Archive for ISIS

One Step Closer to Major Middle Eastern War between Iran and Saudi Arabia

Readers of Last Minute Survival are well aware that I have been correctly predicting for years the progression of events in the Middle East toward a total regional conflagration. Speaking broadly of a few key events, I predicted the rise of ISIL, the spread of the “civil war in Syria” to Iraq, and the proxy war between Saudi Arabia (Sunni) and Iran (Shia) going hot.  The execution of a prominent dissident Shiite cleric in Saudi Arabia just took this conflict one notch closer to a total war, which the United States is not prepared.  The brewing war has triggered a nuclear arms race in the Middle East and it now appears averting a massive war will not be possible.  The only question is how to best mitigate the damage.

This escalation has not been fully appreciated in the US and in fact seems to have been discounted by the US Department of State, which will certainly be “surprised” when both countries begin to mobilize their militaries. Both nations are now moving toward a war footing, which has initiated a secret nuclear arms race in the Middle East.  Iran knows Saudi Arabia has a far more modern military and the backing of the United States, the Gulf Coast Countries, and possibly Israel, Turkey, and Pakistan.  Iran is also threatened by Saudi backed Sunni extremists fighting to overthrow its allies to the west in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon while being boxed in by another Saudi backed Sunni extremist group, the Taliban, to its east in Afghanistan.  Iran knows Pakistan has agreed to supply Saudi Arabia with nuclear weapons.  Iran’s generals are not stupid and assess that they must obtain nuclear weapons if they have any hope of successfully defending Iran.  They are also racing to improve their anti-access and missile technologies to thwart any type of amphibious invasion from the US while effectively being able to attack Saudi Arabia’s water and oil installations from afar.  Further, as I have warned, Iran has been racing to operationally deploy advanced, Russian, S-300 air defense systems, which will effectively deny Iranian airspace to all but 5th Generation fighter/attack aircraft.

As overwhelming as the odds may seem to Iran, Saudi Arabia is justifiably terrified of a powerful Iran. What Iran lacks in high tech military hardware, it has in willpower and individual fighting capability, which will prove far more potent than anything the Saudis can muster for a war.  Those of us that have worked with the Saudi military know that the Saudi military is a paper tiger.  The Saudis are lazy and incompetent as warriors, but they have a big checkbook that keeps the US military industrial complex in business.  This keeps Washington and the Pentagon from ever effectively addressing the issue, which will become brutally apparent when a direct conflict between the nations breaks out.  In a head to head fight, Iran’s fighters are better trained, better organized, and far more motivated than even the best Saudi units.  In fact, aside from perhaps Jordan, the Arab armies are a joke.  Most are probably more likely to shoot each other (intentionally or not) before ever fielding an effective force against an enemy.  Further, although Iran has proven its ability to project forces beyond its borders successfully, and would no doubt use Iraq as a staging area for a land invasion of Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia has no such force projection capability.  Without the ability to actually invade and defeat Iran, Saudi Arabia could only at best win a partial victory over Iran.  As such, Saudi Arabia must rely on buying off Washington to intervene and fight its war with American troops and treasure.  The Pentagon at least gets this, but what isn’t well understood by either the generals or the White House is that the Saudi backup plan if Washington bulks is to have a credible nuclear weapons capability that they will use if Washington won’t act.  The US is totally unprepared for and to date has no policy to even remotely address.  Read more

Gun owners are labeled terrorists by the Attorney General: You must challenge the government’s narrative on “excessive” guns and ammunition

As the terrorist attack played out in San Bernardino, the propaganda machine spun into high gear. Even before it was finished, Islam had been exonerated and instead, you were made to believe it was caused by people with too many weapons.  Is having “too many” guns bad?  What exactly constitutes too many guns?  Is it a “stockpile” or “arsenal” and what exactly defines that?  Is it a few guns?  Is it a black rifle and a pistol?  Is it a box of .22 rounds?  You better know because your Attorney General Loretta Lynch uses this seemingly unknowable number to define a terrorist.  You heard that right.  Even if you have even just one rifle you have an “arsenal.”  Not a couple, not a few, not a dozen, not even a hundred rifles…just one gun with barely enough rounds to train with and you are a terrorist by the definition of the Attorney General of the United States.  It would be easy to dismiss this as the foolish ramblings of an imbecile, but this is deadly serious.  Lynch is not joking and knows exactly what she is saying.  Her statements are just a small part of a coordinated plot to recast legal gun owners as terrorists and then deal with them accordingly.

