Here is a free piece of political advice. When your enemies begin condoning your actions, you should be very worried. President Trump has for the first time enjoyed what he believes to be the “support” and approval of the Establishment after launching a cruise missile attack against a Syrian air base. However, he would be a fool to think they are cheering on his actions because they support his policy. In fact, the Establishment is really laughing as they lead him by his ego down the path to destruction in Syria. As I have repeatedly warned, the Syrian Civil War is a trap and will not just take down the Trump Administration, but will bring down the United States if it becomes entangled in the conflict. Read more
Archive for Economy
The following summary of recent world events is decidedly negative. This is not due to overt pessimism as much as the facts are just plain bad. In fact, I didn’t even include events like the effects of Hurricane Mathew, the attack on our warship off the coast of Yemen, and the assassination of more police around the US. The world is not getting any safer and indicators are all pointing to things worsening as we move into late fall and winter. The following are major events you should be taking note of with short comments.
- Situation in Syria: Syrian government forces backed by Iran and Russia continue to pound Aleppo and are nearing a strategic breakthrough. All actors in Syria recognize that if Assad is able to recapture Aleppo from the Islamic extremists it will be the beginning of the end for Washington’s terrorist proxies in Syria. As such, there is panic from Doha to Washington. The terrorist coalition knows that it is now or never for major intervention, which may force the White House to order direct strikes against the Syrian regime, which undoubtedly will be countered by Russian retaliation. This creates the potential for a rapid outbreak of a major regional war that could go global. We have effectively arrived at the point I have repeatedly forecasted would occur in Syria where either Moscow or Washington accepts a massive strategic policy defeat or there is a major war…perhaps both. This is inescapable at this point. The best case scenario is if the US backs out by aligning with Russia to defeat ISIL and negotiate a peace deal that leaves the regime in place for now. This is highly unlikely and if Hillary Clinton is elected, all but impossible.
- I am forecasting that the US will continue to spread false anti-Assad and anti-Russian propaganda to drum up war sentiment in the US to prepare the public for the announcement airstrikes against Syrian military positions. If the neo-cons within the establishment get their way the air strikes will happen, but there will be an immediate cost to US forces. Russia will defend its positions on the ground and engage any US forces that directly threaten Russian lives and interests. In this event, it is possible we will witness the first combat losses of US Fifth Generation Fighters, which Washington is rightfully terrified will occur. The loss of these jets will show everyone how much superiority the US has lost against countries like China under Obama. This will jeopardize the multi-billion dollar acquisition program that has been riddled with corruption, failures, and delays. As such, it is far more likely Washington will lead with cruise missile and drone strikes that are easier to deny and hide if they fail to achieve their objectives, but are also much less likely to achieve decisive results.
Black Friday hit world stock markets causing almost three trillion dollars in losses. As I predicted, this summer’s crash initiated a far larger crash cycle that is now returning with a fury. The Chinese contagion that was said to be “contained” by our leaders is anything but contained. It is now clear China’s economic crash wasn’t averted; it was just temporarily masked and delayed. Further, oil prices continue their steep decline and now are under 30 dollars a barrel. Also, 2015’s economic numbers are in and 2015 was the year global economies fell back into chaos. With compounding bad economic news in all markets globally, what can we expect going forward?
