The last week has witnessed some unprecedented changes across the Middle East. These events have moved the entire region closer to a major Sunni-Shia conflict. As such, it is important to review what has occurred and assess if this will lead to a major war. If so, it will have major strategic implications for the US so are you prepared? Read more
Archive for Disaster Preparedness
Spoiler: This is the wild card worst case scenario I warned could materialize.
Before today’s announcement in China’s state run press, we could only speculate what China’s response would be to a war with North Korea. Today, China signaled as directly as China will ever signal that it is prepared to go to war with the United States in the event the US preemptively strikes North Korea or attempts to change the strategic balance in the region. This is a catastrophic game changer that could ultimately lead to a massive nuclear exchange and the deaths of over one billion people. Read more
Too many Americans are completely detached from the horrors of war as the US has enjoyed an unprecedented period of peace within its continental borders. The ability to not know war has been a precious luxury enjoyed for a generation in the US, but is now taken completely for granted. For most, war is just another form of entertainment like sports games and movies. In fact, to the average person, there is literally no distinction between the Hollywood war movies and reality. Why would there be when roughly only four tenths of a percent of the US population is serving in the military and far less have actually fought its wars? This makes it highly likely most Americans don’t even know a vet. There are many problems with this disassociation. However, the most detrimental has been that our nation has become so insulated from war they feel that we can kill with impunity around the globe. Symptomatic of this condition is the apathy Americans demonstrate to our military intervention overseas. We now allow our nation to blindly blunder into global conflict without even a debate. Americans have forgotten the actual human costs and the horrors of what a war is like if it comes to our own shores. This always ends badly and if a war with North Korea begins, we may very soon learn what it is like to see war again on American soil.
Currently, the Trump Administration has overtly entered or continued US involvement in wars in Yemen, Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq without any debate, votes, or justification. Literally, President Trump has picked a new fight every month he has been in office. My fear is that President Trump is now setting the stage for an unavoidable conflict with North Korea making him five for five. Let me be clear, I do not believe President Trump has many options left with North Korea. However, I fear that he will not chose the best courses of action and it will cost the US an incredibly high price. I don’t say this lightly. Conflicts in Syria and Iraq have the potential to spread and end in a disaster for the US in large part because they will financially bankrupt our nation and lead to the wholesale slaughter of millions of innocent people. However, the US has not fought a war since WWII where the adversary had the ability to attack the US mainland. Am I suggesting North Korea has the ability to physically invade the US and pelt of with missiles? No. In fact, North Korea does not have that ability at all. However, North Korea has the ability to asymmetrically attack the US with some of the most horrendous weapons known to man and you need to be prepared.
War with North Korea is looking more and more inevitable. Neither side is willing to back down. If there is to be war, even the best case is still horrible. The best case would be a surprise US nuclear strike against the North Korean regime and its military installations ending the war quickly and with minimal US and allied casualties. A far uglier picture emerges if the Trump Administration opted for, even if just initially, a conventional option. Using conventional weapons would allow North Korea time to deploy not just its conventional weapons, but its chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons. This would almost guarantee Seoul would be reduced to rubble and tens of thousands of American and South Korean casualties would be incurred within the first 24-48 hours of the conflict. If the US and South Korean troops had to conventionally fight the entire war, we would be looking at close to a million casualties and our nation utterly bankrupted by the conflict. Further, this is assuming China doesn’t enter the war, which would truly make it a WWIII endgame scenario and this isn’t at all unlikely.
