The United States has enjoyed the preeminent position globally as well as the Middle East for the last half a century. Like all empires, the sun has risen and now may be setting on the American century. This is due in no small part to atrocious leadership and imbecilic foreign policy controlled by ideologues and special interests. In particular, the US has lost significant influence in the Middle East over the last decade by turning allies into enemies and sovereign nations into hostile failed states. In the process, the US created leadership vacuums that it was unable or unwilling to fill. In those voids reentered old actors with Russia leading the way. With Russia now firmly retrenched in the Middle East, the US can no longer afford to continue with business as usual. The US must reevaluate its entire foreign policy positions and design a new grand strategy recognizing Russia is no longer a spoiler, but the kingmaker in the Middle East. Russia has set the chessboard in the Middle East to achieve global dominance in one apocalyptic move. As such, if there is to be war or peace, analysts should be looking toward Russia. Read more
Archive for Energy Security
A Message to the Members of the US Military
Instead of exposing lies and treason within the top tiers of government, today, I am going to simply make a plea to the service members of the US armed forces and those thinking about joining. The message is simple. If you aren’t in, don’t join. If you are currently in the service, do what you have to do to survive, bring your troops home safely, and get out. The missions are garbage, the wars are lies, and you are serving the special interests of the elite, not your nation. Don’t be a fool and buy into the propaganda. Contrary to your leadership that sold you out long ago, I actually care about your well-being and the future of this nation. If I can wake even one person up and save them from being killed or heinously wounded in another unnecessary war, this post was worth infinitely more than the time it took to compose.
The issue of service in today’s military was directly put to me by a mother who asked whether I thought her son should enlist in the Marines. Knowing this lady and her son, I thought long and hard before answering her with a definitive, “No.” The lady knew that I had spent many years in the military in both the enlisted and officer ranks and had served in combat in both Iraq and Afghanistan so seemed taken aback by my blunt answer. Clearly surprised, she asked what my rationale was for saying it was a bad idea. I told her the military was bad enough while I was in the service, but the waste and abuse of the lives of our service members is now at the worst levels since Vietnam. Our troops are simply cannon fodder for wars the US not only has engineered, but has no intention of decisively ending. Granted, the equipment and training the military provides is better than it ever has been, but our senior leadership is the worst I have ever seen, there is no will or strategy to win, and our troops are being left for dead in places like Afghanistan for political expedience. Further, all of our efforts, as honorable as they were, were completely in vain in Iraq and Afghanistan because of the massive dereliction in our leadership. If our leadership and all of NATO couldn’t even handle the Taliban, what does your survivability look like in the military when the elites pick the next fight with an actual competent enemy like Russia or China? Until the US military purges its general staff and the country elects a competent Commander-in-Chief, run for the door.
Just today in Afghanistan we lost another American serving with a special operations unit. This makes me sick to my stomach with sadness. Dropping all of the patriotic propaganda, what did that operator give his life for? How is the loss even remotely justifiable? Read more
One Step Closer to Major Middle Eastern War between Iran and Saudi Arabia
Readers of Last Minute Survival are well aware that I have been correctly predicting for years the progression of events in the Middle East toward a total regional conflagration. Speaking broadly of a few key events, I predicted the rise of ISIL, the spread of the “civil war in Syria” to Iraq, and the proxy war between Saudi Arabia (Sunni) and Iran (Shia) going hot. The execution of a prominent dissident Shiite cleric in Saudi Arabia just took this conflict one notch closer to a total war, which the United States is not prepared. The brewing war has triggered a nuclear arms race in the Middle East and it now appears averting a massive war will not be possible. The only question is how to best mitigate the damage.
This escalation has not been fully appreciated in the US and in fact seems to have been discounted by the US Department of State, which will certainly be “surprised” when both countries begin to mobilize their militaries. Both nations are now moving toward a war footing, which has initiated a secret nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Iran knows Saudi Arabia has a far more modern military and the backing of the United States, the Gulf Coast Countries, and possibly Israel, Turkey, and Pakistan. Iran is also threatened by Saudi backed Sunni extremists fighting to overthrow its allies to the west in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon while being boxed in by another Saudi backed Sunni extremist group, the Taliban, to its east in Afghanistan. Iran knows Pakistan has agreed to supply Saudi Arabia with nuclear weapons. Iran’s generals are not stupid and assess that they must obtain nuclear weapons if they have any hope of successfully defending Iran. They are also racing to improve their anti-access and missile technologies to thwart any type of amphibious invasion from the US while effectively being able to attack Saudi Arabia’s water and oil installations from afar. Further, as I have warned, Iran has been racing to operationally deploy advanced, Russian, S-300 air defense systems, which will effectively deny Iranian airspace to all but 5th Generation fighter/attack aircraft.
