The last week has witnessed some unprecedented changes across the Middle East. These events have moved the entire region closer to a major Sunni-Shia conflict. As such, it is important to review what has occurred and assess if this will lead to a major war. If so, it will have major strategic implications for the US so are you prepared? Read more
Archive for Department of State
When I first heard of the deaths of US military personnel in Niger, I was saddened, but not surprised. Having no shame, the MSM took less than 48 hours to spin the events into a political debacle of legendary indecency. It began with the media providing a platform for a mentally deranged, utterly contemptible, and rather freakish Congress(woman?) from Florida to exploit a family’s grief. As that began to backfire on the Democrats, the propagandists within the MSM got their new talking points and began trying to equate the attack to some type of Benghazi cover-up. What they failed to mention in all of this spin was that there was an element of truth in that the soldiers’ deaths were actually directly related to the events that claimed the American lives in Benghazi. However, it wasn’t Trump’s fault; it was Obama’s. Read more
North Korean Crisis Offers Russia Strategic Opportunity to Repair or Destroy Relations with United States
The brutally oppressive regime of North Korea is a pariah state that exists both internally and externally by intimidation, extortion, and violence. North Korea’s most recent tests of what appears to be a functional hydrogen bomb and an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) have created an existential threat to the United States and its allies, which no longer can be ignored. World governments will be asked to pick a side, which will have very dire consequences. Irrespective of internal politics and national interests, those nations that side with the despotic communist regime in North Korea will be rightly viewed as evil. However, nations seeking to improve their relations with Washington have a unique opportunity. Russia, in particular, has the chance to move much closer with the US on the issue of North Korea. Russia be warned though; there is equal or greater danger of losing any moral high ground and favor President Putin curries with Americans if Russia sides with North Korea. I can’t understate the importance of this last point. Read more
The Russians have exhibited great restraint and diplomatic poise in recent years against the growing anti-Russian hysteria in the United States. Not only has Russia endured sanctions, but also having its aircraft shot down in Syria and a massive NATO build-up on its border. Russian security and sovereignty are being directly threatened for the high crimes of defending its historical geopolitical sphere, attempting to wipe out brutal Islamic terrorists, and rejecting globalism. However, this week has marked a turning point in US-Russian relations. The sanctions the US Congress approved against Russia based not on fact, but on hysteria and massive political propaganda pushed Russia to finally begin to retaliate. The most visible overt action was the expulsion of 755 US diplomats from Russia. However, Russian covert actions have by their nature been less visible, but nonetheless potent and we can expect more to come. Read more
Again, the news cycle is moving so quickly, no one is able to completely keep up. However, with all of the focus on executive orders on immigration some major events are slipping by unnoticed. The take away is that the Middle East is again moving rapidly toward all-out war. The immigration issue is serious and important, but the war that could potential break out in the Middle East could be staggering. Here are the most recent highlights with comment:
Yemen in particular has become a flashpoint. Starting from the top, a unit from SEAL Team Six got mauled badly and lost an operator while conducting a direct action raid on a suspected al-Qaeda facility. Further, their MV-22 Osprey crashed and was destroyed on the ground. The base model of a single Osprey costs over $73,000,000 dollars and this was a special operations variant, which comes in closer to one hundred million dollars. This was in exchange for killing 14 alleged terrorists of at best, medium value, and collecting some information to better identify their network. This shows that President Trump is less risk averse when it comes to launching our soldiers into combat. If this becomes a trend, it means much more kinetic warfare and far greater US casualties. Previous to this raid, attacks in Yemen were almost exclusively being carried out by airstrikes.
If not bad enough, a Saudi Arabian Frigate, which is a warship, was attacked according to the US government, by a small boat laden with explosives. However, video evidence supports the assessment that believes the ship was hit by a missile supplied by Iran. Anti-ship missiles have been fired at US Warships in the same area over the last six months. Further, one man can be heard speaking in an Iranian accent chanting death to America. If it was indeed a missile that hit the boat, the fact is being downplayed and covered up to prevent outrage in Saudi Arabia that would demand revenge and initiate a war with Iran. This is not unprecedented in the region. An advanced ship from the UAE was also recently hit by an Iranian supplied anti-ship missile launched from Yemen and damaged so badly it had to be decommissioned. However, the UAE never officially acknowledge the attack.
Irrespective of how the attack occurred, the blast appears to have struck the upper portion of the stern of the Saudi ship inflicting serious damage and killing at least two Saudi sailors. This is a major act of war and is believed to have been launched by the Houthi rebels in Yemen. One may say this is the cost of starting an unnecessary war and invading Yemen. I would agree that it was stupid for Saudi Arabia to intervene militarily in Yemen. However, the Saudis tonight are not discussing whether or not their war was smart. What they are discussing his how to retaliate. If it in fact was an attack launched by the Houthis, the missile was undoubtedly supplied by Iran. Everyone knows this, but the question is if the Kingdom will hold the Houthis and/or the Iranians responsible. I assess the possibility of Saudi Arabia expanding their war in Yemen as high. I also see a medium likelihood of Saudi Arabia expanding it to Iran to include indicting any Iranian flagged ship near Yemen. This will undoubtedly provoke another cycle of violence. Worst case is Saudi Arabia decides to retaliate directly against Iran, but I assess this as unlikely. The fact that Saudi Arabia has not said anything about the ban in immigration from seven predominately Muslim countries factors into this situation. It is highly likely the Saudis will try to lean heavily on the US to take out Iran for them, which brings me to my next point.
Iran test launched a ballistic missile this week in violation of pretty much everything the international community has told Iran it could not do. Iran became a serial violator of any international dictates since the Obama Administration was in office. Their transgressions included seizing US Navy vessels and their crews in international waters, providing weapons to attack and kill Americans, holding Americans hostage, developing long range missile technology, and feigning attacks on our warships. Following precedent, Iran conducted a launch of another ballistic missile and has yet to be “reprimanded” by the new Administration. Perhaps, Iran thinks it has gotten away with it and President Trump will be a push over. If so, I believe they have badly miscalculated the new American President. President Trump in a short amount of time will respond. How, is the only question. Trumps retaliatory options range from lodging a diplomatic protest and re-invoking sanctions to launching a nuclear strike.
