Archive for Taliban

President Trump’s Misplaced Faith in the Generals

Approximately, one month ago, President Trump tasked the Pentagon with delivering him a plan to defeat the Islamic State or IS.  What Trump failed to understand was the same people he tasked to solve the IS problem, were the same people that in a very large way created it.  His trusted circle of advisors not only are all products of an institution with a heavily flawed system of promotion, but collectively failed to deliver a winning strategy when they were in combatant command roles.  What kind of “solution” to IS does President Trump honestly think he will get from a group of institutionalized generals?  Does anyone want to bet it will be a “solution” that requires more war?  President Trump is literally asking “the swamp” to create his war policy and this is a fool’s errand.  Based on a 100% failure rate of our Generals this century, this is unfortunately another juncture where it is very easy to assess with high certainty that the “solutions” President Trump will be presented will turn into another policy disaster.  Both Presidents Bush and Obama suffered this hard lesson.  President Trump needs to trash these recommendations and look at completely different ways of soliciting policy if he is to defeat IS and make America great again.  This article is my attempt to speak truth to power and warn President Trump of the mistake he is making before it destroys his presidency.

Seriously, what is President Trump’s senior staff thinking?  I honestly want President Trump to succeed so I am screaming as loud as I can through my articles not to trust the generals.  Why in the world would someone so adamant about “draining the swamp” voluntarily drown himself with the swamp?  This is a question all Americans need to be asking.  The top military brass constitutes a huge portion of that swamp and are already steering him in the wrong direction.  We already have proof.  Take for a second President Trump’s February speech to the military in Florida.  The major takeaways were that he was going to boost spending and cut checks for whatever the Pentagon asked for.  The military-industrial complex loves this kind of braindead logic, which actually hurts, not helps the military.  It hurts because it paints over having to deal with the real problems while lining the pockets of the global elites.  The problem why the US is getting repeatedly defeated in war after war is not because of a lack of training or equipment or spending.  The US military is getting strategically crushed because it has a critical lack of leadership at the strategic level.  For example, the US has defeated the Taliban again and again in tactical engagements much like the US did in the Vietnam War against the Vietcong.  The equipment and training of the US military is better than any military in the history of man and far better than any contemporary force.  However, the semi-illiterate Taliban, with their AKs hammered out of bumper steel are still strategically whipping the US and all of NATO.  This is exceedingly embarrassing, yet no general has taken the fall for the totally absent strategic plan for winning the war in Afghanistan.  Even someone of modest intellect can understand that the problem isn’t gear or money spent.   In short, the military’s problem is not the gear and equipment; it is the subpar general staff where intellectual dereliction and failure to achieve victory is repeatedly awarded with another star.

Many people are quick to jump to the defense of the generals like Mattis.  He is the “warrior monk” they say.  My personal interaction with the man in Iraq would suggest he is a closet weirdo, which will probably be a big story soon enough in the media, but that is for another time.  In fact, I could care less about his J. Edgar Hoover proclivities if he could win a war, but he utterly failed when in charge of CENTCOM.  For those that don’t understand the organization of the military, wars are fought by combatant commanders, not the Secretary of Defense.  In fact, the combatant commander in many ways is far more powerful than the Secretary of Defense.  As the former CENTCOM commander, General Mattis completely failed to develop a new or novel strategy and continued with the status quo of slowly bleeding our military to death in Iraq and Afghanistan.  The man, when put in charge, did not achieve strategic (or even operational) victory, which is the job of a general.  No excuses Marines; General Mattis failed.  General Flynn also failed and per my previous articles, lacked the integrity and moral courage to stand up to policies he knew were disastrous until after he was no longer in line for promotion and safely drawing his pension.  Rounding out the inner circle, General McMaster, President Trump’s pick to replace General Flynn, doesn’t get a by either.  The man has a solid military record, but as Mattis’ deputy at CENTCOM, didn’t stand up with any objections or profess a different way to do business.  In fact he carried out the same failing policies.  All of these generals failed America.

None of these generals spoke out against the way any of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq were being fought, but instead quietly fought hard to lose them.  What is even more ethically disgusting is their disingenuous blame game.  Apparently, their failures are now the result of political pressure from the White House.  However, not a single one of the generals ever stood up to this claimed secret White House policy to apparently loose.  Not one resigned in protest.  It is worth pointing out that the US military’s success rate in war fared no better under Bush than it did under Obama.  Are we to believe both administrations prevented the military from providing a viable strategy to decisively achieve victory?  I am certain that both Obama and Bush, irrespective of political affiliation, would have been ecstatic to be presented with a real plan to win and end the wars.  The truth is both presidents were misled by the military.  Further, war is politics by other means.  They are inseparable and any general that doesn’t understand that is a poor general.  In fact, there hasn’t been a great general yet that didn’t have to find a way to balance his strategy against the political winds of their time.  Washington, Grant, and Eisenhower all had to make it work to win and that is why they are great.  If President Trump thinks that he, a man that never served in the military or fought in a war or knew what the Nuclear Triad was, is going to be someone immune from the same lies the generals sold Presidents Bush and Obama, he is wrong.  President Trump must seek out completely fresh perspectives and this will require him to dive far deeper into the Rolodex than what “the swamp” has pushed in front of him.

Diving deeper into President Trump’s psyche is dangerous, but I really feel that he has an inferiority complex that most likely is derived from the fact he dodged the draft. While he lied and claimed to be too physically inept to go to Vietnam after playing NCAA sports in college, country boys and urban youth far less physically capable than the young Donald Trump were getting shipped off to die in rice patties.  I think this has weighed on President Trump’s conscience and it should.  Again, I want Trump to succeed, but to deny that he was a draft dodger is the epitome of cognitive dissonance.  Knowing this, it is hard to look at how President Trump has surrounded himself with senior generals and not wonder if this is the way he is dealing with some deep set guilt.  Although the generals are certainly better than the people that previously held those positions, President Trump needs to know that it is a combined team of diplomatic, intelligence, military, economic, etc. experts that create policy solutions…not the Pentagon and the big defense contractors whose fortunes rely on perpetual war.  America has let go of Vietnam.  President Trump can too.