As overwhelming as the odds may seem to Iran, Saudi Arabia is justifiably terrified of a powerful Iran. What Iran lacks in high tech military hardware, it has in willpower and individual fighting capability, which will prove far more potent than anything the Saudis can muster for a war. Those of us that have worked with the Saudi military know that the Saudi military is a paper tiger. The Saudis are lazy and incompetent as warriors, but they have a big checkbook that keeps the US military industrial complex in business. This keeps Washington and the Pentagon from ever effectively addressing the issue, which will become brutally apparent when a direct conflict between the nations breaks out. In a head to head fight, Iran’s fighters are better trained, better organized, and far more motivated than even the best Saudi units. In fact, aside from perhaps Jordan, the Arab armies are a joke. Most are probably more likely to shoot each other (intentionally or not) before ever fielding an effective force against an enemy. Further, although Iran has proven its ability to project forces beyond its borders successfully, and would no doubt use Iraq as a staging area for a land invasion of Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia has no such force projection capability. Without the ability to actually invade and defeat Iran, Saudi Arabia could only at best win a partial victory over Iran. As such, Saudi Arabia must rely on buying off Washington to intervene and fight its war with American troops and treasure. The Pentagon at least gets this, but what isn’t well understood by either the generals or the White House is that the Saudi backup plan if Washington bulks is to have a credible nuclear weapons capability that they will use if Washington won’t act. The US is totally unprepared for and to date has no policy to even remotely address. Read more
Russian transfer of S-300 Air Defense System may force Israeli to initiate war with Iran before winter
Over two decades ago, I began warning that United States’ policies in the Middle East could set the US and world on a trajectory for a major war. Unfortunately, every major policy decision the US has made has exclusively served the interests of the global elite to the detriment of humanity. The trajectory set by these policy decisions has moved the world closer and closer to a full blown world war. More recently, I have warned that the Obama Administration was walking a dangerous foreign policy line in the Middle East that if mismanaged, could lead to horrific consequences. Today, it is become blatantly clear to all but the most ideologically blinded that Obama and his amateur staff have chosen incorrectly and created a perfect storm in the Middle East that will likely lead to a full scale regional war. The culmination of these decisions, no matter their motivation, has set the stage for a showdown between Israel and Iran that is now most likely irreversible. This showdown is what I have previously described as the worst case scenario that must be avoided at all costs. The consequences of which will be catastrophic for not just the Middle East, but the US and the rest of the world. As recently as August, news broke that could finally force Israel into unilateral action against Iran, which will pull the entire region and the US into war, collapse the already sick global economy, and usher in the New World Order.
The event I am speaking of is the Russian announcement that it will move forward with the transfer of S-300 Air Defense Systems to Iran. These sophisticated air defense systems are capable of detecting and successfully interdicting aircraft flown by the Israeli Air Force (IAF) as well as ballistic missiles, drones, and cruise missiles. The potency of this air defense system will alternate the current military balance of the region and has Israel on edge. Read more
Last Minute Survival Analysis Confirmed: Former head of Defense Intelligence Agency confirms US leaders committed the treason of the century when US secretly created terrorist organization known as ISIS/ISIL/IS
Well, once again, I told you so (see LastMinuteSurvival.com and search term “ISIL”). It baffles me how so often people are either willfully ignorant or naively trusting of government even in face of a nearly uninterrupted history of abuses. In just one more case of government deceit and treachery, the truth has finally emerged about how the worst Islamic terrorist organization to emerge in our lifetime rose to power. The truth is the United States armed, trained, equipped, and advised ISIS/ISIL/IS terrorists to carry out the policy plans of the global elite, just as I have explicitly stated for years. This illegal action, more than any other recent revelation, should confirm once and for all that the entire “war on terrorism” has been a manufactured lie from the very beginning. The terrorism “big lie” was fabricated to serve the interests of the global elite. The terrorism boogeyman was created, nursed, and used to convince you through fear, propaganda, and false patriotism to surrender your rights and freedoms in the name of “security.” Now that the truth is out, it is time to use our legal system to root out these enemies of the state by indicting, prosecuting, and punishing every single military and political leader involved in the treason of the century against the US.
