Tag Archive for War

Who benefits when the world attacks Yemen? Al Qaeda and the Elite.

Who benefits when the world attacks Yemen?  This is a question that policies makers should have asked before allowing the president to start another foreign war.  In fact, it was asked and the answer was Al Qaeda.  Being that Al Qaeda would be the ultimate winner, one must wonder what kind of treason allowed this war to proceed.  In spite of this knowledge, the United States still backed an Arab coalition in a completely unjustified offensive war against Yemen.  The purported purpose was to bring back the ousted president, but anyone with half a brain would immediately know this was preposterous.  Yemenis are not going to ever accept a president that used a foreign militaries to kill its citizens to regain power.  Thus, knowing that the US was aware that by weakening the Houthi rebels they would by default strengthen Al Qaeda and still not achieve their stated goal, one must look deeper to reveal very disturbing consistencies in US Foreign Policy.

To recap, since the ouster of Yemen’s president widely seen as a US puppet, Saudi Arabia has overtly and the US clandestinely bombed Yemen.  The Houthis still retain power and the population is even more aligned against the ousted president than before the war against Yemen was unleashed.  Further, AQ broke into a prison and released 300 terrorist prisoners.  Al Qaeda has also made significant territorial gains and seized military bases containing weapons stockpiles.  In the meantime, a humanitarian disaster has ensued with thousands of civilians being killed in the bombing raids and fighting while many Yemenis are starving to death.  This operation by any bar has been a total failure and is becoming a humanitarian disaster.  However, no one in the media or Congress is calling out President Obama, the Nobel Peace Prize recipient, for starting an unconstitutional war, losing it, and killing thousands of innocent people all while aiding our enemy.  Why? Read more

The US defeat in Afghanistan and its inevitable consequences

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   From the beginning, we considered Afghanistan the more difficult war…it will be so even after we retreat.  The longest war in American history is coming to a close as an indecisive strategic defeat for the US and NATO just as I predicted over a decade ago.  The war was fought against an enemy with an extremely low level of capability, but our generals refused to recognize the critical importance of stopping the enemy’s movement to and from its cross-border sanctuary even when presented with overwhelming analyses.  Specifically, the failure of border security to be made a priority in the overall counterinsurgency strategy all but guaranteed the inevitable exhaustion and defeat of the occupation force.  Embarrassingly, the hard truth is the “most powerful” and certainly the most expensive military in history failed to decisively defeat the Taliban and Al Qaeda.  The US/NATO defeat was not for lack of manpower or firepower, it was a defeat born of intellectual incompetence and utter dereliction by our senior leadership.  Importantly, the critical failure responsible for the US/NATO defeat remains at the senior echelons within the US military and White House, is systemic, and remains uncorrected.  Now, just like in Iraq, we are told by President Obama and his appointees that Afghans will take over operations and complete the mission.  The chances of the Afghans defeating the Taliban are zero and we must be prepared for the inevitable consequences.

   First, I want to support my certainty that most of Afghanistan will be overrun by the Taliban.  To do this we need only to look at the current status of the war.  To date, the combined power of the US and NATO has after 14 years proved unable to defeat the Taliban.  However, we are told to believe by Obama and his generals that the Afghans, with a relative few Americans in support, will be capable of cleaning up the mess and decisively defeating the Taliban.  The result of this is another easily predictable, preordained defeat.  Afghanistan’s new president, Ashraf Ghani, simply will not be able to hold on to Kabul, much less the whole of Afghanistan, and will likely meet the same fate as his earlier predecessor Mohammad Najibullah Ahmadzai at the hands of the Taliban.  Further, it is appearing more likely that this will not just be a Taliban victory, but may be completed under the unified banner of ISIL. Read more

US Continues Dangerous False Narrative about Assad’s use of Chemical Weapons

The US again jumped to conclusions about the latest alleged use of chemical weapons in Syria and immediately condemned President Assad’s government.  However, Washington has no way to immediately verify the attack was indeed a chemical attack and even less ability to know who was actually responsible for the attack.  Nonetheless, this didn’t stop the White House calling for serious consequences and the use of force against the Syrian government.  In short, President Obama is ready to launch the US into another disastrous, undeclared, and unconstitutional war based on the word of Al Qaeda avowed terrorists that have everything to gain from conducting a false flag attack that brings the US into the war on their side.