I have for years told advocates of energy independence that it isn’t $200 dollars a barrel for oil that I fear, but rather $20 a barrel. Most “experts” thought that by reducing our reliance on Middle Eastern oil supplies, we would somehow achieve greater stability. I correctly warned that if you want to see real chaos, drop the oil prices to $37 or below. Well, today, oil prices broke below the key technical floor of $30 per barrel and barring any intervention by Saudi Arabia to reduce oil production, we are going to soon test the $20 mark. Even before hitting the $37 mark, it was clear stability in the Middle East had gone from really bad to near worst case scenario. At the $20 per barrel mark something must break. Whether Saudi Arabia takes and knee and gives into OPEC pressure to cut production or a war breaks out, no oil producing country can continue to endure this price point much longer. This downward spiral in the oil market will only add to the vast problems in the Middle East and before the region rebalances, it is very likely more countries will collapse. With near certainty, the old geographic boundaries of the Middle East will be completely redrawn and it is increasingly likely we are seeing the first waves of what will eventually turn into a major collapse of Saudi Arabia. Read more
Think cheap oil is good for the economy? Not when it is caused by low demand from economies in free fall. This may come as a surprise to some Americans currently enjoying the price of much cheaper gas, but if you are a Canadian, you are suffering as your currency is rapidly losing its value. The Canadian lesson should serve as a reminder that this can and will happen even in First World countries.
How would it affect you to see your grocery bills increase by 5%, then 10%, then 30%, then even higher? Canadians are suffering this reality today. Prices of food items increased as much as 38% in 2015. (See: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/econ155b-eng.htm) However, this is using the government’s averaged figures and totally discounts areas in Canada where prices have spiked far higher. What is worse, 2016 is already on track to see even higher price spikes and Canadians literally unable to afford even the basic food staples. Soon Canada could be experiencing a true food emergency. Read more
Last week, I warned that Russia has become the country with the ability to push the Middle East into a major war. In particular, Russia cannot and will not tolerate Saudi Arabia artificially depressing the price of oil indefinitely. Low oil prices have been very damaging for Russia’s economy. Zero Hedge today reported this morning:
Down over 5%, Russia’s RTS Index has plunged to its weakest level since Dec 2014 and the peak of its existential crisis mid-Ukraine/currency-crisis/oil-collapse. This is Russia’s biggest one-day drop since April 2015. The Ruble continues to tumble (despite CNH strength) as oil pushes to new cycle lows…
Even though the US shale oil market has also been hit badly by the drop in oil prices, Moscow see’s Saudi Arabia’s actions as a direct attack on Russia for backing Syria’s President Assad against Saudi Arabia’s wishes. I have never met Prime Minister Putin in person, but I am willing to bet he is not a man that takes threats lightly or is going to cower to Saudi Arabia. Putin cares deeply about Russia and his people, but he also cares about his profit margins like any good businessman. As such, he must take action to engineer a return of oil prices to a sustainable level. Putin is a professional and will exhaust diplomatic means; however, if they should fail and Russia is pushed into a corner, Russia will undertake covert actions to engineer the price rebound and I can’t say I blame them at all.
If the price depression continues, Moscow will act in a way that precipitates a rapid rebound of oil prices. Read more
Russia sets chessboard for major Middle East war and transition to global dominance with one apocalyptic move
The United States has enjoyed the preeminent position globally as well as the Middle East for the last half a century. Like all empires, the sun has risen and now may be setting on the American century. This is due in no small part to atrocious leadership and imbecilic foreign policy controlled by ideologues and special interests. In particular, the US has lost significant influence in the Middle East over the last decade by turning allies into enemies and sovereign nations into hostile failed states. In the process, the US created leadership vacuums that it was unable or unwilling to fill. In those voids reentered old actors with Russia leading the way. With Russia now firmly retrenched in the Middle East, the US can no longer afford to continue with business as usual. The US must reevaluate its entire foreign policy positions and design a new grand strategy recognizing Russia is no longer a spoiler, but the kingmaker in the Middle East. Russia has set the chessboard in the Middle East to achieve global dominance in one apocalyptic move. As such, if there is to be war or peace, analysts should be looking toward Russia. Read more
Instead of exposing lies and treason within the top tiers of government, today, I am going to simply make a plea to the service members of the US armed forces and those thinking about joining. The message is simple. If you aren’t in, don’t join. If you are currently in the service, do what you have to do to survive, bring your troops home safely, and get out. The missions are garbage, the wars are lies, and you are serving the special interests of the elite, not your nation. Don’t be a fool and buy into the propaganda. Contrary to your leadership that sold you out long ago, I actually care about your well-being and the future of this nation. If I can wake even one person up and save them from being killed or heinously wounded in another unnecessary war, this post was worth infinitely more than the time it took to compose.
