Search results for russia will cut supply lines

Massive and devastating escalation of War in Syria looms as Syrian Forces backed by Russia are poised to retake Aleppo: Saudi Arabia and Turkey prepare to deploy armies to Syria in response

February 5, 2016 Bugging Out, Danger Alerts!, Department of Defense, Department of State, Disaster Preparedness, Domestic Terrorism, Energy Security, Exclusive Story, Global War, Iran, ISIL, ISIL/ISIS/IS, Israel, New Cold War, News and Intelligence, Organization, Support, and Advice, Politics, Putin, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Terrorism One comment

This is an alert to all of my readers of a potentially imminent global crisis. We are not at the point of a full blown crisis yet, but I am telling everyone they need to not get, but, BE ready for things rapidly to turn very bad within 30-60 days.  I will be closely monitoring this situation and will provide updates as necessary.

While most Americans are distracted by the Super Bowl and the disgusting Jerry Springeresque political theater we call an election process, the world is rapidly descending toward a major, devastating war that will ultimately involve more Americans than both Afghanistan and Iraq combined. Make no mistake, the situation developing in the Middle East is extremely grave and the US government has lost all control. I have warned repeatedly about ignoring the last off ramps to peace in the Middle East and what the result would be. Well, now another prediction has come to pass as Russian backed Syrian troops are poised to retake Aleppo from the murderous Islamic savages and Saudi Arabia and Turkey prepare to militarily join the fight.

One quick look at a map will demonstrate the strategic significance of Aleppo for rebels fighting in Syria. Most critical to the mix of rebel elements still holding Aleppo is that it provides access to key supply lines originating in Turkey. If Aleppo falls, the primary rebel supply line will be cut and the rebels will face a near imminent defeat. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar are the primary backers of rebel forces in Syria and know this means their policy is about to collapse and Shia Iran will become the region’s hegemon. This also petrifies countries like Israel that have remained mostly quiet about the civil war even though they too are deeply involved. As a result, these countries are preparing to commit military forces to prevent Aleppo’s fall. As I have repeatedly warned, this will escalate the conflict significantly and rapidly. See: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/?s=syria

Make no mistake; the US has been on the wrong side of this war. I welcome the advance of Russian backed Syrian forces smashing the rebel forces, which are primarily composed of radical Islamic extremists that have been brutally murdering thousands of innocent people to include Christians. However, as I have repeatedly predicted, if one side in the proxy war primarily between Iran and Saudi Arabia gains a decisive advantage, it would force the other to quadruple down (they have already doubled and tripled) on their policy. At this point, that means putting their troops in actually face to face battle. As I warned for years and literally predicted, Saudi Arabia has now announced it is preparing to deploy its troops to Syria. See: http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/02/general-saudi-arabia-set-deploy-troops-syria-160205042542486.html

The arrival of Gulf Arab armies in Syria will be in a single word, catastrophic. The US long ago lost effective control of the conflict it in large part created, but MUST stop this deployment or risk the outbreak of a full scale regional and possibly world war. The notion that an alliance of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, and Kuwait, the same countries that have collectively spent billions arming and supporting ISIL, will now move to destroy ISIL defies all logic. In fact, it is so politically ridiculous that it is in fact a thinly veiled lie. Instead, Saudi Arabia and Turkey will lead an army into Syria with only one goal and that is to overthrow President Assad. Rather than fighting the radical terrorist elements such as ISIL, they will back them by recasting them as “moderate rebels.” Russia, Iraq, Iran, and Hezbollah will not be fooled by this and proportionally escalate. This sets the stage for a massive and devastating escalation. Read more

Russia Laughs at Obama’s Red Line in Russia: What’s Next for Relations?

March 23, 2014 Global War, News and Intelligence Comments Off on Russia Laughs at Obama’s Red Line in Russia: What’s Next for Relations?

