I must admit, Trump’s trip to the Middle East and his planned speech were not on my list of highly recommended things for Trump to undertake. The trip was high risk with a low potential for any pay off. Nonetheless, even the mainstream media networks were grudgingly admitting that he appears to have pulled it off. This may indeed be true, but this is not reason to celebrate. Just because the propagandists and the poorly informed think President Trump’s unapologetic speech was a success, you may want to ask the other half of the Muslim world. In fact, every Shia Muslim listening to Trump’s speech heard his message loud and clear. The United States has joined forces with Sunni Arabs in a holy war against Shia Islam. Congratulations President Trump, you just signed the US up for an Islamic holy war and it will cost our country dearly. Read more
Archive for Iraq
Too many Americans are completely detached from the horrors of war as the US has enjoyed an unprecedented period of peace within its continental borders. The ability to not know war has been a precious luxury enjoyed for a generation in the US, but is now taken completely for granted. For most, war is just another form of entertainment like sports games and movies. In fact, to the average person, there is literally no distinction between the Hollywood war movies and reality. Why would there be when roughly only four tenths of a percent of the US population is serving in the military and far less have actually fought its wars? This makes it highly likely most Americans don’t even know a vet. There are many problems with this disassociation. However, the most detrimental has been that our nation has become so insulated from war they feel that we can kill with impunity around the globe. Symptomatic of this condition is the apathy Americans demonstrate to our military intervention overseas. We now allow our nation to blindly blunder into global conflict without even a debate. Americans have forgotten the actual human costs and the horrors of what a war is like if it comes to our own shores. This always ends badly and if a war with North Korea begins, we may very soon learn what it is like to see war again on American soil.
Currently, the Trump Administration has overtly entered or continued US involvement in wars in Yemen, Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq without any debate, votes, or justification. Literally, President Trump has picked a new fight every month he has been in office. My fear is that President Trump is now setting the stage for an unavoidable conflict with North Korea making him five for five. Let me be clear, I do not believe President Trump has many options left with North Korea. However, I fear that he will not chose the best courses of action and it will cost the US an incredibly high price. I don’t say this lightly. Conflicts in Syria and Iraq have the potential to spread and end in a disaster for the US in large part because they will financially bankrupt our nation and lead to the wholesale slaughter of millions of innocent people. However, the US has not fought a war since WWII where the adversary had the ability to attack the US mainland. Am I suggesting North Korea has the ability to physically invade the US and pelt of with missiles? No. In fact, North Korea does not have that ability at all. However, North Korea has the ability to asymmetrically attack the US with some of the most horrendous weapons known to man and you need to be prepared.
War with North Korea is looking more and more inevitable. Neither side is willing to back down. If there is to be war, even the best case is still horrible. The best case would be a surprise US nuclear strike against the North Korean regime and its military installations ending the war quickly and with minimal US and allied casualties. A far uglier picture emerges if the Trump Administration opted for, even if just initially, a conventional option. Using conventional weapons would allow North Korea time to deploy not just its conventional weapons, but its chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons. This would almost guarantee Seoul would be reduced to rubble and tens of thousands of American and South Korean casualties would be incurred within the first 24-48 hours of the conflict. If the US and South Korean troops had to conventionally fight the entire war, we would be looking at close to a million casualties and our nation utterly bankrupted by the conflict. Further, this is assuming China doesn’t enter the war, which would truly make it a WWIII endgame scenario and this isn’t at all unlikely.