The issue of service in today’s military was directly put to me by a mother who asked whether I thought her son should enlist in the Marines. Knowing this lady and her son, I thought long and hard before answering her with a definitive, “No.” The lady knew that I had spent many years in the military in both the enlisted and officer ranks and had served in combat in both Iraq and Afghanistan so seemed taken aback by my blunt answer. Clearly surprised, she asked what my rationale was for saying it was a bad idea. I told her the military was bad enough while I was in the service, but the waste and abuse of the lives of our service members is now at the worst levels since Vietnam. Our troops are simply cannon fodder for wars the US not only has engineered, but has no intention of decisively ending. Granted, the equipment and training the military provides is better than it ever has been, but our senior leadership is the worst I have ever seen, there is no will or strategy to win, and our troops are being left for dead in places like Afghanistan for political expedience. Further, all of our efforts, as honorable as they were, were completely in vain in Iraq and Afghanistan because of the massive dereliction in our leadership. If our leadership and all of NATO couldn’t even handle the Taliban, what does your survivability look like in the military when the elites pick the next fight with an actual competent enemy like Russia or China? Until the US military purges its general staff and the country elects a competent Commander-in-Chief, run for the door.
Just today in Afghanistan we lost another American serving with a special operations unit. This makes me sick to my stomach with sadness. Dropping all of the patriotic propaganda, what did that operator give his life for? How is the loss even remotely justifiable? Read more
It should come as no shock to our readers that the Third Iraq War President Obama initiated has already faltered. As predicted, the strategy (or lack thereof see: http://www.blackboxwire.com/2014/10/11/islamic-extremism-and-what-lies-ahead-part-ii-the-war-on-isis-and-syria/) did not achieve the desired results so now the Department of Defense (DoD), no doubt testing the waters for the White House, is requesting boots on the ground. As we warned, mission creep is a dangerous thing and would plague this operation. What started with just a handful of “advisors,” grew into airstrikes in Iraq and then Syria, then over a thousand troops “on the ground,” and now US troop levels in Iraq will soon reach 3,000. When this new batch of advisors fails to stop the growth of ISIL, expect Obama to retract another “promise” and have “no choice,” but to commit US combat personnel to the fight in Iraq. Soon, just like in Vietnam, Obama will be steadily sucked into another full blown war in Iraq that the US will neither win nor be able to afford.
This introductory paragraph could have been snatched from today’s headlines detailing how President Obama walked back his repeated promises not to put American “boots on the ground” in Iraq. However, it is a verbatim cut and paste from an article I wrote just over a year ago predicting EXACTLY what is occurring. See: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/11/18/update-on-the-third-iraq-war-against-isilisisisaqsyriaetc/#more-768 Not so ironically, you didn’t hear the radio and talk show hosts and other “enlightened” pundits detailing this foreseeable reality a year ago because they are hacks. However, today the airwaves have been alive with people taking notice. Savage, Hannity, Beck, Wilkow, O’Reilly, etc. all have been detailing how the President lied and how the strategy they supported to bomb ISIL has not worked. I say better late than never to the party, but American’s need to wake up now. Read more
Russian transfer of S-300 Air Defense System may force Israeli to initiate war with Iran before winter
Over two decades ago, I began warning that United States’ policies in the Middle East could set the US and world on a trajectory for a major war. Unfortunately, every major policy decision the US has made has exclusively served the interests of the global elite to the detriment of humanity. The trajectory set by these policy decisions has moved the world closer and closer to a full blown world war. More recently, I have warned that the Obama Administration was walking a dangerous foreign policy line in the Middle East that if mismanaged, could lead to horrific consequences. Today, it is become blatantly clear to all but the most ideologically blinded that Obama and his amateur staff have chosen incorrectly and created a perfect storm in the Middle East that will likely lead to a full scale regional war. The culmination of these decisions, no matter their motivation, has set the stage for a showdown between Israel and Iran that is now most likely irreversible. This showdown is what I have previously described as the worst case scenario that must be avoided at all costs. The consequences of which will be catastrophic for not just the Middle East, but the US and the rest of the world. As recently as August, news broke that could finally force Israel into unilateral action against Iran, which will pull the entire region and the US into war, collapse the already sick global economy, and usher in the New World Order.