President Obama and his Secretary of State John Kerry have to be the laughing stock of the foreign policy world.  In less than a year they have managed to draw two “Red Lines” only to have them almost immediately ignored, crossed, and forgotten.  With this track record the word impotent comes to mind in reference to US Foreign Policy and particularly President (Carter) Obama.  Not to be trifled with, President Obama and his partners within the EU managed to order the assets of a handful of Russians frozen, obviously leaving Putin quaking in his finely crafted leather shoes.  The act is almost comical in that it seems to show even less resolve than if Obama and the EU had done nothing.  After all, freezing the non-existent US assets of a couple dozen Russians long after they hid and/or offshored anything of value can only be viewed in one of two ways.  Either the US is as weak as it appears or the US never intended to truly oppose Russia’s aims to annex Crimea and this is all political show so that they can say they “stood up to Putin.”  Further, at least one of victims of Washington’s sanctions appears to have nothing to do with events in the Ukraine and everything to do with Russia’s Christian grounded stance against homosexuality, which at least someone high up in the Obama Administration took exception.  This random list of targets unrelated to the events in the Ukraine undermines any shred of legitimacy the sanctions purportedly were imbued with.  Either way, Putin has to be concluding that at this point the US and the EU have zero resolve when it comes to actually opposing Russia’s annexation of Crimea.  Nonetheless, Putin, the same man that would order a former Russian defector assassinated with a rare radioactive isotope placed in his cocktail in a fine London bar, is not likely to take Obama’s cheap shot lightly.

Now that Washington has proved it couldn’t resist taking a cheap shot, what can we expect Russia’s response to be?  First of all, Putin has shown that unlike Obama, his actions speak for themselves and he doesn’t need to talk.  Since Washington and the EU attacked Russia financially, it is likely Russia will respond financially.  Last week, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov declared that any sanctions introduced by Washington against Moscow will have a “boomerang” effect.  Senior Russian Presidential Advisor, Sergey Glazyev, one of the individual’s sanctioned by Obama’s executive order, suggested Russia would dump US treasuries and walk away from the US Dollar as a reserve currency.  It is questionable how much of an impact this would have, but it certainly wouldn’t help the US economically and add to the growing list of countries dumping the US Dollar as the world’s reserve currency.  American businesses operating in Russia may also suffer retaliation in the form of their assets being frozen, confiscated, or shutdown.  Further, Russia has the ability to call in billions in debt from the Ukraine and cut supplies of gas to the Ukraine and EU.  Cutting gas supplies to the EU would certainly hurt Russia too, but this logic is fundamentally flawed if one believes that it will deter Russia.  Russia is renowned for its ability to suffer austerity.  In fact, one of the critical failures in US-Russia policy has been the inability of our senior policy makers to recognize Russia’s ability to endure extreme hardships and willingly cut off its nose, leg and hand to spite its face if it means victory can be assured.  The US and EU are not willing to go to those extremes so, by that fact alone, Russia will prevail in any developing economic stand-off.

Respective of Russian natural gas and oil, I produced a paper a half a decade ago that looked into the future political ramifications of Russian geopolitical power as Western economies waned and Asian economies waxed.  What became apparent was that once Russia completed pipelines in its east that could link their large gas and oil fields to China and coastal ports in the Pacific, Russia would gain significant leverage in what had previously been a status quo relationship with Europe between supply and demand.  Until recently, Europe has always felt safe in that at worst, Russia would only cut gas supplies during a political crisis for a short period of time because Russia needed the money as much as Europe needed the gas.  However, with pipelines now directly extending supply to China, Russia is more than able to divert supplies from Europe, southeast to China.  This is a game changer, which increases Russia’s geopolitical maneuver space.  China welcomes this and is happy to buy all of the petrol resources it can obtain from Russia so that its supplies are more reliable.  Further, China will be likely to back any move that drives Russia to sell to China at more favorable rates, which to date, have been below what Russia was willing to agree to sell at.  China would also see the advantage of a marginalized Russia that dumps the US Dollar and is willing to trade directly in their respective currencies.  Remember, China seeks to replace the US Dollar as the world’s reserve currency and sees that transition as critical to achieving super power status and eclipsing the US.  Considering the above, it is highly likely that China will not just quietly support Russia, but actively back Russia against the US and EU.

Russia also has the ability to increase the sale of military weapons to countries such as Iran and Syria.  In particular, the S-300 air defense system would be a highly sought after leap ahead in technology for both the Iranian and Syrian militaries.  This system alone would be penetrable by American airpower; however, it would significantly increase the complexities and cost of carrying out any type of air attack against either nation.  Russia could also dangle the idea of selling an even more advanced S-400 air defense system, which if fielded, would mean that US would be at a high risk of losing significant numbers of aircraft in the event they attacked any nation using the system.  Respective of countries such as Israel, the S-400 would make it all but impossible for them to successfully carrying out an air attack making any suggestion of the sale of the weapon system a serious threat.  Respective of the civil war in Syria, Russia could begin sending ship loads of various weapons and even advisors and troops to support President Assad.  This would tip the balance in favor of Assad just as his army is gaining ground on the rebels making it possible to achieve a decisive victory.  Ensuring Assad’s victory would have the added benefit of snubbing Washington while stopping Qatari efforts to build a gas pipeline to Europe that would reduce the European reliance on Russian gas.