However, irrespective of the financial cost and the massive loss of life associated with a war in North Korea, Americans, have in their comforts, become totally ignorant of the fact that North Korea has planned for and put in place numerous asymmetric means to attack the US. To be blunt, North Korea is prepared to attack the US homeland in horrific ways should war break out. In particular, over the course of time, North Korea is rumored to have smuggled via diplomatic pouches numerous biological and chemical weapons into the US through its United Nations mission in New York. Disturbingly, once the technology to produce these types of weapons is achieved, and North Korea has achieved it, these weapons are relatively easy to smuggle and very difficult to track. Adding to the problem is that a very small amount of these weapons can inflict large number of casualties. If true, literally every city in the US could be simultaneously attacked with a full range of biological and chemical weapons. In particular, North Korea is already believed to have smuggled VX nerve agent into a foreign country and used it to assassinate a political rival. In larger quantities, VX could be dispersed over crowded areas to inflict large numbers of casualties and to create massive panic in cities like New York and Washington, DC. If not bad enough, a far scarier threat exists. North Korea is believed to have been mass producing anthrax and has likely mass produced other biological weapons such as smallpox, francisella tularensis, and hemorrhagic fever virus. Any one of these agents could be released in densely populated areas and cause a massive number of deaths. Finally, North Korea may have the ability to detonate a space based nuclear weapon over the US releasing an EMP capable of blacking out a large portion of the North American grid. I consider this scenario less likely due to North Korea’s technological challenges and US countermeasures; however, if China becomes involved, the probability of this scenario is 100%. Should that event occur, the US will effectively be destroyed. Before the grid could be rebuilt, some congressional studies estimate that two-thirds of the US population or approximately 200,000,000 people would die. Not even our grandchildren will live to see the US recover from this type of attack. Let that sink in for a moment. The war that President Trump is about to start has the potential to destroy the US.
If what I have just written didn’t scare the hell out of you, you are completely disassociated with reality and need professional help. I am not trying to create panic and I do not subscribe to fear mongering. Unfortunately, reality isn’t always pretty and as much as we would like to deny the uncomfortable, it is critical we recognize threats and dangers. North Korea is a very big threat and far more dangerous than Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan combined. Remember, President Bush believed Afghanistan was going to be a quick war against some illiterate savages, but over a decade and a half later, we are still mired in his war we have already strategically lost. Iraq proved to be another example of Washington’s hubris and overly optimistic military predictions. In fact, the history of warfare demonstrates that in nearly every case, wars prove to be much longer, tougher, and more costly than predicted. Why would anyone think North Korea will be a war any less costly when all indicators say the exact opposite? I am curious because as I type, no fewer than three American aircraft carrier battle groups are steaming towards the Korean Peninsula prepared for a military showdown and nearly no one aside from Ron Paul is urging restraint. I think the answer is that Americans are living in ignorance and have no concept of the hell this war will most likely bring to our lives. Again, war with North Korea may be unavoidable, but we need to have a national discussion and the homeland must be prepared for the consequences.
As with all articles, I don’t just point out the problems. I offer solutions. In this case, the truth is you and I aren’t going to change a damn thing. All we can control is our actions and to a limited degree help those around us. Ideally, now may be a good time to literally leave the US for an extended vacation that lasts until either the war is over or North Korea backs down. I don’t make this recommendation lightly. However, for those that can’t leave or opt to stay, you need to prep your chem/bio response kits. Everyone in your group now should be at minimum carrying a protective mask with new filter in day bags. If you have antidote kits for nerve agents and decon kits for blister agents, those should also be packed and make sure you know how to use them. You should also have antibiotics ready for a biological attack involving a bacterial agent like anthrax. However, if the bio weapon is viral, we are looking at an untreatable megadeath situation and the only real option is to completely isolate your group from all other people until the virus has burned itself out. Wherever you plan to stay, make sure you have an area prepped with provisions and the ability to seal it from the outside with plastic and duct tape at minimum. You also should have enough chem/bio suits prepared for everyone in your group to at least bug out from the hot zone. If you are driving to work, you should have at least one complete suit in your vehicle and a contingency link up plan for everyone else in your group. Listen to me; you need to do this immediately. A war with North Korea is hopefully avoidable, but literally could be launched at any moment in the coming days to weeks.
As for preparations beyond immediate survival, you need to get as much cash on hand as you can withdraw from the banks. If you have the ability to move money to overseas bank accounts, do it now. If you are invested in stocks, you should consider taking profits now and holding them until this crisis passes. Once the market crashes, feel free to re-enter the market and buy up the cheap stocks. This will lead to a market shock and crash if a war breaks out. However, some stocks will likely sky rocket in value. I am personally seeking out companies that specialize in radiological decontamination and chem/bio defenses to invest in. Call it Machiavellian, but a crisis always presents opportunities for those with the foresight to position themselves to seize it. Make sure that person is you. In the interim, please take some basic precautions. I pray for the best, but will be preparing for the worst. We will be very blessed indeed if we can get through this crisis with the homeland unscathed.