However, irrespective of the financial cost and the massive loss of life associated with a war in North Korea, Americans, have in their comforts, become totally ignorant of the fact that North Korea has planned for and put in place numerous asymmetric means to attack the US. To be blunt, North Korea is prepared to attack the US homeland in horrific ways should war break out. In particular, over the course of time, North Korea is rumored to have smuggled via diplomatic pouches numerous biological and chemical weapons into the US through its United Nations mission in New York. Disturbingly, once the technology to produce these types of weapons is achieved, and North Korea has achieved it, these weapons are relatively easy to smuggle and very difficult to track. Adding to the problem is that a very small amount of these weapons can inflict large number of casualties. If true, literally every city in the US could be simultaneously attacked with a full range of biological and chemical weapons. In particular, North Korea is already believed to have smuggled VX nerve agent into a foreign country and used it to assassinate a political rival. In larger quantities, VX could be dispersed over crowded areas to inflict large numbers of casualties and to create massive panic in cities like New York and Washington, DC. If not bad enough, a far scarier threat exists. North Korea is believed to have been mass producing anthrax and has likely mass produced other biological weapons such as smallpox, francisella tularensis, and hemorrhagic fever virus. Any one of these agents could be released in densely populated areas and cause a massive number of deaths. Finally, North Korea may have the ability to detonate a space based nuclear weapon over the US releasing an EMP capable of blacking out a large portion of the North American grid. I consider this scenario less likely due to North Korea’s technological challenges and US countermeasures; however, if China becomes involved, the probability of this scenario is 100%. Should that event occur, the US will effectively be destroyed. Before the grid could be rebuilt, some congressional studies estimate that two-thirds of the US population or approximately 200,000,000 people would die. Not even our grandchildren will live to see the US recover from this type of attack. Let that sink in for a moment. The war that President Trump is about to start has the potential to destroy the US.
If what I have just written didn’t scare the hell out of you, you are completely disassociated with reality and need professional help. I am not trying to create panic and I do not subscribe to fear mongering. Unfortunately, reality isn’t always pretty and as much as we would like to deny the uncomfortable, it is critical we recognize threats and dangers. North Korea is a very big threat and far more dangerous than Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan combined. Remember, President Bush believed Afghanistan was going to be a quick war against some illiterate savages, but over a decade and a half later, we are still mired in his war we have already strategically lost. Iraq proved to be another example of Washington’s hubris and overly optimistic military predictions. In fact, the history of warfare demonstrates that in nearly every case, wars prove to be much longer, tougher, and more costly than predicted. Why would anyone think North Korea will be a war any less costly when all indicators say the exact opposite? I am curious because as I type, no fewer than three American aircraft carrier battle groups are steaming towards the Korean Peninsula prepared for a military showdown and nearly no one aside from Ron Paul is urging restraint. I think the answer is that Americans are living in ignorance and have no concept of the hell this war will most likely bring to our lives. Again, war with North Korea may be unavoidable, but we need to have a national discussion and the homeland must be prepared for the consequences.
As with all articles, I don’t just point out the problems. I offer solutions. In this case, the truth is you and I aren’t going to change a damn thing. All we can control is our actions and to a limited degree help those around us. Ideally, now may be a good time to literally leave the US for an extended vacation that lasts until either the war is over or North Korea backs down. I don’t make this recommendation lightly. However, for those that can’t leave or opt to stay, you need to prep your chem/bio response kits. Everyone in your group now should be at minimum carrying a protective mask with new filter in day bags. If you have antidote kits for nerve agents and decon kits for blister agents, those should also be packed and make sure you know how to use them. You should also have antibiotics ready for a biological attack involving a bacterial agent like anthrax. However, if the bio weapon is viral, we are looking at an untreatable megadeath situation and the only real option is to completely isolate your group from all other people until the virus has burned itself out. Wherever you plan to stay, make sure you have an area prepped with provisions and the ability to seal it from the outside with plastic and duct tape at minimum. You also should have enough chem/bio suits prepared for everyone in your group to at least bug out from the hot zone. If you are driving to work, you should have at least one complete suit in your vehicle and a contingency link up plan for everyone else in your group. Listen to me; you need to do this immediately. A war with North Korea is hopefully avoidable, but literally could be launched at any moment in the coming days to weeks.
As for preparations beyond immediate survival, you need to get as much cash on hand as you can withdraw from the banks. If you have the ability to move money to overseas bank accounts, do it now. If you are invested in stocks, you should consider taking profits now and holding them until this crisis passes. Once the market crashes, feel free to re-enter the market and buy up the cheap stocks. This will lead to a market shock and crash if a war breaks out. However, some stocks will likely sky rocket in value. I am personally seeking out companies that specialize in radiological decontamination and chem/bio defenses to invest in. Call it Machiavellian, but a crisis always presents opportunities for those with the foresight to position themselves to seize it. Make sure that person is you. In the interim, please take some basic precautions. I pray for the best, but will be preparing for the worst. We will be very blessed indeed if we can get through this crisis with the homeland unscathed.