Finally, among numerous options for retaliation, Russia has the ability to make NATO’s withdrawal from Afghanistan extremely painful.  First of all, Russia has the ability to shut down all supply routes to and from Afghanistan from the north.  This would disrupt NATO’s ability to sustain the current forces in Afghanistan and retard efforts under way to retreat with all of its equipment in tow.  Further, it would force NATO to pay premium prices to Pakistan to move all of its equipment out of the country via Karachi.  The Karachi route is extremely dangerous and once it is clear that the US must use this route, the Taliban could concentrate its attacks along the entire stretch of this road network.  Even darker is Russia’s proven, albeit very covert ability to provide the Taliban with substantial support and weapons.  Should the Russians decide to really make life a living hell for the US, expect to see the Taliban suddenly supplied with more sophisticated weaponry capable of destroying armored vehicles from long range or even engaging NATO aircraft and drones.  Imagine what NATO’s retreat from Afghanistan would look like as troop numbers dwindle and the remaining isolated outposts begin to be overrun, supply convoys are wiped out by sophisticated  laser beam riding anti-tank weapons, and aircraft are suddenly being shot down by the modern Russian equivalent of the Stinger missile.

In truth, the US is far more exposed than many realize.  Should Washington decide to ratchet up pressure on Russia by continuing to try and subvert Russia’s historic sphere of interest, expect Putin to begin playing cards he has so far politely held in reserve.  Putin’s trump cards are for, let’s say, more uncivilized forms of diplomacy, which Washington now seems to want to engage.  Obama’s thug style Chicago politics may have worked within the confines of the decrepit US political system, but Barry will be sorely mistaken if he thinks he even remotely approaches a match for Putin in the global arena.  As Putin has repeatedly demonstrated with very little talk and decisive action, Washington is a paper tiger that not just lacks teeth, but a functioning brain.

 

By Guiles Hendrik

March 23, 2014

All rights reserved.

One Step Closer to Major Middle Eastern War between Iran and Saudi Arabia

January 4, 2016 Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, China, Department of Defense, Department of State, Energy Security, Exclusive Story, Global War, Iran, ISIL, ISIL/ISIS/IS, ISIS, Israel, Military, Military Industrial Complex, New Cold War, Obama, Oil and Gas, Politics, Putin, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Taliban, Terrorism, Yemen Comments Off on One Step Closer to Major Middle Eastern War between Iran and Saudi Arabia

Readers of Last Minute Survival are well aware that I have been correctly predicting for years the progression of events in the Middle East toward a total regional conflagration. Speaking broadly of a few key events, I predicted the rise of ISIL, the spread of the “civil war in Syria” to Iraq, and the proxy war between Saudi Arabia (Sunni) and Iran (Shia) going hot.  The execution of a prominent dissident Shiite cleric in Saudi Arabia just took this conflict one notch closer to a total war, which the United States is not prepared.  The brewing war has triggered a nuclear arms race in the Middle East and it now appears averting a massive war will not be possible.  The only question is how to best mitigate the damage.

This escalation has not been fully appreciated in the US and in fact seems to have been discounted by the US Department of State, which will certainly be “surprised” when both countries begin to mobilize their militaries. Both nations are now moving toward a war footing, which has initiated a secret nuclear arms race in the Middle East.  Iran knows Saudi Arabia has a far more modern military and the backing of the United States, the Gulf Coast Countries, and possibly Israel, Turkey, and Pakistan.  Iran is also threatened by Saudi backed Sunni extremists fighting to overthrow its allies to the west in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon while being boxed in by another Saudi backed Sunni extremist group, the Taliban, to its east in Afghanistan.  Iran knows Pakistan has agreed to supply Saudi Arabia with nuclear weapons.  Iran’s generals are not stupid and assess that they must obtain nuclear weapons if they have any hope of successfully defending Iran.  They are also racing to improve their anti-access and missile technologies to thwart any type of amphibious invasion from the US while effectively being able to attack Saudi Arabia’s water and oil installations from afar.  Further, as I have warned, Iran has been racing to operationally deploy advanced, Russian, S-300 air defense systems, which will effectively deny Iranian airspace to all but 5th Generation fighter/attack aircraft.

