Archive for Israel

Trump Declares Holy War during Speech in Saudi Arabia

I must admit, Trump’s trip to the Middle East and his planned speech were not on my list of highly recommended things for Trump to undertake.  The trip was high risk with a low potential for any pay off.  Nonetheless, even the mainstream media networks were grudgingly admitting that he appears to have pulled it off.  This may indeed be true, but this is not reason to celebrate.  Just because the propagandists and the poorly informed think President Trump’s unapologetic speech was a success, you may want to ask the other half of the Muslim world.  In fact, every Shia Muslim listening to Trump’s speech heard his message loud and clear.  The United States has joined forces with Sunni Arabs in a holy war against Shia Islam.  Congratulations President Trump, you just signed the US up for an Islamic holy war and it will cost our country dearly.

In case you missed it, President Trump proudly declared to a room filled with brutal and despotic leaders from most of the Sunni-Muslim countries in the region that Iran, Yemen, and Syria were the new Axis of Evil.  The utter hypocrisy of anyone in that room calling another country “more evil” or “the real supporter of terrorism” should have been profound and given good people pause.  However, President Trump went further declaring his support for these countries cemented by a $110 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia, which means ISIS is about to get the best weapons US tax dollars can buy to kill Americans.  Yes, it is considered a “sale,” but let’s be real, the money is a political buy-off and we know that these weapons are going to make their way to unsavory groups hell bent on killing infidels, which specifically include Shia Muslims.  All said, in the Middle East, the message was clear.  The US is now at war with the over 200 million Muslims that practice Shia Islam.  I would have rather we stayed out of it completely,  but pitting America smack in the middle of two factions that have literally been fighting each other since the 7th Century A.D. must have seemed like a smart move to the “Swamp.”  Either way, per my previous article discussing how Trump’s generals running amuck have moved the US closer to an all-out war with Syria, Russia, and Iran, you can be certain now that Iran will be preparing to actively engage US interests and forces based throughout the Middle East.

So for now, enjoy the strong man bravado and the “good will” amongst our despotic allies across the Middle East and North Africa.  General, I mean President Trump, is now at the helm and going to create a grand bargain that will suddenly convince peoples that have been killing each other for millennia to set aside differences.  Mark my words; it won’t be long until we realize the folly of injecting our nation in what is in every way a foreign problem and foreign war.  President Trump’s over generalizations of the deep rooted problems of the region and toward America will only lead to our nation being overextended and bankrupted by a never ending series of bloody and indecisive conflicts.  Our Founding Fathers knew this danger all too well and profusely warned against such foreign expeditions.  Perhaps, President Trump should skip a few holes of golf and spend an hour less in the mirror and use that time to read a history book.  He might learn something.  You heard it here first.

By Guiles Hendrik

May 22, 2017

Probability for the use of nuclear weapons during the next four years nears 80%

I hate to continually bring you doom and gloom, but in short, the probability that nuclear weapons will be used within the next four years has spiked to its highest levels since the Cuban Missile Crisis.  If you haven’t reviewed your contingency plans you should.  However, this article is not meant to provide you with detailed bug out plans…search our site for those…it is meant to highlight the growing nuclear risks.

Let’s start with the good news if there is such a thing.  Out of the most likely scenarios, only two involve nuclear weapons being used against the continental United States.  These are worst case scenarios and involve a nuclear exchange with Russia and or China.  The bad news is that the potential for nuclear war with both powers has sharply risen.  With respect to Russia, if the US continues to press for regime change in Syria and uses military force, it will force a military confrontation with Russia that could spiral out of control and involve nuclear weapons.  Respective of China, it is assessed as unlikely, but possible China would join forces with Russia and Iran against the US if a direct military confrontation breaks out in Syria.  However, far more likely is the probability China joins forces with North Korea if a war breaks out and that leads to a nuclear exchange.

Note that North Korea is not listed.  North Korea currently does not possess a viable capability to strike the United States.  They are rumored to have the ability to detonate a nuclear weapon in space to cause an EMP, but the likelihood of them successfully carrying out this type of attack is very low due to their technical problems and the ability of the US to counter any attack.  However, North Korea certainly has the ability to detonate a nuclear weapon on the Korean Peninsula and the chances of this are dramatically increasing.  In fact, many analysts believe China no longer has the ability to reign in North Korea and the opportunity to avert a war is now close to zero.  If true, there will be a war with North Korea within the next 24 months.  Also one must consider North Korea has a full range of chemical and biological weapons that they most likely would use in the event of war prompting a nuclear response by the US.  Adding to the danger is the fact any conventional land war in Korea could quickly cause over a million casualties.  The costs would be too high for the US to tolerate and the war would quickly go nuclear, if not from the onset, contrary to what many people in the US may believe.  As such, in the event of war with North Korea, it will be a nuclear war.  If China remains out of the conflict, we will be relatively safe in the US.  However, if China becomes involved, we will see many people die both abroad and domestically.

While everyone is distracted with their own problems, tensions are once again rising between Pakistan and India.  Both countries have nuclear weapons and events could flare into open conflict again and lead to the use of nuclear weapons.  However, the probability of this is low over the next four years.