Yes, I do think President Trump is serious enough he may indeed use nuclear weapons during his time in office to prevent a bloody and costly deployment of ground troops against a country like North Korea or Iran. Nonetheless, I assess the Administration will come out with a clear warning to Iran, but will stop short of a military strike. Iran will get one warning, but no more. However, there is a perfect coalescing of Saudi and US interests with regards to annihilating Iran. Iran should take this seriously because Saudi Arabia may be on the phone right now with Washington discussing military options for the attack on their ship. If Trump greenlights retaliation, we could have a major outbreak of war in days. However, I reiterate, I think right now we will have some clear red lines drawn and preparations made, but the war won’t begin just yet.
In summary, things are getting hotter in the Middle East. All that is needed is a slight nudge and the entire region could erupt. I do not see anything getting calmer anytime soon. In fact, I think we are about to see a major escalation of war in the Middle East.
By Guiles Hendrik
January 30, 2017
I have to say, from a business perspective, we are getting a lot for our money. Trump, to date, has proved to be the hardest working president in a generation…like him or not. Further, the man has so far done exactly what he promised to do. Even more amazing is that he is getting it done in hours and days not months and years. For a man of his age, you have to respect his level of energy and dedication. It also appears he doesn’t take weekends off. Sorry bureaucrats…you have to work like the rest of us…and should. The question is whether he can keep this schedule up. The news agencies are literally physically breaking down trying to keep up with covering him. It truly is unprecedented. Here is the release in its raw form:
THE WHITE HOUSE
Office of the Press Secretary
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
January 27, 2017
PRESIDENT TRUMP’S FIRST WEEK OF ACTION
· 15: Presidential Actions to begin fulfilling his promises to Make America Great Again.
· 11: Diplomatic conversations with foreign leaders to promote an America First foreign policy.
· 4: Members of President Trump’s cabinet sworn into office.
· 3: Stakeholder meetings to get input from both workers and business leaders on jumpstarting job creation.
· 3: Engagements with members of Congress to discuss his agenda.
· 3: Visits to federal agencies committed to protecting our homeland and ensuring our national security.
· 1: Official White House visit by a foreign head of state.
· 1: Reception to honor law enforcement and first responders.
· 1: Proclamation supporting National School Choice week.
· The President’s team followed through on his commitment to action, by:
o collaborating with 28 federal agencies and departments on a near daily basis.
o discussing legislative items with at least 75 House members or their staffs and 35 Senators or their staffs.
o making initial contact with governors in each state and territory, and having in-depth discussions with 32 governors or their staff.
o discussing issues with 22 state attorneys general.
o beginning outreach to our nation’s largest municipalities and tribes.
President Trump Used The Power Of His Office To Follow Through On His Promises To The American People
WITHIN HOURS OF HIS INAUGURATION: President Trump moved to protect Americans from ObamaCare, government regulations, and future bailouts.
· On the evening of his Inauguration, President Trump sought relief for Americans from the cost burdens of ObamaCare.
· Through a memorandum issued by the Chief of Staff, all new regulations were frozen to protect job creators from the crush of new government rules on their businesses.
· President Trump put a stop to a reckless action that would have reduced funding for the Federal Housing Authority after it was bailed out by the taxpayers as recently as 2013.
MONDAY: President Trump fulfilled his promise to immediately address trade and jobs by withdrawing from the harmful Trans-Pacific Partnership, put in place a hiring freeze, and protected taxpayer money from funding abortions overseas.
· President Trump protected American workers by withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
· To stem the tide of an ever growing government, President Trump put in place a hiring freeze on federal civilian employees.
· After years of taxpayer money being spent to promote abortions abroad, President Trump reinstated the “Mexico City Policy” to ban such usage.
TUESDAY: President Trump promoted job creation by jumpstarting the construction of two new energy pipelines, requiring the use of American-made materials and equipment in building those pipelines, and reduced the regulatory burden on America’s manufacturing and construction industry.
· President Trump began the process to finish construction on the Dakota Access Pipeline after a series of delays.
· After years of delays, President Trump signed a presidential memorandum to revive the Keystone XL pipeline.
· To make sure Americans benefit from infrastructure projects, the President signed an executive memorandum requiring all new construction and repair of pipelines to use American materials and equipment.
· President Trump ordered the Commerce Department to streamline and reduce regulations affecting U.S. manufacturing to help bring factories back to America.
· To jumpstart much needed infrastructure projects, President Trump signed an executive order to speed up the environmental impact review of projects.
WEDNESDAY: President Trump followed through on his pledge to protect America’s borders and end the lack of compliance with immigration laws.
· Following through on his commitment to protecting the American people, President Trump signed an executive order to improve border security, particularly through the construction of a physical barrier on the southern border.
· President Trump signed an executive order to ensure that immigration laws are enforced throughout the United States, including halting federal funding for sanctuary cities.
FRIDAY: President Trump followed through on his top priority to keep America safe.
· President Trump signed an executive order protecting the United States from foreign nationals entering from countries compromised by terrorism, and ensuring a more rigorous vetting process.
· President Trump issued a presidential memorandum to direct the Secretary of Defense to review our readiness and create plans to rebuild the U.S. military.
President Trump Has Held or Scheduled 11 Conversations With Foreign Leaders To Promote American Interests Around The Globe
· On Saturday, President Trump spoke with President Enrique Peña Nieto of Mexico and discussed respect for the sovereignty of both nations.
· On Saturday, President Trump also spoke with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on the importance of strong U.S.-Canada ties.
· On Sunday, President Trump spoke with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel to discuss opportunities to strengthen relations.
· On Monday, President Trump spoke with President Abdel Fattah Al-Sissi of Egypt, expressing his commitment for a new push in bilateral relations.
· On Tuesday, President Trump spoke with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India to strengthen relations and cooperation.
· Today, President Trump spoke again with President Enrique Peña Nieto of Mexico to discuss bilateral relations, border security and trade.
· Tomorrow, President Trump is scheduled to speak Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of with Japan
· Tomorrow, President Trump is scheduled to speak with Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany.
· Tomorrow, President Trump is scheduled to speak with President Vladimir Putin of Russia.