As overwhelming as the odds may seem to Iran, Saudi Arabia is justifiably terrified of a powerful Iran. What Iran lacks in high tech military hardware, it has in willpower and individual fighting capability, which will prove far more potent than anything the Saudis can muster for a war.  Those of us that have worked with the Saudi military know that the Saudi military is a paper tiger.  The Saudis are lazy and incompetent as warriors, but they have a big checkbook that keeps the US military industrial complex in business.  This keeps Washington and the Pentagon from ever effectively addressing the issue, which will become brutally apparent when a direct conflict between the nations breaks out.  In a head to head fight, Iran’s fighters are better trained, better organized, and far more motivated than even the best Saudi units.  In fact, aside from perhaps Jordan, the Arab armies are a joke.  Most are probably more likely to shoot each other (intentionally or not) before ever fielding an effective force against an enemy.  Further, although Iran has proven its ability to project forces beyond its borders successfully, and would no doubt use Iraq as a staging area for a land invasion of Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia has no such force projection capability.  Without the ability to actually invade and defeat Iran, Saudi Arabia could only at best win a partial victory over Iran.  As such, Saudi Arabia must rely on buying off Washington to intervene and fight its war with American troops and treasure.  The Pentagon at least gets this, but what isn’t well understood by either the generals or the White House is that the Saudi backup plan if Washington bulks is to have a credible nuclear weapons capability that they will use if Washington won’t act.  The US is totally unprepared for and to date has no policy to even remotely address.  Read more

How to Defeat ISIL: Civil-Military Strategy 101

November 21, 2015 Department of Defense, Department of State, Domestic Terrorism, Exclusive Story, Global War, Iran, ISIL, ISIL/ISIS/IS, ISIS, Israel, Leftist Communists, Military, New Cold War, News and Intelligence, Obama, Putin, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Terrorism Comments Off on How to Defeat ISIL: Civil-Military Strategy 101

It comes as no surprise to my readers that not only is ISIL still alive and well as a terrorist state, but arguably has grown in power since the United States began military operations “against” it.  I have routinely published on the fact that the US has no strategy and its leaders are an amateurish joke.  Further, I have been documenting for years that ISIL was born and bred by the CIA as a proxy to serve elitist interests and therefore won’t be “destroyed” anytime soon.  Since then, not only have senior US leaders such as the former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, General Flynn confirmed this fact, but Russia has called our bluff and has shown in just a matter of weeks how quickly ISIL could be smashed if the US actually had a policy to defeat the terrorist nation.  Now that the truth that the US created ISIL is out in the open source and ISIL has predictably grown out of control, should the US actually decide that wiping out the terrorist army they created would be wise, today I discuss what that strategy would entail.  Ironically, even a very general strategy is far more detailed than anything the US has so far put together.  To illustrate just how incompetent our senior leadership is in this regard, Hillary Clinton recently announced that her strategy to defeat ISIL was to “defeat ISIL.”  Really?  It is a wonder ISIL doesn’t control more territory with such moronic imbeciles at the helm.  In order to help these moronic policy makers and senior military officers, let me lay out a basic strategic plan against ISIL.

To begin, let me dispense with your failed Irregular Warfare (IW) approaches, which policy makers love because they think they can win a war on the cheap.  The historical record is quite clear; IW does not decisively win wars, it creates them.  This distinction in military manuals and training unfortunately is all but absent.  Only through determined deliberate action can a war be decisively won.  Other than in a few niche applications, arming, training, and equipping proxy armies has never been successful.  Cyber-attacks, psychological warfare, economic development, and public relations campaigns are equally ineffective against a violent enemy willing to kill to achieve its goals.  “Winning the hearts and minds” is complete bullshit and always has been.  This fiction only existed in political circles too scared to acknowledge reality and the brutality that must accompany warfare.  Anything short of brutality and violence is not warfare and should never be conflated with war.  In fact, if lesser means are suitable, then they should be exhausted.  Understanding this would be far healthier for any nation and would lead to a far less liberal use of pseudo-warfare, which is every bit as violent, but just dressed up for political spin.  Now that we have dispensed this modern “pseudo-warfare” and IW, which are completely fictitious shams respective of actual military strategies, let’s discuss what a real war against ISIL looks like.  I warn you…anything short of the below will only delay a far more brutal and bloody war that ultimately will be fought indiscriminately anyhow or lead to a decisive defeat for the Christian West.