Finally, Israel must be assessed.  Israel will not tolerate Iran developing a nuclear weapons capability.  Should Israel become convinced that Iran has continued with its weapons development, it will use tactical nuclear weapons to neutralize the program.  Fortunately, Israel and the US have once again moved closer and will likely coordinate on any war with Iran allowing the US time to de-escalate the situation or at least get out of the way before Israel launches an attack.  This is a wild card scenario because the probability is highly dependent upon other events across the world.  Should the US press with regime change in Syria, Iran will most likely use its 122,000 Shia militiamen in Iraq to overrun the Green Zone and attack US forces in Iraq and then Syria.  This could quickly force the US out of the Middle East leaving Israel to fend for itself increasing the probability of a war with Iran.  However, should the US destroy North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, it will greatly decrease the odds of war with Iran.  Most don’t realize this hidden fact, but Iran has off-shored its nuclear program to North Korea where it has been conducting its weapons development unabated.  Should North Korea be allowed to continue its program, Iran by default will gain a nuclear weapons capability.  Should North Korea be stopped, Iran will also be severely set back.

In conclusion, for the first time in decades, the probabilities for various scenarios where nuclear weapons are used are increasing dramatically across the board.  It is alarming and experts are taking note.  In fact, the odds are now so high, it is safe to assess that a nuclear device will most likely be used within the next four years.  If this conclusion doesn’t get your attention, there is probably nothing that can be said to wake you from your brain dead zombielike existence.  Now is the time to get your Plan B ready because events could spiral quickly out of control in the very near future.

By Guiles Hendrik

April 10, 2017

Exposing the Fake News Spin: Fox News misses “small fact” and fails to mention group trying to influence Trump’s Iran policy is a long time radical Islamic-Marxist terrorist organization

Today, I read a Fox News article entitled, “Iranian dissidents seeking meeting with Trump.”  See: (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/12/23/iranian-dissidents-seeking-meeting-with-trump.html).  According to the article, Iranian dissidents have penned a letter to Trump urging him to consider renegotiating the so-called, Iran Nuclear Deal.  This alone was not a problem.  The problem was when the article brings up the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) as one of the dissident groups.  Allegedly, the NCRI was not involved with the letter, which I find to be a dubious claim, but according to Fox News, the NCRI is being pushed as a legitimate dissident group and stated, “The NCRI is widely seen as the most organized Iranian opposition group – and also is welcoming engagement with Trump.”   Of course, there is just one small problem with this false narrative.  The NCRI is not just some innocent dissident group oppressed by Iran.  The NCRI is the polished up and renamed political organization of the same terrorist group formerly known as the PMOI and MEK.  As mentioned in my previous article, Trump does not know the behind the scenes intelligence driving many foreign policy decisions and how it has been manipulated by special interests.  As a result, he is dangerously at risk of falling victim to lies of “false news,” being misled, and making a disastrous decision with regards to Iran and the Middle East.  Read more

The Price You Will Pay for Trump Dumping the Iran Nuclear Deal

Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades Support Fight Against IS in Iraq.  Source: http://thefederalist-gary.blogspot.com/2015/05/hezbollah-brigades-lead-iraqi.html

Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades Support Fight Against IS in Iraq. Source: http://thefederalist-gary.blogspot.com/2015/05/hezbollah-brigades-lead-iraqi.html

The current “deal” with Iran over its nuclear program is better defined as policy capitulation.  To be viable, the deal must have teeth and achieve the endstate desired by the United States.  The current “deal” with Iran is neither and ultimately does not stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.  Therefore, a renegotiation of the treaty is necessary to avoid war.  However, war may still be the inevitable result of either doing nothing or trying to force a renegotiation the Iranians are unwilling to engage in.  If Iran continues to get closer to a nuclear weapon, there will be a major war irrespective of whether or not the US wants it.  Further, if Iran feels cornered, it may simply refuse to renegotiate anything and regionally retaliate against US pressure leading to a military engagement.  Iran isn’t a paper tiger and has the ability cause the US significant problems if we do drive a hard bargain.  Donald Trump will need to understand this in finite detail or the US will pay in blood and treasure abroad and at home. Read more

ISIL’s Next Move after Mosul

The political timing of the assault on Mosul was no coincidence.  It was timed to correspond with the election and to be used as a diversion if necessary.  Ready to support their political masters, the complicit government propaganda outlets, otherwise known as the American Media Establishment, were right there to announce how everything was going well and success against ISIL was right around the corner.  Of course the media failed to investigate the valid claims that the US actually let ISIL evacuate the city before the assault.  This action allowed murderous terrorists to escape to kill more innocent people so that the US can claim it effectively “liberated” Mosul.  If the media was being honest, it would have long ago made it blatantly clear the US has no intention of defeating ISIL anytime soon and the Mosul operation is a sideshow.  Further, in spite of many fighters being allowed to escape, the Mosul operation still has not been going as planned.  The battle began to bog down almost as soon as it began, which was easily predictable.  Cutting through all of the cross talk and false information is tough and has left most people at a complete loss for what is going on.  To help, here is a quick summary of what happens next with respect to ISIL.

