I am not being dramatic when I say our Vice President just unilaterally declared war on Russia. In diplomatic circles, the phrase “words mean things” is quite literal. This week, none other than the second most powerful leader in the world flatly announced the US was going to attack Russia. Make no mistake, this was not understood by the world as a warning. This was a declaration. Now that the “Crazy Joe” Biden has by de facto started World War Three what happens next? Read more
Archive for Global War
The following summary of recent world events is decidedly negative. This is not due to overt pessimism as much as the facts are just plain bad. In fact, I didn’t even include events like the effects of Hurricane Mathew, the attack on our warship off the coast of Yemen, and the assassination of more police around the US. The world is not getting any safer and indicators are all pointing to things worsening as we move into late fall and winter. The following are major events you should be taking note of with short comments.
- Situation in Syria: Syrian government forces backed by Iran and Russia continue to pound Aleppo and are nearing a strategic breakthrough. All actors in Syria recognize that if Assad is able to recapture Aleppo from the Islamic extremists it will be the beginning of the end for Washington’s terrorist proxies in Syria. As such, there is panic from Doha to Washington. The terrorist coalition knows that it is now or never for major intervention, which may force the White House to order direct strikes against the Syrian regime, which undoubtedly will be countered by Russian retaliation. This creates the potential for a rapid outbreak of a major regional war that could go global. We have effectively arrived at the point I have repeatedly forecasted would occur in Syria where either Moscow or Washington accepts a massive strategic policy defeat or there is a major war…perhaps both. This is inescapable at this point. The best case scenario is if the US backs out by aligning with Russia to defeat ISIL and negotiate a peace deal that leaves the regime in place for now. This is highly unlikely and if Hillary Clinton is elected, all but impossible.
- I am forecasting that the US will continue to spread false anti-Assad and anti-Russian propaganda to drum up war sentiment in the US to prepare the public for the announcement airstrikes against Syrian military positions. If the neo-cons within the establishment get their way the air strikes will happen, but there will be an immediate cost to US forces. Russia will defend its positions on the ground and engage any US forces that directly threaten Russian lives and interests. In this event, it is possible we will witness the first combat losses of US Fifth Generation Fighters, which Washington is rightfully terrified will occur. The loss of these jets will show everyone how much superiority the US has lost against countries like China under Obama. This will jeopardize the multi-billion dollar acquisition program that has been riddled with corruption, failures, and delays. As such, it is far more likely Washington will lead with cruise missile and drone strikes that are easier to deny and hide if they fail to achieve their objectives, but are also much less likely to achieve decisive results.
One of the single biggest mistakes preppers make is that they buy into the myth that relocating to a small region in the North West corner of the United States is their “best” chance of survival. As you now know from my previous three articles in this series, this theory is inaccurate and is not based on any sound research. Further, it causes people to unnecessarily incur significant additional costs and difficulties when developing their preparedness plans. However, what you still may not know is that there is a large body of empirical evidence that repeatedly demonstrates people living in isolated, remote areas are often at the greatest risk during wide spread social chaos and collapse. Not coincidentally, these people also suffer some of the most hardships. Therefore, with respect to our contemporary situation in the United States, preppers relocating to Idaho with the explicit intent to escape an oppressive government and or are planning to escape widespread instability during a systemic collapse of the system might very well be signing their death warrants. Instead, contrary to contemporary prepping strategies, it would be better to be closer if not in the midst of a more densely populated area.
I understand what I just wrote probably sent many readers into anger and shock. Nonetheless, it is far better to get the right information now then to continue along a misguided path to destruction. No doubt, some readers will immediately discount what I am about to say because they are blinded by their own preconceived biases. I cannot help those people. Thankfully, the majority of my readers are intelligent thinking people that will quickly grasp the conclusions to be drawn from the evidence and modify their preparedness strategies accordingly. In fact, don’t take my word alone, I invite everyone to conduct their own independent research into our prepping assumptions and disseminate their findings.