Defeating ISIL like any other enemy requires a full spectrum approach.  On the political front, Saudi Arabia and Qatar must be prevented from providing any type of material support to ISIL.  In particular, until firm compliance was established, all military sales and forms of foreign aid to the said countries must be immediately ceased.  Turkey must also be immediately reigned in and all economic support via the purchase of black market oil must be halted.  If Turkey continued to purchase ISIL produced black market oil, pressure should be ratcheted up against Erdogan’s administration to include exclusion from NATO and the EU as well as economic sanction.  Turkey must also be forced to accept Kurdish military action against ISIL in Syria by reaffirming their right to defend Turkish sovereign territory against Kurdish terrorist factions such as the PKK.  Israel also needs to stay out of it and stop bombing Syrian positions, which by default help ISIL.  Respective of Russia, the US needs to work jointly with Russia to share intelligence and coordinate their military offensives to achieve the maximum impact against ISIL.  Option B would be for the US to completely stay out of the fight with ISIL, completely cease support to any parties involved, let the primary actors in the Middle East fight it out, and then step back in once the smoke clears.  I can entertain either option, which honestly are both viable, but for today’s discussion, I am going to focus on US intervention. Read more

Global Updates: May 21, 2015

May 21, 2015 Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, Big Government, China, Congress, Conspiracy Theories, Constitution, Department of Defense, Department of State, Domestic Terrorism, Global War, ISIL, ISIS, Justice Department, Liberty and Freedom, Military, News and Intelligence, Obama, Police State, Politics, Resistance to Tyranny, Russia, Syria, Taliban, Terrorism Comments Off on Global Updates: May 21, 2015

ISIL holds Ramadi: The White House, Defense Department, and Secretary of State have all down played the fall of Ramadi as a small “target of opportunity” and mild “setback.”  However, in reality, the fall of Ramadi was very foreseeable and a massive military disaster for the Iraqi government.  As I forecasted, Mosul would not be retaken anytime soon and the Obama strategy…or lack thereof, would be a total disaster.  See http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/10/01/islamic-extremism-and-what-lies-ahead-part-ii-the-war-on-isis-and-syria/#more-699 Rather than being beat back, it is now highly likely that ISIL will continue to press its attack while the Iraqi Army is trying to regroup and capture large parts if not all of Fallujah.  If Fallujah falls, Baghdad will finally be seriously threatened by ISIL.

Sirte falls, ISIL takes 3rd major city in 48 hours:  In what is proving to be another example of Obama’s Foreign Policy disaster initiated under Secretary Clinton and amplified under Secretary Kerry, another major city has fallen to ISIL.  However, it is not in Syria or Iraq.  The city is in Libya.  Yes, the country Obama, Rice, Clinton, and Power “liberated” has now had the western city of Sirte overrun by radical Islamists loyal to ISIL.  According to my count that makes the score in just the last 48 hours 3 ISIL: 0 USA.  Ramadi, Palmyra, and now Sirte all have been overrun.  Even if ISIL can’t hold the ground, the fact they took down three major cities in just days is telling of how “successful” the US strategy to combat ISIL has been.  In fact, Obama’s “strategy” has been such a disaster, one would conclude that he couldn’t possibly have been that stupid and the only way this could be occurring was if it was his intent all along.  It is either amateur hour and Obama desperately needs to read some alternative news and hire new NSC advisors or the man is a traitor.

Russia no longer allowing NATO supplies to move across its borders to Afghanistan:  In another foreign policy disaster that has completely escaped the government media complex, Russia has now halted NATO supplies crossing its borders to Afghanistan.  I verbatim warned of this on March 23, 2014 saying the Russians could play this card in retaliation for NATO escalation in the Ukraine and make it extremely painful to maintain our troops in Afghanistan. http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/?s=russia+will+cut+supply+lines Now the US has only one supply route for its forces.  The unreliable and costly southern supply route begins in the Port of Karachi and runs north through Pakistan and into Afghanistan through extremely dangerous Taliban controlled provinces.  Each convoy that is allowed to pass through these areas pays a heavy toll, which in turn is then used to fund Taliban operations.  Further, Pakistan now has gained significant political leverage over Washington to extort any amount of money it wishes to allow passage of critical NATO supplies.  http://rt.com/news/259809-russia-stops-nato-afghanistan-cargo/