By Guiles Hendrik
April 17, 2017
I hate to continually bring you doom and gloom, but in short, the probability that nuclear weapons will be used within the next four years has spiked to its highest levels since the Cuban Missile Crisis. If you haven’t reviewed your contingency plans you should. However, this article is not meant to provide you with detailed bug out plans…search our site for those…it is meant to highlight the growing nuclear risks.
Let’s start with the good news if there is such a thing. Out of the most likely scenarios, only two involve nuclear weapons being used against the continental United States. These are worst case scenarios and involve a nuclear exchange with Russia and or China. The bad news is that the potential for nuclear war with both powers has sharply risen. With respect to Russia, if the US continues to press for regime change in Syria and uses military force, it will force a military confrontation with Russia that could spiral out of control and involve nuclear weapons. Respective of China, it is assessed as unlikely, but possible China would join forces with Russia and Iran against the US if a direct military confrontation breaks out in Syria. However, far more likely is the probability China joins forces with North Korea if a war breaks out and that leads to a nuclear exchange.
Note that North Korea is not listed. North Korea currently does not possess a viable capability to strike the United States. They are rumored to have the ability to detonate a nuclear weapon in space to cause an EMP, but the likelihood of them successfully carrying out this type of attack is very low due to their technical problems and the ability of the US to counter any attack. However, North Korea certainly has the ability to detonate a nuclear weapon on the Korean Peninsula and the chances of this are dramatically increasing. In fact, many analysts believe China no longer has the ability to reign in North Korea and the opportunity to avert a war is now close to zero. If true, there will be a war with North Korea within the next 24 months. Also one must consider North Korea has a full range of chemical and biological weapons that they most likely would use in the event of war prompting a nuclear response by the US. Adding to the danger is the fact any conventional land war in Korea could quickly cause over a million casualties. The costs would be too high for the US to tolerate and the war would quickly go nuclear, if not from the onset, contrary to what many people in the US may believe. As such, in the event of war with North Korea, it will be a nuclear war. If China remains out of the conflict, we will be relatively safe in the US. However, if China becomes involved, we will see many people die both abroad and domestically.
While everyone is distracted with their own problems, tensions are once again rising between Pakistan and India. Both countries have nuclear weapons and events could flare into open conflict again and lead to the use of nuclear weapons. However, the probability of this is low over the next four years.
Finally, Israel must be assessed. Israel will not tolerate Iran developing a nuclear weapons capability. Should Israel become convinced that Iran has continued with its weapons development, it will use tactical nuclear weapons to neutralize the program. Fortunately, Israel and the US have once again moved closer and will likely coordinate on any war with Iran allowing the US time to de-escalate the situation or at least get out of the way before Israel launches an attack. This is a wild card scenario because the probability is highly dependent upon other events across the world. Should the US press with regime change in Syria, Iran will most likely use its 122,000 Shia militiamen in Iraq to overrun the Green Zone and attack US forces in Iraq and then Syria. This could quickly force the US out of the Middle East leaving Israel to fend for itself increasing the probability of a war with Iran. However, should the US destroy North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, it will greatly decrease the odds of war with Iran. Most don’t realize this hidden fact, but Iran has off-shored its nuclear program to North Korea where it has been conducting its weapons development unabated. Should North Korea be allowed to continue its program, Iran by default will gain a nuclear weapons capability. Should North Korea be stopped, Iran will also be severely set back.
In conclusion, for the first time in decades, the probabilities for various scenarios where nuclear weapons are used are increasing dramatically across the board. It is alarming and experts are taking note. In fact, the odds are now so high, it is safe to assess that a nuclear device will most likely be used within the next four years. If this conclusion doesn’t get your attention, there is probably nothing that can be said to wake you from your brain dead zombielike existence. Now is the time to get your Plan B ready because events could spiral quickly out of control in the very near future.