· Tomorrow, President Trump is scheduled to speak with President François Hollande of France.
· Tomorrow, President Trump is scheduled to speak with Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull of Australia.
Four Of President Trump’s Nominees Were Confirmed By The Senate And Sworn Into Office
· Last Friday, retired General John Kelly was sworn in as Secretary of Homeland Security.
· Also last Friday, retired General James Mattis was sworn in as Secretary of Defense.
· On Monday, former Congressman Mike Pompeo was sworn in as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency.
· On Wednesday, former Governor Nikki Haley was sworn in as Ambassador to the United Nations.
Following Through On His Commitment To Job Creation, President Trump Held Stakeholder Meetings With Business And Labor Leaders
· On Monday, President Trump met with labor leaders to discuss his plans to renegotiate trade deals and put Americans back to work.
· Later on Monday, President Trump met with manufacturing leaders to discuss how to bring factories and manufacturing jobs back to America.
· On Tuesday, President Trump met with key industry leaders to discuss how the auto industry can bring back American jobs.
President Trump Held Meetings Or Spoke With Congressional Leaders To Discuss His Agenda
· On Monday, President Trump hosted Republican and Democrat congressional leaders and chiefs of staff at the White House to discuss the upcoming legislative agenda.
· On Tuesday, President Trump met with key Senate leaders to discuss his upcoming choice to fill the Supreme Court vacancy.
· On Thursday, President Trump spoke at the Republican congressional retreat in Philadelphia.
President Trump Spoke At The Headquarters Of The CIA, The Department Of Homeland Security, And The Department Of Defense
· On Saturday, President Trump spoke at CIA headquarters and told a raucous crowd that he’d have their back as he thanked them for their service to the country.
· On Wednesday, President Trump visited the Department of Homeland Security to reinforce his strong belief in protecting America’s borders.
· On Wednesday, President Trump visited the Department of Defense to highlight his commitment to rebuild our military.
President Trump Hosted U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May
· In hosting his first foreign head of state at the White House, President Trump welcomed Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Theresa May.
As One Of His First Actions After Inauguration Day, President Trump Thanked American Law Enforcement And First Responders
· On Sunday, President Trump held a White House Reception to honor and thank law enforcement and first responders who helped make his Inauguration safe and successful.
President Trump Proclaimed National School Choice Week
· On Thursday, President Trump renewed his commitment to expand school choice for Americans by proclaiming January 22 through January 28, 2017, as National School Choice Week.
The President’s Team Is Following Through On His Commitment To Action
President Trump’s team has worked to ensure his team is in place at various departments and agencies and working to implement his agenda:
· The White House Office of Cabinet Affairs made 140 calls to 28 separate federal departments and agencies to collaborate on various issues.
· Cabinet Affairs personally met with 10 Cabinet nominees.
· Cabinet Affairs coordinated the swearing in of four cabinet members this week by the Vice President.
President Trump’s team has worked to ensure his legislative agenda is well-received in Congress:
· The White House Office of Legislative Affairs met or spoke with 110 congressional offices or elected representatives in 75 House and 35 Senate offices.
· Vice President Pence had several in-person meetings this week on Capitol Hill.
President Trump’s team began outreach to our nation’s states, municipalities, and tribes:
· The White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs made initial contact with the governor’s offices in all of the states and territories.
· Intergovernmental Affairs held detailed discussions with the governors or their staff in 32 separate states.
· Intergovernmental Affairs made initial contact with 22 of the 50 state attorneys general.
· Intergovernmental Affairs has begun outreach to America’s largest municipalities, such as Los Angeles County and met with the president of the U.S. Conference of Mayors.
· Intergovernmental Affairs made contact with the largest tribes in the country and has begun outreach with many leaders.
Much has been made of President Trump’s proposed domestic policies as he was sworn in today as the 45th President of the United States. However, as all eyes are focused on Washington, DC, President Trump’s first major political test may have already materialized. North Korea has threatened it will conduct an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test in violation of international sanctions. President Trump had already stated that any North Korean launch “won’t happen,” (See: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/02/world/asia/trump-twitter-north-korea-missiles-china.html?_r=0) so a showdown between the US and North Korea is underway. How each side acts and responds could literally mean the US engages in a nuclear war with North Korea potentially within a week. Read more
The current “deal” with Iran over its nuclear program is better defined as policy capitulation. To be viable, the deal must have teeth and achieve the endstate desired by the United States. The current “deal” with Iran is neither and ultimately does not stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Therefore, a renegotiation of the treaty is necessary to avoid war. However, war may still be the inevitable result of either doing nothing or trying to force a renegotiation the Iranians are unwilling to engage in. If Iran continues to get closer to a nuclear weapon, there will be a major war irrespective of whether or not the US wants it. Further, if Iran feels cornered, it may simply refuse to renegotiate anything and regionally retaliate against US pressure leading to a military engagement. Iran isn’t a paper tiger and has the ability cause the US significant problems if we do drive a hard bargain. Donald Trump will need to understand this in finite detail or the US will pay in blood and treasure abroad and at home. Read more
The following summary of recent world events is decidedly negative. This is not due to overt pessimism as much as the facts are just plain bad. In fact, I didn’t even include events like the effects of Hurricane Mathew, the attack on our warship off the coast of Yemen, and the assassination of more police around the US. The world is not getting any safer and indicators are all pointing to things worsening as we move into late fall and winter. The following are major events you should be taking note of with short comments.
- Situation in Syria: Syrian government forces backed by Iran and Russia continue to pound Aleppo and are nearing a strategic breakthrough. All actors in Syria recognize that if Assad is able to recapture Aleppo from the Islamic extremists it will be the beginning of the end for Washington’s terrorist proxies in Syria. As such, there is panic from Doha to Washington. The terrorist coalition knows that it is now or never for major intervention, which may force the White House to order direct strikes against the Syrian regime, which undoubtedly will be countered by Russian retaliation. This creates the potential for a rapid outbreak of a major regional war that could go global. We have effectively arrived at the point I have repeatedly forecasted would occur in Syria where either Moscow or Washington accepts a massive strategic policy defeat or there is a major war…perhaps both. This is inescapable at this point. The best case scenario is if the US backs out by aligning with Russia to defeat ISIL and negotiate a peace deal that leaves the regime in place for now. This is highly unlikely and if Hillary Clinton is elected, all but impossible.
