The last week has witnessed some unprecedented changes across the Middle East. These events have moved the entire region closer to a major Sunni-Shia conflict. As such, it is important to review what has occurred and assess if this will lead to a major war. If so, it will have major strategic implications for the US so are you prepared? Read more
Archive for Terrorism
When I first heard of the deaths of US military personnel in Niger, I was saddened, but not surprised. Having no shame, the MSM took less than 48 hours to spin the events into a political debacle of legendary indecency. It began with the media providing a platform for a mentally deranged, utterly contemptible, and rather freakish Congress(woman?) from Florida to exploit a family’s grief. As that began to backfire on the Democrats, the propagandists within the MSM got their new talking points and began trying to equate the attack to some type of Benghazi cover-up. What they failed to mention in all of this spin was that there was an element of truth in that the soldiers’ deaths were actually directly related to the events that claimed the American lives in Benghazi. However, it wasn’t Trump’s fault; it was Obama’s. Read more
Well, tonight is the night. President Trump will officially own the war after his 9PM address to the nation tonight for better or worse. Will he pull us out? Will he create a mercenary army? Will it be a few thousand more troops and status quo? Will it be a drastically different strategy to achieve a decisive victory? No matter what the president decides, it will be our best window yet into whether or not the Deep State has seized full control of the White House.
Here is what we do know going into the address. First, the US has for all intents and purposes at this point strategically lost the war in Afghanistan. Second, the status quo plus more troops will not change anything other than the final cost in bodies and treasure. Third, without a deliberate effort to secure the Afghanistan-Pakistan border and at minimum isolate Taliban sanctuary in Pakistan any strategy will fail before it begins. Fourth, anything less than a concrete plan to decisively win in Afghanistan is an admission the Deep State (i.e. Pentagon) has taken full control of White House policy.
As for me, I would like to see one of two things after clearly outlining what we are doing in Afghanistan and what end state we are trying to achieve. Here is the general outline of what should be desirable. Option A: Cut and seal the Afghanistan-Pakistan border using NATO troops, annihilate Taliban sanctuary in Pakistan, continue to enable the Afghans to mop up the Taliban trapped in Afghanistan, freeze aid to Pakistan until they cut ties with China and turn over Al Qaeda’s remaining leadership, and incorporate Afghanistan’s neighbors to include Iran to put the pieces back together again. Option B: If we will not do A, then we need to immediately pull out of all troops, destroy any remaining military gear and equipment in country we haven’t already given to the Taliban, and cut aid to Pakistan.
Stand-by for analysis after the President’s brief.
By Guiles Hendrik
August 21, 2017
President Donald Trump may have gotten a few things very right regarding the on-going war in Afghanistan if reports are accurate. President Trump has apparently called the military to task in Afghanistan and threatened to clean house. President Trump suggested he would fire the top general in charge of US troops in Afghanistan, General John Nicholson and accused the military of giving up ground to the Taliban. “We aren’t winning,” the president reportedly said. “We are losing.” Further, the President demanded better strategies after rejecting that status quo the Pentagon tried to sell him.
Coming out of this meeting, the message should be clear to the military’s top brass. President Trump is not happy with the military’s lack of progress and won’t accept defeat. He is demanding a new strategy and has correctly recognized high-priced consultants and insiders are charlatans that don’t have the right answers. He needs to look beyond the “Swamp” for a new strategy. Fortunately, if President Trump and his NSC are receptive, there are a number of very good strategies that could still win the war that don’t require massive troop surges or total annihilation of the country.