My theories seem counterintuitive to the premise that the farther from people you are, the farther from harm you are. This is because the basic assumptions of this safety distance premise are flawed. As the theory goes, in the event of a collapse or major catastrophe, being located away from people in a remote, self-sufficient redoubt is your best chance. I have already discussed why the 300 mile rule is a useless metric and that the notion of a “Golden Horde” of refugees fleeing a city and destroying all in their wake is equally unfounded and completely untrue. The last pillar of this theory is that being isolated conveys additional survival benefits. To test it accurately, one must evaluate case studies from around the world and then correctly apply them to a realistic scenario domestically. Read more
Before I post Part IV, I want to pause and recap the huge amount of ground already covered in parts one and two of this series (See links below to read and catch up). Previously, I showed that the most common assumptions preppers base their relocation decisions on are completely false and actually counterproductive to outright dangerous. The research I presented is groundbreaking within our community because it completely overturned the very foundation of what many have spent a lifetime basing their preps around. Understandably, some people within the prepper community have received the new information as radical heresy and immediately took to the defense. When new information is presented to any community, this visceral reaction is to be expected. After all, it challenged their entire basis for their preps and in this case, proved that much of their foundational assumptions were based on bad information. Read more
In part one of our series on “Prepper Relocation,” I directly addressed a common false logic amongst preppers that led to bad conclusions regarding why one should relocate to Idaho. Specifically, I challenged the idea that a bunker was a viable long term survival strategy for a major catastrophe many prep for such as nuclear war. Simply establishing a second residence in a modern first world location like Santiago, Singapore, or New Zealand offer far better options for survival, both physically and economically, than hiding in a hole while a nuclear war is carried out above you. Today, I continue the slaughter of the sacred cows and challenge the merits of relocating to a site far from other people. As I previously discussed, relocation isn’t a subject to take lightly. It may be the single most important decision a prepper makes and therefore any plan should be heavily vetted before time and money is invested in executing it. Therefore, one must consider counter arguments to contemporary “expert” recommendations. By leveraging the information in this series, you will be far better prepared to develop a personalized answer to what truly is you “best prepper place to relocate.”
Contemporary prepper logic states that the farther your relocation site is from dense centers of population, the better. In fact, the magic number often touted is that you must be at least 300 miles from any major population center. However, is this really the case? This is very important because if 300 miles is accurate, it severely constrains your relocation options. If it is not a valid constraint, then suddenly you have many good options for relocation depending on the specific scenario you are prepping for. As such, let’s examine what that conclusion is premised upon. Breaking the theory down, you have two main hypotheses to vet. The first is that 300 miles provides a necessary and adequate buffer from an urban center. The second is that from said urban area a horde of starving refugees will emerge and overrun your redoubt.
Let me be the first to tell you neither hypothesis constituting this prepper theory, which to date has been held up as prepper law, is valid. Read more
Those of us that fought in Iraq are well aware of the potent militia force, known at the time as the Mahdi Army, controlled by the Iraqi Shiite Cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. Al-Sadr is a leading Shiite figure in Iraq and controls a militia with tens of thousands of fighters. He is also viewed as the leader of Iran’s proxy force inside of Iraq. Al-Sadr’s fighters at one point during the Iraq War became one of the most potent enemies facing America and inflicted a considerable amount of casualties on the US. Now al-Sadr is calling again for his followers to attack US forces in Iraq “fighting” ISIL. His call for war against the “American Occupiers” signals an ominous policy change in Iraq that will result in dead Americans and could trigger another full scale war with the US. (See: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-usa-idUSKCN0ZX0XL )
Al-Sadr’s instructions to attack US troops in Iraq will not go unanswered by his followers. Unlike other groups in Iraq, al-Sadr’s militia is motivated and well-armed, trained, and equipped. Read more
On a short note, I would like to point out a bit of hypocrisy and genius. Throughout both wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the US military has been shackled and hamstrung by the necessity to cause no collateral damage. The theory went that causing any “unnecessary” damage would alienate the population leading to the US losing the war. Well, at least myself and a few hundred thousand other American servicemen repeatedly tested this and found the theory to be false, but no one at the War College has mentioned it. In short, worrying about collateral damage only helps the enemy and increases friendly casualties. Oh, and did I mention we have lost every war that we employed a strategy of limited collateral damage? Read more
While the world has been distracted by the quickening of the dissent into global chaos, it was easy to miss a major even that occurred this week. Russia delivered the first batch of S-300 missiles to Iran. The missiles were the last component needed to make their previously delivered S-300 Air Defense System fully operational. This may signal Russia is moving forward with a more aggressive foreign policy to counter the US military’s growing list of provocative actions. Further, two countries did not miss this major geostrategic event. Israel and Saudi Arabia have been carefully watching and monitoring Iran for this event, which may prove to be a red line that at least Israel is unwilling to allow Iran to cross. If true, the clock is about to run out for Israel to take unilateral action or be at the mercy of warming US foreign policy to Iran. This could mean the outbreak of WWIII.
