The last week has witnessed some unprecedented changes across the Middle East. These events have moved the entire region closer to a major Sunni-Shia conflict. As such, it is important to review what has occurred and assess if this will lead to a major war. If so, it will have major strategic implications for the US so are you prepared? Read more
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Too many Americans are completely detached from the horrors of war as the US has enjoyed an unprecedented period of peace within its continental borders. The ability to not know war has been a precious luxury enjoyed for a generation in the US, but is now taken completely for granted. For most, war is just another form of entertainment like sports games and movies. In fact, to the average person, there is literally no distinction between the Hollywood war movies and reality. Why would there be when roughly only four tenths of a percent of the US population is serving in the military and far less have actually fought its wars? This makes it highly likely most Americans don’t even know a vet. There are many problems with this disassociation. However, the most detrimental has been that our nation has become so insulated from war they feel that we can kill with impunity around the globe. Symptomatic of this condition is the apathy Americans demonstrate to our military intervention overseas. We now allow our nation to blindly blunder into global conflict without even a debate. Americans have forgotten the actual human costs and the horrors of what a war is like if it comes to our own shores. This always ends badly and if a war with North Korea begins, we may very soon learn what it is like to see war again on American soil.
Currently, the Trump Administration has overtly entered or continued US involvement in wars in Yemen, Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq without any debate, votes, or justification. Literally, President Trump has picked a new fight every month he has been in office. My fear is that President Trump is now setting the stage for an unavoidable conflict with North Korea making him five for five. Let me be clear, I do not believe President Trump has many options left with North Korea. However, I fear that he will not chose the best courses of action and it will cost the US an incredibly high price. I don’t say this lightly. Conflicts in Syria and Iraq have the potential to spread and end in a disaster for the US in large part because they will financially bankrupt our nation and lead to the wholesale slaughter of millions of innocent people. However, the US has not fought a war since WWII where the adversary had the ability to attack the US mainland. Am I suggesting North Korea has the ability to physically invade the US and pelt of with missiles? No. In fact, North Korea does not have that ability at all. However, North Korea has the ability to asymmetrically attack the US with some of the most horrendous weapons known to man and you need to be prepared.
War with North Korea is looking more and more inevitable. Neither side is willing to back down. If there is to be war, even the best case is still horrible. The best case would be a surprise US nuclear strike against the North Korean regime and its military installations ending the war quickly and with minimal US and allied casualties. A far uglier picture emerges if the Trump Administration opted for, even if just initially, a conventional option. Using conventional weapons would allow North Korea time to deploy not just its conventional weapons, but its chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons. This would almost guarantee Seoul would be reduced to rubble and tens of thousands of American and South Korean casualties would be incurred within the first 24-48 hours of the conflict. If the US and South Korean troops had to conventionally fight the entire war, we would be looking at close to a million casualties and our nation utterly bankrupted by the conflict. Further, this is assuming China doesn’t enter the war, which would truly make it a WWIII endgame scenario and this isn’t at all unlikely.
However, irrespective of the financial cost and the massive loss of life associated with a war in North Korea, Americans, have in their comforts, become totally ignorant of the fact that North Korea has planned for and put in place numerous asymmetric means to attack the US. To be blunt, North Korea is prepared to attack the US homeland in horrific ways should war break out. In particular, over the course of time, North Korea is rumored to have smuggled via diplomatic pouches numerous biological and chemical weapons into the US through its United Nations mission in New York. Disturbingly, once the technology to produce these types of weapons is achieved, and North Korea has achieved it, these weapons are relatively easy to smuggle and very difficult to track. Adding to the problem is that a very small amount of these weapons can inflict large number of casualties. If true, literally every city in the US could be simultaneously attacked with a full range of biological and chemical weapons. In particular, North Korea is already believed to have smuggled VX nerve agent into a foreign country and used it to assassinate a political rival. In larger quantities, VX could be dispersed over crowded areas to inflict large numbers of casualties and to create massive panic in cities like New York and Washington, DC. If not bad enough, a far scarier threat exists. North Korea is believed to have been mass producing anthrax and has likely mass produced other biological weapons such as smallpox, francisella tularensis, and hemorrhagic fever virus. Any one of these agents could be released in densely populated areas and cause a massive number of deaths. Finally, North Korea may have the ability to detonate a space based nuclear weapon over the US releasing an EMP capable of blacking out a large portion of the North American grid. I consider this scenario less likely due to North Korea’s technological challenges and US countermeasures; however, if China becomes involved, the probability of this scenario is 100%. Should that event occur, the US will effectively be destroyed. Before the grid could be rebuilt, some congressional studies estimate that two-thirds of the US population or approximately 200,000,000 people would die. Not even our grandchildren will live to see the US recover from this type of attack. Let that sink in for a moment. The war that President Trump is about to start has the potential to destroy the US.
