The following summary of recent world events is decidedly negative. This is not due to overt pessimism as much as the facts are just plain bad. In fact, I didn’t even include events like the effects of Hurricane Mathew, the attack on our warship off the coast of Yemen, and the assassination of more police around the US. The world is not getting any safer and indicators are all pointing to things worsening as we move into late fall and winter. The following are major events you should be taking note of with short comments.
- Situation in Syria: Syrian government forces backed by Iran and Russia continue to pound Aleppo and are nearing a strategic breakthrough. All actors in Syria recognize that if Assad is able to recapture Aleppo from the Islamic extremists it will be the beginning of the end for Washington’s terrorist proxies in Syria. As such, there is panic from Doha to Washington. The terrorist coalition knows that it is now or never for major intervention, which may force the White House to order direct strikes against the Syrian regime, which undoubtedly will be countered by Russian retaliation. This creates the potential for a rapid outbreak of a major regional war that could go global. We have effectively arrived at the point I have repeatedly forecasted would occur in Syria where either Moscow or Washington accepts a massive strategic policy defeat or there is a major war…perhaps both. This is inescapable at this point. The best case scenario is if the US backs out by aligning with Russia to defeat ISIL and negotiate a peace deal that leaves the regime in place for now. This is highly unlikely and if Hillary Clinton is elected, all but impossible.
- I am forecasting that the US will continue to spread false anti-Assad and anti-Russian propaganda to drum up war sentiment in the US to prepare the public for the announcement airstrikes against Syrian military positions. If the neo-cons within the establishment get their way the air strikes will happen, but there will be an immediate cost to US forces. Russia will defend its positions on the ground and engage any US forces that directly threaten Russian lives and interests. In this event, it is possible we will witness the first combat losses of US Fifth Generation Fighters, which Washington is rightfully terrified will occur. The loss of these jets will show everyone how much superiority the US has lost against countries like China under Obama. This will jeopardize the multi-billion dollar acquisition program that has been riddled with corruption, failures, and delays. As such, it is far more likely Washington will lead with cruise missile and drone strikes that are easier to deny and hide if they fail to achieve their objectives, but are also much less likely to achieve decisive results.
Over the past two weeks, I have released a series on prepper relocation that completely changes the old conventional theories that drove prepper relocation strategies (See: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/?s=prepper+relocation). The key takeaway you learned from the research is that you do not need to relocate to a remote region to survive. In fact, it is actually counterproductive to be too isolated. Now that you know relocation to a place like Idaho is no longer necessary and even counterproductive, where are the best places to relocate? The good news is that you have far greater options depending on what you are prepping for in light of the results of my research. In today’s conclusion to the five part series, I will introduce you to both domestic and international options that are readily available to anyone looking for a thorough, full spectrum relocation strategy that will work even under the most extreme situations. Read more
One of the single biggest mistakes preppers make is that they buy into the myth that relocating to a small region in the North West corner of the United States is their “best” chance of survival. As you now know from my previous three articles in this series, this theory is inaccurate and is not based on any sound research. Further, it causes people to unnecessarily incur significant additional costs and difficulties when developing their preparedness plans. However, what you still may not know is that there is a large body of empirical evidence that repeatedly demonstrates people living in isolated, remote areas are often at the greatest risk during wide spread social chaos and collapse. Not coincidentally, these people also suffer some of the most hardships. Therefore, with respect to our contemporary situation in the United States, preppers relocating to Idaho with the explicit intent to escape an oppressive government and or are planning to escape widespread instability during a systemic collapse of the system might very well be signing their death warrants. Instead, contrary to contemporary prepping strategies, it would be better to be closer if not in the midst of a more densely populated area.
I understand what I just wrote probably sent many readers into anger and shock. Nonetheless, it is far better to get the right information now then to continue along a misguided path to destruction. No doubt, some readers will immediately discount what I am about to say because they are blinded by their own preconceived biases. I cannot help those people. Thankfully, the majority of my readers are intelligent thinking people that will quickly grasp the conclusions to be drawn from the evidence and modify their preparedness strategies accordingly. In fact, don’t take my word alone, I invite everyone to conduct their own independent research into our prepping assumptions and disseminate their findings.