- I am forecasting that the US will continue to spread false anti-Assad and anti-Russian propaganda to drum up war sentiment in the US to prepare the public for the announcement airstrikes against Syrian military positions. If the neo-cons within the establishment get their way the air strikes will happen, but there will be an immediate cost to US forces. Russia will defend its positions on the ground and engage any US forces that directly threaten Russian lives and interests. In this event, it is possible we will witness the first combat losses of US Fifth Generation Fighters, which Washington is rightfully terrified will occur. The loss of these jets will show everyone how much superiority the US has lost against countries like China under Obama. This will jeopardize the multi-billion dollar acquisition program that has been riddled with corruption, failures, and delays. As such, it is far more likely Washington will lead with cruise missile and drone strikes that are easier to deny and hide if they fail to achieve their objectives, but are also much less likely to achieve decisive results.
White House Answers Petition to Label Black Lives Matter a Terrorist Organization: Careful What You Wish For
A White House petition was generated that gathered over 100,000 signatures to label the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement a terrorist organization. In response, the White House stated it didn’t have the power to label anyone a terrorist organization. Although, the White House clearly was ignoring the petition, be glad they did ignore it. Irrespective of whether or not you support BLM or not, declaring it a terrorist organization would have been a huge mistake and disaster for freedom and liberty. Whoever started the petition was probably good intentioned, but if you considered for a moment the true implications of what you were asking for, you would realize you are a complete idiot. Read more
It has been some time since I posted. I apologize as a lot has transpired over the last two weeks. To make up for lost time, I am going to give you the briefing points you need to know.
- South China Sea dispute heats up. For those of you worried about the potential for WWIII, we just got one step closer today when the UN committee set up to arbitrate the territorial dispute between China and the Philippines ruled in favor of the Philippines. Right or wrong, China utterly rejected the ruling and reaffirmed its self-perceived right to continue to economically and militarily develop the region as it sees fit. This sets the stage for China to walk away from the international community to protect its interests while many smaller Pacific nations like Vietnam, the Philippines, and Japan will feel emboldened to challenge China. My prediction is this ruling will only fuel hostilities in the region and set the region on a collision course for war.
- The spread of superbugs in the US that are resistant to all known antibiotic treatments continues. For a second time in less than a month, colistin resistant E. Coli has been identified in the US. The strain in question tested positive for the gene mcr-1, which makes it resistant to colistin, a last resort antibiotic. Per my previous articles (search antibiotic resistant on the LMS homepage), the spread of resistant bacteria is increasing in frequency and could easily hit a breakout stage in the near future. Once the mcr-1 resistant gene jumps to other resistant infections such as highly resistant Tuberculosis now being brought into the US by the thousands via illegal immigrants and refugees, it is only a matter of time before a true pandemic sweeps across the globe again. http://abcnews.go.com/Health/superbug-coli-found-time-us/story?id=40488140
- Obama is preparing to use wartime (Global War on Terror) martial law powers to ban and seize firearms for “national security.” Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson has been in secret talks with President Obama and other top officials to engineer “gun control” as a national security issue. The intent, like with nearly every other “Right” under the US Constitution is to suspend the Second Amendment or make it virtually meaningless by using unconstitutional wartime interpretations and rulings of executive powers. Their plan, like I have detailed repeatedly over the last decade (see: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2015/12/06/the-problem-isnt-islamic-terrorism-it-is-guns-according-to-emperor-obama/), is progressing on schedule. Obama and his Leftist goons are intentionally inciting division and violence and fully plan to use the predictable violent outcome to justify “federal government” action and emergency powers that restrict firearms for “national security.” After the events of Dallas and President Obama’s utterly despicable statements, it is clear that this administration is prepared to act as soon as this summer if more violence can be incited across the nation.
- Turkey continues to use “terrorist” attacks within its border as cover for supporting terrorists in Syria that vow to kill Americans. It is critical to understand Turkey has been proven to openly conduct false flag attacks against its own citizens to support President Erdogan’s radical agenda. Most recently, Turkey has suffered a number of major attacks blamed on both ISIL and Kurdish rebel groups, but that is questionable to say the least. True or not, Ankara wasted no time using the attacks to justify a Turkish military invasion of Syria. However, the Turkish military has done nothing to destroy radical Islamic groups operating in Syria. In fact, a closer analysis clearly shows that the Turkish military has instead been used to resupply radical Islamic groups to include the Al Nusra Front and ISIL/ISIS while smashing US backed Kurdish positions. Ankara is determined to undermine Syrian President Assad and specifically has used its military to push back Kurdish positions in key blocking positions so that it could resupply radical Islamic fighters on the verge of being routed from Aleppo by Syrian forces. If Syrian forces retake the lost ground and are again about to liberate Aleppo, expect to see another “terrorist” attack inside Turkey that will be immediately used to justify even greater military incursions into Syria to back radical Islamic extremist groups. As Syria and Russia continue to mop up ISIL positions and approach Raqqa, I fear this could lead to another direct engagement with Russian forces, which could quickly plunge the region into a major war.
- US continues to lose ground in Afghanistan. President Obama signed off on increased troop levels in Afghanistan to help combat the Taliban. In reality, the US completely ceded most of Afghanistan to the Taliban when Obama pulled the bulk of our forces out and our footprint in Afghanistan is getting more and more untenable. It has gotten so bad, military logisticians plan up front to lose over 20% of any supplies shipped into Afghanistan because of the Taliban. Further, Special Forces A-Teams are thinly spread across Afghanistan in a vain attempt to train and advise Afghan forces. This WILL FAIL because the entire concept of training and advising is at best of limited value and at worst, counterproductive, but our brilliant military strategists are too stupid and indoctrinated to recognize the facts. If a large contingent of forces are not recommitted under competent leadership to Afghanistan, the Taliban will likely begin to capture and hold major cities by years end and begin to directly threaten Kabul on a sustained basis as early as next summer.