FBI making house calls to people concerned about Jade Helm 15:  In what could be viewed as a major escalation bolstering concerns amongst the public over the upcoming Jade Helm 15 exercise, FBI special agents have apparently begun making house calls to concerned citizens that have raised questions publicly.  http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/video-fbi-now-going-door-to-door-interrogating-americans-about-jade-helm-military-exercises-we-follow-pp-with-anything-like-that_05212015 Although, the special agents appear very polite and almost embarrassed to be performing the house calls, the fact they are knocking on doors is chilling.  Ironically, if the intent was to quell fears and concerns as the agents suggest, they are clearly having the exact opposite effect.  I doubt the special agents are so dumb that can’t figure this out, but why they are not speaking out about how ridiculous and counterproductive these visits are is disturbing.  Common sense tells you their real intent is to gauge the subject’s political views and whether or not to deem him a threat.  As agents, they should be well aware that people are allowed to have distrust of the government, dissent, and openly question authority especially, when it is launching an exercise designed to target American citizens in the US.  Whether the intent is to intimidate or not, it is clear field offices have been spun up to believe citizens that simply want the rule of law respected are now the threat.  This has been so hyped by DHS and the DOJ, it is coming at the expense of legitimate threats like MS13 and New Black Panther Party members publicly calling for the execution of police and making good on those threats.  The Justice Department will certainly spin this to say it is just doing its “due diligence” to make sure things are peaceful and safe, but anyone with half a brain sees the biased political motivations forcing agents out to conduct house calls on people that pose zero threat to anyone following the law and respecting the US Constitution.

China and US escalate tensions:  Recent moves by China to exclude airspace to US military aircraft has led to an increase in tensions.  However, this really has nothing to do with some small dots of islands, territorial integrity, or military development.  The deeper issue arising is that China has risen to a peer competitor level status with the US threatening the post-Bretton Woods financial establishment.  Historically, when the bankers were threatened it led directly to war and I doubt this will end differently.  Specifically, China has established a counter balance to the IMF that Washington desperately tried to stop and utterly failed to prevent.  This single act has broken the IMF/World Bank monopoly and the major banking families intend to make China pay for its actions.  Further, China has also been concluding multi-billion dollar oil/gas deals with Russia, which has undermined any ability Washington thought it had to isolate and strong-arm Russia.  In short, China is now seen as a real threat, but not to America, but rather, to the elites of the Western financial monopoly.  As such, you can bet you will see a strong shift toward painting China as a bigger and bigger existential military threat that very well could lead to the outbreak of war.

Peace with Iran will lead to war, but not why you think: Part 1

March 26, 2015 9/11, Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, Department of Defense, Department of State, Energy Security, Global War, Iran, ISIL, ISIS, Israel, Military, Military Industrial Complex, New Cold War, Obama, Syria, Taliban, Terrorism, Uncategorized Comments Off on Peace with Iran will lead to war, but not why you think: Part 1
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, right, speaks with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Geneva, Switzerland, in January. Kerry will meet again with Zarif this weekend in the Swiss capital as March deadline approaches. (Keystone/ Martial Trezzini/file/Associated Press)

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, right, speaks with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Geneva, Switzerland, in January. Kerry will meet again with Zarif this weekend in the Swiss capital as March deadline approaches. (Keystone/ Martial Trezzini/file/Associated Press)

Over the last decade, I have produced many papers and articles analyzing events in the Middle East and their geopolitical impact for academia, commercial publications, think tanks, and government agencies.  I stand by my track record as one of the most prescient in the business.  To that end, predicting chaos in the Middle East has been easy, but combining the what (violence) with the who, when, why, and how are the far more demanding predictions.  One the worst case scenarios for a broad outbreak of violence in the Middle East has been the possibility of a major war between Israel and Iran.  This conflict would immediately go regional with the on-going proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia pulling in the remaining Middle Eastern countries.  Once it goes regional, it will be nearly impossible for the U.S., Europe, and Russia to remain on the sidelines.  I have described in detail how this would likely play out as well as how it could be prevented in previous posts (see a partial list below).  I am writing today again with a dire warning for anyone willing to listen.  The most recent events occurring across the Middle East are now signaling the worst case scenario of a major conflict with Iran will come to pass as I have previously predicted.  This first article discusses why war with Iran is unnecessary and must be avoided.  Part II will discuss why even with an Iranian deal, war is inevitable and the dire consequences we can expect.  Read more

Bug Out Bags Part II: Washington, DC

October 17, 2014 Bug Out Bags, Bugging Out, Disaster Preparedness, Domestic Terrorism, Earthquakes, Ebola, Extreme Weather, Pandemic, Prepper Organization, Prepping, Self-Sufficiency, Special Skills, Survival Skills, Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures, Terrorism Comments Off on Bug Out Bags Part II: Washington, DC

Map of Washington DCFor Part II in our series on bug out kits, I will look at some specifics for planning your kit if you happen to live in or around the nation’s capital.  I chose to address DC first, because it is a city where the conditions that trigger bugging out are likely to occur and it offers some very specific challenges that are applicable to many urban centers across the US.  Hopefully, you have had a chance to read my intro post on building your bug out kit.  If not, first review thin information we posted at: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/10/13/location-specific-bug-out-bags-part-i/.