Finally, President Trump’s appointment of generals to his inner circle is going to cause a lot of friction.  Contrary to what many may believe, generals don’t play well with others and especially these generals.  General Mattis and Flynn were known for their caustic attitudes.  General Mattis in particular was effectively fired as the commander of Joint Forces Command (JFCOM) because he was unable to learn the necessary people skills to work as an integrator across the services.  Disturbingly, his current role as Secretary of Defense is very similar to his mission at JFCOM, where he failed spectacularly.  In fact, he screwed it up so badly, the then Secretary of Defense Robert Gates disbanded the entire command.  I don’t know how many of you have previously worked with generals, but the term prima donna comes to mind.  These aren’t the approachable types that like to be told they are wrong for starters and that is a very dangerous thing.  If not bad enough, these are people that have been brought up their entire professional lives to defend and grow their “rice bowl.”  They are rewarded for growing bureaucracy and protecting budgets.  They also are bred to view their peers as competitors literally from their first day at Officer Candidate School where they continuously compete against each other for class rankings and assignments.  This has a place in warfare, but doesn’t mesh well with a tightknit team.  They simply do not know efficiency and how to operate as a team.  Having worked with my share of generals, I think it is fair to posture a guess that the fractures within the inner circle will quickly grow into full scale canyons.

In conclusion, if I could speak directly to President Trump or anyone within his inner circle, I would tell him that as a multi-tour combat veteran that did resign in disgust, I appreciate what he is doing for the military, but that the best thing he can do for it is to be hard on it.  The military doesn’t need money.  The military needs leadership.  If he wants to build morale, don’t give me another rifle; give me a leader that will decisively win a damn war at least once in my lifetime.  The very best thing he can do for the military is to fire a minimum of 10% of the general staff.  This isn’t hyperbole.  The military desperately needs a decimation of its general officer corps.  President Trump should retain some military advisors and staff, but he needs to look to those that actually resigned and left in disgust.  Those are the people that had the sense to see through the lies, propaganda, and special interest cronyism.  There are very good strategies and plans out there to actually win, but IT WILL NOT COME FROM THE SENIOR GENERAL STAFF.  These generals are the swamp and we expect you to drain.  As always, I won’t just point out the failures and problems; I will offer to solve them.  If there is anyone with some sense at the top listening, now is the time to reach out before President Trump is taken down by those he gave misplaced trust.  CPAC is happening this weekend so it would be a great time to get the message out to America’s new leadership that we don’t trust the senior brass at the Pentagon any more than the media.

By Guiles Hendrik,

February 24, 2017

The Price You Will Pay for Trump Dumping the Iran Nuclear Deal

Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades Support Fight Against IS in Iraq.  Source: http://thefederalist-gary.blogspot.com/2015/05/hezbollah-brigades-lead-iraqi.html

Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades Support Fight Against IS in Iraq. Source: http://thefederalist-gary.blogspot.com/2015/05/hezbollah-brigades-lead-iraqi.html

The current “deal” with Iran over its nuclear program is better defined as policy capitulation.  To be viable, the deal must have teeth and achieve the endstate desired by the United States.  The current “deal” with Iran is neither and ultimately does not stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.  Therefore, a renegotiation of the treaty is necessary to avoid war.  However, war may still be the inevitable result of either doing nothing or trying to force a renegotiation the Iranians are unwilling to engage in.  If Iran continues to get closer to a nuclear weapon, there will be a major war irrespective of whether or not the US wants it.  Further, if Iran feels cornered, it may simply refuse to renegotiate anything and regionally retaliate against US pressure leading to a military engagement.  Iran isn’t a paper tiger and has the ability cause the US significant problems if we do drive a hard bargain.  Donald Trump will need to understand this in finite detail or the US will pay in blood and treasure abroad and at home. Read more

Vice President Joe Biden Announces War with Russia

I am not being dramatic when I say our Vice President just unilaterally declared war on Russia.  In diplomatic circles, the phrase “words mean things” is quite literal.  This week, none other than the second most powerful leader in the world flatly announced the US was going to attack Russia.  Make no mistake, this was not understood by the world as a warning.  This was a declaration.  Now that the “Crazy Joe” Biden has by de facto started World War Three what happens next? Read more

Prepper Update of World Events for Week of October 10, 2016

The following summary of recent world events is decidedly negative.  This is not due to overt pessimism as much as the facts are just plain bad.  In fact, I didn’t even include events like the effects of Hurricane Mathew, the attack on our warship off the coast of Yemen, and the assassination of more police around the US.  The world is not getting any safer and indicators are all pointing to things worsening as we move into late fall and winter.  The following are major events you should be taking note of with short comments.

  • Situation in Syria: Syrian government forces backed by Iran and Russia continue to pound Aleppo and are nearing a strategic breakthrough.  All actors in Syria recognize that if Assad is able to recapture Aleppo from the Islamic extremists it will be the beginning of the end for Washington’s terrorist proxies in Syria.  As such, there is panic from Doha to Washington.  The terrorist coalition knows that it is now or never for major intervention, which may force the White House to order direct strikes against the Syrian regime, which undoubtedly will be countered by Russian retaliation.  This creates the potential for a rapid outbreak of a major regional war that could go global.  We have effectively arrived at the point I have repeatedly forecasted would occur in Syria where either Moscow or Washington accepts a massive strategic policy defeat or there is a major war…perhaps both.  This is inescapable at this point.  The best case scenario is if the US backs out by aligning with Russia to defeat ISIL and negotiate a peace deal that leaves the regime in place for now.  This is highly unlikely and if Hillary Clinton is elected, all but impossible.
    • I am forecasting that the US will continue to spread false anti-Assad and anti-Russian propaganda to drum up war sentiment in the US to prepare the public for the announcement airstrikes against Syrian military positions.  If the neo-cons within the establishment get their way the air strikes will happen, but there will be an immediate cost to US forces.  Russia will defend its positions on the ground and engage any US forces that directly threaten Russian lives and interests.  In this event, it is possible we will witness the first combat losses of US Fifth Generation Fighters, which Washington is rightfully terrified will occur.  The loss of these jets will show everyone how much superiority the US has lost against countries like China under Obama.  This will jeopardize the multi-billion dollar acquisition program that has been riddled with corruption, failures, and delays.  As such, it is far more likely Washington will lead with cruise missile and drone strikes that are easier to deny and hide if they fail to achieve their objectives, but are also much less likely to achieve decisive results.

Read more

Prepper Relocation Part IV: The Fatal Error of Relocating to an Isolated Region

One of the single biggest mistakes preppers make is that they buy into the myth that relocating to a small region in the North West corner of the United States is their “best” chance of survival.  As you now know from my previous three articles in this series, this theory is inaccurate and is not based on any sound research.  Further, it causes people to unnecessarily incur significant additional costs and difficulties when developing their preparedness plans. However, what you still may not know is that there is a large body of empirical evidence that repeatedly demonstrates people living in isolated, remote areas are often at the greatest risk during wide spread social chaos and collapse.  Not coincidentally, these people also suffer some of the most hardships.  Therefore, with respect to our contemporary situation in the United States, preppers relocating to Idaho with the explicit intent to escape an oppressive government and or are planning to escape widespread instability during a systemic collapse of the system might very well be signing their death warrants.  Instead, contrary to contemporary prepping strategies, it would be better to be closer if not in the midst of a more densely populated area.