- Number of US forces continues to quietly increase in Iraq as undeclared war continues. President Obama signed off on additional troop deployments to Iraq to support on-going efforts to recapture Ramadi, Fallujah, and Mosul from ISIL. Like I predicted (see articles: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/?s=strategy+in+iraq), none of Obama’s faux “strategy” would prove effective and he would again prove to be a hypocrite and put boots on the ground, which he promised not to do. To date, none of those cities have been completely liberated. The long overdue offensive on Mosul is again delayed and most likely also going to fail. At best, Iraqi forces will blast their way through the city, but will find it impossible to root out ISIL elements because the inhabitants of the city “ARE” ISIL. The Sunni population in Mosul is hostile to the government in Baghdad and isn’t going to change anytime soon unless everyone in the city is killed. It is important to note that even at the height of the Iraq War, the US military never fully pacified Mosul and was literally fighting in the city as President Obama unilaterally declared our surrender in Iraq. The bottom line is this deployment of troops is another vain endeavor that will fail because it is led by incompetents. No further understanding is necessary to KNOW this ends badly for the US and Iraqis.
By Guiles Hendrik
July 12, 2016
Lately, in political circles I have been posing a very important policy question. The question I ask is what does the world look like if North Korea is allowed to possess a viable nuclear weapons capability that truly threatens the United States. As of now, that world does not exist, but it soon will. My question is designed to force policy makers to address this impending crisis situation while it still can be contained. Disturbingly, it appears there is no real consensus on the issue and most seem to just hope that if they don’t acknowledge the problem, it will go away. Well, I have news. North Korea is only going to become a bigger problem for the world with disastrous consequences within five years. Policy makers must seriously tackle this issue now before a nuclear war becomes a reality.
US policy toward North Korea is exceedingly complex and is becoming more dangerous by the week. The fact the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un is as close to a true irrational actor as the contemporary world has witnessed only makes the situation more volatile. Any policy missteps could cause anything from headaches to nuclear war for our allies like South Korea and Japan. Further, China could quickly become involved in a major war against the US, which will be nuclear if it occurs. Even worse, North Korea is now known inside of intelligence circles as a proxy for Iranian nuclear development. It is no coincidence that since the Obama Administration freed up frozen Iranian assets that North Korea suddenly has had the funds to test multiple ballistic missiles and nuclear bombs. Let me be clear, with every nuclear advancement North Korea makes, it not only destabilizes the Korean Peninsula, but it further destabilizers the Middle East and makes a massive war involving both Saudi Arabia and Israel against Iran even more likely. If not averted now, the world will have one more reason very soon to expect a nuclear war that kills millions of people. Read more
Putin deals Obama another strategic policy defeat in Syria as Russian military outflanks Turkey and redeploys to Armenia in preparation for major regional war
This week Russia announced it would begin the withdrawal of some of its military forces from Syria catching many analysts by surprise. However, it appears the US military and intelligence community may have known in advance that this was going to occur because of a secretly brokered ceasefire deal between Moscow and the White House. On the surface, this appears to be a positive sign for all parties. Russia doesn’t get bogged down in Syria and it alleviates tensions in the region and the chances for a military miscalculation that could lead to a rapidly escalating war. Don’t be fooled. Russia just handed the US another major strategic defeat and most policy makers are too dumb to even realize it yet because they can’t think beyond the immediate.
As with most things in government, looks are deceiving and Putin is again laughing at the US as he readies for a potential war with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, Read more
Massive and devastating escalation of War in Syria looms as Syrian Forces backed by Russia are poised to retake Aleppo: Saudi Arabia and Turkey prepare to deploy armies to Syria in response
This is an alert to all of my readers of a potentially imminent global crisis. We are not at the point of a full blown crisis yet, but I am telling everyone they need to not get, but, BE ready for things rapidly to turn very bad within 30-60 days. I will be closely monitoring this situation and will provide updates as necessary.
While most Americans are distracted by the Super Bowl and the disgusting Jerry Springeresque political theater we call an election process, the world is rapidly descending toward a major, devastating war that will ultimately involve more Americans than both Afghanistan and Iraq combined. Make no mistake, the situation developing in the Middle East is extremely grave and the US government has lost all control. I have warned repeatedly about ignoring the last off ramps to peace in the Middle East and what the result would be. Well, now another prediction has come to pass as Russian backed Syrian troops are poised to retake Aleppo from the murderous Islamic savages and Saudi Arabia and Turkey prepare to militarily join the fight.
One quick look at a map will demonstrate the strategic significance of Aleppo for rebels fighting in Syria. Most critical to the mix of rebel elements still holding Aleppo is that it provides access to key supply lines originating in Turkey. If Aleppo falls, the primary rebel supply line will be cut and the rebels will face a near imminent defeat. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar are the primary backers of rebel forces in Syria and know this means their policy is about to collapse and Shia Iran will become the region’s hegemon. This also petrifies countries like Israel that have remained mostly quiet about the civil war even though they too are deeply involved. As a result, these countries are preparing to commit military forces to prevent Aleppo’s fall. As I have repeatedly warned, this will escalate the conflict significantly and rapidly. See: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/?s=syria
Make no mistake; the US has been on the wrong side of this war. I welcome the advance of Russian backed Syrian forces smashing the rebel forces, which are primarily composed of radical Islamic extremists that have been brutally murdering thousands of innocent people to include Christians. However, as I have repeatedly predicted, if one side in the proxy war primarily between Iran and Saudi Arabia gains a decisive advantage, it would force the other to quadruple down (they have already doubled and tripled) on their policy. At this point, that means putting their troops in actually face to face battle. As I warned for years and literally predicted, Saudi Arabia has now announced it is preparing to deploy its troops to Syria. See: http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/02/general-saudi-arabia-set-deploy-troops-syria-160205042542486.html
The arrival of Gulf Arab armies in Syria will be in a single word, catastrophic. The US long ago lost effective control of the conflict it in large part created, but MUST stop this deployment or risk the outbreak of a full scale regional and possibly world war. The notion that an alliance of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, and Kuwait, the same countries that have collectively spent billions arming and supporting ISIL, will now move to destroy ISIL defies all logic. In fact, it is so politically ridiculous that it is in fact a thinly veiled lie. Instead, Saudi Arabia and Turkey will lead an army into Syria with only one goal and that is to overthrow President Assad. Rather than fighting the radical terrorist elements such as ISIL, they will back them by recasting them as “moderate rebels.” Russia, Iraq, Iran, and Hezbollah will not be fooled by this and proportionally escalate. This sets the stage for a massive and devastating escalation. Read more
Forget the issues with where Cruz was born; Hillary Clinton will be legally ineligible to hold office or a security clearance
I have had enough of waiting for the “In”Justice Department to do its job. If we fail to maintain the rule of law equitably in this country from the top to the bottom we have neither freedom nor a republic. Abolishment of the rule of law effectively abolishes the United States of America and replaces it with a despotic banana republic. The failure to equitably enforce the law is one of the gravest dangers to any free nation. It is an absolutely essential element of any free and civilized democratic nation. The agents of the Federal Bureau of Investigation must uphold their duty at all costs to the equitable enforce the rule of law even when extending it to the very highest offices in this nation. In fact, making sure our most senior leaders are held the most accountable is an indispensable requirement to the function of our nation. By this bar, Hillary Clinton will not only be ineligible to hold any public office and should already have had her ability to obtain a security clearance revoked.