By Guiles Hendrik
April 10, 2017
Much has been made of President Trump’s proposed domestic policies as he was sworn in today as the 45th President of the United States. However, as all eyes are focused on Washington, DC, President Trump’s first major political test may have already materialized. North Korea has threatened it will conduct an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test in violation of international sanctions. President Trump had already stated that any North Korean launch “won’t happen,” (See: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/02/world/asia/trump-twitter-north-korea-missiles-china.html?_r=0) so a showdown between the US and North Korea is underway. How each side acts and responds could literally mean the US engages in a nuclear war with North Korea potentially within a week. Read more
One of the single biggest mistakes preppers make is that they buy into the myth that relocating to a small region in the North West corner of the United States is their “best” chance of survival. As you now know from my previous three articles in this series, this theory is inaccurate and is not based on any sound research. Further, it causes people to unnecessarily incur significant additional costs and difficulties when developing their preparedness plans. However, what you still may not know is that there is a large body of empirical evidence that repeatedly demonstrates people living in isolated, remote areas are often at the greatest risk during wide spread social chaos and collapse. Not coincidentally, these people also suffer some of the most hardships. Therefore, with respect to our contemporary situation in the United States, preppers relocating to Idaho with the explicit intent to escape an oppressive government and or are planning to escape widespread instability during a systemic collapse of the system might very well be signing their death warrants. Instead, contrary to contemporary prepping strategies, it would be better to be closer if not in the midst of a more densely populated area.
I understand what I just wrote probably sent many readers into anger and shock. Nonetheless, it is far better to get the right information now then to continue along a misguided path to destruction. No doubt, some readers will immediately discount what I am about to say because they are blinded by their own preconceived biases. I cannot help those people. Thankfully, the majority of my readers are intelligent thinking people that will quickly grasp the conclusions to be drawn from the evidence and modify their preparedness strategies accordingly. In fact, don’t take my word alone, I invite everyone to conduct their own independent research into our prepping assumptions and disseminate their findings.
My theories seem counterintuitive to the premise that the farther from people you are, the farther from harm you are. This is because the basic assumptions of this safety distance premise are flawed. As the theory goes, in the event of a collapse or major catastrophe, being located away from people in a remote, self-sufficient redoubt is your best chance. I have already discussed why the 300 mile rule is a useless metric and that the notion of a “Golden Horde” of refugees fleeing a city and destroying all in their wake is equally unfounded and completely untrue. The last pillar of this theory is that being isolated conveys additional survival benefits. To test it accurately, one must evaluate case studies from around the world and then correctly apply them to a realistic scenario domestically. Read more
Before I post Part IV, I want to pause and recap the huge amount of ground already covered in parts one and two of this series (See links below to read and catch up). Previously, I showed that the most common assumptions preppers base their relocation decisions on are completely false and actually counterproductive to outright dangerous. The research I presented is groundbreaking within our community because it completely overturned the very foundation of what many have spent a lifetime basing their preps around. Understandably, some people within the prepper community have received the new information as radical heresy and immediately took to the defense. When new information is presented to any community, this visceral reaction is to be expected. After all, it challenged their entire basis for their preps and in this case, proved that much of their foundational assumptions were based on bad information. Read more
In part one of our series on “Prepper Relocation,” I directly addressed a common false logic amongst preppers that led to bad conclusions regarding why one should relocate to Idaho. Specifically, I challenged the idea that a bunker was a viable long term survival strategy for a major catastrophe many prep for such as nuclear war. Simply establishing a second residence in a modern first world location like Santiago, Singapore, or New Zealand offer far better options for survival, both physically and economically, than hiding in a hole while a nuclear war is carried out above you. Today, I continue the slaughter of the sacred cows and challenge the merits of relocating to a site far from other people. As I previously discussed, relocation isn’t a subject to take lightly. It may be the single most important decision a prepper makes and therefore any plan should be heavily vetted before time and money is invested in executing it. Therefore, one must consider counter arguments to contemporary “expert” recommendations. By leveraging the information in this series, you will be far better prepared to develop a personalized answer to what truly is you “best prepper place to relocate.”
Contemporary prepper logic states that the farther your relocation site is from dense centers of population, the better. In fact, the magic number often touted is that you must be at least 300 miles from any major population center. However, is this really the case? This is very important because if 300 miles is accurate, it severely constrains your relocation options. If it is not a valid constraint, then suddenly you have many good options for relocation depending on the specific scenario you are prepping for. As such, let’s examine what that conclusion is premised upon. Breaking the theory down, you have two main hypotheses to vet. The first is that 300 miles provides a necessary and adequate buffer from an urban center. The second is that from said urban area a horde of starving refugees will emerge and overrun your redoubt.
