Tag Archive for Erdogan

Post Coup Aftermath in Turkey

What can we expect next from Turkey?  Although, elements of the coup are still holding out in Ankara, the coup leadership has allegedly fled Turkey by helicopter to Greece and asked for asylum.  All indications now are that Erdogan will remain in power and the coup failed.  This is bad news for Turkey and the rest of the world.

The immediate aftermath is clear.  Erdogan’s security forces are now busy arresting a massive number of military personnel that are believed to have supported the coup.  Once complete, this will consolidate Erdogan’s power over the military, which is has already deeply purged.  Further, the failure of the coup due to “popular support” will only increase his power, which will accelerate Turkey’s descent into a Islamic State.  In short, the idea of a secular Turkey died last night with the failed coup.  Read more

While we were distracted WWIII draws closer thanks to Turkey: Some advice for Russia

Let me be upfront.  Turkey is not an ally and needs to be kicked out of NATO immediately.  Turkey is led by a highly corrupt and fanatical zealot that is playing a suicidal game of chicken with the Russians.  By itself, Turkey would get justifiably stomped by Russia and that would be the end of it.  However, as a NATO ally, Turkey has the ability to suck the US and the world into WWIII by literally picking a fight with Russia.  Most recently, Turkey invaded Iraq and so far has refused to remove its forces against Baghdad’s wishes.  Iraq is now in the process of requesting Russian support to forcibly remove those forces.  This, without doubt, will lead to a huge escalation that hopefully, Europe and the US will have enough sense to distance itself from.  Nonetheless, Turkey’s leader Erdogan is hell bent on provoking a war as a way to solidify his waning grasp on power in Turkey.  Although, I am quite confident Russia has done its homework, let me pontificate for a moment on some points for Russia to consider.

First, Russia can’t be seen as weak and being bullied by Turkey.  Generally this leads directly to escalation, but I am pretty comfortable in saying Russia is the wrong country to pick in this particular game of brinkmanship.  My analysis concludes that NATO will not back Turkey should Russia retaliate in a future confrontation with Turkey over Syria.  As such, Russia should be diplomatic, but be ready to protect their assets with their full military might should they again be threatened by Turkey.  This is a dangerous gamble, but consider that no country in Europe right now looks at Turkey favorably.  Read more