For starters, the bulk of ISIL fighters have escaped to fight another day.  This means many thousands more people will unnecessarily die in the Middle East, Europe, and the US.  The US, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and even Israel made sure this was the case because they still are desperately trying to salvage their diabolical scheme to overthrow Syrian President Assad.  They are not in the smallest way moved by the fact their actions have led to the death and displacement of millions.  Their hope is the bulk of these fighters will race to Aleppo to relieve their jihadist allies.  Some fighters undoubtedly will move quickly to try and reinforce Aleppo.  However, ISIL is out of the box and may have other plans. Read more

Prepper Update of World Events for Week of October 10, 2016

The following summary of recent world events is decidedly negative.  This is not due to overt pessimism as much as the facts are just plain bad.  In fact, I didn’t even include events like the effects of Hurricane Mathew, the attack on our warship off the coast of Yemen, and the assassination of more police around the US.  The world is not getting any safer and indicators are all pointing to things worsening as we move into late fall and winter.  The following are major events you should be taking note of with short comments.

  • Situation in Syria: Syrian government forces backed by Iran and Russia continue to pound Aleppo and are nearing a strategic breakthrough.  All actors in Syria recognize that if Assad is able to recapture Aleppo from the Islamic extremists it will be the beginning of the end for Washington’s terrorist proxies in Syria.  As such, there is panic from Doha to Washington.  The terrorist coalition knows that it is now or never for major intervention, which may force the White House to order direct strikes against the Syrian regime, which undoubtedly will be countered by Russian retaliation.  This creates the potential for a rapid outbreak of a major regional war that could go global.  We have effectively arrived at the point I have repeatedly forecasted would occur in Syria where either Moscow or Washington accepts a massive strategic policy defeat or there is a major war…perhaps both.  This is inescapable at this point.  The best case scenario is if the US backs out by aligning with Russia to defeat ISIL and negotiate a peace deal that leaves the regime in place for now.  This is highly unlikely and if Hillary Clinton is elected, all but impossible.
    • I am forecasting that the US will continue to spread false anti-Assad and anti-Russian propaganda to drum up war sentiment in the US to prepare the public for the announcement airstrikes against Syrian military positions.  If the neo-cons within the establishment get their way the air strikes will happen, but there will be an immediate cost to US forces.  Russia will defend its positions on the ground and engage any US forces that directly threaten Russian lives and interests.  In this event, it is possible we will witness the first combat losses of US Fifth Generation Fighters, which Washington is rightfully terrified will occur.  The loss of these jets will show everyone how much superiority the US has lost against countries like China under Obama.  This will jeopardize the multi-billion dollar acquisition program that has been riddled with corruption, failures, and delays.  As such, it is far more likely Washington will lead with cruise missile and drone strikes that are easier to deny and hide if they fail to achieve their objectives, but are also much less likely to achieve decisive results.

Read more

Is the US about to Lose Its Last Foothold in Iraq, Create a Terrorist Caliphate, or Start World War III?

I have been warning about the brewing showdown in Syria and how it could quickly escalate in minutes to the brink of World War III.  A key warning embedded in my analyses was that if not properly managed, the Turks would enter the war against the Kurds, which are the most effective US proxy against ISIL.  I warned that should this occur; the Kurds would be once again left for dead by the US in order to maintain its strategic alliance with the Turks.  This would not only place the US fully in league with the Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Nusra Front and other Free Syrian Army (FSA) factions, but would also alienate the Kurds to great detriment of the anti-ISIL effort.  Well, these warnings have gone unheeded and this week we are seeing the first solid open source reports of the factions beginning to turn against the US.  This is a watershed moment that if not immediately mitigated through changes in US strategic policy, will result in the US being completely ejected from Syria and Iraq, the creation of a terrorist caliphate, or World War III.  Those are your policy choices.

Read more

While World was Distracted Iran Received the S-300 Missiles that Could Lead to World War III

While the world has been distracted by the quickening of the dissent into global chaos, it was easy to miss a major even that occurred this week.  Russia delivered the first batch of S-300 missiles to Iran.  The missiles were the last component needed to make their previously delivered S-300 Air Defense System fully operational.  This may signal Russia is moving forward with a more aggressive foreign policy to counter the US military’s growing list of provocative actions.  Further, two countries did not miss this major geostrategic event.  Israel and Saudi Arabia have been carefully watching and monitoring Iran for this event, which may prove to be a red line that at least Israel is unwilling to allow Iran to cross.  If true, the clock is about to run out for Israel to take unilateral action or be at the mercy of warming US foreign policy to Iran.  This could mean the outbreak of WWIII.

Make no mistake, the introduction of a fully operational S-300 Air Defense System in Iran alters the balance of power in the Middle East and Israel and Saudi Arabia know it.  It is possible Israel has developed counter measures to the S-300, but the mere presence of the system alone would fundamentally limit Israel’s ability to attack Iran’s nuclear sites.  Whether or not Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reached a mutually acceptable deal on the sale and delivery of the system to Iran is unknown, but my guess is Israel protested vigorously.  Both the Netanyahu and Putin know that the air defense sale will significantly strengthen and embolden Iran, which is a sworn enemy of Israel.  Further, Iran is seen as a threat by the rest of the Sunni dominated Gulf-Arab countries.  Therefore, one must ask if this could trigger and war and if so, why Russia would finalize the sale and delivery.