A citizen doesn’t have to be a US Attorney or federal agent to understand that the United States Code with respect to criminal offenses has been repeatedly and flagrantly violated by Mrs. Clinton. Further, based on the open source information that has already been released through FOIA requests, more than enough evidence is available for even the worst agent to assemble enough probable cause to go in front of any reputable judge and get either an indictment or directly obtain warrants for Hillary’s arrest. Other than for reasons of political corruption, it is insane to entertain any reason why national security has been allowed to lapse and “ALL” of Hillary Clinton’s emails and related servers were not immediately seized by the FBI. It is unprecedented that in a matter involving national security the suspect would be allowed to dictate the timeline and piecemeal subpoenaed evidence. This alone stands as a testament to the corrupting political influences that have already affected the prosecution of the case against Hillary Clinton. Further, there is no lawful explanation why all of the emails held by the Department of State have not been immediately turned over to the FBI. If there is a shortage of manpower to investigate the potential crimes committed, I would suggest that instead of shooting old cowboys in Oregon, the FBI would be better served focusing on real criminals.
Hillary Clinton is suspected of disclosing classified information. This isn’t a small issue or oversight. Now hundreds and perhaps thousands of emails were willfully and knowingly transmitted via unsecure means to uncleared persons that contained not just Secret, but Top Secret information. All of these facts are legally pertinent for a criminal conviction and all of the evidence is already publicly available. For those of you that believe that Hillary somehow unknowingly passed this information, you are not just incredibly naïve and or stupid, you are 100 percent wrong. Those of you that have worked in the intelligence community know the measures in place to prevent spills of classified information from the high to the low side. A by name, need-to-know access list is maintained for all Top Secret – Sensitive Compartmented Information or “TS-SCI” and Special Access Programs, “SAP.” One must be individually read in to SCI and SAP intelligence, which is handled in a very special manner and is physically separated from other types of intelligence. This type of highly sensitive intelligence to include the means by which the intelligence was gathered just doesn’t get out by accident or unknowingly because the system has been designed through trial and error by generations of intelligence experts to explicitly prevent such a disclosure. Let me be very clear to those that still don’t get it. The definition of Top Secret is: “containing or being information whose unauthorized disclosure could result in exceptionally grave danger to the nation.” “Exceptionally grave danger to the nation.” Let the gravity of the damage done by Hillary Clinton’s reckless use of a private server to hide her other illegal activities sink in. Someone so reckless as to disclose information that would cause “exceptionally grave danger to the nation” is under no uncertain circumstances, absolutely and positively unfit for any office. In fact, according to 18 U.S. Code § 798 – Disclosure of classified information:
(a) Whoever knowingly and willfully communicates, furnishes, transmits, or otherwise makes available to an unauthorized person, or publishes, or uses in any manner prejudicial to the safety or interest of the United States or for the benefit of any foreign government to the detriment of the United States any classified information—
(1) concerning the nature, preparation, or use of any code, cipher, or cryptographic system of the United States or any foreign government; or
(2) concerning the design, construction, use, maintenance, or repair of any device, apparatus, or appliance used or prepared or planned for use by the United States or any foreign government for cryptographic or communication intelligence purposes; or
(3) concerning the communication intelligence activities of the United States or any foreign government; or
(4) obtained by the processes of communication intelligence from the communications of any foreign government, knowing the same to have been obtained by such processes—
Shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ten years, or both.
The law is clear. People that have committed far less crimes such as Private Bradley Manning are serving long sentences and rotting in jail. Others like Edward Snowden are living in exile for exposing illegal and unconstitutional activities. However, Hillary has jeopardized the most sensitive and damaging of US secrets and caused untold damage to our national security and still has the hubris to run for any office. The arrogance of this woman is unprecedented. I am not sure why over a hundred whiz kid agents at the FBI can’t put two and two together and get the damn indictment or preferably the arrest warrant and hold her without bail because she is a flight risk and could possibly receive asylum in another country in exchange for sensitive information she has been privileged to. As citizens, we need to drop the political partisanship and come together against what could be construed as high treason. The media in particular needs to drive home the fact Hillary Clinton is unfit, a criminal, and has caused extremely grave damage to our national security, which by definition can’t be undone.
Unfortunately, for a host of reasons, the list of federal crimes Hillary could and should be charged with doesn’t stop there with disclosing classified information. The clear cut obstruction of justice by not just Hillary, but her cronies within the Department of State to prevent the full and immediate release of all emails should also be charged. For a judge not to have invoked at least contempt at this late stage in the game can only be seen as political corruption because any “average” citizen would have long been thrown in jail. I tend to think that as soon as the minions found themselves facing criminal charges, things like snowstorms wouldn’t stand in the way of a prompt turnover of all Clinton emails. Further, I am willing to bet that more than a few cronies would turn state’s evidence against Hillary respective of far bigger crimes. Sadly, the FBI again seems completely incapable of breaking out the code book and matching her actions with criminal acts. To help, I have compiled just some of the counts that Hillary and her cronies should be facing with respect to contempt and obstruction:
• 18 U.S. Code § 401 – Power of court
o A court of the United States shall have power to punish by fine or imprisonment, or both, at its discretion, such contempt of its authority, and none other, as—
o Misbehavior of any person in its presence or so near thereto as to obstruct the administration of justice;
o Misbehavior of any of its officers in their official transactions;
o Disobedience or resistance to its lawful writ, process, order, rule, decree, or command.
