Archive for Oil and Gas

Update: Middle East on Brink of Major War after Saudi Warship Attacked

Again, the news cycle is moving so quickly, no one is able to completely keep up.  However, with all of the focus on executive orders on immigration some major events are slipping by unnoticed.  The take away is that the Middle East is again moving rapidly toward all-out war.  The immigration issue is serious and important, but the war that could potential break out in the Middle East could be staggering.  Here are the most recent highlights with comment:

Yemen in particular has become a flashpoint.  Starting from the top, a unit from SEAL Team Six got mauled badly and lost an operator while conducting a direct action raid on a suspected al-Qaeda facility.  Further, their MV-22 Osprey crashed and was destroyed on the ground.  The base model of a single Osprey costs over $73,000,000 dollars and this was a special operations variant, which comes in closer to one hundred million dollars.  This was in exchange for killing 14 alleged terrorists of at best, medium value, and collecting some information to better identify their network.  This shows that President Trump is less risk averse when it comes to launching our soldiers into combat.  If this becomes a trend, it means much more kinetic warfare and far greater US casualties.  Previous to this raid, attacks in Yemen were almost exclusively being carried out by airstrikes.

If not bad enough, a Saudi Arabian Frigate, which is a warship, was attacked according to the US government, by a small boat laden with explosives.  However, video evidence supports the assessment that believes the ship was hit by a missile supplied by Iran.  Anti-ship missiles have been fired at US Warships in the same area over the last six months.  Further, one man can be heard speaking in an Iranian accent chanting death to America.  If it was indeed a missile that hit the boat, the fact is being downplayed and covered up to prevent outrage in Saudi Arabia that would demand revenge and initiate a war with Iran.  This is not unprecedented in the region.  An advanced ship from the UAE was also recently hit by an Iranian supplied anti-ship missile launched from Yemen and damaged so badly it had to be decommissioned.  However, the UAE never officially acknowledge the attack.

Irrespective of how the attack occurred, the blast appears to have struck the upper portion of the stern of the Saudi ship inflicting serious damage and killing at least two Saudi sailors.  This is a major act of war and is believed to have been launched by the Houthi rebels in Yemen.  One may say this is the cost of starting an unnecessary war and invading Yemen.  I would agree that it was stupid for Saudi Arabia to intervene militarily in Yemen.  However, the Saudis tonight are not discussing whether or not their war was smart.  What they are discussing his how to retaliate.  If it in fact was an attack launched by the Houthis, the missile was undoubtedly supplied by Iran.  Everyone knows this, but the question is if the Kingdom will hold the Houthis and/or the Iranians responsible.  I assess the possibility of Saudi Arabia expanding their war in Yemen as high.  I also see a medium likelihood of Saudi Arabia expanding it to Iran to include indicting any Iranian flagged ship near Yemen.  This will undoubtedly provoke another cycle of violence.  Worst case is Saudi Arabia decides to retaliate directly against Iran, but I assess this as unlikely.  The fact that Saudi Arabia has not said anything about the ban in immigration from seven predominately Muslim countries factors into this situation.  It is highly likely the Saudis will try to lean heavily on the US to take out Iran for them, which brings me to my next point.

Iran test launched a ballistic missile this week in violation of pretty much everything the international community has told Iran it could not do.  Iran became a serial violator of any international dictates since the Obama Administration was in office.  Their transgressions included seizing US Navy vessels and their crews in international waters, providing weapons to attack and kill Americans, holding Americans hostage, developing long range missile technology, and feigning attacks on our warships.  Following precedent, Iran conducted a launch of another ballistic missile and has yet to be “reprimanded” by the new Administration.  Perhaps, Iran thinks it has gotten away with it and President Trump will be a push over.  If so, I believe they have badly miscalculated the new American President.  President Trump in a short amount of time will respond.  How, is the only question.  Trumps retaliatory options range from lodging a diplomatic protest and re-invoking sanctions to launching a nuclear strike.

Yes, I do think President Trump is serious enough he may indeed use nuclear weapons during his time in office to prevent a bloody and costly deployment of ground troops against a country like North Korea or Iran.  Nonetheless, I assess the Administration will come out with a clear warning to Iran, but will stop short of a military strike.  Iran will get one warning, but no more.  However, there is a perfect coalescing of Saudi and US interests with regards to annihilating Iran.  Iran should take this seriously because Saudi Arabia may be on the phone right now with Washington discussing military options for the attack on their ship.  If Trump greenlights retaliation, we could have a major outbreak of war in days.  However, I reiterate, I think right now we will have some clear red lines drawn and preparations made, but the war won’t begin just yet.