If what I have just written didn’t scare the hell out of you, you are completely disassociated with reality and need professional help. I am not trying to create panic and I do not subscribe to fear mongering. Unfortunately, reality isn’t always pretty and as much as we would like to deny the uncomfortable, it is critical we recognize threats and dangers. North Korea is a very big threat and far more dangerous than Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan combined. Remember, President Bush believed Afghanistan was going to be a quick war against some illiterate savages, but over a decade and a half later, we are still mired in his war we have already strategically lost. Iraq proved to be another example of Washington’s hubris and overly optimistic military predictions. In fact, the history of warfare demonstrates that in nearly every case, wars prove to be much longer, tougher, and more costly than predicted. Why would anyone think North Korea will be a war any less costly when all indicators say the exact opposite? I am curious because as I type, no fewer than three American aircraft carrier battle groups are steaming towards the Korean Peninsula prepared for a military showdown and nearly no one aside from Ron Paul is urging restraint. I think the answer is that Americans are living in ignorance and have no concept of the hell this war will most likely bring to our lives. Again, war with North Korea may be unavoidable, but we need to have a national discussion and the homeland must be prepared for the consequences.
As with all articles, I don’t just point out the problems. I offer solutions. In this case, the truth is you and I aren’t going to change a damn thing. All we can control is our actions and to a limited degree help those around us. Ideally, now may be a good time to literally leave the US for an extended vacation that lasts until either the war is over or North Korea backs down. I don’t make this recommendation lightly. However, for those that can’t leave or opt to stay, you need to prep your chem/bio response kits. Everyone in your group now should be at minimum carrying a protective mask with new filter in day bags. If you have antidote kits for nerve agents and decon kits for blister agents, those should also be packed and make sure you know how to use them. You should also have antibiotics ready for a biological attack involving a bacterial agent like anthrax. However, if the bio weapon is viral, we are looking at an untreatable megadeath situation and the only real option is to completely isolate your group from all other people until the virus has burned itself out. Wherever you plan to stay, make sure you have an area prepped with provisions and the ability to seal it from the outside with plastic and duct tape at minimum. You also should have enough chem/bio suits prepared for everyone in your group to at least bug out from the hot zone. If you are driving to work, you should have at least one complete suit in your vehicle and a contingency link up plan for everyone else in your group. Listen to me; you need to do this immediately. A war with North Korea is hopefully avoidable, but literally could be launched at any moment in the coming days to weeks.
As for preparations beyond immediate survival, you need to get as much cash on hand as you can withdraw from the banks. If you have the ability to move money to overseas bank accounts, do it now. If you are invested in stocks, you should consider taking profits now and holding them until this crisis passes. Once the market crashes, feel free to re-enter the market and buy up the cheap stocks. This will lead to a market shock and crash if a war breaks out. However, some stocks will likely sky rocket in value. I am personally seeking out companies that specialize in radiological decontamination and chem/bio defenses to invest in. Call it Machiavellian, but a crisis always presents opportunities for those with the foresight to position themselves to seize it. Make sure that person is you. In the interim, please take some basic precautions. I pray for the best, but will be preparing for the worst. We will be very blessed indeed if we can get through this crisis with the homeland unscathed.