By Guiles Hendrik
April 17, 2017
Here is a free piece of political advice. When your enemies begin condoning your actions, you should be very worried. President Trump has for the first time enjoyed what he believes to be the “support” and approval of the Establishment after launching a cruise missile attack against a Syrian air base. However, he would be a fool to think they are cheering on his actions because they support his policy. In fact, the Establishment is really laughing as they lead him by his ego down the path to destruction in Syria. As I have repeatedly warned, the Syrian Civil War is a trap and will not just take down the Trump Administration, but will bring down the United States if it becomes entangled in the conflict. Read more
I hate to continually bring you doom and gloom, but in short, the probability that nuclear weapons will be used within the next four years has spiked to its highest levels since the Cuban Missile Crisis. If you haven’t reviewed your contingency plans you should. However, this article is not meant to provide you with detailed bug out plans…search our site for those…it is meant to highlight the growing nuclear risks.
Let’s start with the good news if there is such a thing. Out of the most likely scenarios, only two involve nuclear weapons being used against the continental United States. These are worst case scenarios and involve a nuclear exchange with Russia and or China. The bad news is that the potential for nuclear war with both powers has sharply risen. With respect to Russia, if the US continues to press for regime change in Syria and uses military force, it will force a military confrontation with Russia that could spiral out of control and involve nuclear weapons. Respective of China, it is assessed as unlikely, but possible China would join forces with Russia and Iran against the US if a direct military confrontation breaks out in Syria. However, far more likely is the probability China joins forces with North Korea if a war breaks out and that leads to a nuclear exchange.
Note that North Korea is not listed. North Korea currently does not possess a viable capability to strike the United States. They are rumored to have the ability to detonate a nuclear weapon in space to cause an EMP, but the likelihood of them successfully carrying out this type of attack is very low due to their technical problems and the ability of the US to counter any attack. However, North Korea certainly has the ability to detonate a nuclear weapon on the Korean Peninsula and the chances of this are dramatically increasing. In fact, many analysts believe China no longer has the ability to reign in North Korea and the opportunity to avert a war is now close to zero. If true, there will be a war with North Korea within the next 24 months. Also one must consider North Korea has a full range of chemical and biological weapons that they most likely would use in the event of war prompting a nuclear response by the US. Adding to the danger is the fact any conventional land war in Korea could quickly cause over a million casualties. The costs would be too high for the US to tolerate and the war would quickly go nuclear, if not from the onset, contrary to what many people in the US may believe. As such, in the event of war with North Korea, it will be a nuclear war. If China remains out of the conflict, we will be relatively safe in the US. However, if China becomes involved, we will see many people die both abroad and domestically.
While everyone is distracted with their own problems, tensions are once again rising between Pakistan and India. Both countries have nuclear weapons and events could flare into open conflict again and lead to the use of nuclear weapons. However, the probability of this is low over the next four years.
Finally, Israel must be assessed. Israel will not tolerate Iran developing a nuclear weapons capability. Should Israel become convinced that Iran has continued with its weapons development, it will use tactical nuclear weapons to neutralize the program. Fortunately, Israel and the US have once again moved closer and will likely coordinate on any war with Iran allowing the US time to de-escalate the situation or at least get out of the way before Israel launches an attack. This is a wild card scenario because the probability is highly dependent upon other events across the world. Should the US press with regime change in Syria, Iran will most likely use its 122,000 Shia militiamen in Iraq to overrun the Green Zone and attack US forces in Iraq and then Syria. This could quickly force the US out of the Middle East leaving Israel to fend for itself increasing the probability of a war with Iran. However, should the US destroy North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, it will greatly decrease the odds of war with Iran. Most don’t realize this hidden fact, but Iran has off-shored its nuclear program to North Korea where it has been conducting its weapons development unabated. Should North Korea be allowed to continue its program, Iran by default will gain a nuclear weapons capability. Should North Korea be stopped, Iran will also be severely set back.