In summary, things are getting hotter in the Middle East.  All that is needed is a slight nudge and the entire region could erupt.  I do not see anything getting calmer anytime soon.  In fact, I think we are about to see a major escalation of war in the Middle East.

 

By Guiles Hendrik

January 30, 2017

While World was Distracted Iran Received the S-300 Missiles that Could Lead to World War III

While the world has been distracted by the quickening of the dissent into global chaos, it was easy to miss a major even that occurred this week.  Russia delivered the first batch of S-300 missiles to Iran.  The missiles were the last component needed to make their previously delivered S-300 Air Defense System fully operational.  This may signal Russia is moving forward with a more aggressive foreign policy to counter the US military’s growing list of provocative actions.  Further, two countries did not miss this major geostrategic event.  Israel and Saudi Arabia have been carefully watching and monitoring Iran for this event, which may prove to be a red line that at least Israel is unwilling to allow Iran to cross.  If true, the clock is about to run out for Israel to take unilateral action or be at the mercy of warming US foreign policy to Iran.  This could mean the outbreak of WWIII.

Make no mistake, the introduction of a fully operational S-300 Air Defense System in Iran alters the balance of power in the Middle East and Israel and Saudi Arabia know it.  It is possible Israel has developed counter measures to the S-300, but the mere presence of the system alone would fundamentally limit Israel’s ability to attack Iran’s nuclear sites.  Whether or not Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reached a mutually acceptable deal on the sale and delivery of the system to Iran is unknown, but my guess is Israel protested vigorously.  Both the Netanyahu and Putin know that the air defense sale will significantly strengthen and embolden Iran, which is a sworn enemy of Israel.  Further, Iran is seen as a threat by the rest of the Sunni dominated Gulf-Arab countries.  Therefore, one must ask if this could trigger and war and if so, why Russia would finalize the sale and delivery.

I have previously warned and detailed why an operational S-300 Air Defense System is a major event that could trigger a war in the Middle East that goes global.  (See: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2015/08/29/russian-transfer-of-s-300-air-defense-system-may-force-israeli-to-initiate-war-with-iran-before-winter/).  Read more

Covert Nuclear Arms Race in Middle East Now Overt

Here I go again, “just as I previously warned” (See: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/?s=nuclear+arms+race+in+middle+east), Saudi Arabia announced that it will not rule out pursuing nuclear weapons pending any “nefarious” actions by Iran.  Naturally, Saudi Arabia wasn’t keen on publicly discussing its most sensitive national defense plans with respect to its greatest threat, Iran; however, it was clear that Saudi’s are not denying they would pursue nuclear weapons.

Whether or not Saudi Arabia has already or intends to obtain nuclear weapons is of huge concern to the region and world. Without doubt, Iran is carefully analyzing these latest statements by Saudi Arabia and there is no way they will be taken as a positive sign in Tehran.  As such, the Saudi statement made the region one step more paranoid, which equals one step closer to war.  If the Saudis are trying to create the conditions for their own demise, they are doing a great job of it.  Clearly, if Yemen is any indication, the new king is not capable of handling the complex geopolitics of the region and may indeed walk the region right into a major war.

By Guiles Hendrik

January 19, 2016

 

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Saudis-not-ruling-out-nuclear-option-if-Iran-gets-bomb-442087

What today’s market collapse means for the future

Black Friday hit world stock markets causing almost three trillion dollars in losses. As I predicted, this summer’s crash initiated a far larger crash cycle that is now returning with a fury.  The Chinese contagion that was said to be “contained” by our leaders is anything but contained.  It is now clear China’s economic crash wasn’t averted; it was just temporarily masked and delayed.  Further, oil prices continue their steep decline and now are under 30 dollars a barrel.  Also, 2015’s economic numbers are in and 2015 was the year global economies fell back into chaos.  With compounding bad economic news in all markets globally, what can we expect going forward?