Let me be the first to tell you neither hypothesis constituting this prepper theory, which to date has been held up as prepper law, is valid. Read more
I routinely read articles online where individuals pontificate about where the best places for preppers to live or relocate too are. What I don’t usually see is any real cognitive effort to do a realistic analysis and assessment. This should be a red flag. Selecting your relocation site is one of the most important decisions a prepper must make. It is too important to be made on hearsay and opinions. Therefore, I am going to question that contemporary prepper relocation logic. I am going to debunk common myths and offer better alternatives that will help you develop a personalized answer to what truly is you “best prepper place to relocate.” When this series is complete, you will be armed with critical information necessary for identifying your ideal relocation spot. Don’t be surprised if after this eye opening series your philosophy on how you previously evaluated and envisioned your relocation site looks completely different.
Most preparedness “experts” would define the common prepper relocation logic is to find a place as far as possible from other people in an area still suitable for an off-grid, self-sustaining lifestyle. This implies the location has ample water, good soil, and a good growing season. Add a couple wild card factors like being outside the blast radius and fallout pattern of a nuclear detonation and avoiding known earthquake prone areas and most preppers conclude that Idaho is the choice destination. James Wesley Rawles, a man well known and respected throughout the prepper community and a recognized expert on the field is a big advocate of this relocation option. In Rawles’ defense, Idaho may indeed be a good location for some preppers for some reasons. However, Rawles and many others are basing many of their primary assumptions on outdated information, obsolete tactics and techniques, and generally old school logic that when tested in real world scenarios, fails. I don’t take this indictment lightly. If we get this wrong, we die and that is why it is so important we first question some of the fundamental assumptions the conventional prepper relocation plan is based upon. Read more
Tomorrow, Friday July 15th has been announced as a “day of rage” to protest perceived social injustices across the nation. Most major metropolitan areas have been identified as areas targeted by possible protests. Now, just because a day of rage is called for online, it doesn’t mean anyone will turn out. However, based on past Black Lives Matter (BLM) events that turned violent, it would be wise to take precautions out of an abundance of caution. So what should you do if you happen to live, work, or pass through these named areas?
I have written many pieces over the years explaining how to prepare for the mobs rioting and burning our cities during times of social unrest. Per my piece in June, I detailed how to defend against fire, which may be your most pressing threat during a riot. (See: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2016/06/06/how-to-protect-your-home-from-rioting-mobs-using-fire-as-a-weapon/ ) I also have discussed in detail how to organize your community into a common defense since private citizens, NOT law enforcement have proven time and again to be your best defense for life and property against the mob. (See stories listed at: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/?s=ferguson) For extremely bad situations, we have also put together the Civilian Response Force composed of volunteer citizens from across to the nation willing to help those located in high threat or disaster areas. (See: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2015/01/21/lms-civilian-response-team-ferguson-conundrum-solved-by-community-security/) All of these articles present a coherent comprehensive strategy for the defense of you and your community and should be reviewed in detail.
Specific to those needing to make “last minute” preparations for tomorrow’s planned “day of rage” touted as a “peaceful” event, I would recommend the following.
Family: Get any non-essential family members out of the danger area. If you can, have them stay with family or friends until you know it is safe to return. Before parting ways, make sure everyone knows your plan in the event you need to bug out and ensure that includes a “no-comms” plan.
Fire: Go to Costco or similar store and make a bulk purchase of fire extinguishers. Chemical extinguishers that work on gasoline/petroleum and electrical fires are optimum. Place these extinguishers in easy to access locations close to any windows and doors of your home and on all levels of your home. If you have any combustible material around your house, remove it. Be especially vigilant to get rid of gas cans and such in easily accessible locations like sheds and outbuildings that a rioting mob could easily access.
Preparations for Defense: Prep your kit for either bugging out or the defense. Weapons, ammunition, and any other associated items like body armor should be staged and ready if the situation deteriorates and dictates the need to defend your home and family. If the situation becomes hopeless (block is engulfed in fire, overrun, etc.) be prepared to bug out. Have a go bag staged and multiple evacuation routes and options ready for execution. Make sure you let at least one other trusted person know your whereabouts and plans should you need to execute a bug out.