Make no mistake, the introduction of a fully operational S-300 Air Defense System in Iran alters the balance of power in the Middle East and Israel and Saudi Arabia know it. It is possible Israel has developed counter measures to the S-300, but the mere presence of the system alone would fundamentally limit Israel’s ability to attack Iran’s nuclear sites. Whether or not Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reached a mutually acceptable deal on the sale and delivery of the system to Iran is unknown, but my guess is Israel protested vigorously. Both the Netanyahu and Putin know that the air defense sale will significantly strengthen and embolden Iran, which is a sworn enemy of Israel. Further, Iran is seen as a threat by the rest of the Sunni dominated Gulf-Arab countries. Therefore, one must ask if this could trigger and war and if so, why Russia would finalize the sale and delivery.
I have previously warned and detailed why an operational S-300 Air Defense System is a major event that could trigger a war in the Middle East that goes global. (See: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2015/08/29/russian-transfer-of-s-300-air-defense-system-may-force-israeli-to-initiate-war-with-iran-before-winter/). Read more
What can we expect next from Turkey? Although, elements of the coup are still holding out in Ankara, the coup leadership has allegedly fled Turkey by helicopter to Greece and asked for asylum. All indications now are that Erdogan will remain in power and the coup failed. This is bad news for Turkey and the rest of the world.
The immediate aftermath is clear. Erdogan’s security forces are now busy arresting a massive number of military personnel that are believed to have supported the coup. Once complete, this will consolidate Erdogan’s power over the military, which is has already deeply purged. Further, the failure of the coup due to “popular support” will only increase his power, which will accelerate Turkey’s descent into a Islamic State. In short, the idea of a secular Turkey died last night with the failed coup. Read more
Right now Ankara is being heavily bombed by aircraft. The targets appear to be government installations, but many of the bombs are dropping near the US Embassy and residences of American Diplomatic personnel. Reports are that Americans are in extreme danger during this fighting and are pinned down in their residences. The US Embassy at this time seems paralyzed and to date has done nothing to help other than to tell their employees to shelter in place and keep their batteries charged on their cell phones. I am sure they feel better after that astute advice as bombs are hitting nearby buildings and tanks are having shootouts in the streets.
I guess the CIA’s crack team of “clairvoyants” http://theweek.com/articles/635515/cia-team-clairvoyants failed to catch this one in advance. Perhaps, instead of hiring academics from the same pool of geniuses that got us into this mess they hired some true outside talent, this wouldn’t have caught them by surprise. However, seeing how incompetent the entire Obama Administration has been, it should come as no surprise their entire foreign policy just got wiped out. I just hope the violence ends quickly before we are dealing with another Benghazi.
By Guiles Hendrik
July 15, 2016
Events are still unfolding and it is too early to make any final conclusions. However, it is clear that a military coup in Turkey is underway to overthrow Erdogan. As of now, all indications support the CIA was completely caught off guard and US was happy with the Islamic leaning Erdogan’s administration. As such, it is unlikely the CIA had anything to do with the coup. However, there are some indications that Russian intelligence helped back the military coup to oust Erdogan. Did Putin just get the last laugh…again?
Russia-Turkey relations have warmed remarkably in the last two weeks, but was this because Russia knew change was coming? It is also quite coincidental that US Secretary of State John Kerry just met with his Russian counterpart. Further, Russia correctly recognized Turkey was continuing to back Islamic extremists in Syria against Russian interests. Turkey is/was preparing a major military offensive to back Islamic extremists to retake Aleppo from Syrian forces in hopes of forcing Syrian President Assad out of power. This was a Russian redline. However, Russia did not want a direct conflict with Turkey and potentially all of NATO. Nonetheless, Russia could not and would not allow Turkey to directly intervene in a decisive way as I previously warned. As such, Russia needed a way to counter Erdogan’s policy to overthrow Assad and stop it without a bigger war. I should also mention Putin didn’t take the fact Turkey shot down a Russian jet lightly.
Short of a major war, a coup became an attractive option for derailing Washington’s Middle East Policy, defeating ISIL/ISIS, and countering Turkish actions targeting Syria and its President Assad. This appears to have culminated in a Russia covert operation to support the overthrow of Erdogan. Whether or not the coup proves successful, one will look back and see this is probably the last best effort to return Turkey to a secular state and defeat radical Islamists hijacking the country with a minimal amount of bloodshed. I find it fitting that Erdogan, a radical extremist that has backed Islamic jihadists found himself potentially one run out of office, not Assad.