I have previously warned and detailed why an operational S-300 Air Defense System is a major event that could trigger a war in the Middle East that goes global.  (See: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2015/08/29/russian-transfer-of-s-300-air-defense-system-may-force-israeli-to-initiate-war-with-iran-before-winter/).  Read more

To serve in the military today is to swear an oath to destroy America and serve the global elite

Today, I watched as Secretary of Defense Carter gave “a major announcement” that transgender people will now be allowed to openly serve in the military.  As absurd as this should appear to a rational human, this was their “big” announcement.  I admit that I thought for a second this was going to actually be something legitimate the Department of Defense (DoD) was going to unveil like how to win the wars we have been fighting for over a decade and a half.  Rather than waste your time like Secretary Carter, I am going to get right to the important point.  The military is more concerned with pushing radical political agendas and creating special socially divisive rights for the Democrat’s electoral base than fighting and winning wars.  The only way to fix this problem is to utterly abandon the institution.  Whether or not you took an oath to uphold and defend the Constitution against all enemies foreign and domestic, this is the time to start drawing lines.  Fortunately, this doesn’t require anything beyond quite literally doing nothing.  The “most powerful military in the world” can literally be destroyed without firing a shot.  To reign in and stop the DoD we must starve it of human and financial capital until such time that it begs for our return on our terms.  My thesis argument is that only by utterly rejecting the military establishment by not serving or funding it can we fix it.  Read more

Can North Korea be allowed to develop a functional nuclear weapons capability?

Lately, in political circles I have been posing a very important policy question.  The question I ask is what does the world look like if North Korea is allowed to possess a viable nuclear weapons capability that truly threatens the United States.  As of now, that world does not exist, but it soon will.  My question is designed to force policy makers to address this impending crisis situation while it still can be contained.  Disturbingly, it appears there is no real consensus on the issue and most seem to just hope that if they don’t acknowledge the problem, it will go away.  Well, I have news.  North Korea is only going to become a bigger problem for the world with disastrous consequences within five years.  Policy makers must seriously tackle this issue now before a nuclear war becomes a reality.

US policy toward North Korea is exceedingly complex and is becoming more dangerous by the week.  The fact the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un is as close to a true irrational actor as the contemporary world has witnessed only makes the situation more volatile.  Any policy missteps could cause anything from headaches to nuclear war for our allies like South Korea and Japan.  Further, China could quickly become involved in a major war against the US, which will be nuclear if it occurs.  Even worse, North Korea is now known inside of intelligence circles as a proxy for Iranian nuclear development.  It is no coincidence that since the Obama Administration freed up frozen Iranian assets that North Korea suddenly has had the funds to test multiple ballistic missiles and nuclear bombs.  Let me be clear, with every nuclear advancement North Korea makes, it not only destabilizes the Korean Peninsula, but it further destabilizers the Middle East and makes a massive war involving both Saudi Arabia and Israel against Iran even more likely.  If not averted now, the world will have one more reason very soon to expect a nuclear war that kills millions of people. Read more

News You Need to Get: April 7, 2016

I am not a huge fan of the major news consolidators because they tend to mask important content with frivolous content of dubious accuracy and reliability.  Further, you tend to get a lot of repetitive reporting of the same “news.”  However, having a list of targeted news articles of substance is very valuable.  As such, on a semi-regular basis, I will continue putting together a list of important links to articles and information that went under reported in the American media.  They will cover a range of topics, but will all deal with critical issues that are going to shape events in each of our lives.

 

http://www.dailymails.xyz/wires/afp/article-3396210/Israel-gets-fifth-German-submarine.html

Israel on Tuesday took delivery of its fifth German-built submarine, an advanced Dolphin-class vessel said to be capable of remaining submerged for up to a week.

Speaking at an official welcome ceremony at the northern port city of Haifa, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the undersea fleet allows Israel “to deter enemies who seek to destroy us.”

“They should know that Israel can strike very hard indeed at anyone who tries to harm it,” he said.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-how-to-hack-an-election/

On the question of whether the U.S. presidential campaign is being tampered with, he is unequivocal. “I’m 100 percent sure it is,” he says.

 

http://www.amazon.com/The-New-Confessions-Economic-Hit/dp/1626566747
“Mr. Perkins’s core message is that American corporations and government agencies employ two types of operatives: ‘economic hit men,’ who bribe emerging economies, and ‘jackals,’ who may be used to overthrow or even murder heads of state in Latin America and the Middle East to serve the greater cause of American empire. . . . [This} book seems to have tapped into a larger vein of discontent and mistrust that Americans feel toward the ties that bind together corporations, large lending institutions and the government — a nexus that Mr. Perkins and others call the ‘corporatocracy.’”
—The New York Times

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/23/science/scientists-ponder-the-prospect-of-contagious-cancer.html?em_pos=small&nl_art=6&te=1&_r=0

While there is no sign of an imminent threat, several recent papers suggest that the eventual emergence of a contagious human cancer is in the realm of medical possibility. This would not be a disease, like cervical cancer, that is set off by the spread of viruses, but rather one in which cancer cells actually travel from one person to another and thrive in their new location.

 

https://theintercept.com/drone-papers/

The Intercept has obtained a cache of secret documents detailing the inner workings of the U.S. military’s assassination program in Afghanistan, Yemen, and Somalia. The documents, provided by a whistleblower, offer an unprecedented glimpse into Obama’s drone wars.

 

http://kurdishdailynews.org/2016/02/18/kurds-warn-turkey-of-big-war-with-russia-if-troops-enter-syria/

Russia has promised to protect Kurdish fighters in Syria in case of a ground offensive by Turkey, a move that would lead to a “big war,” the Syrian group’s envoy to Moscow said in an interview on Wednesday.