Medical: Inventory, update, prep, and stage any medical equipment you have or intend to use in a casualty collection point. This should be somewhere safe in your home and could be a safe room, basement, or internal room with no windows and doors. The most critical items such as tourniquets should be staged and at the ready.
Vehicles: Any vehicles that you cannot store inside a locked garage should be driven and stored outside of the area of disorder. Vehicles left along streets are likely to be vandalized, stolen, or torched during riots. If you chose to keep a vehicle at your residence, make sure it is prepared to be used to bug out on short order. That means any tools, extraction equipment, and hardening should be complete. Any maintenance should be done. Make sure the vehicle is fully gassed. Also make sure your spare tire(s) are easily accessible and your tire change equipment is staged if you don’t use run flat tires.
Community: Now is a good time to coordinate your plans with likeminded individuals in your neighborhood. Optimally, there are at least a few other people on your block that will be prepared and ready to react if your area is targeted by the mob. Have a plan to communicate, react, and provide mutual support. If you are short on manpower, access your prepper network for friends from out of town willing to come into town and establish security at and around your home. Respective of the rest of the neighborhood, assume they are sympathetic to other causes and even possibly hostile to anyone bearing arms in defense of their homes and family so keep a low profile unless the situation dictates.
Travel/Business: If you do not live in said high threat area, but must travel through it or work in the immediate area, you must also take precautions. Make sure you have your bug out bag with you and your primary, alternative, and emergency evacuation plans are made and ready to execute. Monitor the radio for signs of trouble and have your cell phone with a backup battery ready. Make sure you dress appropriately and assume you may have to move miles on foot.
Be safe by being prepared.
By Guiles Hendrik
July 14, 2016
This week I read a piece by “Mac” MacWelch of Advanced Survival Training (http://www.advancedsurvivaltraining.com/). In it he argues that the lone wolf survivor is a myth. Unless preppers set aside small differences and organize your chances of surviving a true chaos event is small. I am glad to see his article and completely agree. I have been working for years to educate people on this exact subject and I am very happy to see attitudes and minds within the greater prepper community have finally begun to embrace this very basic, but very critical aspect of survival. I don’t want to understate the importance of this survival attitude gaining traction. Once “preppers” start to see themselves as a part of a greater community instead of independent and fearful of the community, we will make significant progress toward free, safe, and independent lives.
I want to reference my article from 2013 on the “Greatest Prepper Weakness.” (See: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2013/12/02/overcoming-the-greatest-prepper-weakness-the-individual-versus-the-community-and-a-plan-for-the-future/) The article garnered quite a bit of response from individuals across the US, but it was clear that it woke people up. I ask all of you to read it and ponder what is being proposed. Like Mac, I argue that preppers must erase the walk away and hide till it’s over mentality because it isn’t a viable survival strategy. This isn’t just my opinion. It is based on learned real life experience and what I practice. (See: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2015/01/27/when-the-shtf-you-can-come-to-my-placeseriously/) I have witnessed nations in all stages of chaos and in every single place the people that were doing the best were the ones that stuck together in big groups. Those of you that still feel that you can run to the mountains and lock yourself in your bunker I applaud your preparations, but ask you to reconsider your actual survival odds versus uniting with other like-minded people with diverse and useful skillsets. If you really feel your preps are sufficient, please write me and we can discuss hundreds of real world examples that prove beyond any doubt the strategy does not work beyond a very short term. The articles provide a plan of action and not just arguments about how best to prep. Only by uniting, putting aside petty differences, and working toward the greater good will we come out of this in good order. Feel free to contact me with questions, but for now, I wish you all the best of luck and hope to see you in my community someday.
By Guiles Hendrik
July 12, 2016
Massive and devastating escalation of War in Syria looms as Syrian Forces backed by Russia are poised to retake Aleppo: Saudi Arabia and Turkey prepare to deploy armies to Syria in response
This is an alert to all of my readers of a potentially imminent global crisis. We are not at the point of a full blown crisis yet, but I am telling everyone they need to not get, but, BE ready for things rapidly to turn very bad within 30-60 days. I will be closely monitoring this situation and will provide updates as necessary.