The event I am speaking of is the Russian announcement that it will move forward with the transfer of S-300 Air Defense Systems to Iran. These sophisticated air defense systems are capable of detecting and successfully interdicting aircraft flown by the Israeli Air Force (IAF) as well as ballistic missiles, drones, and cruise missiles. The potency of this air defense system will alternate the current military balance of the region and has Israel on edge. Read more
Historically, North Korean threats were nothing more than sabre rattling akin to a young child acting out for attention. However, North Korea today is more unstable than ever. Its people are starving, its economy is virtually non-existent, and it now has nuclear weapons (thanks to the last 3 US Presidents). Worse yet, Kim Jong Un, the nutcase boy “leader” that makes Caligula look like a decent guy, has his finger on the trigger ready to initiate a major war. So what makes this escalation by North Korea something we should take more serious than the countless previous flare-ups on the peninsula? In short, North Korea isn’t the issue, but its puppet master China is the game changer. China is in trouble and could use this latest escalation to turn the skirmish into a hot war. The probability of this is higher than it has been in since the end of the Cold War and it is making analysts take the threats far more seriously. Read more
Economic Collapse Begins: US Government and central planners launch cyber attack on New York Stock Exchange and then blame China
As I warned on Monday, all of the signs and conditions for the markets to begin their crash were in place. I specifically said to watch China, Greece, oil, and bonds. As of today, the markets were a disaster. Even after substantial intervention by central banks, the markets are still crashing globally. This has the potential to spiral out of control very quickly as the Chinese stock market has already lost nearly 40% of its value erasing trillions in a matter of hours. As such, it appears the central planners are losing the ability to manipulate markets higher. The market conditions now are pointing to a severe market correction and everyone should take action to protect any wealth they have managed to accumulate or risk major losses over the next 48 hours. Ominously, this crash is also being used to provoke a war with the Chinese to distract the population from the fact our leaders have criminally obliterated the US economy.
Most consequential at the moment, it appears the central planners in China have so far been unable to stabilize their markets and halt the collapse in their stock market. I noted this would be a key factor to monitor this week as an indication of whether or not the markets were going to move toward correction. Read more
Over the last two weeks, major movements have been taking place economically across the globe. These events are moving international markets into “correction” territory, but cumulatively, could quickly spiral into a global meltdown of markets. Although, the US hasn’t reached critical mass and may actually experience a short term strengthening of markets as international markets flee to the US for safety; the signs of a major crash are now flashing red. What should you look for and what can you do?
Four major places to watch right now are Greece/European Union (EU), China, oil, and bonds. Greece has the potential to start a ripple effect against austerity across the EU triggering a banking run, panic, and global losses. This could unhinge the massive derivatives market and alone cause a global economic collapse. China is so big now that the recent losses in their market will spread globally this week if the losses are not stabilized. Any major downturn in China’s economy will further increase the already saturated oil market driving the price per barrel even lower. If oil continues to drop and stay low, US oil producing states will feel this the hardest, which will sharply increase US unemployment numbers. The loss of high paying jobs will throw even the totally fudged US financial numbers clearly back into recession territory and drag the world back down with it. Finally, the bond market has seen a liquidity crunch that likely will only get worse. If governments can’t manage to keep their bond yields low, the already massive debt loads (and payments on interest) these nations are carrying will explode and force them into financial crises far worse than anything Greece is facing.