“We take this threat very seriously because the ruling party in Turkey is a party of war,” Rodi Osman, head of the Syrian Kurds’ newly-opened representative office said in Kurdish via a Russian interpreter. “Russia will respond if there is an invasion. This isn’t only about the Kurds, they will defend the territorial sovereignty of Syria.”

 

http://m.ibtimes.com/russia-conducts-military-exercises-armenia-base-latest-combat-readiness-drill-1997545

“We are concerned by the size, sale and frequency of Russia’s snap exercises,” a NATO official told CNN in May. “Three of them have included over 80,000 troops. Some of them have been used to deploy troops to annex Crimea, mass forces on Ukraine’s border and support the [pro-Moscow rebels in Ukraine].”

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/imf-predicts-greek-default-will-coincide-with-eu-referendum-claims-wikileaks-a6964676.html

The International Monetary Fund anticipates a possible Greek default on its bailout will coincide with the UK’s referendum on Europe, according to a leaked transcript.

 

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/japan/2016/japan-160403-presstv01.htm

A Japanese submarine, along with two guided-missile destroyers, has docked at a Philippine port near the South China Sea, where there is a territorial dispute with China.

 

https://www.rt.com/news/338831-montreal-police-brutality-protest/

A demonstration against police brutality in Montreal, Canada, led to cars being set alight in the streets and a police station being attacked. The protest was sparked by the death of a black man who was killed by a police rubber bullet last month.

 

https://www.rt.com/news/338833-chemical-gas-aleppo-shelling/

A neighborhood in the Syrian city of Aleppo, which is held by Kurdish YPG militias, has been shelled with chemical agents from territory held by Islamist and FSA factions, a local journalist on the ground has told to RT.

“The attack was carried out between 11.30 and 12.00 local time. The gas that was used in this attack, caused choking and malaise among those affected. This indicates that the poisoning substances were used in the attack,” journalist Nawrouz Uthman reports.

Uthman adds that 23 people were killed and over 100 injured in Thursday’s attack.

 

 

Massive and devastating escalation of War in Syria looms as Syrian Forces backed by Russia are poised to retake Aleppo: Saudi Arabia and Turkey prepare to deploy armies to Syria in response

This is an alert to all of my readers of a potentially imminent global crisis. We are not at the point of a full blown crisis yet, but I am telling everyone they need to not get, but, BE ready for things rapidly to turn very bad within 30-60 days.  I will be closely monitoring this situation and will provide updates as necessary.

While most Americans are distracted by the Super Bowl and the disgusting Jerry Springeresque political theater we call an election process, the world is rapidly descending toward a major, devastating war that will ultimately involve more Americans than both Afghanistan and Iraq combined. Make no mistake, the situation developing in the Middle East is extremely grave and the US government has lost all control. I have warned repeatedly about ignoring the last off ramps to peace in the Middle East and what the result would be. Well, now another prediction has come to pass as Russian backed Syrian troops are poised to retake Aleppo from the murderous Islamic savages and Saudi Arabia and Turkey prepare to militarily join the fight.

One quick look at a map will demonstrate the strategic significance of Aleppo for rebels fighting in Syria. Most critical to the mix of rebel elements still holding Aleppo is that it provides access to key supply lines originating in Turkey. If Aleppo falls, the primary rebel supply line will be cut and the rebels will face a near imminent defeat. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar are the primary backers of rebel forces in Syria and know this means their policy is about to collapse and Shia Iran will become the region’s hegemon. This also petrifies countries like Israel that have remained mostly quiet about the civil war even though they too are deeply involved. As a result, these countries are preparing to commit military forces to prevent Aleppo’s fall. As I have repeatedly warned, this will escalate the conflict significantly and rapidly. See: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/?s=syria

Make no mistake; the US has been on the wrong side of this war. I welcome the advance of Russian backed Syrian forces smashing the rebel forces, which are primarily composed of radical Islamic extremists that have been brutally murdering thousands of innocent people to include Christians. However, as I have repeatedly predicted, if one side in the proxy war primarily between Iran and Saudi Arabia gains a decisive advantage, it would force the other to quadruple down (they have already doubled and tripled) on their policy. At this point, that means putting their troops in actually face to face battle. As I warned for years and literally predicted, Saudi Arabia has now announced it is preparing to deploy its troops to Syria. See: http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/02/general-saudi-arabia-set-deploy-troops-syria-160205042542486.html

The arrival of Gulf Arab armies in Syria will be in a single word, catastrophic. The US long ago lost effective control of the conflict it in large part created, but MUST stop this deployment or risk the outbreak of a full scale regional and possibly world war. The notion that an alliance of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, and Kuwait, the same countries that have collectively spent billions arming and supporting ISIL, will now move to destroy ISIL defies all logic. In fact, it is so politically ridiculous that it is in fact a thinly veiled lie. Instead, Saudi Arabia and Turkey will lead an army into Syria with only one goal and that is to overthrow President Assad. Rather than fighting the radical terrorist elements such as ISIL, they will back them by recasting them as “moderate rebels.” Russia, Iraq, Iran, and Hezbollah will not be fooled by this and proportionally escalate. This sets the stage for a massive and devastating escalation. Read more