By Guiles Hendrik
April 17, 2017
Here is a free piece of political advice. When your enemies begin condoning your actions, you should be very worried. President Trump has for the first time enjoyed what he believes to be the “support” and approval of the Establishment after launching a cruise missile attack against a Syrian air base. However, he would be a fool to think they are cheering on his actions because they support his policy. In fact, the Establishment is really laughing as they lead him by his ego down the path to destruction in Syria. As I have repeatedly warned, the Syrian Civil War is a trap and will not just take down the Trump Administration, but will bring down the United States if it becomes entangled in the conflict. Read more
Let me get right to the point. President Trump is a complete moron if he honestly believes his military advisors are setting him up for success. I want President Trump to succeed, but until he gets better advisors, he will self-destruct. By ordering a surge of US military forces into Syria without any long term strategy or plan, he is effectively forcing America into the middle of an ugly civil war that will cost our nation dearly. Further, by directly entering the Syrian Civil War, President Trump has committed our nation to yet another unnecessary and unconstitutional war without making the case to the American people or obtaining congressional approval. This won’t just be a massive military mistake; it will be a political disaster. President Trump has no idea that as the US gets sucked further and further into this war, the failure of “his” war will arm his political enemies with everything they need to ultimately cripple his administration. By listening to the generals, President Trump has, within a month of taking office, committed the US to an even more disastrous war than his predecessors, which he will lose, and quite possibly destroy his administration. Brilliant! Read more
The current “deal” with Iran over its nuclear program is better defined as policy capitulation. To be viable, the deal must have teeth and achieve the endstate desired by the United States. The current “deal” with Iran is neither and ultimately does not stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Therefore, a renegotiation of the treaty is necessary to avoid war. However, war may still be the inevitable result of either doing nothing or trying to force a renegotiation the Iranians are unwilling to engage in. If Iran continues to get closer to a nuclear weapon, there will be a major war irrespective of whether or not the US wants it. Further, if Iran feels cornered, it may simply refuse to renegotiate anything and regionally retaliate against US pressure leading to a military engagement. Iran isn’t a paper tiger and has the ability cause the US significant problems if we do drive a hard bargain. Donald Trump will need to understand this in finite detail or the US will pay in blood and treasure abroad and at home. Read more
The following summary of recent world events is decidedly negative. This is not due to overt pessimism as much as the facts are just plain bad. In fact, I didn’t even include events like the effects of Hurricane Mathew, the attack on our warship off the coast of Yemen, and the assassination of more police around the US. The world is not getting any safer and indicators are all pointing to things worsening as we move into late fall and winter. The following are major events you should be taking note of with short comments.
- Situation in Syria: Syrian government forces backed by Iran and Russia continue to pound Aleppo and are nearing a strategic breakthrough. All actors in Syria recognize that if Assad is able to recapture Aleppo from the Islamic extremists it will be the beginning of the end for Washington’s terrorist proxies in Syria. As such, there is panic from Doha to Washington. The terrorist coalition knows that it is now or never for major intervention, which may force the White House to order direct strikes against the Syrian regime, which undoubtedly will be countered by Russian retaliation. This creates the potential for a rapid outbreak of a major regional war that could go global. We have effectively arrived at the point I have repeatedly forecasted would occur in Syria where either Moscow or Washington accepts a massive strategic policy defeat or there is a major war…perhaps both. This is inescapable at this point. The best case scenario is if the US backs out by aligning with Russia to defeat ISIL and negotiate a peace deal that leaves the regime in place for now. This is highly unlikely and if Hillary Clinton is elected, all but impossible.
- I am forecasting that the US will continue to spread false anti-Assad and anti-Russian propaganda to drum up war sentiment in the US to prepare the public for the announcement airstrikes against Syrian military positions. If the neo-cons within the establishment get their way the air strikes will happen, but there will be an immediate cost to US forces. Russia will defend its positions on the ground and engage any US forces that directly threaten Russian lives and interests. In this event, it is possible we will witness the first combat losses of US Fifth Generation Fighters, which Washington is rightfully terrified will occur. The loss of these jets will show everyone how much superiority the US has lost against countries like China under Obama. This will jeopardize the multi-billion dollar acquisition program that has been riddled with corruption, failures, and delays. As such, it is far more likely Washington will lead with cruise missile and drone strikes that are easier to deny and hide if they fail to achieve their objectives, but are also much less likely to achieve decisive results.