To understand the big picture, one must understand how the actions in Syria relate to Israel’s strategic goal of eliminating the Iranian regime.  Just as we have repeatedly reported, Israel is reluctant to launch an attack against Iran without first securing its northern flank.  To do this, Israel conspired with its allies to significantly degrade Iran’s proxy army Hezbollah and its ally Syria via the use of a proxy army made up of global jihadists.  This group of Al Qaeda avowed jihadists, which now form the bulk of the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA) is backed by the US and regional allies opposed to Iran such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar.  This plan was intended to depose President Assad and weaken Hezbollah without drawing the US and Israel directly into the war.  However, the plan fell apart as Assad’s forces coupled with Hezbollah fighters began to drive back and defeat the FSA in battle after battle.  As each day goes by, the situation for the FSA has become more critical and has thrown the Israeli war plan into chaos just as Iran’s nuclear program is approaching what Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu describes as his “red line.”  Set against this diminishing timeline, Israel and the US are desperate to finish off Assad and justify the US entrance into the war with Syria.  Syria must fall because it is an essential part of strategy for drawing the US into a greater conflict with Iran, which has been the final goal all along.  As such, the US and Israel have resorted to false flag attacks and recycled the chemical weapon scare tactics used previously to involve the US in a war against Iraq.

The fact that the US and Israel are already engaged in a war against Iran and the Syrian front is just the last stage before an actual overt war against Iran is launched.  The truth doesn’t matter to the Obama Administration just as long as the narrative suits its political agenda to entangle the US into a war with Iran.  Some will be quick to point out the sources contradicting Washington’s narrative are Russian and thus somehow are not credible, but it is also very reputable elements within the United Nations inspection teams that have called into question the origin of these alleged chemical attacks.  Make no mistake, Israel will follow through with its plan to destroy Iran and President Obama has proven incapable of resisting the powerful lobbying behind the scenes.  Furthermore, if President Obama fails to involve the US military in Syria to deliver decisive ends that satisfy Israel, Israel will unilaterally launch an attack against Iran that will, as we have repeatedly warned, force Washington’s hand into entering the war unprepared.

In the coming days and weeks, we as a nation again enter a “red zone.”  The coming months will be a time of great instability, upheaval, and potentially large scale war in the Middle East.  The US doesn’t do this out of its own best interests or national security, but as a result of powerful alien lobbyist elements within our midst that demand the destruction of Iran.  Even though the major news agencies have all but ignored Iran in recent months, Israel has not.  Ignoring the situation between Iran and Israel has not made the situation go away even if the average America has long forgot the war propaganda about red lines, centrifuges, and enrichment.  In fact, the situation has been quickly approaching a major break point where either the US acts, or Israel potentially launches a tactical nuclear strike launched from submarines now stationed in the Persian Gulf and arguably in the Black Sea.

In the run up to what will become a strategic disaster for the US, expect more false flag attacks that are used to justify increasing US involvement in Syria.  Both Tel Aviv and Washington are acutely aware that the rebels will lose if the US doesn’t become decisively involved in the civil war now.  This will include special operations forces on the ground and air strikes that will be launched under what will be named a “no fly zone.”  The Israelis have already been launching air strikes inside of Lebanon as retaliation for alleged rocket attacks, but have used this as cover to test the status of Syrian air defenses in preparation for air strikes in Syria.  Only an immediate and massive public outcry against another war will we stand a chance of averting America’s overt entrance into another war that will be far more costly than the war in Iraq and Afghanistan.  Both Republicans and Democrats should stand united on this front.  The Democrats and media in particular, which doggedly attacked George Bush over the war in Iraq, need to unite against this war unless they wish to be proved total hypocrites and blind stooges of President Obama.  The military too needs to speak out and register its protest to its involvement in what will prove to be an unwinnable war fought for foreign interests at the expense of American blood and treasure.  Please call, email, and write your elected representatives immediately and say no to any further US involvement in the Syrian Civil War.

