Tag Archive for ISIS

While we were distracted WWIII draws closer thanks to Turkey: Some advice for Russia

Let me be upfront.  Turkey is not an ally and needs to be kicked out of NATO immediately.  Turkey is led by a highly corrupt and fanatical zealot that is playing a suicidal game of chicken with the Russians.  By itself, Turkey would get justifiably stomped by Russia and that would be the end of it.  However, as a NATO ally, Turkey has the ability to suck the US and the world into WWIII by literally picking a fight with Russia.  Most recently, Turkey invaded Iraq and so far has refused to remove its forces against Baghdad’s wishes.  Iraq is now in the process of requesting Russian support to forcibly remove those forces.  This, without doubt, will lead to a huge escalation that hopefully, Europe and the US will have enough sense to distance itself from.  Nonetheless, Turkey’s leader Erdogan is hell bent on provoking a war as a way to solidify his waning grasp on power in Turkey.  Although, I am quite confident Russia has done its homework, let me pontificate for a moment on some points for Russia to consider.

First, Russia can’t be seen as weak and being bullied by Turkey.  Generally this leads directly to escalation, but I am pretty comfortable in saying Russia is the wrong country to pick in this particular game of brinkmanship.  My analysis concludes that NATO will not back Turkey should Russia retaliate in a future confrontation with Turkey over Syria.  As such, Russia should be diplomatic, but be ready to protect their assets with their full military might should they again be threatened by Turkey.  This is a dangerous gamble, but consider that no country in Europe right now looks at Turkey favorably.  Read more

America is fed up with Obama’s lies: America puts boots on ground in Syria as predicted by LMS

It should come as no shock to our readers that the Third Iraq War President Obama initiated has already faltered.  As predicted, the strategy (or lack thereof see: http://www.blackboxwire.com/2014/10/11/islamic-extremism-and-what-lies-ahead-part-ii-the-war-on-isis-and-syria/) did not achieve the desired results so now the Department of Defense (DoD), no doubt testing the waters for the White House, is requesting boots on the ground.  As we warned, mission creep is a dangerous thing and would plague this operation.  What started with just a handful of “advisors,” grew into airstrikes in Iraq and then Syria, then over a thousand troops “on the ground,” and now US troop levels in Iraq will soon reach 3,000.  When this new batch of advisors fails to stop the growth of ISIL, expect Obama to retract another “promise” and have “no choice,” but to commit US combat personnel to the fight in Iraq.  Soon, just like in Vietnam, Obama will be steadily sucked into another full blown war in Iraq that the US will neither win nor be able to afford.

This introductory paragraph could have been snatched from today’s headlines detailing how President Obama walked back his repeated promises not to put American “boots on the ground” in Iraq. However, it is a verbatim cut and paste from an article I wrote just over a year ago predicting EXACTLY what is occurring.  See: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/11/18/update-on-the-third-iraq-war-against-isilisisisaqsyriaetc/#more-768  Not so ironically, you didn’t hear the radio and talk show hosts and other “enlightened” pundits detailing this foreseeable reality a year ago because they are hacks.  However, today the airwaves have been alive with people taking notice.  Savage, Hannity, Beck, Wilkow, O’Reilly, etc. all have been detailing how the President lied and how the strategy they supported to bomb ISIL has not worked.  I say better late than never to the party, but American’s need to wake up now. Read more

Russian transfer of S-300 Air Defense System may force Israeli to initiate war with Iran before winter

Over two decades ago, I began warning that United States’ policies in the Middle East could set the US and world on a trajectory for a major war. Unfortunately, every major policy decision the US has made has exclusively served the interests of the global elite to the detriment of humanity. The trajectory set by these policy decisions has moved the world closer and closer to a full blown world war. More recently, I have warned that the Obama Administration was walking a dangerous foreign policy line in the Middle East that if mismanaged, could lead to horrific consequences. Today, it is become blatantly clear to all but the most ideologically blinded that Obama and his amateur staff have chosen incorrectly and created a perfect storm in the Middle East that will likely lead to a full scale regional war. The culmination of these decisions, no matter their motivation, has set the stage for a showdown between Israel and Iran that is now most likely irreversible. This showdown is what I have previously described as the worst case scenario that must be avoided at all costs. The consequences of which will be catastrophic for not just the Middle East, but the US and the rest of the world. As recently as August, news broke that could finally force Israel into unilateral action against Iran, which will pull the entire region and the US into war, collapse the already sick global economy, and usher in the New World Order.

The event I am speaking of is the Russian announcement that it will move forward with the transfer of S-300 Air Defense Systems to Iran. These sophisticated air defense systems are capable of detecting and successfully interdicting aircraft flown by the Israeli Air Force (IAF) as well as ballistic missiles, drones, and cruise missiles. The potency of this air defense system will alternate the current military balance of the region and has Israel on edge. Read more

Last Minute Survival Analysis Confirmed: Former head of Defense Intelligence Agency confirms US leaders committed the treason of the century when US secretly created terrorist organization known as ISIS/ISIL/IS

Well, once again, I told you so (see LastMinuteSurvival.com and search term “ISIL”). It baffles me how so often people are either willfully ignorant or naively trusting of government even in face of a nearly uninterrupted history of abuses. In just one more case of government deceit and treachery, the truth has finally emerged about how the worst Islamic terrorist organization to emerge in our lifetime rose to power. The truth is the United States armed, trained, equipped, and advised ISIS/ISIL/IS terrorists to carry out the policy plans of the global elite, just as I have explicitly stated for years. This illegal action, more than any other recent revelation, should confirm once and for all that the entire “war on terrorism” has been a manufactured lie from the very beginning. The terrorism “big lie” was fabricated to serve the interests of the global elite. The terrorism boogeyman was created, nursed, and used to convince you through fear, propaganda, and false patriotism to surrender your rights and freedoms in the name of “security.” Now that the truth is out, it is time to use our legal system to root out these enemies of the state by indicting, prosecuting, and punishing every single military and political leader involved in the treason of the century against the US.

