The last week has witnessed some unprecedented changes across the Middle East. These events have moved the entire region closer to a major Sunni-Shia conflict. As such, it is important to review what has occurred and assess if this will lead to a major war. If so, it will have major strategic implications for the US so are you prepared? Read more
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The Russians have exhibited great restraint and diplomatic poise in recent years against the growing anti-Russian hysteria in the United States. Not only has Russia endured sanctions, but also having its aircraft shot down in Syria and a massive NATO build-up on its border. Russian security and sovereignty are being directly threatened for the high crimes of defending its historical geopolitical sphere, attempting to wipe out brutal Islamic terrorists, and rejecting globalism. However, this week has marked a turning point in US-Russian relations. The sanctions the US Congress approved against Russia based not on fact, but on hysteria and massive political propaganda pushed Russia to finally begin to retaliate. The most visible overt action was the expulsion of 755 US diplomats from Russia. However, Russian covert actions have by their nature been less visible, but nonetheless potent and we can expect more to come. Read more
Too many Americans are completely detached from the horrors of war as the US has enjoyed an unprecedented period of peace within its continental borders. The ability to not know war has been a precious luxury enjoyed for a generation in the US, but is now taken completely for granted. For most, war is just another form of entertainment like sports games and movies. In fact, to the average person, there is literally no distinction between the Hollywood war movies and reality. Why would there be when roughly only four tenths of a percent of the US population is serving in the military and far less have actually fought its wars? This makes it highly likely most Americans don’t even know a vet. There are many problems with this disassociation. However, the most detrimental has been that our nation has become so insulated from war they feel that we can kill with impunity around the globe. Symptomatic of this condition is the apathy Americans demonstrate to our military intervention overseas. We now allow our nation to blindly blunder into global conflict without even a debate. Americans have forgotten the actual human costs and the horrors of what a war is like if it comes to our own shores. This always ends badly and if a war with North Korea begins, we may very soon learn what it is like to see war again on American soil.
Currently, the Trump Administration has overtly entered or continued US involvement in wars in Yemen, Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq without any debate, votes, or justification. Literally, President Trump has picked a new fight every month he has been in office. My fear is that President Trump is now setting the stage for an unavoidable conflict with North Korea making him five for five. Let me be clear, I do not believe President Trump has many options left with North Korea. However, I fear that he will not chose the best courses of action and it will cost the US an incredibly high price. I don’t say this lightly. Conflicts in Syria and Iraq have the potential to spread and end in a disaster for the US in large part because they will financially bankrupt our nation and lead to the wholesale slaughter of millions of innocent people. However, the US has not fought a war since WWII where the adversary had the ability to attack the US mainland. Am I suggesting North Korea has the ability to physically invade the US and pelt of with missiles? No. In fact, North Korea does not have that ability at all. However, North Korea has the ability to asymmetrically attack the US with some of the most horrendous weapons known to man and you need to be prepared.
War with North Korea is looking more and more inevitable. Neither side is willing to back down. If there is to be war, even the best case is still horrible. The best case would be a surprise US nuclear strike against the North Korean regime and its military installations ending the war quickly and with minimal US and allied casualties. A far uglier picture emerges if the Trump Administration opted for, even if just initially, a conventional option. Using conventional weapons would allow North Korea time to deploy not just its conventional weapons, but its chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons. This would almost guarantee Seoul would be reduced to rubble and tens of thousands of American and South Korean casualties would be incurred within the first 24-48 hours of the conflict. If the US and South Korean troops had to conventionally fight the entire war, we would be looking at close to a million casualties and our nation utterly bankrupted by the conflict. Further, this is assuming China doesn’t enter the war, which would truly make it a WWIII endgame scenario and this isn’t at all unlikely.
However, irrespective of the financial cost and the massive loss of life associated with a war in North Korea, Americans, have in their comforts, become totally ignorant of the fact that North Korea has planned for and put in place numerous asymmetric means to attack the US. To be blunt, North Korea is prepared to attack the US homeland in horrific ways should war break out. In particular, over the course of time, North Korea is rumored to have smuggled via diplomatic pouches numerous biological and chemical weapons into the US through its United Nations mission in New York. Disturbingly, once the technology to produce these types of weapons is achieved, and North Korea has achieved it, these weapons are relatively easy to smuggle and very difficult to track. Adding to the problem is that a very small amount of these weapons can inflict large number of casualties. If true, literally every city in the US could be simultaneously attacked with a full range of biological and chemical weapons. In particular, North Korea is already believed to have smuggled VX nerve agent into a foreign country and used it to assassinate a political rival. In larger quantities, VX could be dispersed over crowded areas to inflict large numbers of casualties and to create massive panic in cities like New York and Washington, DC. If not bad enough, a far scarier threat exists. North Korea is believed to have been mass producing anthrax and has likely mass produced other biological weapons such as smallpox, francisella tularensis, and hemorrhagic fever virus. Any one of these agents could be released in densely populated areas and cause a massive number of deaths. Finally, North Korea may have the ability to detonate a space based nuclear weapon over the US releasing an EMP capable of blacking out a large portion of the North American grid. I consider this scenario less likely due to North Korea’s technological challenges and US countermeasures; however, if China becomes involved, the probability of this scenario is 100%. Should that event occur, the US will effectively be destroyed. Before the grid could be rebuilt, some congressional studies estimate that two-thirds of the US population or approximately 200,000,000 people would die. Not even our grandchildren will live to see the US recover from this type of attack. Let that sink in for a moment. The war that President Trump is about to start has the potential to destroy the US.