Nobody less than the former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, General Flynn, just confirmed that the US knowingly supported Islamic terrorists to form the organization known as ISIS/ISIL/IS. Let me state this again in simple terms so there is zero misconception. The United States secretly and willfully, with full knowledge of the disastrous consequences, set up bases, provided weapons, training, and funding, and then provided intelligence and advisor support to the worst known Islamic terrorists in the world to overthrow a nation that had done nothing to the United States. These terrorists were known at the time to be actively seeking to kill all Christians, crush the West, and specifically destroy the United States. These terrorists were dedicated to killing Americans and many had already taken part in operations against US personnel in Iraq and Afghanistan. Nonetheless, the secret program was ordered so that the ultra-wealthy oil cartels could build a gas pipeline and get richer, undermine Russia, and placate the Israeli lobby in the lead up to a war with Iran. Read more
Economic Collapse Begins: US Government and central planners launch cyber attack on New York Stock Exchange and then blame China
As I warned on Monday, all of the signs and conditions for the markets to begin their crash were in place. I specifically said to watch China, Greece, oil, and bonds. As of today, the markets were a disaster. Even after substantial intervention by central banks, the markets are still crashing globally. This has the potential to spiral out of control very quickly as the Chinese stock market has already lost nearly 40% of its value erasing trillions in a matter of hours. As such, it appears the central planners are losing the ability to manipulate markets higher. The market conditions now are pointing to a severe market correction and everyone should take action to protect any wealth they have managed to accumulate or risk major losses over the next 48 hours. Ominously, this crash is also being used to provoke a war with the Chinese to distract the population from the fact our leaders have criminally obliterated the US economy.
Most consequential at the moment, it appears the central planners in China have so far been unable to stabilize their markets and halt the collapse in their stock market. I noted this would be a key factor to monitor this week as an indication of whether or not the markets were going to move toward correction. Read more
Has the Great Economic Collapse Begun?
Over the last two weeks, major movements have been taking place economically across the globe. These events are moving international markets into “correction” territory, but cumulatively, could quickly spiral into a global meltdown of markets. Although, the US hasn’t reached critical mass and may actually experience a short term strengthening of markets as international markets flee to the US for safety; the signs of a major crash are now flashing red. What should you look for and what can you do?
Four major places to watch right now are Greece/European Union (EU), China, oil, and bonds. Greece has the potential to start a ripple effect against austerity across the EU triggering a banking run, panic, and global losses. This could unhinge the massive derivatives market and alone cause a global economic collapse. China is so big now that the recent losses in their market will spread globally this week if the losses are not stabilized. Any major downturn in China’s economy will further increase the already saturated oil market driving the price per barrel even lower. If oil continues to drop and stay low, US oil producing states will feel this the hardest, which will sharply increase US unemployment numbers. The loss of high paying jobs will throw even the totally fudged US financial numbers clearly back into recession territory and drag the world back down with it. Finally, the bond market has seen a liquidity crunch that likely will only get worse. If governments can’t manage to keep their bond yields low, the already massive debt loads (and payments on interest) these nations are carrying will explode and force them into financial crises far worse than anything Greece is facing.
Presently, the situation in Greece is very serious. Read more
Flashpoint Armenia: Why you should care
Beyond the very real genocide of Armenians by Turks, which has been highly politicized recently, few of us have any real knowledge of Armenia. In fact, many people couldn’t even find Armenia on a map and certainly do not view it as becoming a strategic geopolitical issue. That may be about to change. In another covert escalation of force designed to undermine Russia, the CIA has been supporting another “colour” revolution, like it did in the Ukraine, to break away a long time Russian ally and former Soviet satellite. Although, media reports generally will only speak of protests over things like corruption and electricity prices, make no mistake, the hidden US agenda of regime change is once again afoot. The Russians know this and so does the US. http://www.azatutyun.am/content/article/27106463.html Like Crimea, Russia views Armenia as geographically strategic and will retaliate proportionally if the US continues with its covert revolution. Read more
ISIL Takes Ramadi: World One Step Closer to World War
Perhaps if the Iraqi soldiers used ammunition in their M240 machine gun they would have better results against ISIL. I loved poorly staged propaganda photos.
This week’s news that ISIL inflicted a heavy defeat upon Iraqi government forces is no surprise. Whether or not ISIL can hold the ground is yet to be seen, but it sends a strong signal Washington’s strategy in Iraq is failing contrary to the claims of Obama’s paid propagandists. Further, and more ominous for the world, it moves the Middle East one notch closer to an all-out regional war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. As I have predicted for years, this coming conflagration is now a near certainty. At this stage of the on-going proxy war there are simply no peaceful off ramps and it will be a winner takes all struggle. Either radical Sunni extremists aligned under Saudi Arabia or radical Shia extremists aligned under Iran will prevail, which in either case will trigger a global war that involves the US and Israel. For those of you saying, “Good, let them kill each other,” a lesson on the global economic implications of a sudden shut down of oil from the Middle East is in order. In short, outright chaos will ensue.