Nobody less than the former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, General Flynn, just confirmed that the US knowingly supported Islamic terrorists to form the organization known as ISIS/ISIL/IS. Let me state this again in simple terms so there is zero misconception. The United States secretly and willfully, with full knowledge of the disastrous consequences, set up bases, provided weapons, training, and funding, and then provided intelligence and advisor support to the worst known Islamic terrorists in the world to overthrow a nation that had done nothing to the United States. These terrorists were known at the time to be actively seeking to kill all Christians, crush the West, and specifically destroy the United States. These terrorists were dedicated to killing Americans and many had already taken part in operations against US personnel in Iraq and Afghanistan. Nonetheless, the secret program was ordered so that the ultra-wealthy oil cartels could build a gas pipeline and get richer, undermine Russia, and placate the Israeli lobby in the lead up to a war with Iran. Read more

U.S. Admits Paying Terrorists For Services Rendered In Syria

Well, it isn’t like I haven’t been trying to tell you this for years.  What I find funny is that even after overwhelming evidence surfaces, brainwashed statists still can’t come to grips with the degree of corruption and deceit of our government.  Apparently, they are waiting for the government to tell them they are being bad since that is the only source “credible”…I wonder if they are capable of seeing the lunacy of their logic?  Oh, and by the way, it is apparently costing roughly $10 million a day to arm, train, and equip our enemy so that you the taxpayer can then be charged billions more to defeat them.  The only people laughing are the defense industrialists, financiers, and bought politicians.

Guiles Hendrik

 

This article is reposted from http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-01/us-admits-paying-terrorists-services-rendered-Syria

Submitted by Brandon Tourbeville via ActivistPost.com,

When researchers such as myself have reported that the United States is funding al-Qaeda, Nusra, ISIS and other related terror organizations in Syria, we were not kidding. Still, despite the fact that even the U.S. government itself has admitted that it was funding terroristsdirectly and indirectly through Saudi Arabia, the suggestion was met with disbelief, ridicule, or either entirely ignored.

Now, however, the United States government has admitted that it funds terrorists on the ground in Syria yet again, this time placing an individual dollar amount on the assistance provided.

According to the Pentagon, Syrian “rebels” being trained and “vetted” by the United States are receiving “compensation” to the tune of anywhere between $250 to $400 per month to act as America’s proxy forces in the Middle East. Reuters reports that the payment levels were confirmed by the Pentagon and also that the Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter and Navy Commander Elissa Smith both separately admitted the fact that these “new” terrorists are receiving a stipend. Read more

Global Updates: May 29, 2015

-Seismic activity has markedly increased globally over the last few months and 2015 may prove to be an above average year.  Major quakes have struck the Pacific Ring to include the disastrous quake in Nepal.  Just yesterday evening a large quake struck northern Alaska.  Further and I believe most likely related, volcanic activity is spiking globally.   Just this week a volcano in Southern Japan literally exploded while volcanoes from Chile to Hawaii are again spewing lava and ash.  These events tend to go in cycles as fault lines unzip and pressure is released.  One can reasonable expect more events in the coming months and should be on high alert if they live near/on a fault line, near an active volcano, or along a coast vulnerable to tsunamis.  Further, sustained volcanic activity will affect weather patterns and could lead to cooler than normal temperatures for months after the eruption.  Currently, this is not an issue, but if other major eruptions occur this year and are sustained, this will certainly alter the Earth’s weather because the ash gets swept up into the high atmosphere where it spreads globally and reflects sunlight.

http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/erupting_volcanoes.html

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/

http://www.livescience.com/46576-more-earthquakes-still-random-process.html

-ISIL still holds Ramadi contrary to US Secretary of State John Kerry’s stupid predictions last week.   ISIL has now likely outmaneuvered the Iraqi counter attack claiming to have encircled “on 3 sides” the terrorist army.  I am not sure how that translates to “encircled,” but whether or not there was a problem with the Arabic translation, in plain English that means ISIL has a flank wide open to reinforce or retreat through and they likely exploited this gap.  The fact that we haven’t seen an outright retreat of ISIL from Ramadi, which the Iraqi government would quickly publicize, tells you everything you need to know about the facts on the ground.  Further, as the Iraqi Army bears down on Ramadi, ISIL will no doubt maneuver its main element to attack where the Iraqi Army is not in strength.  I would rate it highly likely that Fallujah, Hit, and areas of Baghdad will be attacked whether or not ISIL conducts a tactical withdrawal from Ramadi.  This tactic has already demonstrated it is effective against the slow and unwieldy government forces.  It wears them down, attrits their forces, and demoralizes the government.  The war will only intensify and if ISIL is not dislodged from Ramadi within the next week, it will likely solidify and hold its gains making any future attempts to dislodge them extremely costly for the Iraqi military.

http://www.newindianexpress.com/world/Isil-Sends-Top-Cleric-to-Show-off-Control-over-Ramadi/2015/05/29/article2838802.ece

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/11639414/Isil-targets-Sunni-families-in-Ramadi-with-revenge-killings.html

http://www.thenational.ae/world/middle-east/15-killed-in-baghdad-hotel-bombings

-The US admits Obama’s ISL “strategy” is not working.  Reports also are trickling out of major dissent within the Pentagon.  Further, as predicted, airstrikes have proved of limited value and now the military is saying it needs to commit more troops.  I warned of this predictable escalation back to a full scale war in the Middle East.  Humility truly is a virtue so I take no please in saying once again, “I told you so.”  In fact, last year, I was so disgusted with even the mere use of the term “strategy,” that I wrote an entire piece blasting the Administration and its completely idiotic, non-strategy, that was predestined to failure.  If you truly want to understand why we are failing and Iraq and why it will only get worse as I verbatim described in my analysis, you need to read and share: http://www.blackboxwire.com/2014/10/11/islamic-extremism-and-what-lies-ahead-part-ii-the-war-on-isis-and-syria/.  You can then read the short follow-up to the above article at:

http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/11/18/update-on-the-third-iraq-war-against-isilisisisaqsyriaetc/.

