ISIL’s Next Move after Mosul

The political timing of the assault on Mosul was no coincidence.  It was timed to correspond with the election and to be used as a diversion if necessary.  Ready to support their political masters, the complicit government propaganda outlets, otherwise known as the American Media Establishment, were right there to announce how everything was going well and success against ISIL was right around the corner.  Of course the media failed to investigate the valid claims that the US actually let ISIL evacuate the city before the assault.  This action allowed murderous terrorists to escape to kill more innocent people so that the US can claim it effectively “liberated” Mosul.  If the media was being honest, it would have long ago made it blatantly clear the US has no intention of defeating ISIL anytime soon and the Mosul operation is a sideshow.  Further, in spite of many fighters being allowed to escape, the Mosul operation still has not been going as planned.  The battle began to bog down almost as soon as it began, which was easily predictable.  Cutting through all of the cross talk and false information is tough and has left most people at a complete loss for what is going on.  To help, here is a quick summary of what happens next with respect to ISIL.

For starters, the bulk of ISIL fighters have escaped to fight another day.  This means many thousands more people will unnecessarily die in the Middle East, Europe, and the US.  The US, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and even Israel made sure this was the case because they still are desperately trying to salvage their diabolical scheme to overthrow Syrian President Assad.  They are not in the smallest way moved by the fact their actions have led to the death and displacement of millions.  Their hope is the bulk of these fighters will race to Aleppo to relieve their jihadist allies.  Some fighters undoubtedly will move quickly to try and reinforce Aleppo.  However, ISIL is out of the box and may have other plans.

Respective of Mosul, the operation is a joke.  Mosul wasn’t liberated at the height of the US War in Iraq and won’t be this time in any true sense.  Make no mistake though, the US backed forces will eventually plow their way into the city and declare victory, but that means literally nothing.  Mosul is an inherently Sunni city that is sympathetic to ISIL and for this reason ISIL never had to “invade” Mosul like the US backed Iraqi forces.  In fact, ISIL was always there, which is something the US media and military are too dumb to grasp.  Also, even though most of ISIL evacuated the city long ago, ISIL understands economy of force.  ISIL left a delaying force sufficient to bog down the Iraqi Army enough to force it to fully commit to the fight while its booby traps and snipers inflict maximum damage before bleeding back into the population and fleeing.  No sooner than the Iraqi Army plants their flag back in Mosul, they will fall under attack from all sides to keep their forces occupied and pinned down in Mosul.  This includes their American advisors.

If I was a military strategist, I would say this all sets the stage for the bulk of the Iraqi Army to be concentrated and committed to the assault on Mosul.  Knowing that the Iraqi Army is unwieldy, slow, and cannot easily redeploy, I would further assess this as a golden opportunity for ISIL to cut off the Iraqi Army while it is deployed in the North and retake large parts of Ramadi and Fallujah.  Worst case would be that ISIL has more fighters than estimated, bypasses Ramadi and Fallujah, and goes directly for Baghdad.  This blitzkrieg style assault has a real chance to overrun the Green Zone in an attack designed to decapitate the Iraqi government.  At least that is what I would do, but then, I am not the commander of ISIL.  In short, if ISIL has half sense and even a few thousand fighters remaining in Iraq, they have more than sufficient manpower to pick any city in Iraq outside of Mosul and overrun it.  No matter how much the press then tries to talk up the Mosul operation’s “success,” it will be seen as a total failure and the Iraqi government will look like clowns chasing their own shadows in circles trying to corner ISIL.  The Iraqi military simple does not have the force structure to secure all of the Sunni areas.  ISIL can indefinitely exploit this weakness through effective maneuver.  The slow pace at which the Iraqi Army moves and operates simply will never be able to catch up with a much more agile enemy.

The only way the Iraqis will have the forces to cover the bulk of the Sunni cities will be to fully enlist the help of its Shia population.  However, Baghdad knows this isn’t an option.  The moment Shia forces come in contact with Sunni neighborhoods; the locals turn against Baghdad and begin supporting ISIL.  This would seal the fate of Iraq.  Iraq would finally balkanize and the Shia population would fall into Tehran’s sphere of control.  Ironically, ISIL desires this same endstate so that it can exploit the gap and consolidate control over the Sunni areas.  My guess is that eventually both will get their wish setting the stage for a true battle royal.

To wrap things up, let’s just say I told you so and I told you so.  The Iraqis are literally tearing themselves apart while Iran only gets stronger.  The Persians to date have out maneuvered the Arabs at every point.  The US has completely failed to stop ISIL and has no plan on the table to change this situation.  Training and advising is simply a joke and does not work, but it certainly allows the US to publicly pretend it is “fighting ISIL.”  As I have tried to inform people all along, this is because the US has been covertly supporting these terrorists since their inception to support the goals of special interests controlling our government.  The result of all of this will be that Mosul becomes irrelevant.  It will have no bearing on the overall viability of ISIL beyond the fact that it will force them to concentrate in a new area.  The “War on Terror” will go on, you will be told that you must surrender more rights and give the government more power to protect you, and your quality of life will continue to deteriorate.

By Guiles Hendrik

October 25, 2016

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