I understand what I just wrote probably sent many readers into anger and shock.  Nonetheless, it is far better to get the right information now then to continue along a misguided path to destruction.  No doubt, some readers will immediately discount what I am about to say because they are blinded by their own preconceived biases.  I cannot help those people.  Thankfully, the majority of my readers are intelligent thinking people that will quickly grasp the conclusions to be drawn from the evidence and modify their preparedness strategies accordingly.  In fact, don’t take my word alone, I invite everyone to conduct their own independent research into our prepping assumptions and disseminate their findings.

My theories seem counterintuitive to the premise that the farther from people you are, the farther from harm you are.  This is because the basic assumptions of this safety distance premise are flawed.  As the theory goes, in the event of a collapse or major catastrophe, being located away from people in a remote, self-sufficient redoubt is your best chance.  I have already discussed why the 300 mile rule is a useless metric and that the notion of a “Golden Horde” of refugees fleeing a city and destroying all in their wake is equally unfounded and completely untrue.  The last pillar of this theory is that being isolated conveys additional survival benefits.  To test it accurately, one must evaluate case studies from around the world and then correctly apply them to a realistic scenario domestically.  Read more

Iraq Tells Civilians to Flee Fallujah in Advance of Attack

On a short note, I would like to point out a bit of hypocrisy and genius.  Throughout both wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the US military has been shackled and hamstrung by the necessity to cause no collateral damage.  The theory went that causing any “unnecessary” damage would alienate the population leading to the US losing the war.  Well, at least myself and a few hundred thousand other American servicemen repeatedly tested this and found the theory to be false, but no one at the War College has mentioned it.  In short, worrying about collateral damage only helps the enemy and increases friendly casualties.  Oh, and did I mention we have lost every war that we employed a strategy of limited collateral damage? Read more

Global Updates July 12, 2016: World Chaos is Accelerating

It has been some time since I posted.  I apologize as a lot has transpired over the last two weeks.  To make up for lost time, I am going to give you the briefing points you need to know.

  1. South China Sea dispute heats up.  For those of you worried about the potential for WWIII, we just got one step closer today when the UN committee set up to arbitrate the territorial dispute between China and the Philippines ruled in favor of the Philippines.  Right or wrong, China utterly rejected the ruling and reaffirmed its self-perceived right to continue to economically and militarily develop the region as it sees fit.  This sets the stage for China to walk away from the international community to protect its interests while many smaller Pacific nations like Vietnam, the Philippines, and Japan will feel emboldened to challenge China.  My prediction is this ruling will only fuel hostilities in the region and set the region on a collision course for war.
  2. The spread of superbugs in the US that are resistant to all known antibiotic treatments continues. For a second time in less than a month, colistin resistant E. Coli has been identified in the US.  The strain in question tested positive for the gene mcr-1, which makes it resistant to colistin, a last resort antibiotic.  Per my previous articles (search antibiotic resistant on the LMS homepage), the spread of resistant bacteria is increasing in frequency and could easily hit a breakout stage in the near future.  Once the mcr-1 resistant gene jumps to other resistant infections such as highly resistant Tuberculosis now being brought into the US by the thousands via illegal immigrants and refugees, it is only a matter of time before a true pandemic sweeps across the globe again.  http://abcnews.go.com/Health/superbug-coli-found-time-us/story?id=40488140
  3. Obama is preparing to use wartime (Global War on Terror) martial law powers to ban and seize firearms for “national security.” Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson has been in secret talks with President Obama and other top officials to engineer “gun control” as a national security issue.  The intent, like with nearly every other “Right” under the US Constitution is to suspend the Second Amendment or make it virtually meaningless by using unconstitutional wartime interpretations and rulings of executive powers.  Their plan, like I have detailed repeatedly over the last decade (see: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2015/12/06/the-problem-isnt-islamic-terrorism-it-is-guns-according-to-emperor-obama/), is progressing on schedule.  Obama and his Leftist goons are intentionally inciting division and violence and fully plan to use the predictable violent outcome to justify “federal government” action and emergency powers that restrict firearms for “national security.”  After the events of Dallas and President Obama’s utterly despicable statements, it is clear that this administration is prepared to act as soon as this summer if more violence can be incited across the nation.
  4. Turkey continues to use “terrorist” attacks within its border as cover for supporting terrorists in Syria that vow to kill Americans. It is critical to understand Turkey has been proven to openly conduct false flag attacks against its own citizens to support President Erdogan’s radical agenda.  Most recently, Turkey has suffered a number of major attacks blamed on both ISIL and Kurdish rebel groups, but that is questionable to say the least.  True or not, Ankara wasted no time using the attacks to justify a Turkish military invasion of Syria.  However, the Turkish military has done nothing to destroy radical Islamic groups operating in Syria.  In fact, a closer analysis clearly shows that the Turkish military has instead been used to resupply radical Islamic groups to include the Al Nusra Front and ISIL/ISIS while smashing US backed Kurdish positions.  Ankara is determined to undermine Syrian President Assad and specifically has used its military to push back Kurdish positions in key blocking positions so that it could resupply radical Islamic fighters on the verge of being routed from Aleppo by Syrian forces.  If Syrian forces retake the lost ground and are again about to liberate Aleppo, expect to see another “terrorist” attack inside Turkey that will be immediately used to justify even greater military incursions into Syria to back radical Islamic extremist groups.  As Syria and Russia continue to mop up ISIL positions and approach Raqqa, I fear this could lead to another direct engagement with Russian forces, which could quickly plunge the region into a major war.
  5. US continues to lose ground in Afghanistan. President Obama signed off on increased troop levels in Afghanistan to help combat the Taliban.  In reality, the US completely ceded most of Afghanistan to the Taliban when Obama pulled the bulk of our forces out and our footprint in Afghanistan is getting more and more untenable.  It has gotten so bad, military logisticians plan up front to lose over 20% of any supplies shipped into Afghanistan because of the Taliban.  Further, Special Forces A-Teams are thinly spread across Afghanistan in a vain attempt to train and advise Afghan forces.  This WILL FAIL because the entire concept of training and advising is at best of limited value and at worst, counterproductive, but our brilliant military strategists are too stupid and indoctrinated to recognize the facts.  If a large contingent of forces are not recommitted under competent leadership to Afghanistan, the Taliban will likely begin to capture and hold major cities by years end and begin to directly threaten Kabul on a sustained basis as early as next summer.
  6. Number of US forces continues to quietly increase in Iraq as undeclared war continues. President Obama signed off on additional troop deployments to Iraq to support on-going efforts to recapture Ramadi, Fallujah, and Mosul from ISIL.  Like I predicted (see articles: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/?s=strategy+in+iraq), none of Obama’s faux “strategy” would prove effective and he would again prove to be a hypocrite and put boots on the ground, which he promised not to do.  To date, none of those cities have been completely liberated.  The long overdue offensive on Mosul is again delayed and most likely also going to fail.  At best, Iraqi forces will blast their way through the city, but will find it impossible to root out ISIL elements because the inhabitants of the city “ARE” ISIL.  The Sunni population in Mosul is hostile to the government in Baghdad and isn’t going to change anytime soon unless everyone in the city is killed.  It is important to note that even at the height of the Iraq War, the US military never fully pacified Mosul and was literally fighting in the city as President Obama unilaterally declared our surrender in Iraq.  The bottom line is this deployment of troops is another vain endeavor that will fail because it is led by incompetents.  No further understanding is necessary to KNOW this ends badly for the US and Iraqis.