President Trump need not look further than one of the single best research documents compiled to date on defeating insurgencies. The research, conducted by Jonathan Owen, a former military officer, is available in book form under the title #Fail: Why the US Lost the War in Afghanistan. Owen’s research analyzes 100 years of named insurgencies in a way no single think tank or intelligence agency has remotely approached. Owen’s book destroys the commonly held myths related to counterinsurgency and proves why the senior military establishment has been derelict in their duties. It demonstrates through overwhelming evidence that the “strategy” of training and advising never achieves decisive wins and only correlates with the defeat of the counterinsurgent. Contrary to a failed training and advising strategy, the study provides irrefutable evidence that identifies the single greatest factor in defeating an insurgency is denial of sanctuary, which in Afghanistan, translates to border security. Not satisfied with simply identifying the problems with the current US military strategy, Owen’s research lays out an actual clear cut plan for decisive victory that could be implemented today. In short, if President Trump wants a real plan to win in Afghanistan, he should make the study mandatory reading for the military just after firing his top generals. The point would be made and the war would be won.
By Guiles Hendrik
August 9, 2017
Let me get right to the point. President Trump is a complete moron if he honestly believes his military advisors are setting him up for success. I want President Trump to succeed, but until he gets better advisors, he will self-destruct. By ordering a surge of US military forces into Syria without any long term strategy or plan, he is effectively forcing America into the middle of an ugly civil war that will cost our nation dearly. Further, by directly entering the Syrian Civil War, President Trump has committed our nation to yet another unnecessary and unconstitutional war without making the case to the American people or obtaining congressional approval. This won’t just be a massive military mistake; it will be a political disaster. President Trump has no idea that as the US gets sucked further and further into this war, the failure of “his” war will arm his political enemies with everything they need to ultimately cripple his administration. By listening to the generals, President Trump has, within a month of taking office, committed the US to an even more disastrous war than his predecessors, which he will lose, and quite possibly destroy his administration. Brilliant! Read more
Approximately, one month ago, President Trump tasked the Pentagon with delivering him a plan to defeat the Islamic State or IS. What Trump failed to understand was the same people he tasked to solve the IS problem, were the same people that in a very large way created it. His trusted circle of advisors not only are all products of an institution with a heavily flawed system of promotion, but collectively failed to deliver a winning strategy when they were in combatant command roles. What kind of “solution” to IS does President Trump honestly think he will get from a group of institutionalized generals? Does anyone want to bet it will be a “solution” that requires more war? President Trump is literally asking “the swamp” to create his war policy and this is a fool’s errand. Based on a 100% failure rate of our Generals this century, this is unfortunately another juncture where it is very easy to assess with high certainty that the “solutions” President Trump will be presented will turn into another policy disaster. Both Presidents Bush and Obama suffered this hard lesson. President Trump needs to trash these recommendations and look at completely different ways of soliciting policy if he is to defeat IS and make America great again. This article is my attempt to speak truth to power and warn President Trump of the mistake he is making before it destroys his presidency. Read more
Again, the news cycle is moving so quickly, no one is able to completely keep up. However, with all of the focus on executive orders on immigration some major events are slipping by unnoticed. The take away is that the Middle East is again moving rapidly toward all-out war. The immigration issue is serious and important, but the war that could potential break out in the Middle East could be staggering. Here are the most recent highlights with comment:
Yemen in particular has become a flashpoint. Starting from the top, a unit from SEAL Team Six got mauled badly and lost an operator while conducting a direct action raid on a suspected al-Qaeda facility. Further, their MV-22 Osprey crashed and was destroyed on the ground. The base model of a single Osprey costs over $73,000,000 dollars and this was a special operations variant, which comes in closer to one hundred million dollars. This was in exchange for killing 14 alleged terrorists of at best, medium value, and collecting some information to better identify their network. This shows that President Trump is less risk averse when it comes to launching our soldiers into combat. If this becomes a trend, it means much more kinetic warfare and far greater US casualties. Previous to this raid, attacks in Yemen were almost exclusively being carried out by airstrikes.