Russia sets chessboard for major Middle East war and transition to global dominance with one apocalyptic move

The United States has enjoyed the preeminent position globally as well as the Middle East for the last half a century. Like all empires, the sun has risen and now may be setting on the American century.  This is due in no small part to atrocious leadership and imbecilic foreign policy controlled by ideologues and special interests.  In particular, the US has lost significant influence in the Middle East over the last decade by turning allies into enemies and sovereign nations into hostile failed states.  In the process, the US created leadership vacuums that it was unable or unwilling to fill.  In those voids reentered old actors with Russia leading the way.  With Russia now firmly retrenched in the Middle East, the US can no longer afford to continue with business as usual.  The US must reevaluate its entire foreign policy positions and design a new grand strategy recognizing Russia is no longer a spoiler, but the kingmaker in the Middle East.  Russia has set the chessboard in the Middle East to achieve global dominance in one apocalyptic move.  As such, if there is to be war or peace, analysts should be looking toward Russia. Read more

One Step Closer to Major Middle Eastern War between Iran and Saudi Arabia

Readers of Last Minute Survival are well aware that I have been correctly predicting for years the progression of events in the Middle East toward a total regional conflagration. Speaking broadly of a few key events, I predicted the rise of ISIL, the spread of the “civil war in Syria” to Iraq, and the proxy war between Saudi Arabia (Sunni) and Iran (Shia) going hot.  The execution of a prominent dissident Shiite cleric in Saudi Arabia just took this conflict one notch closer to a total war, which the United States is not prepared.  The brewing war has triggered a nuclear arms race in the Middle East and it now appears averting a massive war will not be possible.  The only question is how to best mitigate the damage.

This escalation has not been fully appreciated in the US and in fact seems to have been discounted by the US Department of State, which will certainly be “surprised” when both countries begin to mobilize their militaries. Both nations are now moving toward a war footing, which has initiated a secret nuclear arms race in the Middle East.  Iran knows Saudi Arabia has a far more modern military and the backing of the United States, the Gulf Coast Countries, and possibly Israel, Turkey, and Pakistan.  Iran is also threatened by Saudi backed Sunni extremists fighting to overthrow its allies to the west in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon while being boxed in by another Saudi backed Sunni extremist group, the Taliban, to its east in Afghanistan.  Iran knows Pakistan has agreed to supply Saudi Arabia with nuclear weapons.  Iran’s generals are not stupid and assess that they must obtain nuclear weapons if they have any hope of successfully defending Iran.  They are also racing to improve their anti-access and missile technologies to thwart any type of amphibious invasion from the US while effectively being able to attack Saudi Arabia’s water and oil installations from afar.  Further, as I have warned, Iran has been racing to operationally deploy advanced, Russian, S-300 air defense systems, which will effectively deny Iranian airspace to all but 5th Generation fighter/attack aircraft.

As overwhelming as the odds may seem to Iran, Saudi Arabia is justifiably terrified of a powerful Iran. What Iran lacks in high tech military hardware, it has in willpower and individual fighting capability, which will prove far more potent than anything the Saudis can muster for a war.  Those of us that have worked with the Saudi military know that the Saudi military is a paper tiger.  The Saudis are lazy and incompetent as warriors, but they have a big checkbook that keeps the US military industrial complex in business.  This keeps Washington and the Pentagon from ever effectively addressing the issue, which will become brutally apparent when a direct conflict between the nations breaks out.  In a head to head fight, Iran’s fighters are better trained, better organized, and far more motivated than even the best Saudi units.  In fact, aside from perhaps Jordan, the Arab armies are a joke.  Most are probably more likely to shoot each other (intentionally or not) before ever fielding an effective force against an enemy.  Further, although Iran has proven its ability to project forces beyond its borders successfully, and would no doubt use Iraq as a staging area for a land invasion of Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia has no such force projection capability.  Without the ability to actually invade and defeat Iran, Saudi Arabia could only at best win a partial victory over Iran.  As such, Saudi Arabia must rely on buying off Washington to intervene and fight its war with American troops and treasure.  The Pentagon at least gets this, but what isn’t well understood by either the generals or the White House is that the Saudi backup plan if Washington bulks is to have a credible nuclear weapons capability that they will use if Washington won’t act.  The US is totally unprepared for and to date has no policy to even remotely address.  Read more

How to Defeat ISIL: Civil-Military Strategy 101

It comes as no surprise to my readers that not only is ISIL still alive and well as a terrorist state, but arguably has grown in power since the United States began military operations “against” it.  I have routinely published on the fact that the US has no strategy and its leaders are an amateurish joke.  Further, I have been documenting for years that ISIL was born and bred by the CIA as a proxy to serve elitist interests and therefore won’t be “destroyed” anytime soon.  Since then, not only have senior US leaders such as the former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, General Flynn confirmed this fact, but Russia has called our bluff and has shown in just a matter of weeks how quickly ISIL could be smashed if the US actually had a policy to defeat the terrorist nation.  Now that the truth that the US created ISIL is out in the open source and ISIL has predictably grown out of control, should the US actually decide that wiping out the terrorist army they created would be wise, today I discuss what that strategy would entail.  Ironically, even a very general strategy is far more detailed than anything the US has so far put together.  To illustrate just how incompetent our senior leadership is in this regard, Hillary Clinton recently announced that her strategy to defeat ISIL was to “defeat ISIL.”  Really?  It is a wonder ISIL doesn’t control more territory with such moronic imbeciles at the helm.  In order to help these moronic policy makers and senior military officers, let me lay out a basic strategic plan against ISIL.