 

By Guiles Hendrik

August 24, 2013.

All rights reserved.

 

For more reading:

http://rt.com/news/libya-syria-weapons-rebels-117/

http://rt.com/news/syria-chemical-catastrophic-uk-932/

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/07/20137920448105510.html

Syrian Rebels Continue to Lose Ground against Government Forces

Image from video posted by Ugarit News

Syrian government forces reinforced by Lebanese Hezbollah forces have been consolidating their control over the strategic rebel held district of Homs, which is Syria’s third largest city.  Homs has been controlled by rebels in part since 2011.  The recent military success by the Syrian military and Hezbollah fighters has left the rebels in retreat and Washington’s battle plan for Iran disintegrating.

As of July, Syrian government forces appeared to be on the verge of retaking most of the northern neighborhoods in Homs and were continuing to advance on the remaining crumbling rebel positions.  In addition to its symbolic value, Homs is a strategic lynchpin in Syria.  Homs controls the main highways from Damascus to the north and the coast.  The government offensive has already successfully expelled rebels from a 13th century landmark mosque in Khaldiyeh the rebels controlled for more than a year.  Previous to this, government forces captured the strategic town of Qusair near the Lebanon border in June.

The danger of these victories is not that Assad and his government forces will prevail, but that Washington and its allies will now be forced to take more drastic measures to make sure their Al Qaeda proxies are not defeated.  In light of this, it foreseeable that the White House will soon authorize more overt support to include providing military weapons and advisors to train rebel fighters outside of Syria in Turkey and Jordan.  However, it is unlikely this level of support will turn the tide in favor of the rebels.  Instead, for a rebel victory to be engineered, Washington will be forced to put Americans (most likely in the form of CIA and Special Forces) in Syria and institute a no-fly zone coupled with air strikes on Syrian government targets.  False flag attacks and copious applications of war propaganda will be necessary to justify these ill-fated operations.   This action will cement the US entrance into another undeclared, unconstitutional war that historians will point to as a disastrous misstep in US Foreign Policy that will ultimately eclipse the US strategic defeats in Iraq and Afghanistan.

By Guiles Hendrik

July 29, 2013

For more information:

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/07/201372817314489545.html

The war with Iran has begun: Israel’s Battle Plan for Iran

 

Media and intelligence reports suggest war between Israel and Iran appears imminent within the coming months, but in fact, has already begun.  Perhaps, this reality has been completely missed because the media convinced itself and the public the opening salvos for an Israeli attack on Iran would look like an air force bombing raid of Iranian nuclear installations.  We have pointed out for years this air force centric battle plan has been a deception operation as a true bombing raid would be too likely to fail and not achieve decisive long term effects.  Further, a limited Osirak type raid would leave the Israeli homeland completely vulnerable to organized and sustained retaliatory strikes.  Contrary to how the ill-informed pundits thought this war would play out, Israel has a much better war plan to support “its interests” that is unfolding as you read this piece. Whether or not the United States willing joins the war will affect this battle plan and impact “how bad” it will be for the U.S.  The best case would be an immediate move by Washington to decisively prevent war between Israel and Iran, but that seems highly unlikely now.  As such, one must assume the U.S. maintains its current policy towards Iran and will attempt to stay on the sidelines “hoping” Israel won’t attack.  Under those conditions, the following Israeli battle plan will likely be executed within the next 4-8 weeks.