I can’t understate the implications of this coup. If successful, ISIL/ISIS will get hammered by unimpeded Russia, Kurdish, and Syrian forces. Without Turkey’s covert support, ISIL/ISIS will face near certain military defeat in Syria. However, if the coup fails, expect all hell to break out across the region. Erdogan will return and his crackdown and purges will murder many people as radical Islamists solidify their grip on power. Any hopes for a secular Turkey will be dead. ISIL/ISIS will also get the full backing of Turkey in Syria and it is likely this will lead to plummeting relations with Russia and an outbreak of a major war. This is just the beginning of an unraveling of the entire region. Events will continue spiral out of control across the globe and the US. I will continue to update on this as events unfold.
July 15, 2016
It has been some time since I posted. I apologize as a lot has transpired over the last two weeks. To make up for lost time, I am going to give you the briefing points you need to know.
- South China Sea dispute heats up. For those of you worried about the potential for WWIII, we just got one step closer today when the UN committee set up to arbitrate the territorial dispute between China and the Philippines ruled in favor of the Philippines. Right or wrong, China utterly rejected the ruling and reaffirmed its self-perceived right to continue to economically and militarily develop the region as it sees fit. This sets the stage for China to walk away from the international community to protect its interests while many smaller Pacific nations like Vietnam, the Philippines, and Japan will feel emboldened to challenge China. My prediction is this ruling will only fuel hostilities in the region and set the region on a collision course for war.
- The spread of superbugs in the US that are resistant to all known antibiotic treatments continues. For a second time in less than a month, colistin resistant E. Coli has been identified in the US. The strain in question tested positive for the gene mcr-1, which makes it resistant to colistin, a last resort antibiotic. Per my previous articles (search antibiotic resistant on the LMS homepage), the spread of resistant bacteria is increasing in frequency and could easily hit a breakout stage in the near future. Once the mcr-1 resistant gene jumps to other resistant infections such as highly resistant Tuberculosis now being brought into the US by the thousands via illegal immigrants and refugees, it is only a matter of time before a true pandemic sweeps across the globe again. http://abcnews.go.com/Health/superbug-coli-found-time-us/story?id=40488140
- Obama is preparing to use wartime (Global War on Terror) martial law powers to ban and seize firearms for “national security.” Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson has been in secret talks with President Obama and other top officials to engineer “gun control” as a national security issue. The intent, like with nearly every other “Right” under the US Constitution is to suspend the Second Amendment or make it virtually meaningless by using unconstitutional wartime interpretations and rulings of executive powers. Their plan, like I have detailed repeatedly over the last decade (see: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2015/12/06/the-problem-isnt-islamic-terrorism-it-is-guns-according-to-emperor-obama/), is progressing on schedule. Obama and his Leftist goons are intentionally inciting division and violence and fully plan to use the predictable violent outcome to justify “federal government” action and emergency powers that restrict firearms for “national security.” After the events of Dallas and President Obama’s utterly despicable statements, it is clear that this administration is prepared to act as soon as this summer if more violence can be incited across the nation.
- Turkey continues to use “terrorist” attacks within its border as cover for supporting terrorists in Syria that vow to kill Americans. It is critical to understand Turkey has been proven to openly conduct false flag attacks against its own citizens to support President Erdogan’s radical agenda. Most recently, Turkey has suffered a number of major attacks blamed on both ISIL and Kurdish rebel groups, but that is questionable to say the least. True or not, Ankara wasted no time using the attacks to justify a Turkish military invasion of Syria. However, the Turkish military has done nothing to destroy radical Islamic groups operating in Syria. In fact, a closer analysis clearly shows that the Turkish military has instead been used to resupply radical Islamic groups to include the Al Nusra Front and ISIL/ISIS while smashing US backed Kurdish positions. Ankara is determined to undermine Syrian President Assad and specifically has used its military to push back Kurdish positions in key blocking positions so that it could resupply radical Islamic fighters on the verge of being routed from Aleppo by Syrian forces. If Syrian forces retake the lost ground and are again about to liberate Aleppo, expect to see another “terrorist” attack inside Turkey that will be immediately used to justify even greater military incursions into Syria to back radical Islamic extremist groups. As Syria and Russia continue to mop up ISIL positions and approach Raqqa, I fear this could lead to another direct engagement with Russian forces, which could quickly plunge the region into a major war.