The five minutes you spend reading these two articles will serve as one of the best primers to understanding the escalating crisis in Iraq and the greater Middle East and why we are getting it wrong.  Rather than just calling out incompetents/incompetence in the government, I am going to simply name key individuals that have legitimate influence and ask them to take notes.  Perhaps 99% will never see the article or read it, but if even 1% takes the time to skim the article, progress is being made.  Today, I want to challenge @Phil_Gaskin, who most likely finds my anti-leftist statements blasphemy, but I want to give him the benefit of the doubt.  Perhaps he is the sole voice of reason in the Administration…I don’t know.  What I do know is he is smart enough to read my articles and understand that by adopting what I am recommending would save everyone a lot of heartache and inject some professionalism into what, to date, has been a never ending policy amateur hour of disaster after disaster.  So to you Phil Gaskin, I challenge you to have a sit down discussion about what a real ISIL strategy should be.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/may/28/hillary-clinton-tied-think-tank-bashes-obamas-isis/?page=all

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/05/29/team-obama-shrugs-at-isis-victories.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/rift-widens-between-obama-us-military-over-strategy-to-fight-islamic-state/2014/09/18/ebdb422e-3f5c-11e4-b03f-de718edeb92f_story.html

-The draconian anti-“Patriot Act” is due to sunset this weekend.  Americans that still value their civil liberties would celebrate this law expiring, but have little optimism anything will change.  In fact, it is likely that President Obama will illegally continue the unconstitutional domestic spy programs with or without faux legal authority.  Not only is this extremely hypocritical of a president that ran on returning our civil liberties and ending the spy state, but it will prove just how lawless our nation has become.  Even after the courts and anyone with basic sense determined that what the Patriot Act was being used to justify was utterly unconstitutional; (Specifically, total collection of electronic records without probable cause or a search warrant.) power hungry and/or bought politicians still are trying to make a case for why this law is needed.  I would immediately point out to anyone to be on guard for the “all or nothing” spin.  The Administration is trying to scare people into believing if the illegal data collection is stopped, we will suddenly become vulnerable.  This is absurd.  First of all, NSA’s domestic collection has to date stopped zero terrorists.  Second, if the Administration was actually worried about US security, they would immediately stop importing Muslims to the US from around the world and particularly, from places like Somalia where everyone and their brother seems to be connected to Al Shabaab.  Finally, NSA will continue to operate in its legitimate mission to protect Americans by returning to foreign collection.  It isn’t as if NSA will cease to function and not have a job if they are no longer targeting Americans.  In fact, they may actually become more effective, efficient, and actually gain some victories over foreign enemies of the state.

Global Updates: May 21, 2015

ISIL holds Ramadi: The White House, Defense Department, and Secretary of State have all down played the fall of Ramadi as a small “target of opportunity” and mild “setback.”  However, in reality, the fall of Ramadi was very foreseeable and a massive military disaster for the Iraqi government.  As I forecasted, Mosul would not be retaken anytime soon and the Obama strategy…or lack thereof, would be a total disaster.  See http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/10/01/islamic-extremism-and-what-lies-ahead-part-ii-the-war-on-isis-and-syria/#more-699 Rather than being beat back, it is now highly likely that ISIL will continue to press its attack while the Iraqi Army is trying to regroup and capture large parts if not all of Fallujah.  If Fallujah falls, Baghdad will finally be seriously threatened by ISIL.

Sirte falls, ISIL takes 3rd major city in 48 hours:  In what is proving to be another example of Obama’s Foreign Policy disaster initiated under Secretary Clinton and amplified under Secretary Kerry, another major city has fallen to ISIL.  However, it is not in Syria or Iraq.  The city is in Libya.  Yes, the country Obama, Rice, Clinton, and Power “liberated” has now had the western city of Sirte overrun by radical Islamists loyal to ISIL.  According to my count that makes the score in just the last 48 hours 3 ISIL: 0 USA.  Ramadi, Palmyra, and now Sirte all have been overrun.  Even if ISIL can’t hold the ground, the fact they took down three major cities in just days is telling of how “successful” the US strategy to combat ISIL has been.  In fact, Obama’s “strategy” has been such a disaster, one would conclude that he couldn’t possibly have been that stupid and the only way this could be occurring was if it was his intent all along.  It is either amateur hour and Obama desperately needs to read some alternative news and hire new NSC advisors or the man is a traitor.

Russia no longer allowing NATO supplies to move across its borders to Afghanistan:  In another foreign policy disaster that has completely escaped the government media complex, Russia has now halted NATO supplies crossing its borders to Afghanistan.  I verbatim warned of this on March 23, 2014 saying the Russians could play this card in retaliation for NATO escalation in the Ukraine and make it extremely painful to maintain our troops in Afghanistan. http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/?s=russia+will+cut+supply+lines Now the US has only one supply route for its forces.  The unreliable and costly southern supply route begins in the Port of Karachi and runs north through Pakistan and into Afghanistan through extremely dangerous Taliban controlled provinces.  Each convoy that is allowed to pass through these areas pays a heavy toll, which in turn is then used to fund Taliban operations.  Further, Pakistan now has gained significant political leverage over Washington to extort any amount of money it wishes to allow passage of critical NATO supplies.  http://rt.com/news/259809-russia-stops-nato-afghanistan-cargo/