If what I have just written didn’t scare the hell out of you, you are completely disassociated with reality and need professional help. I am not trying to create panic and I do not subscribe to fear mongering. Unfortunately, reality isn’t always pretty and as much as we would like to deny the uncomfortable, it is critical we recognize threats and dangers. North Korea is a very big threat and far more dangerous than Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan combined. Remember, President Bush believed Afghanistan was going to be a quick war against some illiterate savages, but over a decade and a half later, we are still mired in his war we have already strategically lost. Iraq proved to be another example of Washington’s hubris and overly optimistic military predictions. In fact, the history of warfare demonstrates that in nearly every case, wars prove to be much longer, tougher, and more costly than predicted. Why would anyone think North Korea will be a war any less costly when all indicators say the exact opposite? I am curious because as I type, no fewer than three American aircraft carrier battle groups are steaming towards the Korean Peninsula prepared for a military showdown and nearly no one aside from Ron Paul is urging restraint. I think the answer is that Americans are living in ignorance and have no concept of the hell this war will most likely bring to our lives. Again, war with North Korea may be unavoidable, but we need to have a national discussion and the homeland must be prepared for the consequences.
As with all articles, I don’t just point out the problems. I offer solutions. In this case, the truth is you and I aren’t going to change a damn thing. All we can control is our actions and to a limited degree help those around us. Ideally, now may be a good time to literally leave the US for an extended vacation that lasts until either the war is over or North Korea backs down. I don’t make this recommendation lightly. However, for those that can’t leave or opt to stay, you need to prep your chem/bio response kits. Everyone in your group now should be at minimum carrying a protective mask with new filter in day bags. If you have antidote kits for nerve agents and decon kits for blister agents, those should also be packed and make sure you know how to use them. You should also have antibiotics ready for a biological attack involving a bacterial agent like anthrax. However, if the bio weapon is viral, we are looking at an untreatable megadeath situation and the only real option is to completely isolate your group from all other people until the virus has burned itself out. Wherever you plan to stay, make sure you have an area prepped with provisions and the ability to seal it from the outside with plastic and duct tape at minimum. You also should have enough chem/bio suits prepared for everyone in your group to at least bug out from the hot zone. If you are driving to work, you should have at least one complete suit in your vehicle and a contingency link up plan for everyone else in your group. Listen to me; you need to do this immediately. A war with North Korea is hopefully avoidable, but literally could be launched at any moment in the coming days to weeks.
As for preparations beyond immediate survival, you need to get as much cash on hand as you can withdraw from the banks. If you have the ability to move money to overseas bank accounts, do it now. If you are invested in stocks, you should consider taking profits now and holding them until this crisis passes. Once the market crashes, feel free to re-enter the market and buy up the cheap stocks. This will lead to a market shock and crash if a war breaks out. However, some stocks will likely sky rocket in value. I am personally seeking out companies that specialize in radiological decontamination and chem/bio defenses to invest in. Call it Machiavellian, but a crisis always presents opportunities for those with the foresight to position themselves to seize it. Make sure that person is you. In the interim, please take some basic precautions. I pray for the best, but will be preparing for the worst. We will be very blessed indeed if we can get through this crisis with the homeland unscathed.