The basic plan is as follows:

  • Phase I:  Prepare the populace and the military for war.  Obtain needed intelligence of the battlefield and attempt to build war sentiment inside Israel and the U.S.  Finalize acquisition of weapons systems and ordnance.  Place the military on a war footing.
  • Phase II:  Reduce the near border threat and open a safe flight path to Iran.  Using asymmetric means, degrade Hezbollah and Syria to a minimal threat incapable of sustained, coordinated, state level military operations.  Attempt to leverage the presence of chemical and biological weapons as well as friction with Turkey, a NATO member, to draw the U.S. into the war early.
  • Phase III:  Launch a surprise false flag attack on Iran that appears to emanate from the Americans.  The strike will include initially non-attributable electronic attacks, cyber warfare, and submarine launched missiles.  Limited commando raids may also take place.
  • Phase IV:   Using the plausible deniability of who conducted the initial attack, leverage the Iranian confusion to bait them into attacking the U.S. and forcing America into the war if it hasn’t already joined.

*Note:  If Iran responds discriminately only against Israel and the U.S. is not pulled into the conflict, this will be the signal for immediate, large scale follow-on attacks.  This is necessary to mitigate the potential damage inside Israel from retaliatory strikes.

  • Phase V:  Bring war to rapid closure and hand-off the conflict to the U.S military within 30 days.  If Iran continues to retaliate against Israel, Israel will respond with further massive missile strikes with follow-on strikes by the air force using manned and unmanned platforms.  The Israeli military will relentlessly attack Iran to inflict maximum damage and casualties so as to force U.S. intervention and or the U.N. to broker a cease fire. 

*Should Iran, Hezbollah, or Syria attempt to or actually retaliate using chemical or biological weapons, if Iran is able to heavily attack Israel successfully, or if Israel is unable to achieve its goals in the reduction of Iranian nuclear facilities, Israel plans to use nuclear weapons to achieve victory and protect its homeland.

To understand Israel’s actual battle plan formulation, one must first turn the chessboard around and understand Israel’s goals, perceptions, and capabilities in the manner Israeli decision makers see the pieces.  Foremost in their minds has to be the preservation of the Jewish State.  Any limited attack that achieved indecisive goals, but risked the homeland would not be suitable.  Second, Israeli leadership, specifically, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, perceives Iran as an existential threat that must be destroyed at all costs.  However, Netanyahu is clever and cunning enough to know better than getting into a fair fight with Iran.

Israel’s national capabilities, which relative to other Middle Eastern countries are immense, include a first rate military and renowned air force.  Their navy has also made great strides and has spent a massive amount of money acquiring latest generation retrofitted German-diesel submarines capable of launching long range missiles.  Respective of strategic weapons, Israel has what is believed to be a significant stockpile of nuclear weapons that could provide deterrent, first, and second strike options during a war.  These nuclear weapons could be delivered by aircraft, drones, or missiles launched from the land, sea, or air.  Further, Israel has demonstrated an advanced technological arsenal that includes electronic and cyber warfare capabilities, missile defense systems, surveillance and reconnaissance assets, and is a world leader in the design and production of drones and other autonomous systems.  Nonetheless, Israel still has a very limited power projection capability beyond its shores.  It also has limited natural resources, finances, and industrial capabilities.  Perhaps most worrisome when assessing a war of attrition with Iran, Israel is acutely aware it has relatively limited land area and a small population.  This means any successful deployment of Iranian weapons such as missiles and rockets are more likely to cause significant casualties and damage and quickly reduce the public will and support for a sustained.  In short, Israel can’t domestically endure significant military damage and neither can its elected leaders.  Netanyahu is keenly aware of the fate of former Prime Minister Olmert after the failed 2006 Lebanon War.  Finally, Israel has a powerful international support base of wealthy elites and routinely demonstrates the significant power of its lobbying infrastructure to maneuver political will inside the United States.