If not bad enough, a Saudi Arabian Frigate, which is a warship, was attacked according to the US government, by a small boat laden with explosives. However, video evidence supports the assessment that believes the ship was hit by a missile supplied by Iran. Anti-ship missiles have been fired at US Warships in the same area over the last six months. Further, one man can be heard speaking in an Iranian accent chanting death to America. If it was indeed a missile that hit the boat, the fact is being downplayed and covered up to prevent outrage in Saudi Arabia that would demand revenge and initiate a war with Iran. This is not unprecedented in the region. An advanced ship from the UAE was also recently hit by an Iranian supplied anti-ship missile launched from Yemen and damaged so badly it had to be decommissioned. However, the UAE never officially acknowledge the attack.
Irrespective of how the attack occurred, the blast appears to have struck the upper portion of the stern of the Saudi ship inflicting serious damage and killing at least two Saudi sailors. This is a major act of war and is believed to have been launched by the Houthi rebels in Yemen. One may say this is the cost of starting an unnecessary war and invading Yemen. I would agree that it was stupid for Saudi Arabia to intervene militarily in Yemen. However, the Saudis tonight are not discussing whether or not their war was smart. What they are discussing his how to retaliate. If it in fact was an attack launched by the Houthis, the missile was undoubtedly supplied by Iran. Everyone knows this, but the question is if the Kingdom will hold the Houthis and/or the Iranians responsible. I assess the possibility of Saudi Arabia expanding their war in Yemen as high. I also see a medium likelihood of Saudi Arabia expanding it to Iran to include indicting any Iranian flagged ship near Yemen. This will undoubtedly provoke another cycle of violence. Worst case is Saudi Arabia decides to retaliate directly against Iran, but I assess this as unlikely. The fact that Saudi Arabia has not said anything about the ban in immigration from seven predominately Muslim countries factors into this situation. It is highly likely the Saudis will try to lean heavily on the US to take out Iran for them, which brings me to my next point.
Iran test launched a ballistic missile this week in violation of pretty much everything the international community has told Iran it could not do. Iran became a serial violator of any international dictates since the Obama Administration was in office. Their transgressions included seizing US Navy vessels and their crews in international waters, providing weapons to attack and kill Americans, holding Americans hostage, developing long range missile technology, and feigning attacks on our warships. Following precedent, Iran conducted a launch of another ballistic missile and has yet to be “reprimanded” by the new Administration. Perhaps, Iran thinks it has gotten away with it and President Trump will be a push over. If so, I believe they have badly miscalculated the new American President. President Trump in a short amount of time will respond. How, is the only question. Trumps retaliatory options range from lodging a diplomatic protest and re-invoking sanctions to launching a nuclear strike.
Yes, I do think President Trump is serious enough he may indeed use nuclear weapons during his time in office to prevent a bloody and costly deployment of ground troops against a country like North Korea or Iran. Nonetheless, I assess the Administration will come out with a clear warning to Iran, but will stop short of a military strike. Iran will get one warning, but no more. However, there is a perfect coalescing of Saudi and US interests with regards to annihilating Iran. Iran should take this seriously because Saudi Arabia may be on the phone right now with Washington discussing military options for the attack on their ship. If Trump greenlights retaliation, we could have a major outbreak of war in days. However, I reiterate, I think right now we will have some clear red lines drawn and preparations made, but the war won’t begin just yet.
In summary, things are getting hotter in the Middle East. All that is needed is a slight nudge and the entire region could erupt. I do not see anything getting calmer anytime soon. In fact, I think we are about to see a major escalation of war in the Middle East.
By Guiles Hendrik
January 30, 2017
Most of you have read a lot of articles and reports lately concerning escalating protests and violence across the country. Many of you are rightfully asking how far this will go. I have seen a number of reports that essentially dismiss the possibility of an armed rebellion beginning in America. They are wrong. People need to wake up. The United State has already passed through the proto-revolutionary phase and is now involved in an active low level insurgency that has the potential to quickly spread should the proper conditions present. The question isn’t whether or not a violent revolution could start in the US. The question is how bad will it get. Make no mistake; we are at war with a violent, leftist insurgency right now.