To begin, let me dispense with your failed Irregular Warfare (IW) approaches, which policy makers love because they think they can win a war on the cheap.  The historical record is quite clear; IW does not decisively win wars, it creates them.  This distinction in military manuals and training unfortunately is all but absent.  Only through determined deliberate action can a war be decisively won.  Other than in a few niche applications, arming, training, and equipping proxy armies has never been successful.  Cyber-attacks, psychological warfare, economic development, and public relations campaigns are equally ineffective against a violent enemy willing to kill to achieve its goals.  “Winning the hearts and minds” is complete bullshit and always has been.  This fiction only existed in political circles too scared to acknowledge reality and the brutality that must accompany warfare.  Anything short of brutality and violence is not warfare and should never be conflated with war.  In fact, if lesser means are suitable, then they should be exhausted.  Understanding this would be far healthier for any nation and would lead to a far less liberal use of pseudo-warfare, which is every bit as violent, but just dressed up for political spin.  Now that we have dispensed this modern “pseudo-warfare” and IW, which are completely fictitious shams respective of actual military strategies, let’s discuss what a real war against ISIL looks like.  I warn you…anything short of the below will only delay a far more brutal and bloody war that ultimately will be fought indiscriminately anyhow or lead to a decisive defeat for the Christian West.

Defeating ISIL like any other enemy requires a full spectrum approach.  On the political front, Saudi Arabia and Qatar must be prevented from providing any type of material support to ISIL.  In particular, until firm compliance was established, all military sales and forms of foreign aid to the said countries must be immediately ceased.  Turkey must also be immediately reigned in and all economic support via the purchase of black market oil must be halted.  If Turkey continued to purchase ISIL produced black market oil, pressure should be ratcheted up against Erdogan’s administration to include exclusion from NATO and the EU as well as economic sanction.  Turkey must also be forced to accept Kurdish military action against ISIL in Syria by reaffirming their right to defend Turkish sovereign territory against Kurdish terrorist factions such as the PKK.  Israel also needs to stay out of it and stop bombing Syrian positions, which by default help ISIL.  Respective of Russia, the US needs to work jointly with Russia to share intelligence and coordinate their military offensives to achieve the maximum impact against ISIL.  Option B would be for the US to completely stay out of the fight with ISIL, completely cease support to any parties involved, let the primary actors in the Middle East fight it out, and then step back in once the smoke clears.  I can entertain either option, which honestly are both viable, but for today’s discussion, I am going to focus on US intervention. Read more

Russian transfer of S-300 Air Defense System may force Israeli to initiate war with Iran before winter

Over two decades ago, I began warning that United States’ policies in the Middle East could set the US and world on a trajectory for a major war. Unfortunately, every major policy decision the US has made has exclusively served the interests of the global elite to the detriment of humanity. The trajectory set by these policy decisions has moved the world closer and closer to a full blown world war. More recently, I have warned that the Obama Administration was walking a dangerous foreign policy line in the Middle East that if mismanaged, could lead to horrific consequences. Today, it is become blatantly clear to all but the most ideologically blinded that Obama and his amateur staff have chosen incorrectly and created a perfect storm in the Middle East that will likely lead to a full scale regional war. The culmination of these decisions, no matter their motivation, has set the stage for a showdown between Israel and Iran that is now most likely irreversible. This showdown is what I have previously described as the worst case scenario that must be avoided at all costs. The consequences of which will be catastrophic for not just the Middle East, but the US and the rest of the world. As recently as August, news broke that could finally force Israel into unilateral action against Iran, which will pull the entire region and the US into war, collapse the already sick global economy, and usher in the New World Order.

The event I am speaking of is the Russian announcement that it will move forward with the transfer of S-300 Air Defense Systems to Iran. These sophisticated air defense systems are capable of detecting and successfully interdicting aircraft flown by the Israeli Air Force (IAF) as well as ballistic missiles, drones, and cruise missiles. The potency of this air defense system will alternate the current military balance of the region and has Israel on edge. Read more

Last Minute Survival Analysis Confirmed: Former head of Defense Intelligence Agency confirms US leaders committed the treason of the century when US secretly created terrorist organization known as ISIS/ISIL/IS

Well, once again, I told you so (see LastMinuteSurvival.com and search term “ISIL”). It baffles me how so often people are either willfully ignorant or naively trusting of government even in face of a nearly uninterrupted history of abuses. In just one more case of government deceit and treachery, the truth has finally emerged about how the worst Islamic terrorist organization to emerge in our lifetime rose to power. The truth is the United States armed, trained, equipped, and advised ISIS/ISIL/IS terrorists to carry out the policy plans of the global elite, just as I have explicitly stated for years. This illegal action, more than any other recent revelation, should confirm once and for all that the entire “war on terrorism” has been a manufactured lie from the very beginning. The terrorism “big lie” was fabricated to serve the interests of the global elite. The terrorism boogeyman was created, nursed, and used to convince you through fear, propaganda, and false patriotism to surrender your rights and freedoms in the name of “security.” Now that the truth is out, it is time to use our legal system to root out these enemies of the state by indicting, prosecuting, and punishing every single military and political leader involved in the treason of the century against the US.