Next, one must understand Iran’s capabilities in a similar manner.  Iran’s regime is most afraid of losing power and inversely, is most concerned with maintaining power.  Maintaining power, much like in other countries is predicated on polarizing the masses and using religion as a patriotic call to national defense.  In Iran’s case, painting Israel and the U.S. as the enemy is a relatively easy case in light of the repeated wars on Muslim lands and peoples, three decades of crippling sanctions, assassination of its scientists, and repeatedly addressing Iran as an existential evil threat that must be destroyed.  This demonization of Israel and the U.S. is woven intricately into the fiber of Iran and has no doubt radicalized much of its population.  Iran has used this fervor to build up a substantial military that has grown more and more independent of foreign assistance and military hardware sales.  This has been the result of adapting to decades of sanctions and has to some degree inoculated Iran from further effects of sanctions.  Iran’s large population and land area make it more able to endure and absorb repeated attacks.   Iran also has significant reserves of both oil and gas and enjoys the disproportionate political sway it gains by influencing the global economy.  Regarding Iran’s military, it has a large pool of conscripts, a substandard air force, and inferior weapons technology.  However, Iran has learned from the U.S. and Israeli wars over the last decade and has made itself a much more capable enemy.  It has developed a dispersed, decentralized, civilian militia capable or harassing any occupying military endlessly.  It has also developed robust anti-access technologies to include many anti-ship missiles, naval mines, small fast attack missile boats, significantly improved air defense systems, and surface to surface missiles with significantly improved targeting and range.  Iran also maintains stockpiles of both chemical and biological weapons that could be used in retaliation for an attack.  Most worrisome to Israel though is Iran’s development of a 5th column in Lebanon consisting of Hezbollah, which is reportedly to now be rearmed with hundreds of thousands of shorter range rockets and anti-tank weapons and a client state in Syria with a fully capable conventional military sitting on Israel’s border.

Using the above as a general framework to begin piecing together assumptions about an Israeli war plan, it should be clear that a prolonged war is not in Israel’s interests, an invasion or occupation of Iran would be impossible, and Israel can’t afford to endure prolonged attacks domestically.  Defensively, although Israel’s missile defense systems could likely shield it from most long range Iranian missiles, it would likely be overwhelmed by a massive launch of rockets and missiles from Hezbollah.  A Syrian supported front on Israel’s border would also open a fight bigger than Israel is willing to undertake and allow Iran to continuously resupply Hezbollah.  Iran’s anti-access technologies are not much of a threat to Israel since Israel is located far beyond the range of these weapons, but Iran’s air defense system must be contended with if a manned strike is to be successful.  Israel also can’t afford risking the possibility of an Iranian chemical or biological retaliation.  As such, Hezbollah and Syria must be neutralized before any attack could take place to remove the immediate threat to Israel’s homeland and Iran’s retaliatory capabilities in respect to Israel must be eliminated.  Israel must also seek out a plan that enables its piloted aircraft to successfully make round trip sorties to and from Iran.  Note that how Iran’s response affects “Israel” in this calculus is not the same as how Iran’s response affects the “U.S.”  This is an ominous observation for the U.S.

Moving forward and building out the attack plan, a basic order of operations can be established.  First, the homeland must be prepared to endure retaliatory strikes and the military assets must be in place.  This includes generating the propaganda and domestic support for a war as well as developing and procuring the proper military technology, equipment, and weapons.  Jointly, diplomatic avenues must be exhausted and low-level covert war options must have had a chance to work.  Finally, a thorough intelligence preparation of the battlefield must have been completed.  Second, Hezbollah and Syria’s ability to jointly wage war on Iran’s behalf must be at least neutralized in a way to not spark an outright kinetic war with Iran.  Israel cannot prosecute a war with Iran successfully without first eliminating this close border threat.  Third, Iran must then be attacked violently by surprise in a total fashion that prevents any possibility of it being able to respond with missiles capable of striking Israel.  Fourth, Israel must leverage this initial surprise attack to pull the U.S. into the war.  This will be necessary to achieve more decisive long term effects on Iran’s nuclear development and minimal expense to Israel in manpower and money.  Finally, Israel must bring the hostilities to a rapid closure.  This means either handing off the sustained large scale campaign to the United States or prosecuting further attacks against Iran to increase the amount of damage done and forcing a peace treaty or ceasefire.  This final phase could go as far as delivering a final decisive blow using nuclear weapons (or the threat of it to make sure the U.S. finishes their fight) if Iran has somehow managed to inflict severe damage on Israel proper.