I have for years told advocates of energy independence that it isn’t $200 dollars a barrel for oil that I fear, but rather $20 a barrel. Most “experts” thought that by reducing our reliance on Middle Eastern oil supplies, we would somehow achieve greater stability.  I correctly warned that if you want to see real chaos, drop the oil prices to $37 or below.  Well, today, oil prices broke below the key technical floor of $30 per barrel and barring any intervention by Saudi Arabia to reduce oil production, we are going to soon test the $20 mark.  Even before hitting the $37 mark, it was clear stability in the Middle East had gone from really bad to near worst case scenario.  At the $20 per barrel mark something must break.  Whether Saudi Arabia takes and knee and gives into OPEC pressure to cut production or a war breaks out, no oil producing country can continue to endure this price point much longer.  This downward spiral in the oil market will only add to the vast problems in the Middle East and before the region rebalances, it is very likely more countries will collapse.  With near certainty, the old geographic boundaries of the Middle East will be completely redrawn and it is increasingly likely we are seeing the first waves of what will eventually turn into a major collapse of Saudi Arabia.  Read more

The Demise Of Dollar Hegemony: Russia Breaks Wall St’s Oil-Price Monopoly

Just as I warned earlier this week, it appears Russia is moving to debase the Petro-Dollar, which would fundamentally destroy the quality of life Americans enjoy today.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-12/demise-dollar-hegemony-russia-breaks-wall-sts-oil-price-monopoly

Russia has just taken significant steps that will break the present Wall Street oil price monopoly, at least for a huge part of the world oil market. The move is part of a longer-term strategy of decoupling Russia’s economy and especially its very significant export of oil, from the US dollar, today the Achilles Heel of the Russian economy.

Reposted from Zerohedge.com; Submitted by William Engdahl via New Eastern Outlook

 

Russian stock crash increases risk of war in the Middle East

Last week, I warned that Russia has become the country with the ability to push the Middle East into a major war.  In particular, Russia cannot and will not tolerate Saudi Arabia artificially depressing the price of oil indefinitely.  Low oil prices have been very damaging for Russia’s economy.  Zero Hedge today reported this morning:

Down over 5%, Russia’s RTS Index has plunged to its weakest level since Dec 2014 and the peak of its existential crisis mid-Ukraine/currency-crisis/oil-collapse. This is Russia’s biggest one-day drop since April 2015. The Ruble continues to tumble (despite CNH strength) as oil pushes to new cycle lows…

Even though the US shale oil market has also been hit badly by the drop in oil prices, Moscow see’s Saudi Arabia’s actions as a direct attack on Russia for backing Syria’s President Assad against Saudi Arabia’s wishes.  I have never met Prime Minister Putin in person, but I am willing to bet he is not a man that takes threats lightly or is going to cower to Saudi Arabia.  Putin cares deeply about Russia and his people, but he also cares about his profit margins like any good businessman.  As such, he must take action to engineer a return of oil prices to a sustainable level.  Putin is a professional and will exhaust diplomatic means; however, if they should fail and Russia is pushed into a corner, Russia will undertake covert actions to engineer the price rebound and I can’t say I blame them at all.

If the price depression continues, Moscow will act in a way that precipitates a rapid rebound of oil prices.  Read more

Russia sets chessboard for major Middle East war and transition to global dominance with one apocalyptic move

The United States has enjoyed the preeminent position globally as well as the Middle East for the last half a century. Like all empires, the sun has risen and now may be setting on the American century.  This is due in no small part to atrocious leadership and imbecilic foreign policy controlled by ideologues and special interests.  In particular, the US has lost significant influence in the Middle East over the last decade by turning allies into enemies and sovereign nations into hostile failed states.  In the process, the US created leadership vacuums that it was unable or unwilling to fill.  In those voids reentered old actors with Russia leading the way.  With Russia now firmly retrenched in the Middle East, the US can no longer afford to continue with business as usual.  The US must reevaluate its entire foreign policy positions and design a new grand strategy recognizing Russia is no longer a spoiler, but the kingmaker in the Middle East.  Russia has set the chessboard in the Middle East to achieve global dominance in one apocalyptic move.  As such, if there is to be war or peace, analysts should be looking toward Russia. Read more

One Step Closer to Major Middle Eastern War between Iran and Saudi Arabia

Readers of Last Minute Survival are well aware that I have been correctly predicting for years the progression of events in the Middle East toward a total regional conflagration. Speaking broadly of a few key events, I predicted the rise of ISIL, the spread of the “civil war in Syria” to Iraq, and the proxy war between Saudi Arabia (Sunni) and Iran (Shia) going hot.  The execution of a prominent dissident Shiite cleric in Saudi Arabia just took this conflict one notch closer to a total war, which the United States is not prepared.  The brewing war has triggered a nuclear arms race in the Middle East and it now appears averting a massive war will not be possible.  The only question is how to best mitigate the damage.