Nobody less than the former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, General Flynn, just confirmed that the US knowingly supported Islamic terrorists to form the organization known as ISIS/ISIL/IS. Let me state this again in simple terms so there is zero misconception. The United States secretly and willfully, with full knowledge of the disastrous consequences, set up bases, provided weapons, training, and funding, and then provided intelligence and advisor support to the worst known Islamic terrorists in the world to overthrow a nation that had done nothing to the United States. These terrorists were known at the time to be actively seeking to kill all Christians, crush the West, and specifically destroy the United States. These terrorists were dedicated to killing Americans and many had already taken part in operations against US personnel in Iraq and Afghanistan. Nonetheless, the secret program was ordered so that the ultra-wealthy oil cartels could build a gas pipeline and get richer, undermine Russia, and placate the Israeli lobby in the lead up to a war with Iran. Read more

ISIL Takes Ramadi: World One Step Closer to World War

Perhaps if the Iraqi soldiers used ammunition in their M240 machine gun they would have better results against ISIL.  I loved poorly staged propaganda photos.

Perhaps if the Iraqi soldiers used ammunition in their M240 machine gun they would have better results against ISIL. I loved poorly staged propaganda photos.

This week’s news that ISIL inflicted a heavy defeat upon Iraqi government forces is no surprise.  Whether or not ISIL can hold the ground is yet to be seen, but it sends a strong signal Washington’s strategy in Iraq is failing contrary to the claims of Obama’s paid propagandists.  Further, and more ominous for the world, it moves the Middle East one notch closer to an all-out regional war between Iran and Saudi Arabia.  As I have predicted for years, this coming conflagration is now a near certainty.  At this stage of the on-going proxy war there are simply no peaceful off ramps and it will be a winner takes all struggle.  Either radical Sunni extremists aligned under Saudi Arabia or radical Shia extremists aligned under Iran will prevail, which in either case will trigger a global war that involves the US and Israel.  For those of you saying, “Good, let them kill each other,” a lesson on the global economic implications of a sudden shut down of oil from the Middle East is in order.  In short, outright chaos will ensue.

Those of you that read my work regularly are well aware that I predicted the failure of US efforts to curb ISIL and the fall of Ramadi well over a year ago and the growing regional conflict in the Middle East “years” ago.  In fact, even my recent my global updates from April 20, 2015 speak specifically to Ramadi and ISIL, http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2015/04/20/global-updates/.  In the brief, I specifically called out the Obama Administration as misleading the US on our “success” against ISIL in Tikrit and said that ISIL had simply shifted its forces south to “Ramadi” where I expected it to achieve success.  Below is the exact exert from my forecast. Read more

Peace with Iran will lead to war: Part 2

Hardened Iranian Nuclear Facility at Fordo(w)

Hardened Iranian Nuclear Facility at Fordo(w)

Last week I discussed why peace with Iran was the preferred option.  I outlined a number of salient points uninformed talking heads in the media and well paid Israel lobbyists such as the former US Ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton, will never bring up.  In short, the costs of a war with Iran will far outweigh the costs of accepting a turbulent peace.  Even a successful war against Iran will be a Pyric victory and cause an economic collapse in the US.  Further, even if Iran did test a nuclear weapon, we would still have plenty of time to exercise the war option should it be necessary.  Unfortunately, even if the US does manage to broker a peace deal with Iran, war is now close to a certainty.  In the event of a war with Iran, there will be dire implications for the US.  Today I will discuss why war is now imminent, how it will likely be initiated, and the catastrophic effects on the US you must prepare to endure. Read more

Peace with Iran will lead to war, but not why you think: Part 1

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, right, speaks with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Geneva, Switzerland, in January. Kerry will meet again with Zarif this weekend in the Swiss capital as March deadline approaches. (Keystone/ Martial Trezzini/file/Associated Press)

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, right, speaks with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Geneva, Switzerland, in January. Kerry will meet again with Zarif this weekend in the Swiss capital as March deadline approaches. (Keystone/ Martial Trezzini/file/Associated Press)

Over the last decade, I have produced many papers and articles analyzing events in the Middle East and their geopolitical impact for academia, commercial publications, think tanks, and government agencies.  I stand by my track record as one of the most prescient in the business.  To that end, predicting chaos in the Middle East has been easy, but combining the what (violence) with the who, when, why, and how are the far more demanding predictions.  One the worst case scenarios for a broad outbreak of violence in the Middle East has been the possibility of a major war between Israel and Iran.  This conflict would immediately go regional with the on-going proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia pulling in the remaining Middle Eastern countries.  Once it goes regional, it will be nearly impossible for the U.S., Europe, and Russia to remain on the sidelines.  I have described in detail how this would likely play out as well as how it could be prevented in previous posts (see a partial list below).  I am writing today again with a dire warning for anyone willing to listen.  The most recent events occurring across the Middle East are now signaling the worst case scenario of a major conflict with Iran will come to pass as I have previously predicted.  This first article discusses why war with Iran is unnecessary and must be avoided.  Part II will discuss why even with an Iranian deal, war is inevitable and the dire consequences we can expect.  Read more