One of the single biggest mistakes preppers make is that they buy into the myth that relocating to a small region in the North West corner of the United States is their “best” chance of survival. As you now know from my previous three articles in this series, this theory is inaccurate and is not based on any sound research. Further, it causes people to unnecessarily incur significant additional costs and difficulties when developing their preparedness plans. However, what you still may not know is that there is a large body of empirical evidence that repeatedly demonstrates people living in isolated, remote areas are often at the greatest risk during wide spread social chaos and collapse. Not coincidentally, these people also suffer some of the most hardships. Therefore, with respect to our contemporary situation in the United States, preppers relocating to Idaho with the explicit intent to escape an oppressive government and or are planning to escape widespread instability during a systemic collapse of the system might very well be signing their death warrants. Instead, contrary to contemporary prepping strategies, it would be better to be closer if not in the midst of a more densely populated area.
I understand what I just wrote probably sent many readers into anger and shock. Nonetheless, it is far better to get the right information now then to continue along a misguided path to destruction. No doubt, some readers will immediately discount what I am about to say because they are blinded by their own preconceived biases. I cannot help those people. Thankfully, the majority of my readers are intelligent thinking people that will quickly grasp the conclusions to be drawn from the evidence and modify their preparedness strategies accordingly. In fact, don’t take my word alone, I invite everyone to conduct their own independent research into our prepping assumptions and disseminate their findings.
My theories seem counterintuitive to the premise that the farther from people you are, the farther from harm you are. This is because the basic assumptions of this safety distance premise are flawed. As the theory goes, in the event of a collapse or major catastrophe, being located away from people in a remote, self-sufficient redoubt is your best chance. I have already discussed why the 300 mile rule is a useless metric and that the notion of a “Golden Horde” of refugees fleeing a city and destroying all in their wake is equally unfounded and completely untrue. The last pillar of this theory is that being isolated conveys additional survival benefits. To test it accurately, one must evaluate case studies from around the world and then correctly apply them to a realistic scenario domestically. Read more
Before I post Part IV, I want to pause and recap the huge amount of ground already covered in parts one and two of this series (See links below to read and catch up). Previously, I showed that the most common assumptions preppers base their relocation decisions on are completely false and actually counterproductive to outright dangerous. The research I presented is groundbreaking within our community because it completely overturned the very foundation of what many have spent a lifetime basing their preps around. Understandably, some people within the prepper community have received the new information as radical heresy and immediately took to the defense. When new information is presented to any community, this visceral reaction is to be expected. After all, it challenged their entire basis for their preps and in this case, proved that much of their foundational assumptions were based on bad information. Read more
In part one of our series on “Prepper Relocation,” I directly addressed a common false logic amongst preppers that led to bad conclusions regarding why one should relocate to Idaho. Specifically, I challenged the idea that a bunker was a viable long term survival strategy for a major catastrophe many prep for such as nuclear war. Simply establishing a second residence in a modern first world location like Santiago, Singapore, or New Zealand offer far better options for survival, both physically and economically, than hiding in a hole while a nuclear war is carried out above you. Today, I continue the slaughter of the sacred cows and challenge the merits of relocating to a site far from other people. As I previously discussed, relocation isn’t a subject to take lightly. It may be the single most important decision a prepper makes and therefore any plan should be heavily vetted before time and money is invested in executing it. Therefore, one must consider counter arguments to contemporary “expert” recommendations. By leveraging the information in this series, you will be far better prepared to develop a personalized answer to what truly is you “best prepper place to relocate.”
Contemporary prepper logic states that the farther your relocation site is from dense centers of population, the better. In fact, the magic number often touted is that you must be at least 300 miles from any major population center. However, is this really the case? This is very important because if 300 miles is accurate, it severely constrains your relocation options. If it is not a valid constraint, then suddenly you have many good options for relocation depending on the specific scenario you are prepping for. As such, let’s examine what that conclusion is premised upon. Breaking the theory down, you have two main hypotheses to vet. The first is that 300 miles provides a necessary and adequate buffer from an urban center. The second is that from said urban area a horde of starving refugees will emerge and overrun your redoubt.