By Guiles Hendrik

July 12, 2016

To serve in the military today is to swear an oath to destroy America and serve the global elite

Today, I watched as Secretary of Defense Carter gave “a major announcement” that transgender people will now be allowed to openly serve in the military.  As absurd as this should appear to a rational human, this was their “big” announcement.  I admit that I thought for a second this was going to actually be something legitimate the Department of Defense (DoD) was going to unveil like how to win the wars we have been fighting for over a decade and a half.  Rather than waste your time like Secretary Carter, I am going to get right to the important point.  The military is more concerned with pushing radical political agendas and creating special socially divisive rights for the Democrat’s electoral base than fighting and winning wars.  The only way to fix this problem is to utterly abandon the institution.  Whether or not you took an oath to uphold and defend the Constitution against all enemies foreign and domestic, this is the time to start drawing lines.  Fortunately, this doesn’t require anything beyond quite literally doing nothing.  The “most powerful military in the world” can literally be destroyed without firing a shot.  To reign in and stop the DoD we must starve it of human and financial capital until such time that it begs for our return on our terms.  My thesis argument is that only by utterly rejecting the military establishment by not serving or funding it can we fix it.  Read more

Memorial Day Weekend Message: How to truly help veterans according to veterans

I hit my saturation point with the Memorial Day weekend lip service and memorials to those who died “fighting for our freedoms.”  We can argue about previous generations, but the US has not fought a war for “our freedoms” in my lifetime.  The nebulous “War on Terror” has certainly not been about expanding or protecting freedoms and would have been better described as a “War on American Freedoms and Liberties.”  Not a single freedom has been expanded or “protected” by this war.  However, nearly every “right” provided by the Constitution of the United States has been in one form or another attacked, eroded, or outright ignored and flagrantly violated.  As such, today I am going to briefly discuss how you can honor your veterans and how to really help them if you are so inclined.

I am a multi-tour combat veteran and I have had friends wounded and killed in both Iraq and Afghanistan.  Telling the truth, identifying the real enemies, and not parroting patriotic feel good nonsense does not diminish their personal sacrifices or honor.  In fact, I speak for many veterans when I say that we are sick of the rhetoric and would much rather hear substantive discussions about issues that matter.  For example, why after a decade and a half can’t we get decent care at a veterans’ hospital and why can’t all of NATO to include the US, not win a war against some Pashtun villagers.  The military service members I served with are appalled by the political lies and deceit and want justice for those killed and wounded, not lip service.  Stop talking about the ridiculous notion we somehow “liberated” Iraq and brought democracy to the people.  Everyone with even the most basic knowledge of foreign affairs now knows the invasion of Iraq was completely illegal.  The true culprits behind 9/11 and the Iraq War were hiding in the Saudi and US governments and in every lobbying firm and think tank in between.  We want to know why not one of these enemies and traitors respectively were held accountable.  Further, we want to know why general officers were not resigning in mass protest of an obviously flawed and unsalvageable war strategy.  If the “strategy” was so good, why hasn’t it worked?  If it is a viable strategy, then why haven’t we fired the generals that have completely failed to achieve a decisive victory?  If you want to help veterans, demand the truth and accountability while dispensing with the patriotic rhetoric.    Read more

Obama’s pick to head CENTCOM testifies his strategy to fight ISIL will be to use the previous failed strategy to fight ISIL. Can it get any worse for the military?

President Obama picked General Joseph Votel, the current commander of U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM), to succeed General Lloyd Austin as the new head of US Central Command (CENTCOM) pending Senate approval. This was a genuine opportunity for Obama to change the strategic trajectory of US failures in the Middle East. However, after hearing Gen. Votel’s comments, I can say without any doubt the man is an incompetent commander that was politically chosen as a policy “yes man.” In short, Gen. Votel does not have a viable strategy to achieve victory and therefore should be fired as a commander, not promoted. Gen. Votel will not be the man to defeat ISIL unless he takes credit for the good work the Russians, Kurds, and Syrians are doing. Even then, I have full faith and confidence that the White House will manage to scuttle Russia’s successes too for the time being. What it means if Gen. Votel is confirmed by the Senate is that you can expect more of the same series of failures and continued perpetual indecisive wars across the globe. I urge every one of you to make it clear to your senators that Gen. Votel is NOT the man for the job or he will be confirmed and you will see another one of my predictions come to pass. Tell your senators we need a CENTCOM commander that will break from the failed strategies of the last 15 years. Congress must know Gen. Votel is incapable of charting a strategy for decisive victory, which our nation requires.

I am sure that some of my readers, which are well meaning, but loyal brainwashed company men of the military establishment, are cussing me for my blasphemy against such a vaunted general. However, I can say that anyone that places stock in military commanders that fail to achieve victory against a force as inept as the Taliban is a qualified idiot. Further, if they are currently serving in the military and support these professed students of what I refer to as a defeatist military strategy, they are suicidal. How weak minded must someone be to buy into the rhetoric that the Taliban are a super human force that would require a generation to defeat? Only by choosing to lose could that be a reality for the US military. This is strategic dereliction and I will not accept it even if the best Army post graduate students are too institutionalized to see the truth. At times, it is far more effective to be tactful in commentary; however, this is a case where blunt honesty is needed because lives will be lost because of this mockery of a commander. Incompetence left to its own devices is forgivable, but I will give no quarter to incompetence that seeks the power to sign the death certificate of a single life.