FBI making house calls to people concerned about Jade Helm 15:  In what could be viewed as a major escalation bolstering concerns amongst the public over the upcoming Jade Helm 15 exercise, FBI special agents have apparently begun making house calls to concerned citizens that have raised questions publicly.  http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/video-fbi-now-going-door-to-door-interrogating-americans-about-jade-helm-military-exercises-we-follow-pp-with-anything-like-that_05212015 Although, the special agents appear very polite and almost embarrassed to be performing the house calls, the fact they are knocking on doors is chilling.  Ironically, if the intent was to quell fears and concerns as the agents suggest, they are clearly having the exact opposite effect.  I doubt the special agents are so dumb that can’t figure this out, but why they are not speaking out about how ridiculous and counterproductive these visits are is disturbing.  Common sense tells you their real intent is to gauge the subject’s political views and whether or not to deem him a threat.  As agents, they should be well aware that people are allowed to have distrust of the government, dissent, and openly question authority especially, when it is launching an exercise designed to target American citizens in the US.  Whether the intent is to intimidate or not, it is clear field offices have been spun up to believe citizens that simply want the rule of law respected are now the threat.  This has been so hyped by DHS and the DOJ, it is coming at the expense of legitimate threats like MS13 and New Black Panther Party members publicly calling for the execution of police and making good on those threats.  The Justice Department will certainly spin this to say it is just doing its “due diligence” to make sure things are peaceful and safe, but anyone with half a brain sees the biased political motivations forcing agents out to conduct house calls on people that pose zero threat to anyone following the law and respecting the US Constitution.

China and US escalate tensions:  Recent moves by China to exclude airspace to US military aircraft has led to an increase in tensions.  However, this really has nothing to do with some small dots of islands, territorial integrity, or military development.  The deeper issue arising is that China has risen to a peer competitor level status with the US threatening the post-Bretton Woods financial establishment.  Historically, when the bankers were threatened it led directly to war and I doubt this will end differently.  Specifically, China has established a counter balance to the IMF that Washington desperately tried to stop and utterly failed to prevent.  This single act has broken the IMF/World Bank monopoly and the major banking families intend to make China pay for its actions.  Further, China has also been concluding multi-billion dollar oil/gas deals with Russia, which has undermined any ability Washington thought it had to isolate and strong-arm Russia.  In short, China is now seen as a real threat, but not to America, but rather, to the elites of the Western financial monopoly.  As such, you can bet you will see a strong shift toward painting China as a bigger and bigger existential military threat that very well could lead to the outbreak of war.

ISIL Takes Ramadi: World One Step Closer to World War

Perhaps if the Iraqi soldiers used ammunition in their M240 machine gun they would have better results against ISIL.  I loved poorly staged propaganda photos.

Perhaps if the Iraqi soldiers used ammunition in their M240 machine gun they would have better results against ISIL. I loved poorly staged propaganda photos.

This week’s news that ISIL inflicted a heavy defeat upon Iraqi government forces is no surprise.  Whether or not ISIL can hold the ground is yet to be seen, but it sends a strong signal Washington’s strategy in Iraq is failing contrary to the claims of Obama’s paid propagandists.  Further, and more ominous for the world, it moves the Middle East one notch closer to an all-out regional war between Iran and Saudi Arabia.  As I have predicted for years, this coming conflagration is now a near certainty.  At this stage of the on-going proxy war there are simply no peaceful off ramps and it will be a winner takes all struggle.  Either radical Sunni extremists aligned under Saudi Arabia or radical Shia extremists aligned under Iran will prevail, which in either case will trigger a global war that involves the US and Israel.  For those of you saying, “Good, let them kill each other,” a lesson on the global economic implications of a sudden shut down of oil from the Middle East is in order.  In short, outright chaos will ensue.

Those of you that read my work regularly are well aware that I predicted the failure of US efforts to curb ISIL and the fall of Ramadi well over a year ago and the growing regional conflict in the Middle East “years” ago.  In fact, even my recent my global updates from April 20, 2015 speak specifically to Ramadi and ISIL, http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2015/04/20/global-updates/.  In the brief, I specifically called out the Obama Administration as misleading the US on our “success” against ISIL in Tikrit and said that ISIL had simply shifted its forces south to “Ramadi” where I expected it to achieve success.  Below is the exact exert from my forecast. Read more

Global Updates

In addition to my more in-depth posts, I will be routinely adding short bulletized points to keep our readers up to date on global issues.  If you would like more details on a specific issue, please post to comments or email me directly at LMS.