This escalation has not been fully appreciated in the US and in fact seems to have been discounted by the US Department of State, which will certainly be “surprised” when both countries begin to mobilize their militaries. Both nations are now moving toward a war footing, which has initiated a secret nuclear arms race in the Middle East.  Iran knows Saudi Arabia has a far more modern military and the backing of the United States, the Gulf Coast Countries, and possibly Israel, Turkey, and Pakistan.  Iran is also threatened by Saudi backed Sunni extremists fighting to overthrow its allies to the west in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon while being boxed in by another Saudi backed Sunni extremist group, the Taliban, to its east in Afghanistan.  Iran knows Pakistan has agreed to supply Saudi Arabia with nuclear weapons.  Iran’s generals are not stupid and assess that they must obtain nuclear weapons if they have any hope of successfully defending Iran.  They are also racing to improve their anti-access and missile technologies to thwart any type of amphibious invasion from the US while effectively being able to attack Saudi Arabia’s water and oil installations from afar.  Further, as I have warned, Iran has been racing to operationally deploy advanced, Russian, S-300 air defense systems, which will effectively deny Iranian airspace to all but 5th Generation fighter/attack aircraft.

As overwhelming as the odds may seem to Iran, Saudi Arabia is justifiably terrified of a powerful Iran. What Iran lacks in high tech military hardware, it has in willpower and individual fighting capability, which will prove far more potent than anything the Saudis can muster for a war.  Those of us that have worked with the Saudi military know that the Saudi military is a paper tiger.  The Saudis are lazy and incompetent as warriors, but they have a big checkbook that keeps the US military industrial complex in business.  This keeps Washington and the Pentagon from ever effectively addressing the issue, which will become brutally apparent when a direct conflict between the nations breaks out.  In a head to head fight, Iran’s fighters are better trained, better organized, and far more motivated than even the best Saudi units.  In fact, aside from perhaps Jordan, the Arab armies are a joke.  Most are probably more likely to shoot each other (intentionally or not) before ever fielding an effective force against an enemy.  Further, although Iran has proven its ability to project forces beyond its borders successfully, and would no doubt use Iraq as a staging area for a land invasion of Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia has no such force projection capability.  Without the ability to actually invade and defeat Iran, Saudi Arabia could only at best win a partial victory over Iran.  As such, Saudi Arabia must rely on buying off Washington to intervene and fight its war with American troops and treasure.  The Pentagon at least gets this, but what isn’t well understood by either the generals or the White House is that the Saudi backup plan if Washington bulks is to have a credible nuclear weapons capability that they will use if Washington won’t act.  The US is totally unprepared for and to date has no policy to even remotely address.  Read more

Russian transfer of S-300 Air Defense System may force Israeli to initiate war with Iran before winter

Over two decades ago, I began warning that United States’ policies in the Middle East could set the US and world on a trajectory for a major war. Unfortunately, every major policy decision the US has made has exclusively served the interests of the global elite to the detriment of humanity. The trajectory set by these policy decisions has moved the world closer and closer to a full blown world war. More recently, I have warned that the Obama Administration was walking a dangerous foreign policy line in the Middle East that if mismanaged, could lead to horrific consequences. Today, it is become blatantly clear to all but the most ideologically blinded that Obama and his amateur staff have chosen incorrectly and created a perfect storm in the Middle East that will likely lead to a full scale regional war. The culmination of these decisions, no matter their motivation, has set the stage for a showdown between Israel and Iran that is now most likely irreversible. This showdown is what I have previously described as the worst case scenario that must be avoided at all costs. The consequences of which will be catastrophic for not just the Middle East, but the US and the rest of the world. As recently as August, news broke that could finally force Israel into unilateral action against Iran, which will pull the entire region and the US into war, collapse the already sick global economy, and usher in the New World Order.