- US continues to lose ground in Afghanistan. President Obama signed off on increased troop levels in Afghanistan to help combat the Taliban. In reality, the US completely ceded most of Afghanistan to the Taliban when Obama pulled the bulk of our forces out and our footprint in Afghanistan is getting more and more untenable. It has gotten so bad, military logisticians plan up front to lose over 20% of any supplies shipped into Afghanistan because of the Taliban. Further, Special Forces A-Teams are thinly spread across Afghanistan in a vain attempt to train and advise Afghan forces. This WILL FAIL because the entire concept of training and advising is at best of limited value and at worst, counterproductive, but our brilliant military strategists are too stupid and indoctrinated to recognize the facts. If a large contingent of forces are not recommitted under competent leadership to Afghanistan, the Taliban will likely begin to capture and hold major cities by years end and begin to directly threaten Kabul on a sustained basis as early as next summer.
- Number of US forces continues to quietly increase in Iraq as undeclared war continues. President Obama signed off on additional troop deployments to Iraq to support on-going efforts to recapture Ramadi, Fallujah, and Mosul from ISIL. Like I predicted (see articles: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/?s=strategy+in+iraq), none of Obama’s faux “strategy” would prove effective and he would again prove to be a hypocrite and put boots on the ground, which he promised not to do. To date, none of those cities have been completely liberated. The long overdue offensive on Mosul is again delayed and most likely also going to fail. At best, Iraqi forces will blast their way through the city, but will find it impossible to root out ISIL elements because the inhabitants of the city “ARE” ISIL. The Sunni population in Mosul is hostile to the government in Baghdad and isn’t going to change anytime soon unless everyone in the city is killed. It is important to note that even at the height of the Iraq War, the US military never fully pacified Mosul and was literally fighting in the city as President Obama unilaterally declared our surrender in Iraq. The bottom line is this deployment of troops is another vain endeavor that will fail because it is led by incompetents. No further understanding is necessary to KNOW this ends badly for the US and Iraqis.
By Guiles Hendrik
July 12, 2016
Lately, in political circles I have been posing a very important policy question. The question I ask is what does the world look like if North Korea is allowed to possess a viable nuclear weapons capability that truly threatens the United States. As of now, that world does not exist, but it soon will. My question is designed to force policy makers to address this impending crisis situation while it still can be contained. Disturbingly, it appears there is no real consensus on the issue and most seem to just hope that if they don’t acknowledge the problem, it will go away. Well, I have news. North Korea is only going to become a bigger problem for the world with disastrous consequences within five years. Policy makers must seriously tackle this issue now before a nuclear war becomes a reality.
US policy toward North Korea is exceedingly complex and is becoming more dangerous by the week. The fact the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un is as close to a true irrational actor as the contemporary world has witnessed only makes the situation more volatile. Any policy missteps could cause anything from headaches to nuclear war for our allies like South Korea and Japan. Further, China could quickly become involved in a major war against the US, which will be nuclear if it occurs. Even worse, North Korea is now known inside of intelligence circles as a proxy for Iranian nuclear development. It is no coincidence that since the Obama Administration freed up frozen Iranian assets that North Korea suddenly has had the funds to test multiple ballistic missiles and nuclear bombs. Let me be clear, with every nuclear advancement North Korea makes, it not only destabilizes the Korean Peninsula, but it further destabilizers the Middle East and makes a massive war involving both Saudi Arabia and Israel against Iran even more likely. If not averted now, the world will have one more reason very soon to expect a nuclear war that kills millions of people. Read more
Putin deals Obama another strategic policy defeat in Syria as Russian military outflanks Turkey and redeploys to Armenia in preparation for major regional war
This week Russia announced it would begin the withdrawal of some of its military forces from Syria catching many analysts by surprise. However, it appears the US military and intelligence community may have known in advance that this was going to occur because of a secretly brokered ceasefire deal between Moscow and the White House. On the surface, this appears to be a positive sign for all parties. Russia doesn’t get bogged down in Syria and it alleviates tensions in the region and the chances for a military miscalculation that could lead to a rapidly escalating war. Don’t be fooled. Russia just handed the US another major strategic defeat and most policy makers are too dumb to even realize it yet because they can’t think beyond the immediate.
As with most things in government, looks are deceiving and Putin is again laughing at the US as he readies for a potential war with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, Read more