My theories seem counterintuitive to the premise that the farther from people you are, the farther from harm you are. This is because the basic assumptions of this safety distance premise are flawed. As the theory goes, in the event of a collapse or major catastrophe, being located away from people in a remote, self-sufficient redoubt is your best chance. I have already discussed why the 300 mile rule is a useless metric and that the notion of a “Golden Horde” of refugees fleeing a city and destroying all in their wake is equally unfounded and completely untrue. The last pillar of this theory is that being isolated conveys additional survival benefits. To test it accurately, one must evaluate case studies from around the world and then correctly apply them to a realistic scenario domestically. Read more
Before I post Part IV, I want to pause and recap the huge amount of ground already covered in parts one and two of this series (See links below to read and catch up). Previously, I showed that the most common assumptions preppers base their relocation decisions on are completely false and actually counterproductive to outright dangerous. The research I presented is groundbreaking within our community because it completely overturned the very foundation of what many have spent a lifetime basing their preps around. Understandably, some people within the prepper community have received the new information as radical heresy and immediately took to the defense. When new information is presented to any community, this visceral reaction is to be expected. After all, it challenged their entire basis for their preps and in this case, proved that much of their foundational assumptions were based on bad information. Read more
In part one of our series on “Prepper Relocation,” I directly addressed a common false logic amongst preppers that led to bad conclusions regarding why one should relocate to Idaho. Specifically, I challenged the idea that a bunker was a viable long term survival strategy for a major catastrophe many prep for such as nuclear war. Simply establishing a second residence in a modern first world location like Santiago, Singapore, or New Zealand offer far better options for survival, both physically and economically, than hiding in a hole while a nuclear war is carried out above you. Today, I continue the slaughter of the sacred cows and challenge the merits of relocating to a site far from other people. As I previously discussed, relocation isn’t a subject to take lightly. It may be the single most important decision a prepper makes and therefore any plan should be heavily vetted before time and money is invested in executing it. Therefore, one must consider counter arguments to contemporary “expert” recommendations. By leveraging the information in this series, you will be far better prepared to develop a personalized answer to what truly is you “best prepper place to relocate.”
Contemporary prepper logic states that the farther your relocation site is from dense centers of population, the better. In fact, the magic number often touted is that you must be at least 300 miles from any major population center. However, is this really the case? This is very important because if 300 miles is accurate, it severely constrains your relocation options. If it is not a valid constraint, then suddenly you have many good options for relocation depending on the specific scenario you are prepping for. As such, let’s examine what that conclusion is premised upon. Breaking the theory down, you have two main hypotheses to vet. The first is that 300 miles provides a necessary and adequate buffer from an urban center. The second is that from said urban area a horde of starving refugees will emerge and overrun your redoubt.
Let me be the first to tell you neither hypothesis constituting this prepper theory, which to date has been held up as prepper law, is valid. Read more
I routinely read articles online where individuals pontificate about where the best places for preppers to live or relocate too are. What I don’t usually see is any real cognitive effort to do a realistic analysis and assessment. This should be a red flag. Selecting your relocation site is one of the most important decisions a prepper must make. It is too important to be made on hearsay and opinions. Therefore, I am going to question that contemporary prepper relocation logic. I am going to debunk common myths and offer better alternatives that will help you develop a personalized answer to what truly is you “best prepper place to relocate.” When this series is complete, you will be armed with critical information necessary for identifying your ideal relocation spot. Don’t be surprised if after this eye opening series your philosophy on how you previously evaluated and envisioned your relocation site looks completely different.