April 20, 2015

  • US sending warships to “prevent” Iran from providing arms to Houthis in Yemen.  The US has greatly contributed to the crisis in Yemen and engaging in a stand-off with Iran over support to each country’s respective proxies is a losing card for the White House to play.  The US (aside from special interests) has nothing to gain from this conflict.  The only possible winner will be AQAP (Al Qaeda).  Yemen’s US backed “president” in exile will never be able to return to “effective” power after using foreign militaries to bomb and kill Yemeni civilians.  Further, the Houthis, which pose no threat to the US will be weakened, but not pushed from power.  The US will no doubt dupe itself into another disastrous conflict.  The end result will be prolonging the chaos in Yemen and AQAP gaining significantly more power.  Just as I warned, the proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia/Qatar in Syria would eventually engulf the entire region and turn hot.  If the US policy in Yemen was to create greater Middle East conflict, empower Islamic extremism, and further destabilize global oil markets, it has achieved its objectives.
  • US arrests suspects attempting to join ISIL.  The US acts as though this was a great crime fighting/anti-terrorism win; however, it is a sign of deeper problems that have been self-inflicted.  Minnesota in particular is a hot bed of Islamic activity because of the suicidal domestic immigration policies that favor and actually import tens of thousands of people into the US annually from countries known for radical Islamism such as Somalia.  In short, it is a self fulfilling prophecy that has been used to justify an unnecessary domestic spy/police state and draconian legislation such as the “Patriot Act.”
  • Iraqi military backed by US and Iran fails to retake key cities from ISIL.  Contrary to rosy claims by the Obama Administration, the Iraqi Army has only scored marginal victories against what appears to be a far more dynamic and better led ISIL force.  Specifically, government forces were able to seize some key areas around Tikrit, but have so far failed to effectively secure the city.  Further, while the Iraqi military was focused north in Tikrit, ISIL has appeared to have shifted its fighting strength to the Ramadi area where it has gained ground in recent weeks.  As predicted, the violence and bloodshed in Iraq will continue and grow as long as the proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia continues to burn.  As one side gains ground, the other side will bolster its support for its proxy until the conflict has grown so big and so violent it will directly involve its original sponsors.  The end result will be a disaster for both the Middle East and the US.
  • Drought in California continues at record levels.  If you haven’t planted a large garden this year, plan to pay more…a lot more, at the grocery store.  As warned in previous articles last winter, food prices have continued to rise.  This price inflation isno where near at its peak with beef prices skyrocketing.  The conditions that continue to cause price hikes will persist.  Crops largely grown in California will see some of the largest spikes such as nuts and lettuces.
    • http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/02/19/californias-water-shortage-will-lead-to-a-spike-in-food-prices-and-economic-peril/
    • http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/02/24/the-impending-food-price-crisis-time-to-plant-your-survival-garden/
    • http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/02/24/feds-withhold-water-to-california-farmers-for-first-time-in-54-years/
  • High taxes and over regulation finally ruining Virginia.  Northern Virginia, an area historically known for its strong economy and growing population has begun to feel the pressure of increasingly socialist governmental policies.  Naturally, the region draws on people working for the federal government and the big bureaucracy mindset has metastasized across the Potomac into the Commonwealth of Virginia.  High taxes, oppressive regulations, and stifling over population have all been the result.  This caustic bureaucratic recipe has led to a fed up population that is now leaving in droves.  Ironically, many of these people leaving were responsible at the ballot boxes for the socialist turn in governance.  Perhaps they learned their lesson and will not repeat their same mistake in the future, but that is doubtful.  As the population growth levels out and then begins to drop, local governments will soon realize budget deficits are growing and they are unable to provide the services originally programmed.  Without undoing what has become a socialist style of governance in the enclave, Northern Virginiais doomed to double down on its current failures and create another communist utopia on the banks of the Potomac.
    • http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/washington-area-population-increase-slowing-down-census-figures-indicate/2015/04/19/34683ab0-d7b5-11e4-8103-fa84725dbf9d_story.html

By Guiles Hendrik

 

 

 

Peace with Iran will lead to war: Part 2

Hardened Iranian Nuclear Facility at Fordo(w)

Hardened Iranian Nuclear Facility at Fordo(w)

Last week I discussed why peace with Iran was the preferred option.  I outlined a number of salient points uninformed talking heads in the media and well paid Israel lobbyists such as the former US Ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton, will never bring up.  In short, the costs of a war with Iran will far outweigh the costs of accepting a turbulent peace.  Even a successful war against Iran will be a Pyric victory and cause an economic collapse in the US.  Further, even if Iran did test a nuclear weapon, we would still have plenty of time to exercise the war option should it be necessary.  Unfortunately, even if the US does manage to broker a peace deal with Iran, war is now close to a certainty.  In the event of a war with Iran, there will be dire implications for the US.  Today I will discuss why war is now imminent, how it will likely be initiated, and the catastrophic effects on the US you must prepare to endure. Read more

Peace with Iran will lead to war, but not why you think: Part 1

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, right, speaks with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Geneva, Switzerland, in January. Kerry will meet again with Zarif this weekend in the Swiss capital as March deadline approaches. (Keystone/ Martial Trezzini/file/Associated Press)

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, right, speaks with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Geneva, Switzerland, in January. Kerry will meet again with Zarif this weekend in the Swiss capital as March deadline approaches. (Keystone/ Martial Trezzini/file/Associated Press)

Over the last decade, I have produced many papers and articles analyzing events in the Middle East and their geopolitical impact for academia, commercial publications, think tanks, and government agencies.  I stand by my track record as one of the most prescient in the business.  To that end, predicting chaos in the Middle East has been easy, but combining the what (violence) with the who, when, why, and how are the far more demanding predictions.  One the worst case scenarios for a broad outbreak of violence in the Middle East has been the possibility of a major war between Israel and Iran.  This conflict would immediately go regional with the on-going proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia pulling in the remaining Middle Eastern countries.  Once it goes regional, it will be nearly impossible for the U.S., Europe, and Russia to remain on the sidelines.  I have described in detail how this would likely play out as well as how it could be prevented in previous posts (see a partial list below).  I am writing today again with a dire warning for anyone willing to listen.  The most recent events occurring across the Middle East are now signaling the worst case scenario of a major conflict with Iran will come to pass as I have previously predicted.  This first article discusses why war with Iran is unnecessary and must be avoided.  Part II will discuss why even with an Iranian deal, war is inevitable and the dire consequences we can expect.  Read more

The US defeat in Afghanistan and its inevitable consequences

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   From the beginning, we considered Afghanistan the more difficult war…it will be so even after we retreat.  The longest war in American history is coming to a close as an indecisive strategic defeat for the US and NATO just as I predicted over a decade ago.  The war was fought against an enemy with an extremely low level of capability, but our generals refused to recognize the critical importance of stopping the enemy’s movement to and from its cross-border sanctuary even when presented with overwhelming analyses.  Specifically, the failure of border security to be made a priority in the overall counterinsurgency strategy all but guaranteed the inevitable exhaustion and defeat of the occupation force.  Embarrassingly, the hard truth is the “most powerful” and certainly the most expensive military in history failed to decisively defeat the Taliban and Al Qaeda.  The US/NATO defeat was not for lack of manpower or firepower, it was a defeat born of intellectual incompetence and utter dereliction by our senior leadership.  Importantly, the critical failure responsible for the US/NATO defeat remains at the senior echelons within the US military and White House, is systemic, and remains uncorrected.  Now, just like in Iraq, we are told by President Obama and his appointees that Afghans will take over operations and complete the mission.  The chances of the Afghans defeating the Taliban are zero and we must be prepared for the inevitable consequences.