Gen. Votel was in charge of the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) before taking over SOCOM and should know that our current strategy of training rebels isn’t working unless you are taking into account the number of ISIL and Taliban fighters we armed, trained, and equipped. Gen. Votel’s professional pedigree sounds superb until you consider “brilliant” losers like General McChrystal came from JSOC as well. Don’t get me wrong, I love the superbly professional organization JSOC has become and can say from working with their phenomenal operators around the globe that they are “tactically” the best in the business. However, the special operations cult worship has to end on Capitol Hill. Special operators regularly do take on missions of vital strategic importance, but they do not decisively operate at the strategic level. The distinction is crucial. Special operators are an extremely valuable warfighting tool, but have become the defacto tool for supporting the flawed notion that you can fight a war on the cheap and win decisively with a handful of special operators training foreign armies and rebels. Part of this comes from the fact many special operators trace their roots to traditional Army Special Forces units where their primary “special” mission is training and advising indigenous forces to support COIN and Foreign Internal Defense (FID) missions even if the historical data now overwhelmingly shows the COIN and FID tactics and techniques don’t work. The bottom line is unless said special operators are launching a strategic nuclear strike, the strategy simply isn’t working at a strategic level and over 15 years of failed war attest to this fact. Neither JSCOC nor SOCOM is designed or capable of giving us a decisive strategic victory against ISIL. Only, a through a true total war of attrition will you finally turn back and utterly defeat the Islamic Holy War against the West.

Specific to Gen. Votel’s demonstrated incompetence, in testimony Wednesday before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Gen. Votel told lawmakers that he supports moving forward with a revised effort to train and equip moderate Syrian rebels battling Islamic State militants. Gen. Votel described the “new” approach as a “thickening effort” as opposed to just raising a large force. What that exactly means is anyone’s guess, but this much is clear. This is the same “old” counterinsurgency (COIN) strategy the US has been peddling since Vietnam, which has never led to anything but total strategic failure. This is repeating a failed and completely discredited strategy and expecting a different result, which is insanity. Gen. Votel should know that there are no “moderate” rebels that will effectively challenge ISIL. He should also know that the only effective fighting force has been the Kurds and Washington is about to double cross them again on behalf of the Turks, which will blow back horribly on our anti-ISIL efforts. How, after billions of dollars were spent overtly and covertly on the failed strategy to arm, train, and equip rebels to fight ISIL in Iraq and Syria, can Gen. Votel honestly believe it will be different this time? Even Gen. Austin, the retiring CENTCOM commander, admitted in Congressional testimony the entire plan only trained four of five fighters! Not even Gen. Votel can be this naïve. Only someone that has sacrificed their integrity at the gates of politics would continuing such a ridiculous policy be possible.

Gen. Votel’s testimony did not improve. He went on to testify, “But I do think it is helpful to have people who have been trained by us, who have the techniques, who have the communications capability, and the resources to link back into our firepower.” The trained fighters, Votel explained, present the Islamic State with added “dilemmas.” This is a very disturbing conclusion by the general considering the historical record shows that US trained forces repeatedly failed when tested in battle and also defected in most cases without even a fight. Worse yet, these indigenous forces took all of our training, techniques, communications, and firepower to the enemy when they defected. In fact, based on the US track record, it would be more accurate to say that it is only helpful to our enemies.
Gen. Votel’s lack of integrity and or lack of good sense will rightfully earn him the blame for the failure of US strategy (or lack thereof) in the Middle East against ISIL. Mark my words, Obama has never accepted responsibility for his growing list of strategic failures and isn’t going to start now. Gen. Votel is signing on to a disastrous strategy that cannot work. Obama will hang this around Gen. Votel’s neck just like he has done with nearly every other commander. If Gen. Votel is even a bit savvy as a strategic thinker, he should clearly see that he is being set up as bad as the disgraced General Petraeus and run for the door or get a new strategy right now.

As with most articles I write, I try not to just criticize and point out flaws, but offer solutions. This article is no different. The links at the bottom of this article are a short list of key articles I have written that accurately predicted the progression to the state of affairs as it stands now in the Middle East with regards to ISIL. A key part of those predictions has been to repeatedly warn that President Obama’s strategy was never a “strategy” and would ultimately fail in a very predictable fashion, which has played out exactly as I predicted over two years ago. This should serve as my bona fides for correctly assessing and accurately predicting events years in advance. Second, I have also included an outline of what a real strategy for a decisive strategic victory would look like. I hope that these articles end up in the right hands of individuals that actually have power over policy, but it suffices for now that the public is being educated about the military’s lies. Whether or not Gen. Votel is confirmed, I will continue to extend the offer to step up and advise anyone actually serious about defeating ISIL going as far as staking my reputation to a winning strategy, which to date, no one has had the courage to do. It is time for our senior policy makers to show real courage and leadership by breaking away from the old caste of establishment beltway characters and seek some fresh, independent perspectives because to date, nothing the snake oil salesmen have provided has worked and it never will. Until then, in the least, call your senators and explain that we need a real military commander in charge of CENTCOM and that Gen. Votel should not be confirmed.

By Guiles Hendrik
March 10, 2016

 

http://www.blackboxwire.com/2014/08/30/islamic-extremism-and-what-lies-ahead-part-i-iraq/
http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/10/01/islamic-extremism-and-what-lies-ahead-part-ii-the-war-on-isis-and-syria/#more-699
http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/11/18/update-on-the-third-iraq-war-against-isilisisisaqsyriaetc/
http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2015/11/21/how-to-defeat-isil-civil-military-strategy-101/

A Message to the Members of the US Military

Instead of exposing lies and treason within the top tiers of government, today, I am going to simply make a plea to the service members of the US armed forces and those thinking about joining. The message is simple.  If you aren’t in, don’t join.  If you are currently in the service, do what you have to do to survive, bring your troops home safely, and get out.  The missions are garbage, the wars are lies, and you are serving the special interests of the elite, not your nation.  Don’t be a fool and buy into the propaganda.  Contrary to your leadership that sold you out long ago, I actually care about your well-being and the future of this nation.  If I can wake even one person up and save them from being killed or heinously wounded in another unnecessary war, this post was worth infinitely more than the time it took to compose.

The issue of service in today’s military was directly put to me by a mother who asked whether I thought her son should enlist in the Marines. Knowing this lady and her son, I thought long and hard before answering her with a definitive, “No.”  The lady knew that I had spent many years in the military in both the enlisted and officer ranks and had served in combat in both Iraq and Afghanistan so seemed taken aback by my blunt answer.  Clearly surprised, she asked what my rationale was for saying it was a bad idea.  I told her the military was bad enough while I was in the service, but the waste and abuse of the lives of our service members is now at the worst levels since Vietnam.  Our troops are simply cannon fodder for wars the US not only has engineered, but has no intention of decisively ending.  Granted, the equipment and training the military provides is better than it ever has been, but our senior leadership is the worst I have ever seen, there is no will or strategy to win, and our troops are being left for dead in places like Afghanistan for political expedience.  Further, all of our efforts, as honorable as they were, were completely in vain in Iraq and Afghanistan because of the massive dereliction in our leadership.  If our leadership and all of NATO couldn’t even handle the Taliban, what does your survivability look like in the military when the elites pick the next fight with an actual competent enemy like Russia or China?  Until the US military purges its general staff and the country elects a competent Commander-in-Chief, run for the door.