Now that a clear order of operations has been established, it is a relatively simple process of plugging in Israel’s capabilities to their proper place and adding a dash of strategy and deception to achieve surprise.  To be specific, this war plan has already been implemented and is under way.  In fact, we are nearing the end of Phase II.  The destabilization of Syria is the Phase II answer for how to take down Iran’s capabilities to threaten Israel at its border without immediately provoking a war.  Rest assured, under no other lesser circumstances would Israel allow Sunni backed jihadists to overthrow Assad, a ruler that Israel has maintained an awkward détente with for years.  This would be trading a tolerable for horrible.  Phase II will now continue until Syria is assessed to have been rendered incapable of organized, state level, sustained military operations against Israel.  The residual jihadists fighting amongst themselves like in Libya for power will be used as an excuse later to deal with Syria in totality after Iran is attacked and the U.S. is suckered into the war (assuming the U.S. can’t be suckered into the war sooner using Syria as a pretext).  Still though, Israel doesn’t believe Hezbollah will be completely neutralized by this.  Instead, they project that Hezbollah’s ability to sustain combat operations will be extremely degraded without Syria to funnel supplies and support from Iran to them, but still will have the ability to launch attacks for 3-4 weeks.  To mitigate the residual threat from Hezbollah, Israel has implemented Iron Dome, an air defense system capable of shooting down rockets and missiles launched from Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon and Syria.  Israel has also developed in-depth civilian preparedness programs to include alert systems, bunkers, drills, and rapid response capabilities to mitigate any damage from any attacks that are successful.

Phase III of the war is yet to begin, but will likely correlate with the neutralization of Syria before the fall elections in the U.S. This window is critical because Netanyahu knows that any strike before the election essentially forces President Obama to support it or risk losing the election.  Obama has to pull votes of Southern Baptists and conservative Christians from Romney, and most importantly, must have Jewish support in the form of money and votes; especially, in a swing state like Florida, to win.  Should Obama leave Israel hanging, it will open him up to massive attacks from the neo-conservative Zionist Romney as weak and not supportive.  As such, Obama could be cornered into either actively taking part in a war or unwillingly being forced into Israel’s war.  Both situations are catastrophic for the U.S., but good for Israel.  If Netanyahu waits, he risks losing his opportunity to pull the U.S. into the war; especially, if Obama is reelected, which looks to be the case based on current polling numbers.

Phase III will begin the actual kinetic phase of operations against Iran.  It will start with an unprecedented electronic attack that includes wide spread cyber-attacks, disinformation and deception operations, jamming, and potentially the used of targeted electronic pulse weapons to blind and destroy the situational awareness of Iran’s command and control elements.  Nearly simultaneously, Israel will launch its largest missile attack in the nation’s history.  It will include the full range of missiles launched from the air, ground, and sea.  Jericho ballistic missiles with modified heavy payloads and submarine launched missiles will be some of the primary weapons used.  Submarines will likely launch first.  Israel has secretly poured billions of U.S. tax dollars into the development of its submarines and their launch capabilities.  This has not been by accident.  In fact, tracking the location of Israel’s submarines will be one of the best indicators for when Israel is about to strike.  The U.S. should put a premium on shadowing these subs over any other submarine missions currently on-going.  In fact, there is a reasonable argument that the U.S. should use whatever force is necessary to prevent Israeli subs from launching an attack due to the dire consequences it will have for America.  Israel will also likely use a mix of attack drones to carry out some of the initial wave of attacks.  Israel may also use an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) weapon to destroy Iranian electronics and black out their grid.  This could come in the form of a high altitude nuclear detonation.