Those of you that read my work regularly are well aware that I predicted the failure of US efforts to curb ISIL and the fall of Ramadi well over a year ago and the growing regional conflict in the Middle East “years” ago. In fact, even my recent my global updates from April 20, 2015 speak specifically to Ramadi and ISIL, http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2015/04/20/global-updates/. In the brief, I specifically called out the Obama Administration as misleading the US on our “success” against ISIL in Tikrit and said that ISIL had simply shifted its forces south to “Ramadi” where I expected it to achieve success. Below is the exact exert from my forecast. Read more
Who benefits when the world attacks Yemen? Al Qaeda and the Elite.
Who benefits when the world attacks Yemen? This is a question that policies makers should have asked before allowing the president to start another foreign war. In fact, it was asked and the answer was Al Qaeda. Being that Al Qaeda would be the ultimate winner, one must wonder what kind of treason allowed this war to proceed. In spite of this knowledge, the United States still backed an Arab coalition in a completely unjustified offensive war against Yemen. The purported purpose was to bring back the ousted president, but anyone with half a brain would immediately know this was preposterous. Yemenis are not going to ever accept a president that used a foreign militaries to kill its citizens to regain power. Thus, knowing that the US was aware that by weakening the Houthi rebels they would by default strengthen Al Qaeda and still not achieve their stated goal, one must look deeper to reveal very disturbing consistencies in US Foreign Policy.
To recap, since the ouster of Yemen’s president widely seen as a US puppet, Saudi Arabia has overtly and the US clandestinely bombed Yemen. The Houthis still retain power and the population is even more aligned against the ousted president than before the war against Yemen was unleashed. Further, AQ broke into a prison and released 300 terrorist prisoners. Al Qaeda has also made significant territorial gains and seized military bases containing weapons stockpiles. In the meantime, a humanitarian disaster has ensued with thousands of civilians being killed in the bombing raids and fighting while many Yemenis are starving to death. This operation by any bar has been a total failure and is becoming a humanitarian disaster. However, no one in the media or Congress is calling out President Obama, the Nobel Peace Prize recipient, for starting an unconstitutional war, losing it, and killing thousands of innocent people all while aiding our enemy. Why? Read more
Global Updates
In addition to my more in-depth posts, I will be routinely adding short bulletized points to keep our readers up to date on global issues. If you would like more details on a specific issue, please post to comments or email me directly at LMS.
April 20, 2015
- US sending warships to “prevent” Iran from providing arms to Houthis in Yemen. The US has greatly contributed to the crisis in Yemen and engaging in a stand-off with Iran over support to each country’s respective proxies is a losing card for the White House to play. The US (aside from special interests) has nothing to gain from this conflict. The only possible winner will be AQAP (Al Qaeda). Yemen’s US backed “president” in exile will never be able to return to “effective” power after using foreign militaries to bomb and kill Yemeni civilians. Further, the Houthis, which pose no threat to the US will be weakened, but not pushed from power. The US will no doubt dupe itself into another disastrous conflict. The end result will be prolonging the chaos in Yemen and AQAP gaining significantly more power. Just as I warned, the proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia/Qatar in Syria would eventually engulf the entire region and turn hot. If the US policy in Yemen was to create greater Middle East conflict, empower Islamic extremism, and further destabilize global oil markets, it has achieved its objectives.
- US arrests suspects attempting to join ISIL. The US acts as though this was a great crime fighting/anti-terrorism win; however, it is a sign of deeper problems that have been self-inflicted. Minnesota in particular is a hot bed of Islamic activity because of the suicidal domestic immigration policies that favor and actually import tens of thousands of people into the US annually from countries known for radical Islamism such as Somalia. In short, it is a self fulfilling prophecy that has been used to justify an unnecessary domestic spy/police state and draconian legislation such as the “Patriot Act.”
- Iraqi military backed by US and Iran fails to retake key cities from ISIL. Contrary to rosy claims by the Obama Administration, the Iraqi Army has only scored marginal victories against what appears to be a far more dynamic and better led ISIL force. Specifically, government forces were able to seize some key areas around Tikrit, but have so far failed to effectively secure the city. Further, while the Iraqi military was focused north in Tikrit, ISIL has appeared to have shifted its fighting strength to the Ramadi area where it has gained ground in recent weeks. As predicted, the violence and bloodshed in Iraq will continue and grow as long as the proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia continues to burn. As one side gains ground, the other side will bolster its support for its proxy until the conflict has grown so big and so violent it will directly involve its original sponsors. The end result will be a disaster for both the Middle East and the US.
- Drought in California continues at record levels. If you haven’t planted a large garden this year, plan to pay more…a lot more, at the grocery store. As warned in previous articles last winter, food prices have continued to rise. This price inflation isno where near at its peak with beef prices skyrocketing. The conditions that continue to cause price hikes will persist. Crops largely grown in California will see some of the largest spikes such as nuts and lettuces.