Most preparedness “experts” would define the common prepper relocation logic is to find a place as far as possible from other people in an area still suitable for an off-grid, self-sustaining lifestyle. This implies the location has ample water, good soil, and a good growing season. Add a couple wild card factors like being outside the blast radius and fallout pattern of a nuclear detonation and avoiding known earthquake prone areas and most preppers conclude that Idaho is the choice destination. James Wesley Rawles, a man well known and respected throughout the prepper community and a recognized expert on the field is a big advocate of this relocation option. In Rawles’ defense, Idaho may indeed be a good location for some preppers for some reasons. However, Rawles and many others are basing many of their primary assumptions on outdated information, obsolete tactics and techniques, and generally old school logic that when tested in real world scenarios, fails. I don’t take this indictment lightly. If we get this wrong, we die and that is why it is so important we first question some of the fundamental assumptions the conventional prepper relocation plan is based upon. Read more
Tanks in the street in Turkey. Image Source: http://www.trbimg.com/img-5789788e/turbine/la-fg-turkey-coup-pictures-20160715-028/900/900×506
A White House petition was generated that gathered over 100,000 signatures to label the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement a terrorist organization. In response, the White House stated it didn’t have the power to label anyone a terrorist organization. Although, the White House clearly was ignoring the petition, be glad they did ignore it. Irrespective of whether or not you support BLM or not, declaring it a terrorist organization would have been a huge mistake and disaster for freedom and liberty. Whoever started the petition was probably good intentioned, but if you considered for a moment the true implications of what you were asking for, you would realize you are a complete idiot. Read more
Banned in Massachusetts: “Compliant Rifles” Image Source: http://thearmsguide.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Black-Rain-Ordinance-NY-compliant-AR-15-newsletter-image.jpg
Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey announced Wednesday that she will enforce a ban on the sale of what she called “copycat” assault-style weapons, effective immediately. This new interpretation of gun law obliterates a decades old precedent on “compliant guns.” Not only did it make tens if not hundreds of thousands of weapons in Massachusetts illegal, but it will soon be copied in other anti-gun states and cities across the nation. Make no mistake, the anti-gun movement is alive and well and ready to seize every last firearm in our nation if given the change. Read more
al-Sadr Poster. Source: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/para/images/al-sadr_madhi-army_040915-a-3133c-041.jpg
Those of us that fought in Iraq are well aware of the potent militia force, known at the time as the Mahdi Army, controlled by the Iraqi Shiite Cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. Al-Sadr is a leading Shiite figure in Iraq and controls a militia with tens of thousands of fighters. He is also viewed as the leader of Iran’s proxy force inside of Iraq. Al-Sadr’s fighters at one point during the Iraq War became one of the most potent enemies facing America and inflicted a considerable amount of casualties on the US. Now al-Sadr is calling again for his followers to attack US forces in Iraq “fighting” ISIL. His call for war against the “American Occupiers” signals an ominous policy change in Iraq that will result in dead Americans and could trigger another full scale war with the US. (See: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-usa-idUSKCN0ZX0XL )
Al-Sadr’s instructions to attack US troops in Iraq will not go unanswered by his followers. Unlike other groups in Iraq, al-Sadr’s militia is motivated and well-armed, trained, and equipped. Read more
On a short note, I would like to point out a bit of hypocrisy and genius. Throughout both wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the US military has been shackled and hamstrung by the necessity to cause no collateral damage. The theory went that causing any “unnecessary” damage would alienate the population leading to the US losing the war. Well, at least myself and a few hundred thousand other American servicemen repeatedly tested this and found the theory to be false, but no one at the War College has mentioned it. In short, worrying about collateral damage only helps the enemy and increases friendly casualties. Oh, and did I mention we have lost every war that we employed a strategy of limited collateral damage? Read more
While the world has been distracted by the quickening of the dissent into global chaos, it was easy to miss a major even that occurred this week. Russia delivered the first batch of S-300 missiles to Iran. The missiles were the last component needed to make their previously delivered S-300 Air Defense System fully operational. This may signal Russia is moving forward with a more aggressive foreign policy to counter the US military’s growing list of provocative actions. Further, two countries did not miss this major geostrategic event. Israel and Saudi Arabia have been carefully watching and monitoring Iran for this event, which may prove to be a red line that at least Israel is unwilling to allow Iran to cross. If true, the clock is about to run out for Israel to take unilateral action or be at the mercy of warming US foreign policy to Iran. This could mean the outbreak of WWIII.
