of law respected are now the threat.  This has been so hyped by DHS and the DOJ, it is coming at the expense of legitimate threats like MS13 and New Black Panther Party members publicly calling for the execution of police and making good on those threats.  The Justice Department will certainly spin this to say it is just doing its “due diligence” to make sure things are peaceful and safe, but anyone with half a brain sees the biased political motivations forcing agents out to conduct house calls on people that pose zero threat to anyone following the law and respecting the US Constitution.

China and US escalate tensions:  Recent moves by China to exclude airspace to US military aircraft has led to an increase in tensions.  However, this really has nothing to do with some small dots of islands, territorial integrity, or military development.  The deeper issue arising is that China has risen to a peer competitor level status with the US threatening the post-Bretton Woods financial establishment.  Historically, when the bankers were threatened it led directly to war and I doubt this will end differently.  Specifically, China has established a counter balance to the IMF that Washington desperately tried to stop and utterly failed to prevent.  This single act has broken the IMF/World Bank monopoly and the major banking families intend to make China pay for its actions.  Further, China has also been concluding multi-billion dollar oil/gas deals with Russia, which has undermined any ability Washington thought it had to isolate and strong-arm Russia.  In short, China is now seen as a real threat, but not to America, but rather, to the elites of the Western financial monopoly.  As such, you can bet you will see a strong shift toward painting China as a bigger and bigger existential military threat that very well could lead to the outbreak of war.

Peace with Iran will lead to war, but not why you think: Part 1

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, right, speaks with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Geneva, Switzerland, in January. Kerry will meet again with Zarif this weekend in the Swiss capital as March deadline approaches. (Keystone/ Martial Trezzini/file/Associated Press)

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, right, speaks with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Geneva, Switzerland, in January. Kerry will meet again with Zarif this weekend in the Swiss capital as March deadline approaches. (Keystone/ Martial Trezzini/file/Associated Press)

Over the last decade, I have produced many papers and articles analyzing events in the Middle East and their geopolitical impact for academia, commercial publications, think tanks, and government agencies.  I stand by my track record as one of the most prescient in the business.  To that end, predicting chaos in the Middle East has been easy, but combining the what (violence) with the who, when, why, and how are the far more demanding predictions.  One the worst case scenarios for a broad outbreak of violence in the Middle East has been the possibility of a major war between Israel and Iran.  This conflict would immediately go regional with the on-going proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia pulling in the remaining Middle Eastern countries.  Once it goes regional, it will be nearly impossible for the U.S., Europe, and Russia to remain on the sidelines.  I have described in detail how this would likely play out as well as how it could be prevented in previous posts (see a partial list below).  I am writing today again with a dire warning for anyone willing to listen.  The most recent events occurring across the Middle East are now signaling the worst case scenario of a major conflict with Iran will come to pass as I have previously predicted.  This first article discusses why war with Iran is unnecessary and must be avoided.  Part II will discuss why even with an Iranian deal, war is inevitable and the dire consequences we can expect.  Read more

The US defeat in Afghanistan and its inevitable consequences

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   From the beginning, we considered Afghanistan the more difficult war…it will be so even after we retreat.  The longest war in American history is coming to a close as an indecisive strategic defeat for the US and NATO just as I predicted over a decade ago.  The war was fought against an enemy with an extremely low level of capability, but our generals refused to recognize the critical importance of stopping the enemy’s movement to and from its cross-border sanctuary even when presented with overwhelming analyses.  Specifically, the failure of border security to be made a priority in the overall counterinsurgency strategy all but guaranteed the inevitable exhaustion and defeat of the occupation force.  Embarrassingly, the hard truth is the “most powerful” and certainly the most expensive military in history failed to decisively defeat the Taliban and Al Qaeda.  The US/NATO defeat was not for lack of manpower or firepower, it was a defeat born of intellectual incompetence and utter dereliction by our senior leadership.  Importantly, the critical failure responsible for the US/NATO defeat remains at the senior echelons within the US military and White House, is systemic, and remains uncorrected.  Now, just like in Iraq, we are told by President Obama and his appointees that Afghans will take over operations and complete the mission.  The chances of the Afghans defeating the Taliban are zero and we must be prepared for the inevitable consequences.

   First, I want to support my certainty that most of Afghanistan will be overrun by the Taliban.  To do this we need only to look at the current status of the war.  To date, the combined power of the US and NATO has after 14 years proved unable to defeat the Taliban.  However, we are told to believe by Obama and his generals that the Afghans, with a relative few Americans in support, will be capable of cleaning up the mess and decisively defeating the Taliban.  The result of this is another easily predictable, preordained defeat.  Afghanistan’s new president, Ashraf Ghani, simply will not be able to hold on to Kabul, much less the whole of Afghanistan, and will likely meet the same fate as his earlier predecessor Mohammad Najibullah Ahmadzai at the hands of the Taliban.  Further, it is appearing more likely that this will not just be a Taliban victory, but may be completed under the unified banner of ISIL. Read more

NATO Declares War in Afghanistan Over!…But forgets to inform the Taliban

After over a decade of fighting, the Afghan War ends in strategic defeat for the US and NATO

After over a decade of fighting, the Afghan War ends in strategic defeat for the US and NATO

On December 28, 2014, the US and NATO declared an end to the mission and therefore the war in Afghanistan. A Taliban statement from Zabihullah Mujahidon, a Taliban spokesman, left no doubt to how it was interpreted according to Reuters.

“ISAF rolled up its flag in an atmosphere of failure and disappointment without having achieved anything substantial or tangible.”

Washington may not like the statement and downplay it, but it doesn’t change the reality that the statement is accurate.  Not so ironically, the US and NATO have been mute over the success of the war.  No celebrations, no parades, no victory speeches…the absence of all of this should signal that our leaders know it was a failure.  In fact, not only did the combined force of NATO and the US not achieve a decisive victory over the Taliban, they suffered a strategic defeat.  Read more