- http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/02/19/californias-water-shortage-will-lead-to-a-spike-in-food-prices-and-economic-peril/
- http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/02/24/the-impending-food-price-crisis-time-to-plant-your-survival-garden/
- http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/02/24/feds-withhold-water-to-california-farmers-for-first-time-in-54-years/
- High taxes and over regulation finally ruining Virginia. Northern Virginia, an area historically known for its strong economy and growing population has begun to feel the pressure of increasingly socialist governmental policies. Naturally, the region draws on people working for the federal government and the big bureaucracy mindset has metastasized across the Potomac into the Commonwealth of Virginia. High taxes, oppressive regulations, and stifling over population have all been the result. This caustic bureaucratic recipe has led to a fed up population that is now leaving in droves. Ironically, many of these people leaving were responsible at the ballot boxes for the socialist turn in governance. Perhaps they learned their lesson and will not repeat their same mistake in the future, but that is doubtful. As the population growth levels out and then begins to drop, local governments will soon realize budget deficits are growing and they are unable to provide the services originally programmed. Without undoing what has become a socialist style of governance in the enclave, Northern Virginiais doomed to double down on its current failures and create another communist utopia on the banks of the Potomac.
- http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/washington-area-population-increase-slowing-down-census-figures-indicate/2015/04/19/34683ab0-d7b5-11e4-8103-fa84725dbf9d_story.html
By Guiles Hendrik
Peace with Iran will lead to war: Part 2
Hardened Iranian Nuclear Facility at Fordo(w)
Last week I discussed why peace with Iran was the preferred option. I outlined a number of salient points uninformed talking heads in the media and well paid Israel lobbyists such as the former US Ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton, will never bring up. In short, the costs of a war with Iran will far outweigh the costs of accepting a turbulent peace. Even a successful war against Iran will be a Pyric victory and cause an economic collapse in the US. Further, even if Iran did test a nuclear weapon, we would still have plenty of time to exercise the war option should it be necessary. Unfortunately, even if the US does manage to broker a peace deal with Iran, war is now close to a certainty. In the event of a war with Iran, there will be dire implications for the US. Today I will discuss why war is now imminent, how it will likely be initiated, and the catastrophic effects on the US you must prepare to endure. Read more
Peace with Iran will lead to war, but not why you think: Part 1
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, right, speaks with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Geneva, Switzerland, in January. Kerry will meet again with Zarif this weekend in the Swiss capital as March deadline approaches. (Keystone/ Martial Trezzini/file/Associated Press)
Over the last decade, I have produced many papers and articles analyzing events in the Middle East and their geopolitical impact for academia, commercial publications, think tanks, and government agencies. I stand by my track record as one of the most prescient in the business. To that end, predicting chaos in the Middle East has been easy, but combining the what (violence) with the who, when, why, and how are the far more demanding predictions. One the worst case scenarios for a broad outbreak of violence in the Middle East has been the possibility of a major war between Israel and Iran. This conflict would immediately go regional with the on-going proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia pulling in the remaining Middle Eastern countries. Once it goes regional, it will be nearly impossible for the U.S., Europe, and Russia to remain on the sidelines. I have described in detail how this would likely play out as well as how it could be prevented in previous posts (see a partial list below). I am writing today again with a dire warning for anyone willing to listen. The most recent events occurring across the Middle East are now signaling the worst case scenario of a major conflict with Iran will come to pass as I have previously predicted. This first article discusses why war with Iran is unnecessary and must be avoided. Part II will discuss why even with an Iranian deal, war is inevitable and the dire consequences we can expect. Read more
Islamic extremism and what lies ahead? Part II: The War on ISIL and Syria
Airstrikes in Iraq
President Obama and his top military advisors have learned nothing and have made a grave mistake starting a war with Syria using ISIL as the pretext. Just as I was confident and proven correct that this situation would materialize, I am equally confident in my analysis that this new war will lead to America’s greatest foreign policy disaster to date. Neither war with Syrian nor ISIL will be decisive, successful, or lead to greater security for the American people. However, the war may indeed turn out to lead to America’s unwinding as the world’s sole superpower and economic bankruptcy. This post will continue my analysis on the on-going crisis unfolding in the Middle East respective of Obama’s newest war. Read more
Putin vs Obama Part III: Why Russia will win
Putin speaks during his visit to the Crimean port of Sevastopol.
Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger wrote: “For the West, the demonization of Vladimir Putin is not a policy; it is an alibi for the absence of one.” Kissinger, like him or not, is spot on in his succinct assessment of Obama’s policy for Russia. As the West descends into another reckless and disastrous war in the Middle East, Putin must be quietly laughing knowing that very soon the US will soon have its Soviet moment of collapse. In fact, to strategically defeat the US, all Russia must do is wait for the utter mismanagement of our nation to bring about its implosion. In this third and final installment of our exclusive analysis of the conflicting Russo-American policies, it is clear that in the first major post-Cold War struggle between Russia and the US, it will be Russia that scores a victory in the Ukraine crisis. Read more
Putin versus Obama Part II: Who is the better leader?
US President Barack Obama (L) holds a bilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin during the G8 summit at the Lough Erne resort near Enniskillen in Northern Ireland, on June 17, 2013. The conflict in Syria was set to dominate the G8 summit starting in Northern Ireland on Monday, with Western leaders upping pressure on Russia to back away from its support for President Bashar al-Assad. AFP PHOTO / JEWEL SAMAD (Photo credit should read JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/Getty Images)
In my on-going series analyzing the growing rift between the US and Russia, it is important to evaluate a nation’s leadership. Specifically, let’s look at the qualifications and performance to date of Presidents Putin and Obama. Before we go any further, it is necessary to lay down a few ground rules of the debate. First of all, I want to dispel the myth that a person can be of mediocre intellect, but a good president as long as they have a good staff. This oft stated notion is a ridiculous excuse used by political parties to mitigate criticism that their brainless candidate is not up to the task. Further, it is true that no one man has total control of a government, but to say that the leaders of Russia and the US have their hands tied and do not have real power would be a poorly informed lie. In fact, both presidents have substantial power and influence over both foreign and domestic affairs and craft geopolitical strategy that affects the world. If there wasn’t truth to this, then why would we ascribe so much prestige upon leaders like Thatcher, Reagan, Lincoln, and Washington? Due to the real power and influence presidents wield, it is important to assess who has demonstrated the ability to more effectively lead and use that power. Based on that evaluation, you are better able to analyze and predict the actions and ultimate outcomes of any potential or on-going political conflicts between the US and Russia. Read more
Putin versus Obama Part I: Are they really so different?
Much of the rhetoric behind the push to create a new Cold War centers on Russian President Vladimir Putin. The complicit media and the Obama Administration have pulled no punches in smearing President Putin and casting him as the most evil of tyrants and a political thug imprisoning opposition, seizing assets, enriching himself on the government’s dime, and intimidating reporters and political dissidents. In fact, much of this is probably true; however, before we cast the first stone and judge Putin as evil incarnate and start World War III, perhaps some national retrospection of our own actions and character would be in order. Let’s step back and evaluate America’s actions and consider whether or not we may have lost the moral high ground and then,…just perhaps, should rethink our policy, attitudes, and actions toward Russia. Read more
As gas prices prepare to skyrocket, thank President Obama and the Saudis
I would like to advise our readers that now would be a good time to buy any fuel you may need for the coming months in bulk if you have the option. At the least, you might as well fill your gas cans and fuel tanks because the price of gas is not going to be getting any cheaper anytime soon. Due to the support provided by the United States (Authorized by President Obama) and Saudi Arabia (Qatar and Turkey to lesser extents), we have armed, trained, and equipped the largest Islamic extremist army of modern times and unleashed it on the Middle East. This army is now massacring thousands across Iraq and Syria to include countless Christians. The actions of this terrorist army will soon come home to haunt Americans that were too apathetic and or foolish to demand President Obama and Congress cease support to terrorist rebels in Syria.
As Iraq implodes, it is the Saudis and Qataris who are handsomely profiting from the spike in oil prices. The spike is a result of Obama’s schizophrenic foreign policy disaster that made it all possible. As America’s badly battered economy faces another blow it can ill afford you now must spend even more money you don’t have to just fill your gas tank, remember it was President Obama and his pals in Saudi Arabia that hooked you up. Oh, and just in case you didn’t catch it, the US government is using your tax dollars to fund terrorists that want to kill you. President Obama is claiming the US needs gun control while using your tax dollars to hand military grade advanced weapons to 100% ardent, hardened, American hating, terrorists. To add insult to injury, this is all being done while simultaneously the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is chasing domestic boogiemen at home. Remember, DHS is claiming you, your veteran uncle, and your 90 year old grandmother are potential terrorists so you must be subjected to total surveillance and physical searches that in the extreme could be considered forcible sodomy. Don’t worry though; this is all for your “security” and to “protect” you.