Make no mistake, the introduction of a fully operational S-300 Air Defense System in Iran alters the balance of power in the Middle East and Israel and Saudi Arabia know it. It is possible Israel has developed counter measures to the S-300, but the mere presence of the system alone would fundamentally limit Israel’s ability to attack Iran’s nuclear sites. Whether or not Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reached a mutually acceptable deal on the sale and delivery of the system to Iran is unknown, but my guess is Israel protested vigorously. Both the Netanyahu and Putin know that the air defense sale will significantly strengthen and embolden Iran, which is a sworn enemy of Israel. Further, Iran is seen as a threat by the rest of the Sunni dominated Gulf-Arab countries. Therefore, one must ask if this could trigger and war and if so, why Russia would finalize the sale and delivery.
I have previously warned and detailed why an operational S-300 Air Defense System is a major event that could trigger a war in the Middle East that goes global. (See: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2015/08/29/russian-transfer-of-s-300-air-defense-system-may-force-israeli-to-initiate-war-with-iran-before-winter/). Read more
After the assassination of three police officers in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, Fox News began broadcasting comments from various “conservative” commentators demanding that Ohio’s open carry law be suspended in Cleveland for the duration of the Republic Convention. This was a very scary precedent that Fox News seemed all too happy to endorse. Thankfully, Ohio Governor John Kasich denied the request on quite legitimate grounds. However, I fear something more insidious is afoot.
The mere consideration that laws protecting basic Constitutional Rights should be suspended is terrifying. Let’s consider the precedent dictatorial police union leaders are setting by calling for the suspension of open carry in Ohio. First of all, those calling for the ban base their demand for emergency powers on the fact three police officers over a thousand miles away were killed in a nation of over 320 million people. If the bar in our nation for the institution of martial law is the death of three officers, we will be living under military rule by August. What happened in Dallas and Baton Rouge is horrific. However, if anyone thinks that draconian actions and suspension of our rights will make things better, they are not just stupid, but treasonous. Our “rights” are not granted so they can be denied when we need them the most. That is precisely when things are dangerous and difficult.
Second, Governor Kasich does not have the power to pick and choose which laws he would like to see enforced or not. Can you imagine an executive such as President Obama with the ability to declare a state of emergency because of three deaths? I am sure Obama could have it arranged and would certainly love for the public to give him the authority to immediately and arbitrarily suspend whatever laws he doesn’t like. However, I am curious why anyone would think the man that has in a large part engineered and instigated this violence will do anything to stop it if he is awarded with more power? Read more
What can we expect next from Turkey? Although, elements of the coup are still holding out in Ankara, the coup leadership has allegedly fled Turkey by helicopter to Greece and asked for asylum. All indications now are that Erdogan will remain in power and the coup failed. This is bad news for Turkey and the rest of the world.
The immediate aftermath is clear. Erdogan’s security forces are now busy arresting a massive number of military personnel that are believed to have supported the coup. Once complete, this will consolidate Erdogan’s power over the military, which is has already deeply purged. Further, the failure of the coup due to “popular support” will only increase his power, which will accelerate Turkey’s descent into a Islamic State. In short, the idea of a secular Turkey died last night with the failed coup. Read more
Right now Ankara is being heavily bombed by aircraft. The targets appear to be government installations, but many of the bombs are dropping near the US Embassy and residences of American Diplomatic personnel. Reports are that Americans are in extreme danger during this fighting and are pinned down in their residences. The US Embassy at this time seems paralyzed and to date has done nothing to help other than to tell their employees to shelter in place and keep their batteries charged on their cell phones. I am sure they feel better after that astute advice as bombs are hitting nearby buildings and tanks are having shootouts in the streets.
I guess the CIA’s crack team of “clairvoyants” http://theweek.com/articles/635515/cia-team-clairvoyants failed to catch this one in advance. Perhaps, instead of hiring academics from the same pool of geniuses that got us into this mess they hired some true outside talent, this wouldn’t have caught them by surprise. However, seeing how incompetent the entire Obama Administration has been, it should come as no surprise their entire foreign policy just got wiped out. I just hope the violence ends quickly before we are dealing with another Benghazi.