   First, I want to support my certainty that most of Afghanistan will be overrun by the Taliban.  To do this we need only to look at the current status of the war.  To date, the combined power of the US and NATO has after 14 years proved unable to defeat the Taliban.  However, we are told to believe by Obama and his generals that the Afghans, with a relative few Americans in support, will be capable of cleaning up the mess and decisively defeating the Taliban.  The result of this is another easily predictable, preordained defeat.  Afghanistan’s new president, Ashraf Ghani, simply will not be able to hold on to Kabul, much less the whole of Afghanistan, and will likely meet the same fate as his earlier predecessor Mohammad Najibullah Ahmadzai at the hands of the Taliban.  Further, it is appearing more likely that this will not just be a Taliban victory, but may be completed under the unified banner of ISIL. Read more

Why No One Should Serve in the US Military: Your leaders are incompetent and your next Secretary of Defense is no exception.

The face of your next wartime leader...really?

The face of your next wartime leader…really?

As a combat veteran of the wars in both Afghanistan and Iraq, I am going to be very blunt.  Lives depend on being direct and the need for military personnel to come forward and tell the truth.  In fact, it is chilling that no one has called out the insanity taking place before our very eyes within the ranks of the military.  The senior military leadership is incompetent to lead.  Our failures in both Iraq and Afghanistan bare this out.  Today’s testimony by the soon to be next Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter should make it blatantly clear that no one should consider joining our military.  For current active duty and reserve members, run for the door and get the hell out as soon as your obligations allow. Read more

Update on the Third Iraq War against ISIL/ISIS/IS/AQ/Syria/etc.

US Advisors in Iraq begin training. Source dw.de/Getty/Afp

US Advisors in Iraq begin training. Source dw.de/Getty/Afp

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It should come as no shock to our readers that the Third Iraq War President Obama initiated has already faltered.  As predicted, the strategy (or lack thereof see: http://www.blackboxwire.com/2014/10/11/islamic-extremism-and-what-lies-ahead-part-ii-the-war-on-isis-and-syria/) did not achieve the desired results so now the Department of Defense (DoD), no doubt testing the waters for the White House, is requesting boots on the ground.  As we warned, mission creep is a dangerous thing and would plague this operation.  What started with just a handful of “advisors,” grew into airstrikes in Iraq and then Syria, then over a thousand troops “on the ground,” and now US troop levels in Iraq will soon reach 3,000.  When this new batch of advisors fails to stop the growth of ISIL, expect Obama to retract another “promise” and have “no choice,” but to commit US combat personnel to the fight in Iraq.  Soon, just like in Vietnam, Obama will be steadily sucked into another full blown war in Iraq that the US will neither win nor be able to afford. Read more

Islamic extremism and what lies ahead? Part II: The War on ISIL and Syria

Airstrikes in Iraq

Airstrikes in Iraq

President Obama and his top military advisors have learned nothing and have made a grave mistake starting a war with Syria using ISIL as the pretext.  Just as I was confident and proven correct that this situation would materialize, I am equally confident in my analysis that this new war will lead to America’s greatest foreign policy disaster to date.  Neither war with Syrian nor ISIL will be decisive, successful, or lead to greater security for the American people.  However, the war may indeed turn out to lead to America’s unwinding as the world’s sole superpower and economic bankruptcy.  This post will continue my analysis on the on-going crisis unfolding in the Middle East respective of Obama’s newest war. Read more

THE NEXT 9/11: We are not prepared for how ISIL will use advanced military weapons to attack US targets

The Obama Administration has knowingly allowed ISIL to gain strength and capture more and more territory inside of Iraq and has set the stage for a second 9/11 style attack against US targets, which may in fact be the US Embassy Baghdad.  The White House looked the other way for years because the US, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, in particular, were covertly arming, training, equipping, and advising elements of what it falsely believed was the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in Syria.  This organization of what became ISIL occurred at US sponsored bases in Jordan, Turkey, and now Syria proper.  However, the FSA was in the complete control of Islamic extremists from an early stage (http://www.blackboxwire.com/2013/09/09/media-missed-the-biggest-coup-in-the-middle-east-and-it-wasnt-in-egypt/).  This CIA created rebel army then quickly grew too big for the CIA to control as many insiders warned would happen.  As extremists took over the remaining “moderate” elements of the FSA, advanced weapons covertly provided to fight Assad, such as the US made Stinger missiles, were seized and retasked for the fight in Iraq.  With the covert backing of the US, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, ISIL gained enough strength and organization to become a formidable light infantry army and capture large swaths of Sunni controlled areas of Iraq.  This fight was originally justified as necessary to build a cross border sanctuary for the anti-Assad forces fighting in Syria, but in reality turned out to be the genesis of a new terrorist state.  With the capture of territory that included Syrian and Iraqi military bases, ISIL fell into control of a large number of advanced military weapons that supercharged their fighting ability beyond what the CIA intended or could control.  At this point, some advisors took refuge in that ISIL may not have the technical knowhow to maintain and fully operate systems such as fighter jets, air defense systems, and M1 Abrams tanks.  However, this is a false logic that breeds a false sense of security because ISIL certainly has the skills to use these advanced weapons asymmetrically in attacks never before possible.  The US national security establishment is simply not prepared to deal with this increased level of state-like terrorist organization. Read more

Islamic extremism and what lies ahead? Part I: Iraq

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Over the last few years, I have written many posts and provided consultation on the situation I predicted would materialize in the Middle East and North Africa as a result of US policy blunders.  In short, I predicted that our policies would lead to the creation of an even greater Islamist enemy that would destabilize the entire region and likely lead to a multi-front regional war for hegemonic dominance between Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Israel.  I predicted we would be forced to recognize the Kurds, that Iraq would breakup and return to sectarian violence, that we would support false flag chemical attacks in Syria to try and ignite a war, and that our proxy army in Syria would back fire and become our worst enemy.  Further, I detailed how this conflict would continue to increase in intensity until it no longer was proxy war, but a direct full-fledged war between the belligerents with global implications.  As my previous analyses have come to pass and been proven accurate by current events down to the most specific details, it is time to expand and update what one can expect respective of the impact of Islamic extremism. Read more