As I write, the extreme of extreme Islamists forces are massacring their way to Baghdad. To date, the Iraqi army has been totally routed and has fled leaving all of the weapons and equipment for the enemy. The true test of the Islamist army will be when it begins to enter Baghdad and the first all Shia neighborhoods. This army is not immune to the same carnage any army would face in urban combat where the fighting is up close and brutal. As such, I expect the onslaught to be stalled in Baghdad and perhaps even to bypass Baghdad for key oil infrastructure. Nonetheless, the Sunnis have defeated and subjugated the Shia in Iraq before and it is likely they could again. Even if the extremist forces are halted entering Baghdad, they will most likely turn the thrust of their advance to the east and bypass Baghdad. This will allow the army to seize and or destroy key oil infrastructure. This all but guarantees disruptions to production and that the cost of oil and therefore fuel is about to skyrocket.
What can be done about this for now is most likely nothing. We can watch and enjoy the spike in gas prices as our contracting economy shrinks even faster. However, I would recommend you take a whopping five minutes out of your day and cut and paste an email to your two senators and one representative in Congress and demand Congress freezes any form of support or aid to the rebels/terrorists fighting Assad and now campaigning in Iraq. You may also want to call into your favorite talk radio show and discuss these topics. Finally, come November, vote out every single incumbent and replace them with independent representatives.
By Guiles Hendrik
June 18, 2014
All rights reserved.
Earthquakes on the Rise in Oklahoma: A new theory to explain seismic activity in areas once considered geologically stable.
Many of our readers have noticed and been tracking an uptick in the number of earthquakes in areas previously not known for seismic activity. Oklahoma, in particular the Oklahoma City area, has been experiencing an unusually high number of quakes in recent years. Many have speculated that fracking is causing these quakes. However, fracking alone doesn’t appear to be a viable explanation because the quakes often happen where there is no fracking and where there is fracking no quakes occur. Correlation isn’t necessarily causation, but in the case of fracking the evidence seems to directly contradict claims it causes earthquakes. Seismologists agree that fracking can for the most part be ruled out as a cause of the quakes. Nonetheless, scientists have been baffled by seismic activity in places like Oklahoma and are at a loss to explain what is going on.
After reviewing the information, I would like to propose an admittedly anecdotal theory. Empirically speaking, it seems that there is a strong correlation between the quake concentrations and the Central Oklahoma aquifer, which has been significantly drawn down over the last few decades. Theoretically speaking, major quakes have occurred along the New Madrid Fault due to the Earth’s crust rebounding after the glaciers receded in the last ice age. Using this as a rough corollary, it is conceivable that as a major aquifer is emptied, a similar action may be occurring. In fact, these quakes may be the result of the earth settling into voids created when the water is removed combined with the fact that billions of tons of water pressure have also been removed as the water has been pumped from the ground. The combined effect has created tensions (or more specifically, released tensions) in the crust great enough to cause quakes as the crust resettles.
To further test this theory, one must look to other areas that have begun to recently experience seismic activity where historically it has been rare to nonexistent. The recent 2011 DC earthquake centered near Charlottesville, Virginia may have also been due to similar causal mechanisms even though there are known faults that run through the area that have been quiet for centuries. A closer look at the geology around the fast growing city of Charlottesville (much like the population of Oklahoma City) shows that its water is fed from a central aquifer not directly associated with other larger aquifers. Like the Central Oklahoma Aquifer, Charlottesville seems to be sitting on more of an isolated underground lake than a river. As such, both can be drawn down considerably with heavy water usage. In fact, a reduction in the water level of Charlottesville may have also caused the large and unforeseen quake that shook much of Virginia and Washington, DC. Note that this theory is not targeted at areas that are known for seismic activity due to other known causes such as volcanism and active faults. It is however an attempt to explain why certain areas are suddenly having seismic activity.
Considering the above, one should ask the “so what” question. Your answer to why you should care is that much of the construction in the United States is built to codes that do not take into account major seismic events due to the low frequency of their occurrence. However, as we have briefly discussed, more and more areas are now experiencing earthquakes where none had previously occurred to any great scale. This means that you may be living and working or your kids may be attending a school in a structure that isn’t designed to survive an earthquake. If my theory is correct, more and more cities drawing directly from concentrated lake-like aquifers may experience new and continued quakes that could potentially damage and or destroy structures not designed to withstand the shaking of an earthquake. If you have any concern, access the US Geological Survey’s aquifer maps online to determine if you do in fact live in one of these areas. If so, earthquake preparedness may be something you want to consider more seriously.
By Guiles Hendrik
December 17, 2013
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How Good are our Analysts? Homeland Security Issues Facing the Next Administration.
We have said from the beginning that predicting the past is for amateurs and academics, but accurately predicting future events is for true professionals. Rather than pointing out that our previous articles have been spot on and proven out by recent events we will reach back to 2007. The following memo was written by one of analysts as a short brief for whoever became the staff for the next president back in 2008. We believe the accuracy of the predictions are a shocking testament to our accuracy. Not only were the effects of natural disasters like Hurricane Sandy predicted, but the housing collapse, economic recession, failing infrastructure and power grid, dysfunctional health care, and even forest fires being set by terrorists were accurately identified as problems the Obama Administration would face!