The event I am speaking of is the Russian announcement that it will move forward with the transfer of S-300 Air Defense Systems to Iran. These sophisticated air defense systems are capable of detecting and successfully interdicting aircraft flown by the Israeli Air Force (IAF) as well as ballistic missiles, drones, and cruise missiles. The potency of this air defense system will alternate the current military balance of the region and has Israel on edge. Read more

Last Minute Survival Analysis Confirmed: Former head of Defense Intelligence Agency confirms US leaders committed the treason of the century when US secretly created terrorist organization known as ISIS/ISIL/IS

Well, once again, I told you so (see LastMinuteSurvival.com and search term “ISIL”). It baffles me how so often people are either willfully ignorant or naively trusting of government even in face of a nearly uninterrupted history of abuses. In just one more case of government deceit and treachery, the truth has finally emerged about how the worst Islamic terrorist organization to emerge in our lifetime rose to power. The truth is the United States armed, trained, equipped, and advised ISIS/ISIL/IS terrorists to carry out the policy plans of the global elite, just as I have explicitly stated for years. This illegal action, more than any other recent revelation, should confirm once and for all that the entire “war on terrorism” has been a manufactured lie from the very beginning. The terrorism “big lie” was fabricated to serve the interests of the global elite. The terrorism boogeyman was created, nursed, and used to convince you through fear, propaganda, and false patriotism to surrender your rights and freedoms in the name of “security.” Now that the truth is out, it is time to use our legal system to root out these enemies of the state by indicting, prosecuting, and punishing every single military and political leader involved in the treason of the century against the US.

Nobody less than the former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, General Flynn, just confirmed that the US knowingly supported Islamic terrorists to form the organization known as ISIS/ISIL/IS. Let me state this again in simple terms so there is zero misconception. The United States secretly and willfully, with full knowledge of the disastrous consequences, set up bases, provided weapons, training, and funding, and then provided intelligence and advisor support to the worst known Islamic terrorists in the world to overthrow a nation that had done nothing to the United States. These terrorists were known at the time to be actively seeking to kill all Christians, crush the West, and specifically destroy the United States. These terrorists were dedicated to killing Americans and many had already taken part in operations against US personnel in Iraq and Afghanistan. Nonetheless, the secret program was ordered so that the ultra-wealthy oil cartels could build a gas pipeline and get richer, undermine Russia, and placate the Israeli lobby in the lead up to a war with Iran. Read more

Economic Collapse Begins: US Government and central planners launch cyber attack on New York Stock Exchange and then blame China

As I warned on Monday, all of the signs and conditions for the markets to begin their crash were in place.  I specifically said to watch China, Greece, oil, and bonds.  As of today, the markets were a disaster.  Even after substantial intervention by central banks, the markets are still crashing globally.  This has the potential to spiral out of control very quickly as the Chinese stock market has already lost nearly 40% of its value erasing trillions in a matter of hours.  As such, it appears the central planners are losing the ability to manipulate markets higher.  The market conditions now are pointing to a severe market correction and everyone should take action to protect any wealth they have managed to accumulate or risk major losses over the next 48 hours.  Ominously, this crash is also being used to provoke a war with the Chinese to distract the population from the fact our leaders have criminally obliterated the US economy.

Most consequential at the moment, it appears the central planners in China have so far been unable to stabilize their markets and halt the collapse in their stock market.  I noted this would be a key factor to monitor this week as an indication of whether or not the markets were going to move toward correction.  Read more

Has the Great Economic Collapse Begun?

Over the last two weeks, major movements have been taking place economically across the globe.  These events are moving international markets into “correction” territory, but cumulatively, could quickly spiral into a global meltdown of markets.  Although, the US hasn’t reached critical mass and may actually experience a short term strengthening of markets as international markets flee to the US for safety; the signs of a major crash are now flashing red.  What should you look for and what can you do?

Four major places to watch right now are Greece/European Union (EU), China, oil, and bonds.  Greece has the potential to start a ripple effect against austerity across the EU triggering a banking run, panic, and global losses.  This could unhinge the massive derivatives market and alone cause a global economic collapse.  China is so big now that the recent losses in their market will spread globally this week if the losses are not stabilized.  Any major downturn in China’s economy will further increase the already saturated oil market driving the price per barrel even lower.  If oil continues to drop and stay low, US oil producing states will feel this the hardest, which will sharply increase US unemployment numbers.  The loss of high paying jobs will throw even the totally fudged US financial numbers clearly back into recession territory and drag the world back down with it.  Finally, the bond market has seen a liquidity crunch that likely will only get worse.  If governments can’t manage to keep their bond yields low, the already massive debt loads (and payments on interest) these nations are carrying will explode and force them into financial crises far worse than anything Greece is facing.

Presently, the situation in Greece is very serious.  Read more

ISIL Takes Ramadi: World One Step Closer to World War

Perhaps if the Iraqi soldiers used ammunition in their M240 machine gun they would have better results against ISIL.  I loved poorly staged propaganda photos.