By Guiles Hendrik
July 15, 2016
Events are still unfolding and it is too early to make any final conclusions. However, it is clear that a military coup in Turkey is underway to overthrow Erdogan. As of now, all indications support the CIA was completely caught off guard and US was happy with the Islamic leaning Erdogan’s administration. As such, it is unlikely the CIA had anything to do with the coup. However, there are some indications that Russian intelligence helped back the military coup to oust Erdogan. Did Putin just get the last laugh…again?
Russia-Turkey relations have warmed remarkably in the last two weeks, but was this because Russia knew change was coming? It is also quite coincidental that US Secretary of State John Kerry just met with his Russian counterpart. Further, Russia correctly recognized Turkey was continuing to back Islamic extremists in Syria against Russian interests. Turkey is/was preparing a major military offensive to back Islamic extremists to retake Aleppo from Syrian forces in hopes of forcing Syrian President Assad out of power. This was a Russian redline. However, Russia did not want a direct conflict with Turkey and potentially all of NATO. Nonetheless, Russia could not and would not allow Turkey to directly intervene in a decisive way as I previously warned. As such, Russia needed a way to counter Erdogan’s policy to overthrow Assad and stop it without a bigger war. I should also mention Putin didn’t take the fact Turkey shot down a Russian jet lightly.
Short of a major war, a coup became an attractive option for derailing Washington’s Middle East Policy, defeating ISIL/ISIS, and countering Turkish actions targeting Syria and its President Assad. This appears to have culminated in a Russia covert operation to support the overthrow of Erdogan. Whether or not the coup proves successful, one will look back and see this is probably the last best effort to return Turkey to a secular state and defeat radical Islamists hijacking the country with a minimal amount of bloodshed. I find it fitting that Erdogan, a radical extremist that has backed Islamic jihadists found himself potentially one run out of office, not Assad.
I can’t understate the implications of this coup. If successful, ISIL/ISIS will get hammered by unimpeded Russia, Kurdish, and Syrian forces. Without Turkey’s covert support, ISIL/ISIS will face near certain military defeat in Syria. However, if the coup fails, expect all hell to break out across the region. Erdogan will return and his crackdown and purges will murder many people as radical Islamists solidify their grip on power. Any hopes for a secular Turkey will be dead. ISIL/ISIS will also get the full backing of Turkey in Syria and it is likely this will lead to plummeting relations with Russia and an outbreak of a major war. This is just the beginning of an unraveling of the entire region. Events will continue spiral out of control across the globe and the US. I will continue to update on this as events unfold.
July 15, 2016
1040 EST: Erdogan begins purges of military and government officials. Rounds up and arrests thousands. White House clearly caught off guard and still remains without policy plan to move forward. Obama still hasn’t directly addressed nation and no official word from State Department on the safety and security of Americans trapped in Turkey during the failed coup.
0830 EST: Situation in Turkey stabilizing. Coup appears to have failed, but pockets of resistance remain in Ankara.
Saturday, July 16, 2016
1911 EST: Celebrations now reported in Adana and Istanbul. Fighting continues in Ankara.
1855 EST: People cheering and waving flags and honking horns in Istanbul.
1845 EST: Bombs are heard going off near US Embassy in Ankara.
1834 EST: Heavy explosions heard around Ankara. Aircraft bombing multiple locations. US personnel in danger and pinned down.
1817 EST: Turkish Police Headquarters under heavy attack by aircraft. US personnel in area at risk.
1745 EST: Turkish Armed Forces announce they have detained top Turkish officials to include Chief of Defense.
1710 EST: US Embassy in Ankara announces access points to both Istanbul Ataturk Intl and Sabiha Gokcen Intl Airports have been sealed. Flight ops at Istanbul Ataturk have been suspended. Flight ops at Sabiha Gokcen will be suspended within next 30 minutes. All personnel are urged to exercise extreme caution and heightened vigilance.
1631 EST: Military helicopters and jets confirmed over Ankara. Power has been cut to portions of the city.
1504 EST: Stand-by for updates as this situation is still developing, fluid, and uncertain. If events and reports coming out of Turkey are accurate, a major geopolitical crisis is unfolding in Europe.
Friday, July 15, 2016
July 15, 2016