The following is an exact cut and paste without edit of the August 2007 memo:
Homeland Security Issues Facing the Next Administration
The security of the homeland will face an unprecedented list of complex challenges in the coming year. The next President can expect to inherit numerous lingering security issues as well as new and dire threats that will require fast and adaptive solutions. This paper identifies critical shortfalls in contingency planning regarding how overlapping effects of a crisis significantly increase the overall magnitude of the threat.
In short, a single limited crisis incident can usually be contained and reacted to. These type contingencies have been analyzed and prepared for in detail. Unfortunately, this one dimensional approach only identifies point of impact operations and does not deal with the much more catastrophic results of multiple overlapping incidents that occur whether by design or chance. These type scenarios could be deemed as “worst case” and will quickly overwhelm even the combined capabilities of regional emergency services. Even more frightening is the fact that not only can these events happen by chance, but a multi-dimensional attack can be planned and orchestrated by terrorists utilizing low technology and minimal coordination.
Historically speaking, a single incident of even massive magnitude such as a natural disaster, bombing, or economic crash has been recoverable. On the contrary, recovery against multiple disasters within a short time frame has crippled nations and brought about entire geopolitical shifts. This ripple effect can begin quietly in a realm such as economics, but when coupled with a terrorist attack and or a natural disaster, the effects are dramatically magnified. A real time sample vignette to illustrate this ripple effect could transpire as such:
Time: Labor Day Weekend 2007
Background: A downturn in housing has caused the economy to slide into a recession while the federal funding has already been strained to the limit by a still on-going war. Further, money to fund infrastructure modernization and repairs has been diverted to fund the war leaving bridges, damns, and power grids dangerously ill maintained. Record heat waves have caused droughts across the nation and set record demand for energy that has increasingly relied on gulf oil imports as a result of the war in the Middle East.
Situation: A Category 4 hurricane strikes the still recovering Gulf Coast turning the region into a flooded disaster zone. Further massive fires have been spreading across the dry drought stricken United States as small bands of terrorist cells initiate a low tech coordinated arson attack across the country.
Effects: Normal emergency response teams are paralyzed to act in the flooded hurricane effected regions as they have been over committed fighting massive forest fires that have now begun to spread into residential and urban areas. Due to power lines being damaged by fire, wind, and water and a high energy demand for cooling, power grids have begun to shut down leaving entire regions of the country without power. The combined effect sparks looting and riots further deteriorating the system. Martial law is declared, but implementation becomes difficult as forces are unavailable, not networked, and unable to span the massive scale of the crisis leading to a vulnerability culminating point.
The direct attack: Just as the nation is most vulnerable, a terrorist sleeper cell is activated to conduct an attack of mass effect. The results are catastrophic and will require years and perhaps decades for America to recover from.
Latent effects: General anarchy develops leading to a massive economic downturn. Further, failure of health care facilities and standing water from flooding leads to outbreaks of disease further exasperating the already critical situation.
The above vignette is not a doomsday prophecy, but rather a very realistic scenario that could play out in present time across the nation. DHS and the incoming administration must prepare the department for these ripple effect contingencies. Although much more difficult to prepare for, immediate actions must be taken to specifically address the potential for ripple attack style events like above to be initiated by terrorists seeking to asymmetrically cripple the United States.
As we further improve the security of our homeland, our enemies continue to adapt and find new ways to strike and the foundations of the United States. Based on this, the Department of Homeland Security must work in concert with the next administration to continue to invest in threat analysis that seeks to predict how terrorists will asymmetrically evolve and develop new and to date unseen tactics for offensive attacks. Recommended actions for DHS include war gaming the potential impact of different ripple chains, developing disaster drill scenarios that take the ripple effect into account, and developing a hardened and redundant logistics infrastructure that is reminiscent of the Cold War era. A premium must also be placed on unconventional creative thinking as well as the development of agile, adaptive, and networked plans that can be rapidly implemented.
August 31, 2007
No one has a crystal ball, but they myriad of events illustrated in this memo certainly have come to pass and are developing as of the writing of this post. We will continue to provide you visionary analysis with an unprecedented record of accuracy. We hope that our analysis will help you understand the daily events happening globally and how they will affect you. Armed with this knowledge you will be better able to make decisions critical to the protection of your life, liberty, and wealth.
See link for more information on arson as a terrorist weapon:
http://www.wnd.com/2013/09/are-terrorists-setting-u-s-wildfires/?cat_orig=us
By Guiles Hendrik
All rights reserved