Why would you worry about having to bug out if you live in DC? Read more

Syria Becomes Battleground for Global Proxy War

June 12, 2013 Al Qaeda, Iran, Israel, Military, News and Intelligence Comments Off on Syria Becomes Battleground for Global Proxy War

The Syrian Civil War is poised to explode into full scale sectarian violence that will engulf the region as a global proxy war is played out on Syrian soil.  Recent news reports cite Iraqi Shia fighters trained by Iran have been joining ranks with Hezbollah militants in Syria.  These combined forces are supporting Syrian President Assad’s legitimate government forces against a Syrian rebel army that is comprised mainly of Sunni Muslims.  Like the Syrian government’s forces, the rebel army is also comprised of a large contingent of foreign fighters.  As we have repeatedly warned, the vanguard rebel fighters are Sunni extremists from around the globe, which include a large contingent of Sunni Iraqis and others waging global jihad.  These rebel fighters have sworn allegiance to Al Qaeda, support the Muslim Brotherhood, and have announced that when they are done fighting in Syria, the USA will be next.  As such, one would think the US would want to see President Assad prevail.  Ironically, though, this is not the case.  This article will review the regional and global competitors in this conflict and why the US is worried Assad will defeat the Al Qaeda led rebels.

At the regional level, as discussed in part above, a Shia versus Sunni war has developed in the Middle East and Syria is ground zero.  On the rebel side you have countries such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia sending large sums of money to finance the rebel army while they look the other way when their citizens leave their country to wage jihad in Syria.  Jordan and Turkey are actively providing training facilities and logistical support to the rebel armies.  Iraq’s population is split down sectarian lines in its support of the rebels.  The US, Israel, and EU have all aligned against President Assad and have covertly been supporting the rebels by procuring weapons and medical equipment, was well as providing training and intelligence.  Finally, you have countries from around the world like Chechnya and Libya whose citizens have flocked to Syria to fight with the rebels.  These jihadists once united in combat become infinitely more radicalized, better trained and equipped, and very well organized.  Ultimately, they become very dangerous terrorists that will attack the US and their former host countries.  This same pattern played out during the Soviet War in Afghanistan where a little known Saudi named Osama bin Laden began financing jihadists and organizing what became known as Al Qaeda.

Opposing this rebel jihadist army are equally dedicated Shia fighters.  This includes Iraqi Shia and perhaps Kurds and Lebanese based Hezbollah fighters.  Hezbollah is backed by weapons and money from Iran.  Specifically, Iran has provided state level support to Syria, which includes weapons, advisors, and most likely fighters.  However, it is Russia that is ultimately President Assad’s most powerful and persuasive supporter.  Russian President Putin has to date successfully prevented the US, Israel, and the EU from directly attacking Syria and has been providing advanced weapons systems to Syria.

Based on the nationality and religious allegiance of the fighters in Syria, one can clearly see how the entire Middle East is represented and could be pulled into the Syrian conflict.  As we have previously reported, Iraq, the central lynchpin of the Middle East, is being ripped apart by this conflict.  Sectarian violence has reemerged with a vengeance across Iraq as happened during their previous civil war and the one now raging in Syria will metastasize into one giant regional Sunni-Shia showdown.  If President Assad is not successful in routing the Sunni jihadists, Jordan, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia will without doubt become the next targets of this growing terrorist army.  Make no mistake, this is a fight for keeps and the winner takes all.  Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has stated publicly that the group’s existence depends on defeating the Sunni rebel army against Assad.  “Hezbollah is fully engaged in the battlefield.  And this is a major shift.  It’s no longer them trying to protect villages along the border in Lebanon; it’s waging battle alongside the Syrian government forces … willing to sustain casualties and shoulder the consequences,” said Fawaz Gerges, director of the Middle East Center at the London School of Economics.

At the global level, Russia has moved naval forces into the region not seen since the height of the Cold War.  The Russian show of force includes various warships and submarines armed with nuclear weapons.  Russia is no doubt signaling to the US that it is not willing to accept a loss of its only warm water port in Syria and will back its most trusted regional ally.  The EU wants a pipeline from Qatar to break the Russian monopoly on European energy supplies, so has at least tacitly thrown its support behind the rebels.  China sees the US as a threat and realizes that another US war in the region will further weaken Washington.  As such, China is positioning itself to exploit the chaos at the expense of the US.  This includes making deals with both sides all while staying out of the fight.