Perhaps if the Iraqi soldiers used ammunition in their M240 machine gun they would have better results against ISIL. I loved poorly staged propaganda photos.

This week’s news that ISIL inflicted a heavy defeat upon Iraqi government forces is no surprise.  Whether or not ISIL can hold the ground is yet to be seen, but it sends a strong signal Washington’s strategy in Iraq is failing contrary to the claims of Obama’s paid propagandists.  Further, and more ominous for the world, it moves the Middle East one notch closer to an all-out regional war between Iran and Saudi Arabia.  As I have predicted for years, this coming conflagration is now a near certainty.  At this stage of the on-going proxy war there are simply no peaceful off ramps and it will be a winner takes all struggle.  Either radical Sunni extremists aligned under Saudi Arabia or radical Shia extremists aligned under Iran will prevail, which in either case will trigger a global war that involves the US and Israel.  For those of you saying, “Good, let them kill each other,” a lesson on the global economic implications of a sudden shut down of oil from the Middle East is in order.  In short, outright chaos will ensue.

Those of you that read my work regularly are well aware that I predicted the failure of US efforts to curb ISIL and the fall of Ramadi well over a year ago and the growing regional conflict in the Middle East “years” ago.  In fact, even my recent my global updates from April 20, 2015 speak specifically to Ramadi and ISIL, http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2015/04/20/global-updates/.  In the brief, I specifically called out the Obama Administration as misleading the US on our “success” against ISIL in Tikrit and said that ISIL had simply shifted its forces south to “Ramadi” where I expected it to achieve success.  Below is the exact exert from my forecast. Read more

Peace with Iran will lead to war: Part 2

Hardened Iranian Nuclear Facility at Fordo(w)

Hardened Iranian Nuclear Facility at Fordo(w)

Last week I discussed why peace with Iran was the preferred option.  I outlined a number of salient points uninformed talking heads in the media and well paid Israel lobbyists such as the former US Ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton, will never bring up.  In short, the costs of a war with Iran will far outweigh the costs of accepting a turbulent peace.  Even a successful war against Iran will be a Pyric victory and cause an economic collapse in the US.  Further, even if Iran did test a nuclear weapon, we would still have plenty of time to exercise the war option should it be necessary.  Unfortunately, even if the US does manage to broker a peace deal with Iran, war is now close to a certainty.  In the event of a war with Iran, there will be dire implications for the US.  Today I will discuss why war is now imminent, how it will likely be initiated, and the catastrophic effects on the US you must prepare to endure. Read more

Islamic extremism and what lies ahead? Part II: The War on ISIL and Syria

Airstrikes in Iraq

Airstrikes in Iraq

President Obama and his top military advisors have learned nothing and have made a grave mistake starting a war with Syria using ISIL as the pretext.  Just as I was confident and proven correct that this situation would materialize, I am equally confident in my analysis that this new war will lead to America’s greatest foreign policy disaster to date.  Neither war with Syrian nor ISIL will be decisive, successful, or lead to greater security for the American people.  However, the war may indeed turn out to lead to America’s unwinding as the world’s sole superpower and economic bankruptcy.  This post will continue my analysis on the on-going crisis unfolding in the Middle East respective of Obama’s newest war. Read more

Putin vs Obama Part III: Why Russia will win

Putin speaks during his visit to the Crimean port of Sevastopol.

Putin speaks during his visit to the Crimean port of Sevastopol.

Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger wrote: “For the West, the demonization of Vladimir Putin is not a policy; it is an alibi for the absence of one.”  Kissinger, like him or not, is spot on in his succinct assessment of Obama’s policy for Russia.  As the West descends into another reckless and disastrous war in the Middle East, Putin must be quietly laughing knowing that very soon the US will soon have its Soviet moment of collapse.  In fact, to strategically defeat the US, all Russia must do is wait for the utter mismanagement of our nation to bring about its implosion.  In this third and final installment of our exclusive analysis of the conflicting Russo-American policies, it is clear that in the first major post-Cold War struggle between Russia and the US, it will be Russia that scores a victory in the Ukraine crisis. Read more

Putin versus Obama Part II: Who is the better leader?