Let’s begin with a quick history lesson. President Obama began his political career in the living room of a domestic terrorist, Bill Ayers. Read more
Trump Wins in Historic Anti-Establishment Victory, but Temper Your Jubilation: The Good, Bad, and Ugly of What’s to Come
Last night, Donald Trump won a historic victory by all accounts. America’s silent, dispossessed majority has spoken and it should serve as a warning to anyone discounting the anger of the CITIZENS the government has failed to serve. His victory was more about defeating Hillary and the overwhelming corruption and arrogance of the elites she represents than a referendum on his policies. With their support, Trump took on what amounts to the entire establishment and stunned the elites. The magnitude of this victory can’t be understated and we should have immense respect for what he has accomplished. The “Donald” went head-to-head with the media complex, fended off judicial attacks, and even successfully overcame his own party sabotaging him all while essentially saying exactly what the pundits said he couldn’t say…the truth. Donald Trump lived up to “his” own hype and proved he does have what it takes to outsmart even the dirtiest of career political elites. However, once the celebrations are over, the real work begins. Trump will have one of the most challenging jobs as President of anyone in our time and it is far from certain he will turn out to be what the people that voted for him believe he will be. Trump won by capturing populist anger, but when it comes to the nuts and bolts of healthy policies, it isn’t all sunshine and rainbows if you now analyze what the American voter just elected. Here is a list of what we can look forward to, be worried about, and outright fear from President Trump.
The good: Read more
Jack Murphy, an author at SOFREP recently had the opportunity to interview Syrian President Assad. Whether or not you like President Assad, you need to hear Andrew Wilkow’s short interview with Jack about the meeting broadcast on The Wilkow Majority radio show. Jack may not realize it, but his observations are accurate and completely contradict Washington’s talking points. To be specific, our government is lying to us about Syria. If you do not get smart about the real facts on the ground that Jack discusses, you will be tricked into World War III by your propaganda masters.
As I have detailed from the beginning, the war in Syria has been engineered by global elites using terrorist proxies. (See http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/?s=syria). These special interests are solely interested in advancing their own agendas and care not for the damage it does to others. If successful, their strategy will result in disastrous strategic consequences for the region and the US. Read more
The political timing of the assault on Mosul was no coincidence. It was timed to correspond with the election and to be used as a diversion if necessary. Ready to support their political masters, the complicit government propaganda outlets, otherwise known as the American Media Establishment, were right there to announce how everything was going well and success against ISIL was right around the corner. Of course the media failed to investigate the valid claims that the US actually let ISIL evacuate the city before the assault. This action allowed murderous terrorists to escape to kill more innocent people so that the US can claim it effectively “liberated” Mosul. If the media was being honest, it would have long ago made it blatantly clear the US has no intention of defeating ISIL anytime soon and the Mosul operation is a sideshow. Further, in spite of many fighters being allowed to escape, the Mosul operation still has not been going as planned. The battle began to bog down almost as soon as it began, which was easily predictable. Cutting through all of the cross talk and false information is tough and has left most people at a complete loss for what is going on. To help, here is a quick summary of what happens next with respect to ISIL.
For starters, the bulk of ISIL fighters have escaped to fight another day. This means many thousands more people will unnecessarily die in the Middle East, Europe, and the US. The US, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and even Israel made sure this was the case because they still are desperately trying to salvage their diabolical scheme to overthrow Syrian President Assad. They are not in the smallest way moved by the fact their actions have led to the death and displacement of millions. Their hope is the bulk of these fighters will race to Aleppo to relieve their jihadist allies. Some fighters undoubtedly will move quickly to try and reinforce Aleppo. However, ISIL is out of the box and may have other plans. Read more
The following summary of recent world events is decidedly negative. This is not due to overt pessimism as much as the facts are just plain bad. In fact, I didn’t even include events like the effects of Hurricane Mathew, the attack on our warship off the coast of Yemen, and the assassination of more police around the US. The world is not getting any safer and indicators are all pointing to things worsening as we move into late fall and winter. The following are major events you should be taking note of with short comments.