Phase IV will be executed in parallel with Phase III and leverage the ambiguity and the violence of the initial phase of electronic warfare and submarine strikes to hopefully bait Iran into incorrectly assessing the attack as coming from the U.S.  This is likely as it will be a very advanced attack, primarily submarine launched, and have no humans initially involved.  This looks like a classic sterile American type attack and gives Israel plausible deniability while confusing the Iranian decision cycle.  This false flag, deception operation is classic Israeli military doctrine and emblematic of Israel’s past military operations.  If Iran perceives the attack to be from the U.S., its response is much more likely to be extreme in that it either does nothing and capitulates or retaliates broadly at American and Arab interests in the region instead of Israeli targets.  Military bases, American warships, and oil infrastructure are the most likely targets for Iran and would bring both the U.S. and Iran’s neighbors such as Saudi Arabia into the war against it.  This would allow Israel to bow out of the fight it started successfully.  Further, the operational pause in the Iranian decision cycle allows Israel to assess how it completes Phase III and moves to Phase V.  If Iran does nothing, mission accomplished.  If Iran retaliates against the U.S. and it is clear the Americans will enter the war, mission accomplished.  However, if Iran retaliates against Israel selectively and or the U.S. doesn’t get immediately into the war, Israel must immediately move to mitigate any possible retaliatory damage Iran can inflict.  This means that Israel will complete Phase III with clearly attributable Jericho missile strikes and strikes from drones against a much broader range of targets to include Iranian missile sites, command and control centers, and oil infrastructure in addition to nuclear facilities.

Moving into Phase V, Israel will again attempt to pull the U.S. into the war if it did not succeed in Phases III and IV.  They will most likely threaten to have to use nuclear weapons to finish it or start a bigger war with Syria that risks entire regional destabilization.  In exchange for Israel restraining its attacks, America will enter.  If not, Israel will move into their least desirable portion of the entire operation and begin manned airstrikes against Iranian targets by transiting Syrian airspace.  Israel must plan on losing some of its aircraft and crew during this phase, but ultimately, they will be able to successfully hit targets in in the north and west of Iran.  Jericho missiles will have to attack the more distant targets if the U.S. failed to enter the war.  Once Israel has exhausted its target list and U.S. supplied heavy ordnance penetrators, Israel will enter into United Nations peace negotiations, which undoubtedly will be in full swing to try and stop the “humanitarian suffering.”

The ominous caveat to this five phase war plan comes if from the outset, Israel knows that the U.S. will not get involved, is unable to achieve mission goals, or if Iran, Syria, or Hezbollah appears to be about to retaliate with chemical or biological weapons.  In any of the three scenarios listed, Israel may very well use nuclear weapons to achieve its goals.  The saying no plan survives first contact is absolutely gospel and for Israel, that means they must have a worst case scenario plan at the ready.  Dangerously, their worst case also equals our worst case from an American perspective.  Any war in the Middle East is going to be awful, but a nuclear war will be catastrophic.  Nonetheless, the Israelis see it as acceptable for their nation’s survival even though it probably also means the end of life as we know it in the U.S. as the global economy collapses and we are forced to try and contain the literal fallout of “their” war.

The above war plan is the baseline for Israel’s planning against Iran that they have desperately tried to keep secret.  What Americans must realize, including both the President and his challenger Mitt Romney, is that Israel’s plan for war is fundamentally designed for Israeli interests.  The battle plan does not take into account any equities that the U.S. or other Arab countries may have when it comes to getting caught in the crossfire.  Should the U.S. voluntarily involve itself from the beginning, the battle plan will decidedly shift to take into account American interests and capabilities, but will still be horrible for the U.S. and not achieve decisive long term results.  Still though, the hope that we could control the chaos better may be enough to sucker America into the fight unilaterally on Israel’s behalf.  President Obama, if seriously threatened by Romney, may also opt to create a convenient crisis before the election to distract the voters and spin it to his benefit.  However, should the U.S. be forced into a surprise war with Iran through Israeli deception and a potential false flag attack, the U.S. would suffer much worse and achieve even less decisive results.  Either way, the cost of a war is much too great for Americans to accept.  This is not America’s war.  American policy MUST look out for American interests first.  This means Israel must be stopped from starting a war that will cause global disaster for the U.S.

Israeli submarines will launch the initial strike against Iran.