US President Barack Obama (L) holds a bilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin during the G8 summit at the Lough Erne resort near Enniskillen in Northern Ireland, on June 17, 2013. The conflict in Syria was set to dominate the G8 summit starting in Northern Ireland on Monday, with Western leaders upping pressure on Russia to back away from its support for President Bashar al-Assad.  AFP PHOTO / JEWEL SAMAD        (Photo credit should read JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/Getty Images)

US President Barack Obama (L) holds a bilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin during the G8 summit at the Lough Erne resort near Enniskillen in Northern Ireland, on June 17, 2013. The conflict in Syria was set to dominate the G8 summit starting in Northern Ireland on Monday, with Western leaders upping pressure on Russia to back away from its support for President Bashar al-Assad. AFP PHOTO / JEWEL SAMAD (Photo credit should read JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/Getty Images)

In my on-going series analyzing the growing rift between the US and Russia, it is important to evaluate a nation’s leadership.  Specifically, let’s look at the qualifications and performance to date of Presidents Putin and Obama.  Before we go any further, it is necessary to lay down a few ground rules of the debate.  First of all, I want to dispel the myth that a person can be of mediocre intellect, but a good president as long as they have a good staff.  This oft stated notion is a ridiculous excuse used by political parties to mitigate criticism that their brainless candidate is not up to the task.  Further, it is true that no one man has total control of a government, but to say that the leaders of Russia and the US have their hands tied and do not have real power would be a poorly informed lie.  In fact, both presidents have substantial power and influence over both foreign and domestic affairs and craft geopolitical strategy that affects the world.  If there wasn’t truth to this, then why would we ascribe so much prestige upon leaders like Thatcher, Reagan, Lincoln, and Washington?  Due to the real power and influence presidents wield, it is important to assess who has demonstrated the ability to more effectively lead and use that power.  Based on that evaluation, you are better able to analyze and predict the actions and ultimate outcomes of any potential or on-going political conflicts between the US and Russia. Read more

Putin versus Obama Part I: Are they really so different?

obama-putinMuch of the rhetoric behind the push to create a new Cold War centers on Russian President Vladimir Putin.  The complicit media and the Obama Administration have pulled no punches in smearing President Putin and casting him as the most evil of tyrants and a political thug imprisoning opposition, seizing assets, enriching himself on the government’s dime, and intimidating reporters and political dissidents.  In fact, much of this is probably true; however, before we cast the first stone and judge Putin as evil incarnate and start World War III, perhaps some national retrospection of our own actions and character would be in order.  Let’s step back and evaluate America’s actions and consider whether or not we may have lost the moral high ground and then,…just perhaps, should rethink our policy, attitudes, and actions toward Russia. Read more

As gas prices prepare to skyrocket, thank President Obama and the Saudis

I would like to advise our readers that now would be a good time to buy any fuel you may need for the coming months in bulk if you have the option. At the least, you might as well fill your gas cans and fuel tanks because the price of gas is not going to be getting any cheaper anytime soon. Due to the support provided by the United States (Authorized by President Obama) and Saudi Arabia (Qatar and Turkey to lesser extents), we have armed, trained, and equipped the largest Islamic extremist army of modern times and unleashed it on the Middle East. This army is now massacring thousands across Iraq and Syria to include countless Christians. The actions of this terrorist army will soon come home to haunt Americans that were too apathetic and or foolish to demand President Obama and Congress cease support to terrorist rebels in Syria.
As Iraq implodes, it is the Saudis and Qataris who are handsomely profiting from the spike in oil prices. The spike is a result of Obama’s schizophrenic foreign policy disaster that made it all possible. As America’s badly battered economy faces another blow it can ill afford you now must spend even more money you don’t have to just fill your gas tank, remember it was President Obama and his pals in Saudi Arabia that hooked you up. Oh, and just in case you didn’t catch it, the US government is using your tax dollars to fund terrorists that want to kill you. President Obama is claiming the US needs gun control while using your tax dollars to hand military grade advanced weapons to 100% ardent, hardened, American hating, terrorists. To add insult to injury, this is all being done while simultaneously the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is chasing domestic boogiemen at home. Remember, DHS is claiming you, your veteran uncle, and your 90 year old grandmother are potential terrorists so you must be subjected to total surveillance and physical searches that in the extreme could be considered forcible sodomy. Don’t worry though; this is all for your “security” and to “protect” you.
As I write, the extreme of extreme Islamists forces are massacring their way to Baghdad. To date, the Iraqi army has been totally routed and has fled leaving all of the weapons and equipment for the enemy. The true test of the Islamist army will be when it begins to enter Baghdad and the first all Shia neighborhoods. This army is not immune to the same carnage any army would face in urban combat where the fighting is up close and brutal. As such, I expect the onslaught to be stalled in Baghdad and perhaps even to bypass Baghdad for key oil infrastructure. Nonetheless, the Sunnis have defeated and subjugated the Shia in Iraq before and it is likely they could again. Even if the extremist forces are halted entering Baghdad, they will most likely turn the thrust of their advance to the east and bypass Baghdad. This will allow the army to seize and or destroy key oil infrastructure. This all but guarantees disruptions to production and that the cost of oil and therefore fuel is about to skyrocket.
What can be done about this for now is most likely nothing. We can watch and enjoy the spike in gas prices as our contracting economy shrinks even faster. However, I would recommend you take a whopping five minutes out of your day and cut and paste an email to your two senators and one representative in Congress and demand Congress freezes any form of support or aid to the rebels/terrorists fighting Assad and now campaigning in Iraq. You may also want to call into your favorite talk radio show and discuss these topics. Finally, come November, vote out every single incumbent and replace them with independent representatives.
By Guiles Hendrik
June 18, 2014
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Earthquakes on the Rise in Oklahoma: A new theory to explain seismic activity in areas once considered geologically stable.