Just today in Afghanistan we lost another American serving with a special operations unit. This makes me sick to my stomach with sadness.  Dropping all of the patriotic propaganda, what did that operator give his life for?  How is the loss even remotely justifiable?  Read more

One Step Closer to Major Middle Eastern War between Iran and Saudi Arabia

Readers of Last Minute Survival are well aware that I have been correctly predicting for years the progression of events in the Middle East toward a total regional conflagration. Speaking broadly of a few key events, I predicted the rise of ISIL, the spread of the “civil war in Syria” to Iraq, and the proxy war between Saudi Arabia (Sunni) and Iran (Shia) going hot.  The execution of a prominent dissident Shiite cleric in Saudi Arabia just took this conflict one notch closer to a total war, which the United States is not prepared.  The brewing war has triggered a nuclear arms race in the Middle East and it now appears averting a massive war will not be possible.  The only question is how to best mitigate the damage.

This escalation has not been fully appreciated in the US and in fact seems to have been discounted by the US Department of State, which will certainly be “surprised” when both countries begin to mobilize their militaries. Both nations are now moving toward a war footing, which has initiated a secret nuclear arms race in the Middle East.  Iran knows Saudi Arabia has a far more modern military and the backing of the United States, the Gulf Coast Countries, and possibly Israel, Turkey, and Pakistan.  Iran is also threatened by Saudi backed Sunni extremists fighting to overthrow its allies to the west in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon while being boxed in by another Saudi backed Sunni extremist group, the Taliban, to its east in Afghanistan.  Iran knows Pakistan has agreed to supply Saudi Arabia with nuclear weapons.  Iran’s generals are not stupid and assess that they must obtain nuclear weapons if they have any hope of successfully defending Iran.  They are also racing to improve their anti-access and missile technologies to thwart any type of amphibious invasion from the US while effectively being able to attack Saudi Arabia’s water and oil installations from afar.  Further, as I have warned, Iran has been racing to operationally deploy advanced, Russian, S-300 air defense systems, which will effectively deny Iranian airspace to all but 5th Generation fighter/attack aircraft.

As overwhelming as the odds may seem to Iran, Saudi Arabia is justifiably terrified of a powerful Iran. What Iran lacks in high tech military hardware, it has in willpower and individual fighting capability, which will prove far more potent than anything the Saudis can muster for a war.  Those of us that have worked with the Saudi military know that the Saudi military is a paper tiger.  The Saudis are lazy and incompetent as warriors, but they have a big checkbook that keeps the US military industrial complex in business.  This keeps Washington and the Pentagon from ever effectively addressing the issue, which will become brutally apparent when a direct conflict between the nations breaks out.  In a head to head fight, Iran’s fighters are better trained, better organized, and far more motivated than even the best Saudi units.  In fact, aside from perhaps Jordan, the Arab armies are a joke.  Most are probably more likely to shoot each other (intentionally or not) before ever fielding an effective force against an enemy.  Further, although Iran has proven its ability to project forces beyond its borders successfully, and would no doubt use Iraq as a staging area for a land invasion of Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia has no such force projection capability.  Without the ability to actually invade and defeat Iran, Saudi Arabia could only at best win a partial victory over Iran.  As such, Saudi Arabia must rely on buying off Washington to intervene and fight its war with American troops and treasure.  The Pentagon at least gets this, but what isn’t well understood by either the generals or the White House is that the Saudi backup plan if Washington bulks is to have a credible nuclear weapons capability that they will use if Washington won’t act.  The US is totally unprepared for and to date has no policy to even remotely address.  Read more

America is fed up with Obama’s lies: America puts boots on ground in Syria as predicted by LMS

It should come as no shock to our readers that the Third Iraq War President Obama initiated has already faltered.  As predicted, the strategy (or lack thereof see: http://www.blackboxwire.com/2014/10/11/islamic-extremism-and-what-lies-ahead-part-ii-the-war-on-isis-and-syria/) did not achieve the desired results so now the Department of Defense (DoD), no doubt testing the waters for the White House, is requesting boots on the ground.  As we warned, mission creep is a dangerous thing and would plague this operation.  What started with just a handful of “advisors,” grew into airstrikes in Iraq and then Syria, then over a thousand troops “on the ground,” and now US troop levels in Iraq will soon reach 3,000.  When this new batch of advisors fails to stop the growth of ISIL, expect Obama to retract another “promise” and have “no choice,” but to commit US combat personnel to the fight in Iraq.  Soon, just like in Vietnam, Obama will be steadily sucked into another full blown war in Iraq that the US will neither win nor be able to afford.

This introductory paragraph could have been snatched from today’s headlines detailing how President Obama walked back his repeated promises not to put American “boots on the ground” in Iraq. However, it is a verbatim cut and paste from an article I wrote just over a year ago predicting EXACTLY what is occurring.  See: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/11/18/update-on-the-third-iraq-war-against-isilisisisaqsyriaetc/#more-768  Not so ironically, you didn’t hear the radio and talk show hosts and other “enlightened” pundits detailing this foreseeable reality a year ago because they are hacks.  However, today the airwaves have been alive with people taking notice.  Savage, Hannity, Beck, Wilkow, O’Reilly, etc. all have been detailing how the President lied and how the strategy they supported to bomb ISIL has not worked.  I say better late than never to the party, but American’s need to wake up now. Read more

Last Minute Survival Analysis Confirmed: Former head of Defense Intelligence Agency confirms US leaders committed the treason of the century when US secretly created terrorist organization known as ISIS/ISIL/IS

Well, once again, I told you so (see LastMinuteSurvival.com and search term “ISIL”). It baffles me how so often people are either willfully ignorant or naively trusting of government even in face of a nearly uninterrupted history of abuses. In just one more case of government deceit and treachery, the truth has finally emerged about how the worst Islamic terrorist organization to emerge in our lifetime rose to power. The truth is the United States armed, trained, equipped, and advised ISIS/ISIL/IS terrorists to carry out the policy plans of the global elite, just as I have explicitly stated for years. This illegal action, more than any other recent revelation, should confirm once and for all that the entire “war on terrorism” has been a manufactured lie from the very beginning. The terrorism “big lie” was fabricated to serve the interests of the global elite. The terrorism boogeyman was created, nursed, and used to convince you through fear, propaganda, and false patriotism to surrender your rights and freedoms in the name of “security.” Now that the truth is out, it is time to use our legal system to root out these enemies of the state by indicting, prosecuting, and punishing every single military and political leader involved in the treason of the century against the US.