The O’Reilly “Fiction:” Setting the Factor Straight

Against my better judgment, I decided to watch a segment of “The O’Reilly Factor” on Fox News to hear his points on the latest developments in Iraq. In O’Reilly’s defense, he has been a brilliant talk show host and highly successful writer and businessman. However, at the end of the day, O’Reilly is still a journalist with limited real world expertise on many of the topics he provides commentary on. Specifically, O’Reilly poses as an expert, but is totally lacking in experience when it comes to matters of military application and foreign affairs. O’Reilly has never served in combat, is not an intelligence analyst, and so far has not demonstrated himself as a policy maker. So to no surprise, when I tuned in, O’Reilly was expounding his usual pompous, ill informed, bomb them all rhetoric with respect to the Islamic extremist army dubbed ISIL or ISIS. Within thirty seconds of listening to O’Reilly’s poorly informed diatribe, I remembered why I had stopped watching Fox. As such, I feel as though Fox News and Bill O’Reilly needed some better informed input to ensure Fox lives up to its “fair and balanced” moniker and openly challenge O’Reilly to a debate on Iraq policy.
First of all, I want to make it clear we lost in Iraq. Bill O’Reilly is still grasping to a false reality and believes we actually accomplished strategic objectives (won) in Iraq before our retreat. The fact the US was defeated is tough to deal with, but nonetheless fact. It in no way diminishes the honor of our veterans. Suggesting otherwise to those that cannot dissect honor from the success or failure of an army in battle is ridiculous. The notion that loss in battle or war dishonors our troops is no more logical than suggesting soldiers of losing armies across thousands of years of recorded history had no honor. For example, the many British army units fought with the utmost honor in the American Revolution, soldiers fighting for the Confederate Army during the American Civil War fought with great honor, and Rommel’s Afrika Corps has been distinguished again and again for its honor by historians, but all of the above armies ultimately lost their respective wars. In fact, honor is not hinged upon whether one wins or loses, but in how one conducts himself in combat. Iraq was never pacified and never made safe for Americans, but we maintained our honor. The US certainly isn’t calling the shots across the nation now. The end state achieved was a strategic setback for US interests across the region by strengthening our foes. No matter how much the Obama Administration whitewashes our retreat from Iraq, the enemy was still fighting and still holding ground when we left.
For those of you who did not fight in Iraq and have not visited Iraq since our retreat, you should know that Mosul was never pacified and maintained its status as a hotbed of Al Qaeda (AQ) activity. Neither President Bush nor President Obama finished the war. To the present day, Mosul has been a part of the ratline of jihadists making their way to fight in Syria. In fact, US intelligence has been well aware that Mosul has been a key staging point for AQ training and equipping jihadists en route to joining ISIL for years. Mosul has also been effectively “no-go” territory for westerners and has been controlled since before the US retreat by Sunni extremists. As such, the fear and panic that ISIL has “captured” Mosul is overstated. It is true they kicked out the token government forces, but the Iraqi military never controlled anything beyond the ground below their feet hiding behind the walls of abandoned US military bases. Beyond kicking out the token Iraqi forces, the only difference appears to be ISIL formally cemented their previous control of that city and surrounding regions with the execution of anyone supporting the Iraq government. So, if O’Reilly was consistent and well informed, he would have recognized that Mosul and neighboring cities like Tikrit with a large presence of Sunni extremists “falling” to ISIL was not in and of itself a game changer.
Second, O’Reilly fails to remember that it was the Sunnis, during the “Awakening,” that allied with US forces to fight the Shia militias attacking and killing Americans daily. In fact, I distinctly remember Sadr’s brigades of Shia militia backed by Iran attacking US military personnel with zeal throughout the war. I also remember the Shia going from house to house in what was originally mixed Sunni-Shia neighborhoods of Baghdad and ethnically cleansing the population. The Shia death squads brutally murdered any Sunni they found and turned Baghdad into a Shia city. However, it is now the Sunni extremists that O’Reilly has repeatedly called “savages” that deserve to be bombed. I would argue to O’Reilly that both factions have lived up to the pejorative term savage and have demonstrated their eagerness to kill Americans before their fellow Iraqi time and again and as such, we should be happy to leave them to their demise. In short, they are getting what they deserve and I see no reason Americans need to be again placed in the line of fire and paying to “save” savages that want us dead while they are busy killing one another.
Third, O’Reilly has totally forgotten that it was Maliki and the Iraqi government that refused to grant the US a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) that would have protected our troops and allowed them to remain in Iraq beyond their set date of retreat. True, President Obama used the SOFA as a means to justify the US retreat out of Iraq, but nonetheless, the Iraqis wanted American forces out of their country. O’Reilly should perhaps volunteer himself for military service in a country that he is not invited and where killing, even in self-defense, will be deemed murder. Perhaps he does not realize the very real legal dangers our troops will be faced with as they return to Iraq. O’Reilly’s insistence on the deployment of military forces creates a conundrum for the troops because they are being deployed outside of war, to a sovereign nation, and violating its laws. Does O’Reilly actually believe Maliki’s word that our troops will now receive immunity and that President Obama will do whatever is necessary to ensure Maliki is held to his word? I think not.