- Situation in Syria: Syrian government forces backed by Iran and Russia continue to pound Aleppo and are nearing a strategic breakthrough. All actors in Syria recognize that if Assad is able to recapture Aleppo from the Islamic extremists it will be the beginning of the end for Washington’s terrorist proxies in Syria. As such, there is panic from Doha to Washington. The terrorist coalition knows that it is now or never for major intervention, which may force the White House to order direct strikes against the Syrian regime, which undoubtedly will be countered by Russian retaliation. This creates the potential for a rapid outbreak of a major regional war that could go global. We have effectively arrived at the point I have repeatedly forecasted would occur in Syria where either Moscow or Washington accepts a massive strategic policy defeat or there is a major war…perhaps both. This is inescapable at this point. The best case scenario is if the US backs out by aligning with Russia to defeat ISIL and negotiate a peace deal that leaves the regime in place for now. This is highly unlikely and if Hillary Clinton is elected, all but impossible.
- I am forecasting that the US will continue to spread false anti-Assad and anti-Russian propaganda to drum up war sentiment in the US to prepare the public for the announcement airstrikes against Syrian military positions. If the neo-cons within the establishment get their way the air strikes will happen, but there will be an immediate cost to US forces. Russia will defend its positions on the ground and engage any US forces that directly threaten Russian lives and interests. In this event, it is possible we will witness the first combat losses of US Fifth Generation Fighters, which Washington is rightfully terrified will occur. The loss of these jets will show everyone how much superiority the US has lost against countries like China under Obama. This will jeopardize the multi-billion dollar acquisition program that has been riddled with corruption, failures, and delays. As such, it is far more likely Washington will lead with cruise missile and drone strikes that are easier to deny and hide if they fail to achieve their objectives, but are also much less likely to achieve decisive results.
One of the single biggest mistakes preppers make is that they buy into the myth that relocating to a small region in the North West corner of the United States is their “best” chance of survival. As you now know from my previous three articles in this series, this theory is inaccurate and is not based on any sound research. Further, it causes people to unnecessarily incur significant additional costs and difficulties when developing their preparedness plans. However, what you still may not know is that there is a large body of empirical evidence that repeatedly demonstrates people living in isolated, remote areas are often at the greatest risk during wide spread social chaos and collapse. Not coincidentally, these people also suffer some of the most hardships. Therefore, with respect to our contemporary situation in the United States, preppers relocating to Idaho with the explicit intent to escape an oppressive government and or are planning to escape widespread instability during a systemic collapse of the system might very well be signing their death warrants. Instead, contrary to contemporary prepping strategies, it would be better to be closer if not in the midst of a more densely populated area.
I understand what I just wrote probably sent many readers into anger and shock. Nonetheless, it is far better to get the right information now then to continue along a misguided path to destruction. No doubt, some readers will immediately discount what I am about to say because they are blinded by their own preconceived biases. I cannot help those people. Thankfully, the majority of my readers are intelligent thinking people that will quickly grasp the conclusions to be drawn from the evidence and modify their preparedness strategies accordingly. In fact, don’t take my word alone, I invite everyone to conduct their own independent research into our prepping assumptions and disseminate their findings.
My theories seem counterintuitive to the premise that the farther from people you are, the farther from harm you are. This is because the basic assumptions of this safety distance premise are flawed. As the theory goes, in the event of a collapse or major catastrophe, being located away from people in a remote, self-sufficient redoubt is your best chance. I have already discussed why the 300 mile rule is a useless metric and that the notion of a “Golden Horde” of refugees fleeing a city and destroying all in their wake is equally unfounded and completely untrue. The last pillar of this theory is that being isolated conveys additional survival benefits. To test it accurately, one must evaluate case studies from around the world and then correctly apply them to a realistic scenario domestically. Read more