Let me be the first to tell you neither hypothesis constituting this prepper theory, which to date has been held up as prepper law, is valid. Read more
I routinely read articles online where individuals pontificate about where the best places for preppers to live or relocate too are. What I don’t usually see is any real cognitive effort to do a realistic analysis and assessment. This should be a red flag. Selecting your relocation site is one of the most important decisions a prepper must make. It is too important to be made on hearsay and opinions. Therefore, I am going to question that contemporary prepper relocation logic. I am going to debunk common myths and offer better alternatives that will help you develop a personalized answer to what truly is you “best prepper place to relocate.” When this series is complete, you will be armed with critical information necessary for identifying your ideal relocation spot. Don’t be surprised if after this eye opening series your philosophy on how you previously evaluated and envisioned your relocation site looks completely different.
Most preparedness “experts” would define the common prepper relocation logic is to find a place as far as possible from other people in an area still suitable for an off-grid, self-sustaining lifestyle. This implies the location has ample water, good soil, and a good growing season. Add a couple wild card factors like being outside the blast radius and fallout pattern of a nuclear detonation and avoiding known earthquake prone areas and most preppers conclude that Idaho is the choice destination. James Wesley Rawles, a man well known and respected throughout the prepper community and a recognized expert on the field is a big advocate of this relocation option. In Rawles’ defense, Idaho may indeed be a good location for some preppers for some reasons. However, Rawles and many others are basing many of their primary assumptions on outdated information, obsolete tactics and techniques, and generally old school logic that when tested in real world scenarios, fails. I don’t take this indictment lightly. If we get this wrong, we die and that is why it is so important we first question some of the fundamental assumptions the conventional prepper relocation plan is based upon. Read more
Here I go again, “just as I previously warned” (See: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/?s=nuclear+arms+race+in+middle+east), Saudi Arabia announced that it will not rule out pursuing nuclear weapons pending any “nefarious” actions by Iran. Naturally, Saudi Arabia wasn’t keen on publicly discussing its most sensitive national defense plans with respect to its greatest threat, Iran; however, it was clear that Saudi’s are not denying they would pursue nuclear weapons.
Whether or not Saudi Arabia has already or intends to obtain nuclear weapons is of huge concern to the region and world. Without doubt, Iran is carefully analyzing these latest statements by Saudi Arabia and there is no way they will be taken as a positive sign in Tehran. As such, the Saudi statement made the region one step more paranoid, which equals one step closer to war. If the Saudis are trying to create the conditions for their own demise, they are doing a great job of it. Clearly, if Yemen is any indication, the new king is not capable of handling the complex geopolitics of the region and may indeed walk the region right into a major war.
By Guiles Hendrik
January 19, 2016
Black Friday hit world stock markets causing almost three trillion dollars in losses. As I predicted, this summer’s crash initiated a far larger crash cycle that is now returning with a fury. The Chinese contagion that was said to be “contained” by our leaders is anything but contained. It is now clear China’s economic crash wasn’t averted; it was just temporarily masked and delayed. Further, oil prices continue their steep decline and now are under 30 dollars a barrel. Also, 2015’s economic numbers are in and 2015 was the year global economies fell back into chaos. With compounding bad economic news in all markets globally, what can we expect going forward?
I have for years told advocates of energy independence that it isn’t $200 dollars a barrel for oil that I fear, but rather $20 a barrel. Most “experts” thought that by reducing our reliance on Middle Eastern oil supplies, we would somehow achieve greater stability. I correctly warned that if you want to see real chaos, drop the oil prices to $37 or below. Well, today, oil prices broke below the key technical floor of $30 per barrel and barring any intervention by Saudi Arabia to reduce oil production, we are going to soon test the $20 mark. Even before hitting the $37 mark, it was clear stability in the Middle East had gone from really bad to near worst case scenario. At the $20 per barrel mark something must break. Whether Saudi Arabia takes and knee and gives into OPEC pressure to cut production or a war breaks out, no oil producing country can continue to endure this price point much longer. This downward spiral in the oil market will only add to the vast problems in the Middle East and before the region rebalances, it is very likely more countries will collapse. With near certainty, the old geographic boundaries of the Middle East will be completely redrawn and it is increasingly likely we are seeing the first waves of what will eventually turn into a major collapse of Saudi Arabia. Read more