By Guiles Hendrik
April 17, 2017
Here is a free piece of political advice. When your enemies begin condoning your actions, you should be very worried. President Trump has for the first time enjoyed what he believes to be the “support” and approval of the Establishment after launching a cruise missile attack against a Syrian air base. However, he would be a fool to think they are cheering on his actions because they support his policy. In fact, the Establishment is really laughing as they lead him by his ego down the path to destruction in Syria. As I have repeatedly warned, the Syrian Civil War is a trap and will not just take down the Trump Administration, but will bring down the United States if it becomes entangled in the conflict. Read more
Let me get right to the point. President Trump is a complete moron if he honestly believes his military advisors are setting him up for success. I want President Trump to succeed, but until he gets better advisors, he will self-destruct. By ordering a surge of US military forces into Syria without any long term strategy or plan, he is effectively forcing America into the middle of an ugly civil war that will cost our nation dearly. Further, by directly entering the Syrian Civil War, President Trump has committed our nation to yet another unnecessary and unconstitutional war without making the case to the American people or obtaining congressional approval. This won’t just be a massive military mistake; it will be a political disaster. President Trump has no idea that as the US gets sucked further and further into this war, the failure of “his” war will arm his political enemies with everything they need to ultimately cripple his administration. By listening to the generals, President Trump has, within a month of taking office, committed the US to an even more disastrous war than his predecessors, which he will lose, and quite possibly destroy his administration. Brilliant! Read more
Those of you that have followed my site known I have keenly tracked and been a part of autonomous drone development. The implications of this revolution in warfare are staggering. All too often I hear some well-intentioned, but woefully ill-informed person state that their “counter-drone” weapon is a shotgun. Rather than explain how wrong…and in a real life engagement, dead…these people are, I just want to show a video of a recent military drone test, which evaluated swarming technology. As you watch, keep in mind each one of these drones will one day be able to independently identify, select, target, engage, and kill with precision day or night, from potentially miles away. Using the swarming technology being developed, a precision strike of drones will eventually be conducted in a manner that independently targets and kills every living thing on a military base simultaneously. Let that reality sink in for a bit. Now sit back and watch this clip.
February 27, 2017
Approximately, one month ago, President Trump tasked the Pentagon with delivering him a plan to defeat the Islamic State or IS. What Trump failed to understand was the same people he tasked to solve the IS problem, were the same people that in a very large way created it. His trusted circle of advisors not only are all products of an institution with a heavily flawed system of promotion, but collectively failed to deliver a winning strategy when they were in combatant command roles. What kind of “solution” to IS does President Trump honestly think he will get from a group of institutionalized generals? Does anyone want to bet it will be a “solution” that requires more war? President Trump is literally asking “the swamp” to create his war policy and this is a fool’s errand. Based on a 100% failure rate of our Generals this century, this is unfortunately another juncture where it is very easy to assess with high certainty that the “solutions” President Trump will be presented will turn into another policy disaster. Both Presidents Bush and Obama suffered this hard lesson. President Trump needs to trash these recommendations and look at completely different ways of soliciting policy if he is to defeat IS and make America great again. This article is my attempt to speak truth to power and warn President Trump of the mistake he is making before it destroys his presidency. Read more
Again, the news cycle is moving so quickly, no one is able to completely keep up. However, with all of the focus on executive orders on immigration some major events are slipping by unnoticed. The take away is that the Middle East is again moving rapidly toward all-out war. The immigration issue is serious and important, but the war that could potential break out in the Middle East could be staggering. Here are the most recent highlights with comment:
Yemen in particular has become a flashpoint. Starting from the top, a unit from SEAL Team Six got mauled badly and lost an operator while conducting a direct action raid on a suspected al-Qaeda facility. Further, their MV-22 Osprey crashed and was destroyed on the ground. The base model of a single Osprey costs over $73,000,000 dollars and this was a special operations variant, which comes in closer to one hundred million dollars. This was in exchange for killing 14 alleged terrorists of at best, medium value, and collecting some information to better identify their network. This shows that President Trump is less risk averse when it comes to launching our soldiers into combat. If this becomes a trend, it means much more kinetic warfare and far greater US casualties. Previous to this raid, attacks in Yemen were almost exclusively being carried out by airstrikes.
If not bad enough, a Saudi Arabian Frigate, which is a warship, was attacked according to the US government, by a small boat laden with explosives. However, video evidence supports the assessment that believes the ship was hit by a missile supplied by Iran. Anti-ship missiles have been fired at US Warships in the same area over the last six months. Further, one man can be heard speaking in an Iranian accent chanting death to America. If it was indeed a missile that hit the boat, the fact is being downplayed and covered up to prevent outrage in Saudi Arabia that would demand revenge and initiate a war with Iran. This is not unprecedented in the region. An advanced ship from the UAE was also recently hit by an Iranian supplied anti-ship missile launched from Yemen and damaged so badly it had to be decommissioned. However, the UAE never officially acknowledge the attack.