• 18 U.S. Code § 402 – Contempts constituting crimes
o Any person, corporation or association willfully disobeying any lawful writ, process, order, rule, decree, or command of any district court of the United States or any court of the District of Columbia, by doing any act or thing therein, or thereby forbidden, if the act or thing so done be of such character as to constitute also a criminal offense under any statute of the United States or under the laws of any State in which the act was committed, shall be prosecuted for such contempt as provided in section 3691 of this title and shall be punished by a fine under this title or imprisonment, or both.
• 18 U.S. Code § 1505 – Obstruction of proceedings before departments, agencies, and committees
o Whoever, with intent to avoid, evade, prevent, or obstruct compliance, in whole or in part, with any civil investigative demand duly and properly made under the Antitrust Civil Process Act, willfully withholds, misrepresents, removes from any place, conceals, covers up, destroys, mutilates, alters, or by other means falsifies any documentary material, answers to written interrogatories, or oral testimony, which is the subject of such demand; or attempts to do so or solicits another to do so
• 18 U.S. Code § 1519 – Destruction, alteration, or falsification of records in Federal investigations and bankruptcy
o Whoever knowingly alters, destroys, mutilates, conceals, covers up, falsifies, or makes a false entry in any record, document, or tangible object with the intent to impede, obstruct, or influence the investigation or proper administration of any matter within the jurisdiction of any department or agency of the United States or any case filed under title 11, or in relation to or contemplation of any such matter or case, shall be fined under this title, imprisoned not more than 20 years, or both.
The charge sheet doesn’t stop with contempt and obstruction. “Clinton Cash: The Untold Story of How and Why Foreign Governments and Businesses Helped Make Bill and Hillary Rich,” by Peter Schweizer is a very well researched and document book that alone would be enough to go to a Grand Jury and get an indictment for a laundry list of bribery, money laundering, conspiracy, and campaign finance crimes. One familiar with the case law knows that the bar for conviction is not high with particular respect to some of these crimes to include conspiracy. In fact, with bribery, one only needs to be indirectly linked to the bribe and the state only needs to show the accused was “influenced” by that bribe for conviction. Certainly anyone with an unbiased and operating mind can connect the dots between the millions the Clintons received in speaking engagements and Hillary making favorable decisions while in charge of the Department of State for those donors. At minimum, there is no question probable cause exists to open and investigation and conduct a full audit of the Clinton’s finances to include their daughter Chelsea, which received enormous salaries for positions she was unqualified for and effectively did nothing. If there can be any direct or indirect linkage between the Clintons receiving anything of value and a favorable decision being made for the specific donor, the case is made. What is also important to note is that if Hillary is found guilty of any of the bribery or corruption charges, by law, she will be ineligible to hold public office. The specific laws include:
• 18 U.S. Code § 201 – Bribery of public officials and witnesses
o (2) being a public official or person selected to be a public official, directly or indirectly, corruptly demands, seeks, receives, accepts, or agrees to receive or accept anything of value personally or for any other person or entity, in return for:
o being influenced in the performance of any official act;
o being influenced to commit or aid in committing, or to collude in, or allow, any fraud, or make opportunity for the commission of any fraud, on the United States; or
o being induced to do or omit to do any act in violation of the official duty of such official or person;
o shall be fined under this title or not more than three times the monetary equivalent of the thing of value, whichever is greater, or imprisoned for not more than fifteen years, or both, and may be disqualified from holding any office of honor, trust, or profit under the United States.
• 18 U.S. Code § 371 – Conspiracy to commit offense or to defraud United States
• 18 U.S. Code § 208 – Acts affecting a personal financial interest
• 18 U.S. Code § 602 – Solicitation of political contributions
I wish I could say that is all, but someone that has so flagrantly violated so many laws is not likely to have stopped with just these violations. A historical review of the Clintons supports this assessment because they literally have been involved in one scandal after another their entire lives. Some of these include their fraudulent real estate investments related to the “Whitewater” investigation, dodging the draft, perjury, use and trafficking of illegal narcotics, solicitation of prostitution, intimidation of witnesses, sexual assault, rape, and even possibly murder. One alleged criminal incident could be written off as perhaps someone trying to frame or malign them politically, but twice is highly suspect, and three or more times is exactly what it appears. Not just Hillary, but the entire family makes up the criminal elite of our nation. The Clintons are some of the most corrupt people and hold the highest levels of public office.
The evidence is overwhelming. The law is clear. It is the duty of the FBI, the Justice Department, and our courts to not only aggressively investigate, but to prosecute to the full extent of the law these criminals. Nowhere does the law give exception to criminal action because of high office. The Justice Department exists to protect us against just this type of criminal and I expect them to do their job. If they fail to indict Hillary, Congress should cut off all funding of the Justice Department and the agents should resign in protest. Any judge involved should be impeached. At least we could cut our losses and the agents could leave with some honor. However, understand that failure to indict Hillary will be a fatal mistake for our nation. Every agent and employee from the top down at the Justice Department needs to think long and hard about what the future looks like for their kids in a country where the leadership is above the law. The US cannot stand as a free and democratic republic if the rule of law is diminished. Lawlessness and anarchy will be that future.
By Guiles Hendrik
January 30, 2016
Readers of Last Minute Survival are well aware that I have been correctly predicting for years the progression of events in the Middle East toward a total regional conflagration. Speaking broadly of a few key events, I predicted the rise of ISIL, the spread of the “civil war in Syria” to Iraq, and the proxy war between Saudi Arabia (Sunni) and Iran (Shia) going hot. The execution of a prominent dissident Shiite cleric in Saudi Arabia just took this conflict one notch closer to a total war, which the United States is not prepared. The brewing war has triggered a nuclear arms race in the Middle East and it now appears averting a massive war will not be possible. The only question is how to best mitigate the damage.