Nobody less than the former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, General Flynn, just confirmed that the US knowingly supported Islamic terrorists to form the organization known as ISIS/ISIL/IS. Let me state this again in simple terms so there is zero misconception. The United States secretly and willfully, with full knowledge of the disastrous consequences, set up bases, provided weapons, training, and funding, and then provided intelligence and advisor support to the worst known Islamic terrorists in the world to overthrow a nation that had done nothing to the United States. These terrorists were known at the time to be actively seeking to kill all Christians, crush the West, and specifically destroy the United States. These terrorists were dedicated to killing Americans and many had already taken part in operations against US personnel in Iraq and Afghanistan. Nonetheless, the secret program was ordered so that the ultra-wealthy oil cartels could build a gas pipeline and get richer, undermine Russia, and placate the Israeli lobby in the lead up to a war with Iran. Read more

U.S. Admits Paying Terrorists For Services Rendered In Syria

Well, it isn’t like I haven’t been trying to tell you this for years.  What I find funny is that even after overwhelming evidence surfaces, brainwashed statists still can’t come to grips with the degree of corruption and deceit of our government.  Apparently, they are waiting for the government to tell them they are being bad since that is the only source “credible”…I wonder if they are capable of seeing the lunacy of their logic?  Oh, and by the way, it is apparently costing roughly $10 million a day to arm, train, and equip our enemy so that you the taxpayer can then be charged billions more to defeat them.  The only people laughing are the defense industrialists, financiers, and bought politicians.

Guiles Hendrik

 

This article is reposted from http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-01/us-admits-paying-terrorists-services-rendered-Syria

Submitted by Brandon Tourbeville via ActivistPost.com,

When researchers such as myself have reported that the United States is funding al-Qaeda, Nusra, ISIS and other related terror organizations in Syria, we were not kidding. Still, despite the fact that even the U.S. government itself has admitted that it was funding terroristsdirectly and indirectly through Saudi Arabia, the suggestion was met with disbelief, ridicule, or either entirely ignored.

Now, however, the United States government has admitted that it funds terrorists on the ground in Syria yet again, this time placing an individual dollar amount on the assistance provided.

According to the Pentagon, Syrian “rebels” being trained and “vetted” by the United States are receiving “compensation” to the tune of anywhere between $250 to $400 per month to act as America’s proxy forces in the Middle East. Reuters reports that the payment levels were confirmed by the Pentagon and also that the Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter and Navy Commander Elissa Smith both separately admitted the fact that these “new” terrorists are receiving a stipend. Read more

Global Updates: May 21, 2015

ISIL holds Ramadi: The White House, Defense Department, and Secretary of State have all down played the fall of Ramadi as a small “target of opportunity” and mild “setback.”  However, in reality, the fall of Ramadi was very foreseeable and a massive military disaster for the Iraqi government.  As I forecasted, Mosul would not be retaken anytime soon and the Obama strategy…or lack thereof, would be a total disaster.  See http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/10/01/islamic-extremism-and-what-lies-ahead-part-ii-the-war-on-isis-and-syria/#more-699 Rather than being beat back, it is now highly likely that ISIL will continue to press its attack while the Iraqi Army is trying to regroup and capture large parts if not all of Fallujah.  If Fallujah falls, Baghdad will finally be seriously threatened by ISIL.

Sirte falls, ISIL takes 3rd major city in 48 hours:  In what is proving to be another example of Obama’s Foreign Policy disaster initiated under Secretary Clinton and amplified under Secretary Kerry, another major city has fallen to ISIL.  However, it is not in Syria or Iraq.  The city is in Libya.  Yes, the country Obama, Rice, Clinton, and Power “liberated” has now had the western city of Sirte overrun by radical Islamists loyal to ISIL.  According to my count that makes the score in just the last 48 hours 3 ISIL: 0 USA.  Ramadi, Palmyra, and now Sirte all have been overrun.  Even if ISIL can’t hold the ground, the fact they took down three major cities in just days is telling of how “successful” the US strategy to combat ISIL has been.  In fact, Obama’s “strategy” has been such a disaster, one would conclude that he couldn’t possibly have been that stupid and the only way this could be occurring was if it was his intent all along.  It is either amateur hour and Obama desperately needs to read some alternative news and hire new NSC advisors or the man is a traitor.

Russia no longer allowing NATO supplies to move across its borders to Afghanistan:  In another foreign policy disaster that has completely escaped the government media complex, Russia has now halted NATO supplies crossing its borders to Afghanistan.  I verbatim warned of this on March 23, 2014 saying the Russians could play this card in retaliation for NATO escalation in the Ukraine and make it extremely painful to maintain our troops in Afghanistan. http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/?s=russia+will+cut+supply+lines Now the US has only one supply route for its forces.  The unreliable and costly southern supply route begins in the Port of Karachi and runs north through Pakistan and into Afghanistan through extremely dangerous Taliban controlled provinces.  Each convoy that is allowed to pass through these areas pays a heavy toll, which in turn is then used to fund Taliban operations.  Further, Pakistan now has gained significant political leverage over Washington to extort any amount of money it wishes to allow passage of critical NATO supplies.  http://rt.com/news/259809-russia-stops-nato-afghanistan-cargo/

FBI making house calls to people concerned about Jade Helm 15:  In what could be viewed as a major escalation bolstering concerns amongst the public over the upcoming Jade Helm 15 exercise, FBI special agents have apparently begun making house calls to concerned citizens that have raised questions publicly.  http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/video-fbi-now-going-door-to-door-interrogating-americans-about-jade-helm-military-exercises-we-follow-pp-with-anything-like-that_05212015 Although, the special agents appear very polite and almost embarrassed to be performing the house calls, the fact they are knocking on doors is chilling.  Ironically, if the intent was to quell fears and concerns as the agents suggest, they are clearly having the exact opposite effect.  I doubt the special agents are so dumb that can’t figure this out, but why they are not speaking out about how ridiculous and counterproductive these visits are is disturbing.  Common sense tells you their real intent is to gauge the subject’s political views and whether or not to deem him a threat.  As agents, they should be well aware that people are allowed to have distrust of the government, dissent, and openly question authority especially, when it is launching an exercise designed to target American citizens in the US.  Whether the intent is to intimidate or not, it is clear field offices have been spun up to believe citizens that simply want the rule of law respected are now the threat.  This has been so hyped by DHS and the DOJ, it is coming at the expense of legitimate threats like MS13 and New Black Panther Party members publicly calling for the execution of police and making good on those threats.  The Justice Department will certainly spin this to say it is just doing its “due diligence” to make sure things are peaceful and safe, but anyone with half a brain sees the biased political motivations forcing agents out to conduct house calls on people that pose zero threat to anyone following the law and respecting the US Constitution.