Irrespective of how the attack occurred, the blast appears to have struck the upper portion of the stern of the Saudi ship inflicting serious damage and killing at least two Saudi sailors. This is a major act of war and is believed to have been launched by the Houthi rebels in Yemen. One may say this is the cost of starting an unnecessary war and invading Yemen. I would agree that it was stupid for Saudi Arabia to intervene militarily in Yemen. However, the Saudis tonight are not discussing whether or not their war was smart. What they are discussing his how to retaliate. If it in fact was an attack launched by the Houthis, the missile was undoubtedly supplied by Iran. Everyone knows this, but the question is if the Kingdom will hold the Houthis and/or the Iranians responsible. I assess the possibility of Saudi Arabia expanding their war in Yemen as high. I also see a medium likelihood of Saudi Arabia expanding it to Iran to include indicting any Iranian flagged ship near Yemen. This will undoubtedly provoke another cycle of violence. Worst case is Saudi Arabia decides to retaliate directly against Iran, but I assess this as unlikely. The fact that Saudi Arabia has not said anything about the ban in immigration from seven predominately Muslim countries factors into this situation. It is highly likely the Saudis will try to lean heavily on the US to take out Iran for them, which brings me to my next point.
Iran test launched a ballistic missile this week in violation of pretty much everything the international community has told Iran it could not do. Iran became a serial violator of any international dictates since the Obama Administration was in office. Their transgressions included seizing US Navy vessels and their crews in international waters, providing weapons to attack and kill Americans, holding Americans hostage, developing long range missile technology, and feigning attacks on our warships. Following precedent, Iran conducted a launch of another ballistic missile and has yet to be “reprimanded” by the new Administration. Perhaps, Iran thinks it has gotten away with it and President Trump will be a push over. If so, I believe they have badly miscalculated the new American President. President Trump in a short amount of time will respond. How, is the only question. Trumps retaliatory options range from lodging a diplomatic protest and re-invoking sanctions to launching a nuclear strike.
Yes, I do think President Trump is serious enough he may indeed use nuclear weapons during his time in office to prevent a bloody and costly deployment of ground troops against a country like North Korea or Iran. Nonetheless, I assess the Administration will come out with a clear warning to Iran, but will stop short of a military strike. Iran will get one warning, but no more. However, there is a perfect coalescing of Saudi and US interests with regards to annihilating Iran. Iran should take this seriously because Saudi Arabia may be on the phone right now with Washington discussing military options for the attack on their ship. If Trump greenlights retaliation, we could have a major outbreak of war in days. However, I reiterate, I think right now we will have some clear red lines drawn and preparations made, but the war won’t begin just yet.
In summary, things are getting hotter in the Middle East. All that is needed is a slight nudge and the entire region could erupt. I do not see anything getting calmer anytime soon. In fact, I think we are about to see a major escalation of war in the Middle East.
By Guiles Hendrik
January 30, 2017
Much has been made of President Trump’s proposed domestic policies as he was sworn in today as the 45th President of the United States. However, as all eyes are focused on Washington, DC, President Trump’s first major political test may have already materialized. North Korea has threatened it will conduct an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test in violation of international sanctions. President Trump had already stated that any North Korean launch “won’t happen,” (See: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/02/world/asia/trump-twitter-north-korea-missiles-china.html?_r=0) so a showdown between the US and North Korea is underway. How each side acts and responds could literally mean the US engages in a nuclear war with North Korea potentially within a week. Read more
The current “deal” with Iran over its nuclear program is better defined as policy capitulation. To be viable, the deal must have teeth and achieve the endstate desired by the United States. The current “deal” with Iran is neither and ultimately does not stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Therefore, a renegotiation of the treaty is necessary to avoid war. However, war may still be the inevitable result of either doing nothing or trying to force a renegotiation the Iranians are unwilling to engage in. If Iran continues to get closer to a nuclear weapon, there will be a major war irrespective of whether or not the US wants it. Further, if Iran feels cornered, it may simply refuse to renegotiate anything and regionally retaliate against US pressure leading to a military engagement. Iran isn’t a paper tiger and has the ability cause the US significant problems if we do drive a hard bargain. Donald Trump will need to understand this in finite detail or the US will pay in blood and treasure abroad and at home. Read more
Most of you have read a lot of articles and reports lately concerning escalating protests and violence across the country. Many of you are rightfully asking how far this will go. I have seen a number of reports that essentially dismiss the possibility of an armed rebellion beginning in America. They are wrong. People need to wake up. The United State has already passed through the proto-revolutionary phase and is now involved in an active low level insurgency that has the potential to quickly spread should the proper conditions present. The question isn’t whether or not a violent revolution could start in the US. The question is how bad will it get. Make no mistake; we are at war with a violent, leftist insurgency right now.
Let’s begin with a quick history lesson. President Obama began his political career in the living room of a domestic terrorist, Bill Ayers. Read more