While most Americans are distracted by the Super Bowl and the disgusting Jerry Springeresque political theater we call an election process, the world is rapidly descending toward a major, devastating war that will ultimately involve more Americans than both Afghanistan and Iraq combined. Make no mistake, the situation developing in the Middle East is extremely grave and the US government has lost all control. I have warned repeatedly about ignoring the last off ramps to peace in the Middle East and what the result would be. Well, now another prediction has come to pass as Russian backed Syrian troops are poised to retake Aleppo from the murderous Islamic savages and Saudi Arabia and Turkey prepare to militarily join the fight.
One quick look at a map will demonstrate the strategic significance of Aleppo for rebels fighting in Syria. Most critical to the mix of rebel elements still holding Aleppo is that it provides access to key supply lines originating in Turkey. If Aleppo falls, the primary rebel supply line will be cut and the rebels will face a near imminent defeat. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar are the primary backers of rebel forces in Syria and know this means their policy is about to collapse and Shia Iran will become the region’s hegemon. This also petrifies countries like Israel that have remained mostly quiet about the civil war even though they too are deeply involved. As a result, these countries are preparing to commit military forces to prevent Aleppo’s fall. As I have repeatedly warned, this will escalate the conflict significantly and rapidly. See: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/?s=syria
Make no mistake; the US has been on the wrong side of this war. I welcome the advance of Russian backed Syrian forces smashing the rebel forces, which are primarily composed of radical Islamic extremists that have been brutally murdering thousands of innocent people to include Christians. However, as I have repeatedly predicted, if one side in the proxy war primarily between Iran and Saudi Arabia gains a decisive advantage, it would force the other to quadruple down (they have already doubled and tripled) on their policy. At this point, that means putting their troops in actually face to face battle. As I warned for years and literally predicted, Saudi Arabia has now announced it is preparing to deploy its troops to Syria. See: http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/02/general-saudi-arabia-set-deploy-troops-syria-160205042542486.html
The arrival of Gulf Arab armies in Syria will be in a single word, catastrophic. The US long ago lost effective control of the conflict it in large part created, but MUST stop this deployment or risk the outbreak of a full scale regional and possibly world war. The notion that an alliance of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, and Kuwait, the same countries that have collectively spent billions arming and supporting ISIL, will now move to destroy ISIL defies all logic. In fact, it is so politically ridiculous that it is in fact a thinly veiled lie. Instead, Saudi Arabia and Turkey will lead an army into Syria with only one goal and that is to overthrow President Assad. Rather than fighting the radical terrorist elements such as ISIL, they will back them by recasting them as “moderate rebels.” Russia, Iraq, Iran, and Hezbollah will not be fooled by this and proportionally escalate. This sets the stage for a massive and devastating escalation. Read more
Black Friday hit world stock markets causing almost three trillion dollars in losses. As I predicted, this summer’s crash initiated a far larger crash cycle that is now returning with a fury. The Chinese contagion that was said to be “contained” by our leaders is anything but contained. It is now clear China’s economic crash wasn’t averted; it was just temporarily masked and delayed. Further, oil prices continue their steep decline and now are under 30 dollars a barrel. Also, 2015’s economic numbers are in and 2015 was the year global economies fell back into chaos. With compounding bad economic news in all markets globally, what can we expect going forward?
I have for years told advocates of energy independence that it isn’t $200 dollars a barrel for oil that I fear, but rather $20 a barrel. Most “experts” thought that by reducing our reliance on Middle Eastern oil supplies, we would somehow achieve greater stability. I correctly warned that if you want to see real chaos, drop the oil prices to $37 or below. Well, today, oil prices broke below the key technical floor of $30 per barrel and barring any intervention by Saudi Arabia to reduce oil production, we are going to soon test the $20 mark. Even before hitting the $37 mark, it was clear stability in the Middle East had gone from really bad to near worst case scenario. At the $20 per barrel mark something must break. Whether Saudi Arabia takes and knee and gives into OPEC pressure to cut production or a war breaks out, no oil producing country can continue to endure this price point much longer. This downward spiral in the oil market will only add to the vast problems in the Middle East and before the region rebalances, it is very likely more countries will collapse. With near certainty, the old geographic boundaries of the Middle East will be completely redrawn and it is increasingly likely we are seeing the first waves of what will eventually turn into a major collapse of Saudi Arabia. Read more