China and US escalate tensions:  Recent moves by China to exclude airspace to US military aircraft has led to an increase in tensions.  However, this really has nothing to do with some small dots of islands, territorial integrity, or military development.  The deeper issue arising is that China has risen to a peer competitor level status with the US threatening the post-Bretton Woods financial establishment.  Historically, when the bankers were threatened it led directly to war and I doubt this will end differently.  Specifically, China has established a counter balance to the IMF that Washington desperately tried to stop and utterly failed to prevent.  This single act has broken the IMF/World Bank monopoly and the major banking families intend to make China pay for its actions.  Further, China has also been concluding multi-billion dollar oil/gas deals with Russia, which has undermined any ability Washington thought it had to isolate and strong-arm Russia.  In short, China is now seen as a real threat, but not to America, but rather, to the elites of the Western financial monopoly.  As such, you can bet you will see a strong shift toward painting China as a bigger and bigger existential military threat that very well could lead to the outbreak of war.

Who benefits when the world attacks Yemen? Al Qaeda and the Elite.

Who benefits when the world attacks Yemen?  This is a question that policies makers should have asked before allowing the president to start another foreign war.  In fact, it was asked and the answer was Al Qaeda.  Being that Al Qaeda would be the ultimate winner, one must wonder what kind of treason allowed this war to proceed.  In spite of this knowledge, the United States still backed an Arab coalition in a completely unjustified offensive war against Yemen.  The purported purpose was to bring back the ousted president, but anyone with half a brain would immediately know this was preposterous.  Yemenis are not going to ever accept a president that used a foreign militaries to kill its citizens to regain power.  Thus, knowing that the US was aware that by weakening the Houthi rebels they would by default strengthen Al Qaeda and still not achieve their stated goal, one must look deeper to reveal very disturbing consistencies in US Foreign Policy.

To recap, since the ouster of Yemen’s president widely seen as a US puppet, Saudi Arabia has overtly and the US clandestinely bombed Yemen.  The Houthis still retain power and the population is even more aligned against the ousted president than before the war against Yemen was unleashed.  Further, AQ broke into a prison and released 300 terrorist prisoners.  Al Qaeda has also made significant territorial gains and seized military bases containing weapons stockpiles.  In the meantime, a humanitarian disaster has ensued with thousands of civilians being killed in the bombing raids and fighting while many Yemenis are starving to death.  This operation by any bar has been a total failure and is becoming a humanitarian disaster.  However, no one in the media or Congress is calling out President Obama, the Nobel Peace Prize recipient, for starting an unconstitutional war, losing it, and killing thousands of innocent people all while aiding our enemy.  Why? Read more

Peace with Iran will lead to war: Part 2

Hardened Iranian Nuclear Facility at Fordo(w)

Hardened Iranian Nuclear Facility at Fordo(w)

Last week I discussed why peace with Iran was the preferred option.  I outlined a number of salient points uninformed talking heads in the media and well paid Israel lobbyists such as the former US Ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton, will never bring up.  In short, the costs of a war with Iran will far outweigh the costs of accepting a turbulent peace.  Even a successful war against Iran will be a Pyric victory and cause an economic collapse in the US.  Further, even if Iran did test a nuclear weapon, we would still have plenty of time to exercise the war option should it be necessary.  Unfortunately, even if the US does manage to broker a peace deal with Iran, war is now close to a certainty.  In the event of a war with Iran, there will be dire implications for the US.  Today I will discuss why war is now imminent, how it will likely be initiated, and the catastrophic effects on the US you must prepare to endure. Read more

Peace with Iran will lead to war, but not why you think: Part 1

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, right, speaks with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Geneva, Switzerland, in January. Kerry will meet again with Zarif this weekend in the Swiss capital as March deadline approaches. (Keystone/ Martial Trezzini/file/Associated Press)

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, right, speaks with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Geneva, Switzerland, in January. Kerry will meet again with Zarif this weekend in the Swiss capital as March deadline approaches. (Keystone/ Martial Trezzini/file/Associated Press)

Over the last decade, I have produced many papers and articles analyzing events in the Middle East and their geopolitical impact for academia, commercial publications, think tanks, and government agencies.  I stand by my track record as one of the most prescient in the business.  To that end, predicting chaos in the Middle East has been easy, but combining the what (violence) with the who, when, why, and how are the far more demanding predictions.  One the worst case scenarios for a broad outbreak of violence in the Middle East has been the possibility of a major war between Israel and Iran.  This conflict would immediately go regional with the on-going proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia pulling in the remaining Middle Eastern countries.  Once it goes regional, it will be nearly impossible for the U.S., Europe, and Russia to remain on the sidelines.  I have described in detail how this would likely play out as well as how it could be prevented in previous posts (see a partial list below).  I am writing today again with a dire warning for anyone willing to listen.  The most recent events occurring across the Middle East are now signaling the worst case scenario of a major conflict with Iran will come to pass as I have previously predicted.  This first article discusses why war with Iran is unnecessary and must be avoided.  Part II will discuss why even with an Iranian deal, war is inevitable and the dire consequences we can expect.  Read more

The US defeat in Afghanistan and its inevitable consequences

1

   From the beginning, we considered Afghanistan the more difficult war…it will be so even after we retreat.  The longest war in American history is coming to a close as an indecisive strategic defeat for the US and NATO just as I predicted over a decade ago.  The war was fought against an enemy with an extremely low level of capability, but our generals refused to recognize the critical importance of stopping the enemy’s movement to and from its cross-border sanctuary even when presented with overwhelming analyses.  Specifically, the failure of border security to be made a priority in the overall counterinsurgency strategy all but guaranteed the inevitable exhaustion and defeat of the occupation force.  Embarrassingly, the hard truth is the “most powerful” and certainly the most expensive military in history failed to decisively defeat the Taliban and Al Qaeda.  The US/NATO defeat was not for lack of manpower or firepower, it was a defeat born of intellectual incompetence and utter dereliction by our senior leadership.  Importantly, the critical failure responsible for the US/NATO defeat remains at the senior echelons within the US military and White House, is systemic, and remains uncorrected.  Now, just like in Iraq, we are told by President Obama and his appointees that Afghans will take over operations and complete the mission.  The chances of the Afghans defeating the Taliban are zero and we must be prepared for the inevitable consequences.

   First, I want to support my certainty that most of Afghanistan will be overrun by the Taliban.  To do this we need only to look at the current status of the war.  To date, the combined power of the US and NATO has after 14 years proved unable to defeat the Taliban.  However, we are told to believe by Obama and his generals that the Afghans, with a relative few Americans in support, will be capable of cleaning up the mess and decisively defeating the Taliban.  The result of this is another easily predictable, preordained defeat.  Afghanistan’s new president, Ashraf Ghani, simply will not be able to hold on to Kabul, much less the whole of Afghanistan, and will likely meet the same fate as his earlier predecessor Mohammad Najibullah Ahmadzai at the hands of the Taliban.  Further, it is appearing more likely that this will not just be a Taliban victory, but may be completed under the unified banner of ISIL. Read more