In conclusion, for the first time in decades, the probabilities for various scenarios where nuclear weapons are used are increasing dramatically across the board. It is alarming and experts are taking note. In fact, the odds are now so high, it is safe to assess that a nuclear device will most likely be used within the next four years. If this conclusion doesn’t get your attention, there is probably nothing that can be said to wake you from your brain dead zombielike existence. Now is the time to get your Plan B ready because events could spiral quickly out of control in the very near future.
By Guiles Hendrik
April 10, 2017
Let me get right to the point. President Trump is a complete moron if he honestly believes his military advisors are setting him up for success. I want President Trump to succeed, but until he gets better advisors, he will self-destruct. By ordering a surge of US military forces into Syria without any long term strategy or plan, he is effectively forcing America into the middle of an ugly civil war that will cost our nation dearly. Further, by directly entering the Syrian Civil War, President Trump has committed our nation to yet another unnecessary and unconstitutional war without making the case to the American people or obtaining congressional approval. This won’t just be a massive military mistake; it will be a political disaster. President Trump has no idea that as the US gets sucked further and further into this war, the failure of “his” war will arm his political enemies with everything they need to ultimately cripple his administration. By listening to the generals, President Trump has, within a month of taking office, committed the US to an even more disastrous war than his predecessors, which he will lose, and quite possibly destroy his administration. Brilliant! Read more
Again, the news cycle is moving so quickly, no one is able to completely keep up. However, with all of the focus on executive orders on immigration some major events are slipping by unnoticed. The take away is that the Middle East is again moving rapidly toward all-out war. The immigration issue is serious and important, but the war that could potential break out in the Middle East could be staggering. Here are the most recent highlights with comment:
Yemen in particular has become a flashpoint. Starting from the top, a unit from SEAL Team Six got mauled badly and lost an operator while conducting a direct action raid on a suspected al-Qaeda facility. Further, their MV-22 Osprey crashed and was destroyed on the ground. The base model of a single Osprey costs over $73,000,000 dollars and this was a special operations variant, which comes in closer to one hundred million dollars. This was in exchange for killing 14 alleged terrorists of at best, medium value, and collecting some information to better identify their network. This shows that President Trump is less risk averse when it comes to launching our soldiers into combat. If this becomes a trend, it means much more kinetic warfare and far greater US casualties. Previous to this raid, attacks in Yemen were almost exclusively being carried out by airstrikes.
If not bad enough, a Saudi Arabian Frigate, which is a warship, was attacked according to the US government, by a small boat laden with explosives. However, video evidence supports the assessment that believes the ship was hit by a missile supplied by Iran. Anti-ship missiles have been fired at US Warships in the same area over the last six months. Further, one man can be heard speaking in an Iranian accent chanting death to America. If it was indeed a missile that hit the boat, the fact is being downplayed and covered up to prevent outrage in Saudi Arabia that would demand revenge and initiate a war with Iran. This is not unprecedented in the region. An advanced ship from the UAE was also recently hit by an Iranian supplied anti-ship missile launched from Yemen and damaged so badly it had to be decommissioned. However, the UAE never officially acknowledge the attack.
Irrespective of how the attack occurred, the blast appears to have struck the upper portion of the stern of the Saudi ship inflicting serious damage and killing at least two Saudi sailors. This is a major act of war and is believed to have been launched by the Houthi rebels in Yemen. One may say this is the cost of starting an unnecessary war and invading Yemen. I would agree that it was stupid for Saudi Arabia to intervene militarily in Yemen. However, the Saudis tonight are not discussing whether or not their war was smart. What they are discussing his how to retaliate. If it in fact was an attack launched by the Houthis, the missile was undoubtedly supplied by Iran. Everyone knows this, but the question is if the Kingdom will hold the Houthis and/or the Iranians responsible. I assess the possibility of Saudi Arabia expanding their war in Yemen as high. I also see a medium likelihood of Saudi Arabia expanding it to Iran to include indicting any Iranian flagged ship near Yemen. This will undoubtedly provoke another cycle of violence. Worst case is Saudi Arabia decides to retaliate directly against Iran, but I assess this as unlikely. The fact that Saudi Arabia has not said anything about the ban in immigration from seven predominately Muslim countries factors into this situation. It is highly likely the Saudis will try to lean heavily on the US to take out Iran for them, which brings me to my next point.