This escalation has not been fully appreciated in the US and in fact seems to have been discounted by the US Department of State, which will certainly be “surprised” when both countries begin to mobilize their militaries. Both nations are now moving toward a war footing, which has initiated a secret nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Iran knows Saudi Arabia has a far more modern military and the backing of the United States, the Gulf Coast Countries, and possibly Israel, Turkey, and Pakistan. Iran is also threatened by Saudi backed Sunni extremists fighting to overthrow its allies to the west in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon while being boxed in by another Saudi backed Sunni extremist group, the Taliban, to its east in Afghanistan. Iran knows Pakistan has agreed to supply Saudi Arabia with nuclear weapons. Iran’s generals are not stupid and assess that they must obtain nuclear weapons if they have any hope of successfully defending Iran. They are also racing to improve their anti-access and missile technologies to thwart any type of amphibious invasion from the US while effectively being able to attack Saudi Arabia’s water and oil installations from afar. Further, as I have warned, Iran has been racing to operationally deploy advanced, Russian, S-300 air defense systems, which will effectively deny Iranian airspace to all but 5th Generation fighter/attack aircraft.
As overwhelming as the odds may seem to Iran, Saudi Arabia is justifiably terrified of a powerful Iran. What Iran lacks in high tech military hardware, it has in willpower and individual fighting capability, which will prove far more potent than anything the Saudis can muster for a war. Those of us that have worked with the Saudi military know that the Saudi military is a paper tiger. The Saudis are lazy and incompetent as warriors, but they have a big checkbook that keeps the US military industrial complex in business. This keeps Washington and the Pentagon from ever effectively addressing the issue, which will become brutally apparent when a direct conflict between the nations breaks out. In a head to head fight, Iran’s fighters are better trained, better organized, and far more motivated than even the best Saudi units. In fact, aside from perhaps Jordan, the Arab armies are a joke. Most are probably more likely to shoot each other (intentionally or not) before ever fielding an effective force against an enemy. Further, although Iran has proven its ability to project forces beyond its borders successfully, and would no doubt use Iraq as a staging area for a land invasion of Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia has no such force projection capability. Without the ability to actually invade and defeat Iran, Saudi Arabia could only at best win a partial victory over Iran. As such, Saudi Arabia must rely on buying off Washington to intervene and fight its war with American troops and treasure. The Pentagon at least gets this, but what isn’t well understood by either the generals or the White House is that the Saudi backup plan if Washington bulks is to have a credible nuclear weapons capability that they will use if Washington won’t act. The US is totally unprepared for and to date has no policy to even remotely address. Read more
It comes as no surprise to my readers that not only is ISIL still alive and well as a terrorist state, but arguably has grown in power since the United States began military operations “against” it. I have routinely published on the fact that the US has no strategy and its leaders are an amateurish joke. Further, I have been documenting for years that ISIL was born and bred by the CIA as a proxy to serve elitist interests and therefore won’t be “destroyed” anytime soon. Since then, not only have senior US leaders such as the former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, General Flynn confirmed this fact, but Russia has called our bluff and has shown in just a matter of weeks how quickly ISIL could be smashed if the US actually had a policy to defeat the terrorist nation. Now that the truth that the US created ISIL is out in the open source and ISIL has predictably grown out of control, should the US actually decide that wiping out the terrorist army they created would be wise, today I discuss what that strategy would entail. Ironically, even a very general strategy is far more detailed than anything the US has so far put together. To illustrate just how incompetent our senior leadership is in this regard, Hillary Clinton recently announced that her strategy to defeat ISIL was to “defeat ISIL.” Really? It is a wonder ISIL doesn’t control more territory with such moronic imbeciles at the helm. In order to help these moronic policy makers and senior military officers, let me lay out a basic strategic plan against ISIL.
To begin, let me dispense with your failed Irregular Warfare (IW) approaches, which policy makers love because they think they can win a war on the cheap. The historical record is quite clear; IW does not decisively win wars, it creates them. This distinction in military manuals and training unfortunately is all but absent. Only through determined deliberate action can a war be decisively won. Other than in a few niche applications, arming, training, and equipping proxy armies has never been successful. Cyber-attacks, psychological warfare, economic development, and public relations campaigns are equally ineffective against a violent enemy willing to kill to achieve its goals. “Winning the hearts and minds” is complete bullshit and always has been. This fiction only existed in political circles too scared to acknowledge reality and the brutality that must accompany warfare. Anything short of brutality and violence is not warfare and should never be conflated with war. In fact, if lesser means are suitable, then they should be exhausted. Understanding this would be far healthier for any nation and would lead to a far less liberal use of pseudo-warfare, which is every bit as violent, but just dressed up for political spin. Now that we have dispensed this modern “pseudo-warfare” and IW, which are completely fictitious shams respective of actual military strategies, let’s discuss what a real war against ISIL looks like. I warn you…anything short of the below will only delay a far more brutal and bloody war that ultimately will be fought indiscriminately anyhow or lead to a decisive defeat for the Christian West.
Defeating ISIL like any other enemy requires a full spectrum approach. On the political front, Saudi Arabia and Qatar must be prevented from providing any type of material support to ISIL. In particular, until firm compliance was established, all military sales and forms of foreign aid to the said countries must be immediately ceased. Turkey must also be immediately reigned in and all economic support via the purchase of black market oil must be halted. If Turkey continued to purchase ISIL produced black market oil, pressure should be ratcheted up against Erdogan’s administration to include exclusion from NATO and the EU as well as economic sanction. Turkey must also be forced to accept Kurdish military action against ISIL in Syria by reaffirming their right to defend Turkish sovereign territory against Kurdish terrorist factions such as the PKK. Israel also needs to stay out of it and stop bombing Syrian positions, which by default help ISIL. Respective of Russia, the US needs to work jointly with Russia to share intelligence and coordinate their military offensives to achieve the maximum impact against ISIL. Option B would be for the US to completely stay out of the fight with ISIL, completely cease support to any parties involved, let the primary actors in the Middle East fight it out, and then step back in once the smoke clears. I can entertain either option, which honestly are both viable, but for today’s discussion, I am going to focus on US intervention. Read more