Third, O’Reilly just doesn’t seem to get the fact that the war as fought under Bush was a disaster and later under Obama was also a disaster. I guess O’Reilly missed the fact that when the war began, Saddam Hussein was killing extremists for free and had nothing to do with 9/11 beyond being the fall guy for Saudi Arabia. It was Saudi Arabia, not Iraq, which was responsible for carrying out a state sponsored act of war against the US on 9/11. This fact is why Representative Walter Jones from North Carolina wants the classified 9/11 Report released so that the public will know the truth and the lies perpetrated by the US government. If US strategy was effective, there would be LESS, not more extremists. Of course it is overwhelmingly clear our strategy failed judged by this bar. O’Reilly also seems to forget that by toppling Saddam’s regime, we created the vacuum that allowed these extremists to flourish to the point they now occupy their own autonomous Islamic state. When this point is made, O’Reilly flies into defense mode and charges the person as an “apologist.” O’Reilly solely blames the Islamists, but fails to recognize the very clear order of events of cause and effect leading to this situation. O’Reilly can believe what he wants, but is not allowed to create his own facts and cherry pick from his arbitrary timeline of events. For example, O’Reilly makes the point that we invaded Iraq to rid the country of Saddam and for humanitarian purposes. On this point alone, O’Reilly must have deleted his memory files much as the IRS seems to have deleted emails. We did not invade Iraq for the purposes O’Reilly states. We invaded Iraq because we were made to believe that Iraq was an existential threat that possessed weapons of mass destruction (WMD) that it would not turnover to U.N. inspectors, was going to use the WMD against the US, and was supporting AQ. Nothing short of creating this existential threat would have brought American into the war. As the invasion kicked off and the contrived lies became clear, the Bush Administration had to save face. The Administration then made a deliberate policy decision to change the motive for the war effort to regime change and humanitarian issues. As such, O’Reilly’s stated purpose for the war is completely fictitious. Further, O’Reilly has chided every democratic administration for humanitarian military operations, but somehow thinks he can hang on to that rationale to defend the disaster Bush created in Iraq.
O’Reilly claims we did Iraq a great favor by ridding the country of Saddam, but again, suspends logic by implying that a full invasion was the only way to “rid” Iraq of Saddam. O’Reilly has to know that there were numerous opportunities and plenty of other options to eliminate and or contain Saddam and any threat he could have possibly posed to the US. In stating this, O’Reilly totally undermines the deaths of near 1,000,000 Iraqis throughout both wars with Iraq. More importantly to me, he also dishonors the American veterans that fought in Iraq by incorrectly believing that perpetuating political lies and propaganda he somehow brings honor to their unnecessary injuries and deaths. Only by telling the truth and prosecuting the political liars within our own government that sent them out to fight a senseless war would he actually do these honorable men and women justice. However, O’Reilly continues to pander to his establishment masters to the disgrace of all who served. Although the likes of Karl Rove, Donald Rumsfeld, and Dick Cheney may applaud O’Reilly, Bill becomes vile in the eyes of veterans those traitors sent to an illegal war. I am positive that very few of the million dead Iraqis posed even the slightest threat to America and would be much happier if they were alive for starters. I am also confident that the thousands of Americans who lost loved ones or that were horribly wounded would also be better off alive and well today, even if Saddam was still in power. No matter what O’Reilly believes from his ivory tower about how we improved the lives of the average Iraqi, the millions of wounded, displaced, starved, and dead would find comfort in knowing the US would never come to “help” Iraq again.
Fourth, our bombing didn’t work, yet, O’Reilly is adamant about the positive effects “heavy bombing” would have for the US against ISIL. O’Reilly seems to think that if we just carpet bomb one more convoy we will win. He seems to “know” that our pilots can positively identify targets flying at nearly the speed of sound or faster and often from above 35,000 feet as long as the “bad guys” are in the open desert. I would laugh, but he is actually serious…and using his own words, a buffoon. I guess he fails to understand how the fact ISIL is operating with the same US provided military vehicles that the Iraqi military is using can complicate targeting. If perhaps, O’Reilly had actually served in combat as a Joint Tactical Air Controller, he would know that his line of logic is ridiculous, but since he did not, let me enlighten him. Just because there is a convoy of trucks with guns in the Middle East does not positively identify the convoy as “bad guys.” In fact, the factions fighting often look indistinguishable even from the ground and much less so from the air. Without good intelligence and legitimate boots on the ground observing, identifying, and marking targets for air, O’Reilly’s airstrikes will not only be futile, but 100% counterproductive. I also think that O’Reilly must have somehow shelved the knowledge that ISIL possesses “Stinger” missiles. Even though I would argue that the likelihood is the bulk of these man portable, surface-to-air missiles are advanced Soviet designs smuggled into Syria by our very own CIA from Libya (hello Benghazi), the missiles nonetheless exist and pose a significant threat to our aircraft operating at low altitudes. I wonder if the loss of an American pilot and an F-16 is worth it to O’Reilly?
Finally, O’Reilly went on to say that ISIL does not recognize the Iraq-Syrian border and that we must pursue ISIL into Syria. I do not disagree that the border has long since ceased to exist and that to prosecute an effective campaign, you must not allow the insurgent sanctuary. Too bad we didn’t use this same logic in Afghanistan where even the dullest of officers recognized that to decisively defeat the Taliban, one must either secure the border or cross into Pakistan, but I digress. Moving back to bombing ISIL in Syria, O’Reilly completely demonstrates his hypocrisy and wins the award for pinhead. Time and again, O’Reilly has been on air demanding President Obama support the rebels in Syria and has attacked the Administration repeatedly for not doing enough, yet, he fails to realize that he is simultaneously demanding we bomb ISIL and support ISIL. O’Reilly is naïve and or ignorant if he fails to make the connection that we have been covertly organizing, arming, training, and equipping the rebel forces in Syria to fight President Assad and it is these same forces, which are now rampaging throughout Iraq. The savages that O’Reilly demands we bomb are the savages we created just like in Afghanistan and Libya. In fact, if we bomb ISIL at their points of origin as O’Reilly suggests… in their training camps in Syria (Jordan and Turkey too O’Reilly), I wonder if he realizes we will be killing American special forces and CIA ground branch officers currently training these terrorists. So I ask O’Reilly, who are the good guys and who are the bad guys because I am very confused.

By Guiles Hendrik
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