Iran test launched a ballistic missile this week in violation of pretty much everything the international community has told Iran it could not do. Iran became a serial violator of any international dictates since the Obama Administration was in office. Their transgressions included seizing US Navy vessels and their crews in international waters, providing weapons to attack and kill Americans, holding Americans hostage, developing long range missile technology, and feigning attacks on our warships. Following precedent, Iran conducted a launch of another ballistic missile and has yet to be “reprimanded” by the new Administration. Perhaps, Iran thinks it has gotten away with it and President Trump will be a push over. If so, I believe they have badly miscalculated the new American President. President Trump in a short amount of time will respond. How, is the only question. Trumps retaliatory options range from lodging a diplomatic protest and re-invoking sanctions to launching a nuclear strike.
Yes, I do think President Trump is serious enough he may indeed use nuclear weapons during his time in office to prevent a bloody and costly deployment of ground troops against a country like North Korea or Iran. Nonetheless, I assess the Administration will come out with a clear warning to Iran, but will stop short of a military strike. Iran will get one warning, but no more. However, there is a perfect coalescing of Saudi and US interests with regards to annihilating Iran. Iran should take this seriously because Saudi Arabia may be on the phone right now with Washington discussing military options for the attack on their ship. If Trump greenlights retaliation, we could have a major outbreak of war in days. However, I reiterate, I think right now we will have some clear red lines drawn and preparations made, but the war won’t begin just yet.
In summary, things are getting hotter in the Middle East. All that is needed is a slight nudge and the entire region could erupt. I do not see anything getting calmer anytime soon. In fact, I think we are about to see a major escalation of war in the Middle East.
By Guiles Hendrik
January 30, 2017
The current “deal” with Iran over its nuclear program is better defined as policy capitulation. To be viable, the deal must have teeth and achieve the endstate desired by the United States. The current “deal” with Iran is neither and ultimately does not stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Therefore, a renegotiation of the treaty is necessary to avoid war. However, war may still be the inevitable result of either doing nothing or trying to force a renegotiation the Iranians are unwilling to engage in. If Iran continues to get closer to a nuclear weapon, there will be a major war irrespective of whether or not the US wants it. Further, if Iran feels cornered, it may simply refuse to renegotiate anything and regionally retaliate against US pressure leading to a military engagement. Iran isn’t a paper tiger and has the ability cause the US significant problems if we do drive a hard bargain. Donald Trump will need to understand this in finite detail or the US will pay in blood and treasure abroad and at home. Read more
Trump Wins in Historic Anti-Establishment Victory, but Temper Your Jubilation: The Good, Bad, and Ugly of What’s to Come
Last night, Donald Trump won a historic victory by all accounts. America’s silent, dispossessed majority has spoken and it should serve as a warning to anyone discounting the anger of the CITIZENS the government has failed to serve. His victory was more about defeating Hillary and the overwhelming corruption and arrogance of the elites she represents than a referendum on his policies. With their support, Trump took on what amounts to the entire establishment and stunned the elites. The magnitude of this victory can’t be understated and we should have immense respect for what he has accomplished. The “Donald” went head-to-head with the media complex, fended off judicial attacks, and even successfully overcame his own party sabotaging him all while essentially saying exactly what the pundits said he couldn’t say…the truth. Donald Trump lived up to “his” own hype and proved he does have what it takes to outsmart even the dirtiest of career political elites. However, once the celebrations are over, the real work begins. Trump will have one of the most challenging jobs as President of anyone in our time and it is far from certain he will turn out to be what the people that voted for him believe he will be. Trump won by capturing populist anger, but when it comes to the nuts and bolts of healthy policies, it isn’t all sunshine and rainbows if you now analyze what the American voter just elected. Here is a list of what we can look forward to, be worried about, and outright fear from President Trump.