However, the US has been the driving force behind the civil war that has led to the deaths of over 80,000 people.  To accomplish this, the US has been covertly organizing, training, equipping, and advising the rebel forces from Jordan, Turkey, and now Syria proper.  Per our previous reports, factions within the US are determined to attack Iran and recognize Syria as a critical stepping stone in achieving this war.  As the war plan goes, Syria and Hezbollah must be taken out first to insulate Israel from counter attacks.  When Syria and Hezbollah are seen as sufficiently degraded, a pretext would be used to launch an overt military strike on Iran, which would include using an air corridor opened through eastern Syria.  However, this could not be achieved through a direct attack by the US, which would polarize the world against the US and be seen even by Americans as too egregious, so proxies were chosen to do the dirty work as per Cold War unconventional war doctrine.  This plan has been implemented to assuage Israeli fears of the US doing nothing about a nuclear Iran in hopes of at least delaying Israel from striking Iran and sucking the US into a disastrous war.  Ironically, it will make the situation far worse for the US and Israel.  Nonetheless, the US has responded by moving its own naval forces into the region.  The US has stationed an aircraft carrier battle group in the Mediterranean and recently deployed approximately 1100 Marines from the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit into Jordan where they will meet up with Special Forces and other US military units already on the ground.  This deployment is using the cover of being a routine annual military exercise with Jordan codenamed, Operation Infinite Moonlight.  Further, in Turkey, the US has positioned Patriot II air defense missiles and set up CIA supported training camps for rebel fighters while threatening greater NATO escalation should Syria try to fight back.  Finally, Israel has repeatedly provoked and flagrantly violated Syria’s sovereignty by launching repeated air strikes against various targets throughout Syria.

The combined Syrian government forces are winning against all the covert efforts of Washington and this scares the White House.  In fact, the Syrian Army is now poised to launch a large scale counteroffensive around Damascus designed to route rebel forces and drive them out of the suburbs.  “Planes are dropping off fully armed fighters from Hezbollah and the Iraqi Fadl Brigades,” said opposition activist Abu Yasser.  Hezbollah is a Lebanon-based terrorist group and the Fadl Brigades are Iranian-trained Shiite Muslim militants from Iraq.  According to USA Today, both groups are likely destined for the fight in al-Qusayr, a town near the Lebanese border that is at the center of the rebels’ supply routes for ammo and fighters, Yasser said.  What one must understand from this is that Syria has now become the battleground for a proxy war being waged by regional and global competitors and Washington’s rebel army is not winning.  This likely means the White House will need to execute more overt and risky interventionist strategies to bring about the desired rebel victory.  The rationale is that failure for Washington to engineer a rebel victory will force a complete recalculation of the Iranian War Plan.

If Washington’s proxy army in Syria loses, the US will be forced to enter the war directly.  To do this, Washington must engineer a situation that forces unilateral military action in Syria, which the American people are firmly against.  This overt action will not only cause a violent regional response, but also trigger a Russian response.  Even a limited Russian response such as providing increased military support to the Syrian army will make any US efforts incredibly costly if not futile.  Already, repeated staged crises have failed to pull the American public behind any intervention.  These attempts include Turkey trying to invoke a NATO response after provoking Syrian air defenses to shoot down a Turkish military jet violating its airspace and blaming the Syrian army for what likely was rebel mortar fire into Turkey.  Further, Assad was blamed for using chemical weapons against the rebels until the truth came out that it was in fact the rebels that had used the chemical weapons.  Other blatant propaganda such as staging and doctoring photos of the injured and dead have also failed to convince the average American that they have joint interests in Syria.  As a result, the US and EU will likely begin massive covert arming of the rebels, which may or may not turn the tide of battle, but will certainly lead to the deaths of tens of thousands of people.  If this too fails, Israel will likely demand direct US action in Syria or launch its own attack on Iran.  This will be a choice of two evils.  Both will ultimately be too costly for the US, which has painted itself into a corner.  If the rebels win, Muslim extremists will control a large military with advance weapons on Israel’s border, which will destabilize the entire region and threaten the US.  If the rebels lose, Iran will be firmly established as a regional player on the verge of obtaining nuclear weapons capability.

Washington’s interventionist policies have created a situation where the US is in a lose-lose situation.  Israeli interests have hijacked US foreign policy for the worst leading either to a disastrous war with Iran or the rise of extremist Muslim nations.  In conclusion, we have passed a point in the Syrian Civil War where we could have cut our losses.  Instead, we doubled down and are now in a position that virtually assures the US will be drawn into another costly war before the end of 2013.

 

By Guiles Hendrik

June 11, 2013

All rights reserved