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Many of our readers have noticed and been tracking an uptick in the number of earthquakes in areas previously not known for seismic activity.  Oklahoma, in particular the Oklahoma City area, has been experiencing an unusually high number of quakes in recent years.  Many have speculated that fracking is causing these quakes.  However, fracking alone doesn’t appear to be a viable explanation because the quakes often happen where there is no fracking and where there is fracking no quakes occur.  Correlation isn’t necessarily causation, but in the case of fracking the evidence seems to directly contradict claims it causes earthquakes.  Seismologists agree that fracking can for the most part be ruled out as a cause of the quakes.  Nonetheless, scientists have been baffled by seismic activity in places like Oklahoma and are at a loss to explain what is going on.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After reviewing the information, I would like to propose an admittedly anecdotal theory.  Empirically speaking, it seems that there is a strong correlation between the quake concentrations and the Central Oklahoma aquifer, which has been significantly drawn down over the last few decades.  Theoretically speaking, major quakes have occurred along the New Madrid Fault due to the Earth’s crust rebounding after the glaciers receded in the last ice age.  Using this as a rough corollary, it is conceivable that as a major aquifer is emptied, a similar action may be occurring.  In fact, these quakes may be the result of the earth settling into voids created when the water is removed combined with the fact that billions of tons of water pressure have also been removed as the water has been pumped from the ground.  The combined effect has created tensions (or more specifically, released tensions) in the crust great enough to cause quakes as the crust resettles.

To further test this theory, one must look to other areas that have begun to recently experience seismic activity where historically it has been rare to nonexistent.  The recent 2011 DC earthquake centered near Charlottesville, Virginia may have also been due to similar causal mechanisms even though there are known faults that run through the area that have been quiet for centuries.  A closer look at the geology around the fast growing city of Charlottesville (much like the population of Oklahoma City) shows that its water is fed from a central aquifer not directly associated with other larger aquifers.  Like the Central Oklahoma Aquifer, Charlottesville seems to be sitting on more of an isolated underground lake than a river.  As such, both can be drawn down considerably with heavy water usage.  In fact, a reduction in the water level of Charlottesville may have also caused the large and unforeseen quake that shook much of Virginia and Washington, DC.  Note that this theory is not targeted at areas that are known for seismic activity due to other known causes such as volcanism and active faults.  It is however an attempt to explain why certain areas are suddenly having seismic activity.

Considering the above, one should ask the “so what” question.  Your answer to why you should care is that much of the construction in the United States is built to codes that do not take into account major seismic events due to the low frequency of their occurrence.  However, as we have briefly discussed, more and more areas are now experiencing earthquakes where none had previously occurred to any great scale.  This means that you may be living and working or your kids may be attending a school in a structure that isn’t designed to survive an earthquake.  If my theory is correct, more and more cities drawing directly from concentrated lake-like aquifers may experience new and continued quakes that could potentially damage and or destroy structures not designed to withstand the shaking of an earthquake.  If you have any concern, access the US Geological Survey’s aquifer maps online to determine if you do in fact live in one of these areas.  If so, earthquake preparedness may be something you want to consider more seriously.

 

By Guiles Hendrik

December 17, 2013

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