The good: Read more
The political timing of the assault on Mosul was no coincidence. It was timed to correspond with the election and to be used as a diversion if necessary. Ready to support their political masters, the complicit government propaganda outlets, otherwise known as the American Media Establishment, were right there to announce how everything was going well and success against ISIL was right around the corner. Of course the media failed to investigate the valid claims that the US actually let ISIL evacuate the city before the assault. This action allowed murderous terrorists to escape to kill more innocent people so that the US can claim it effectively “liberated” Mosul. If the media was being honest, it would have long ago made it blatantly clear the US has no intention of defeating ISIL anytime soon and the Mosul operation is a sideshow. Further, in spite of many fighters being allowed to escape, the Mosul operation still has not been going as planned. The battle began to bog down almost as soon as it began, which was easily predictable. Cutting through all of the cross talk and false information is tough and has left most people at a complete loss for what is going on. To help, here is a quick summary of what happens next with respect to ISIL.
For starters, the bulk of ISIL fighters have escaped to fight another day. This means many thousands more people will unnecessarily die in the Middle East, Europe, and the US. The US, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and even Israel made sure this was the case because they still are desperately trying to salvage their diabolical scheme to overthrow Syrian President Assad. They are not in the smallest way moved by the fact their actions have led to the death and displacement of millions. Their hope is the bulk of these fighters will race to Aleppo to relieve their jihadist allies. Some fighters undoubtedly will move quickly to try and reinforce Aleppo. However, ISIL is out of the box and may have other plans. Read more
The following summary of recent world events is decidedly negative. This is not due to overt pessimism as much as the facts are just plain bad. In fact, I didn’t even include events like the effects of Hurricane Mathew, the attack on our warship off the coast of Yemen, and the assassination of more police around the US. The world is not getting any safer and indicators are all pointing to things worsening as we move into late fall and winter. The following are major events you should be taking note of with short comments.
- Situation in Syria: Syrian government forces backed by Iran and Russia continue to pound Aleppo and are nearing a strategic breakthrough. All actors in Syria recognize that if Assad is able to recapture Aleppo from the Islamic extremists it will be the beginning of the end for Washington’s terrorist proxies in Syria. As such, there is panic from Doha to Washington. The terrorist coalition knows that it is now or never for major intervention, which may force the White House to order direct strikes against the Syrian regime, which undoubtedly will be countered by Russian retaliation. This creates the potential for a rapid outbreak of a major regional war that could go global. We have effectively arrived at the point I have repeatedly forecasted would occur in Syria where either Moscow or Washington accepts a massive strategic policy defeat or there is a major war…perhaps both. This is inescapable at this point. The best case scenario is if the US backs out by aligning with Russia to defeat ISIL and negotiate a peace deal that leaves the regime in place for now. This is highly unlikely and if Hillary Clinton is elected, all but impossible.
- I am forecasting that the US will continue to spread false anti-Assad and anti-Russian propaganda to drum up war sentiment in the US to prepare the public for the announcement airstrikes against Syrian military positions. If the neo-cons within the establishment get their way the air strikes will happen, but there will be an immediate cost to US forces. Russia will defend its positions on the ground and engage any US forces that directly threaten Russian lives and interests. In this event, it is possible we will witness the first combat losses of US Fifth Generation Fighters, which Washington is rightfully terrified will occur. The loss of these jets will show everyone how much superiority the US has lost against countries like China under Obama. This will jeopardize the multi-billion dollar acquisition program that has been riddled with corruption, failures, and delays. As such, it is far more likely Washington will lead with cruise missile and drone strikes that are easier to deny and hide if they fail to achieve their objectives, but are also much less likely to achieve decisive results.
Those of us that fought in Iraq are well aware of the potent militia force, known at the time as the Mahdi Army, controlled by the Iraqi Shiite Cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. Al-Sadr is a leading Shiite figure in Iraq and controls a militia with tens of thousands of fighters. He is also viewed as the leader of Iran’s proxy force inside of Iraq. Al-Sadr’s fighters at one point during the Iraq War became one of the most potent enemies facing America and inflicted a considerable amount of casualties on the US. Now al-Sadr is calling again for his followers to attack US forces in Iraq “fighting” ISIL. His call for war against the “American Occupiers” signals an ominous policy change in Iraq that will result in dead Americans and could trigger another full scale war with the US. (See: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-usa-idUSKCN0ZX0XL )
Al-Sadr’s instructions to attack US troops in Iraq will not go unanswered by his followers. Unlike other groups in Iraq, al-Sadr’s militia is motivated and well-armed, trained, and equipped. Read more