Presently, the situation in Greece is very serious. Read more
Today the Republic Dies with the Passage of the TPP: Welcome to the reality of debt, poverty, and serfdom compliments of your new global corporate leadership.
There are times when even the most dedicated amongst us have to sit down, take stock, and regroup. I am physically ill from the treason that just occurred today in the halls of Congress. No republic dies of a single blow, but dies many deaths before it is finally exhausted. Today obliterated what was left of our Republic as the Senate voted 60-38 to approve the TPP. With barely a blimp in the headlines crowded by relentless lunacy about the Confederate Flag and gay rights the Senate just approved a trade bill that will now go to the President to be signed into law. In the dark of the night when no one was paying attention, this legislation was jammed through via political strong arming and corrupt buy-offs of Congress even though up to 90% of polled Americans opposed the legislation. The passage of this bill will prove to be one of the major acts of America’s demise and mark a point where our nation descended into true tyranny. Read more
This week’s news that ISIL inflicted a heavy defeat upon Iraqi government forces is no surprise. Whether or not ISIL can hold the ground is yet to be seen, but it sends a strong signal Washington’s strategy in Iraq is failing contrary to the claims of Obama’s paid propagandists. Further, and more ominous for the world, it moves the Middle East one notch closer to an all-out regional war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. As I have predicted for years, this coming conflagration is now a near certainty. At this stage of the on-going proxy war there are simply no peaceful off ramps and it will be a winner takes all struggle. Either radical Sunni extremists aligned under Saudi Arabia or radical Shia extremists aligned under Iran will prevail, which in either case will trigger a global war that involves the US and Israel. For those of you saying, “Good, let them kill each other,” a lesson on the global economic implications of a sudden shut down of oil from the Middle East is in order. In short, outright chaos will ensue.
Those of you that read my work regularly are well aware that I predicted the failure of US efforts to curb ISIL and the fall of Ramadi well over a year ago and the growing regional conflict in the Middle East “years” ago. In fact, even my recent my global updates from April 20, 2015 speak specifically to Ramadi and ISIL, http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2015/04/20/global-updates/. In the brief, I specifically called out the Obama Administration as misleading the US on our “success” against ISIL in Tikrit and said that ISIL had simply shifted its forces south to “Ramadi” where I expected it to achieve success. Below is the exact exert from my forecast. Read more
Who benefits when the world attacks Yemen? This is a question that policies makers should have asked before allowing the president to start another foreign war. In fact, it was asked and the answer was Al Qaeda. Being that Al Qaeda would be the ultimate winner, one must wonder what kind of treason allowed this war to proceed. In spite of this knowledge, the United States still backed an Arab coalition in a completely unjustified offensive war against Yemen. The purported purpose was to bring back the ousted president, but anyone with half a brain would immediately know this was preposterous. Yemenis are not going to ever accept a president that used a foreign militaries to kill its citizens to regain power. Thus, knowing that the US was aware that by weakening the Houthi rebels they would by default strengthen Al Qaeda and still not achieve their stated goal, one must look deeper to reveal very disturbing consistencies in US Foreign Policy.
To recap, since the ouster of Yemen’s president widely seen as a US puppet, Saudi Arabia has overtly and the US clandestinely bombed Yemen. The Houthis still retain power and the population is even more aligned against the ousted president than before the war against Yemen was unleashed. Further, AQ broke into a prison and released 300 terrorist prisoners. Al Qaeda has also made significant territorial gains and seized military bases containing weapons stockpiles. In the meantime, a humanitarian disaster has ensued with thousands of civilians being killed in the bombing raids and fighting while many Yemenis are starving to death. This operation by any bar has been a total failure and is becoming a humanitarian disaster. However, no one in the media or Congress is calling out President Obama, the Nobel Peace Prize recipient, for starting an unconstitutional war, losing it, and killing thousands of innocent people all while aiding our enemy. Why? Read more