It was obvious from the very beginning of the shooting spree in San Bernardino that the government knew the shooters were radical Islamic terrorists and were trying to cover it up. Immediately, the White House and its media drones began deflecting attention from the radicalized Muslim terrorists to the fact they had guns.  This was not accidental.  This was pre-orchestrated plan to redirect the blame of any attack resulting from the President’s disastrous policies onto your Bill of Rights in order to demonize and destroy those freedoms.  Disagree?  Let’s look at the available evidence in the mass media.  Read more

Counterterrorism 101: How to quickly mitigate 85% of the Islamic terrorist threat in the US

In spite of the hundreds of billions of dollars being spent on defense and intelligence, our nation has once again failed to prevent an Islamic inspired terrorist attack on our soil.  Nonetheless, we are told that we must accept massive domestic spying and surveillance or we will not be safe even though these unconstitutional, Orwellian programs have never prevented a single attack.  Considering the amount of manpower, money, and technology dedicated to counterterrorism operations that still fail, one could easily conclude that rooting out Islamic extremists is just too difficult.  However, nothing could be further from the truth.  Terrorism is not a new phenomenon.  There are plenty of effective strategies to combat terrorism.  Some are more palatable than others, but agree or not, these strategies have been proven effective.  The problem is that our government not only refuses to acknowledge these viable options, but will brutally attack and smear anyone that tries to sensibly address these shortcomings of our “War on Terror” and domestic counterterrorism efforts.  Today, I am going to talk about the easiest and by far the most effective counterterrorism measure, which the government refuses to employ at our expense.  However, it is up to you whether or not you are now willing to take decisive action against the growing war with fundamentalist Islam or incur the risk and wait till it gets worse.  Either way, I promise you that decisive action, no matter how unpalatable, will ultimately be forced on you and the longer you wait, the more painful it will be for everyone.

The government would make you believe that without the National Security Agency (NSA), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), etc. all spying on you, it is impossible to insure your security.  This is bogus logic.  There is strong evidence to support that domestic surveillance is actually counterproductive to preventing terrorism because it creates a huge amount of distracting data.  Further, if there really are terrorists all over the country ready to attack us and these programs work, then we should be intercepting them planning the attacks routinely.  Let me pose some simple questions to you and allow you to use some basic logic.  Do you ever wonder how the government knows there are terrorists all over?  If the government can know these enemies are here, then why don’t they arrest them or do something about it?  Further, if we already know so much about these extremists and their plans, why do we need to continue to spy on our own people when even the government admits the programs don’t work?  The truth is we don’t and the fearmongering is used to grab more power and control the people.  It doesn’t take a whole lot of money or technology to weed out your extremists and you certainly do not need to violate the Constitution.  However, it may require you to offend some people and not be politically correct.  It is amazing that today we will race to undermine our Constitution and destroy our civil liberties, but fight doggedly against any notion of hurting the feelings of someone that wants to kill us and destroy our civilization.  I am treading dangerously close to sounding like a suddenly well informed Donald Trump here, but we really do need to get our priorities straight.  Until we fix this, the evils of political correctness and tolerance will walk us right into a disaster as a nation.

So here it is…the grand plan for security the hundreds of billions of dollars spent on spying, surveillance, analysts, and bombs could never bring you.  To root these terrorists out Read more

While we were distracted WWIII draws closer thanks to Turkey: Some advice for Russia

Let me be upfront.  Turkey is not an ally and needs to be kicked out of NATO immediately.  Turkey is led by a highly corrupt and fanatical zealot that is playing a suicidal game of chicken with the Russians.  By itself, Turkey would get justifiably stomped by Russia and that would be the end of it.  However, as a NATO ally, Turkey has the ability to suck the US and the world into WWIII by literally picking a fight with Russia.  Most recently, Turkey invaded Iraq and so far has refused to remove its forces against Baghdad’s wishes.  Iraq is now in the process of requesting Russian support to forcibly remove those forces.  This, without doubt, will lead to a huge escalation that hopefully, Europe and the US will have enough sense to distance itself from.  Nonetheless, Turkey’s leader Erdogan is hell bent on provoking a war as a way to solidify his waning grasp on power in Turkey.  Although, I am quite confident Russia has done its homework, let me pontificate for a moment on some points for Russia to consider.

First, Russia can’t be seen as weak and being bullied by Turkey.  Generally this leads directly to escalation, but I am pretty comfortable in saying Russia is the wrong country to pick in this particular game of brinkmanship.  My analysis concludes that NATO will not back Turkey should Russia retaliate in a future confrontation with Turkey over Syria.  As such, Russia should be diplomatic, but be ready to protect their assets with their full military might should they again be threatened by Turkey.  This is a dangerous gamble, but consider that no country in Europe right now looks at Turkey favorably.  Read more

The problem isn’t Islamic Terrorism it is guns according to Emperor Obama

I wrote the following paragraph on October 19th this year as the first of a three part series explaining exactly how gun control and then confiscation would be enacted across the US.  After President Obama’s speech tonight indicting the Second Amendment as the root cause of terrorism inside the US, I thought it was a good time to reintroduce my three part series.

As we wait for the latest round of unconstitutional acts by President Obama respective of his so called new “executive orders” on gun control, which would be better described as edicts, the only question is how far the President will overstep his constitutional authority this time.  In some ways, I hope he oversteps and the backlash catches the Left by surprise and sets them back significantly in the elections.  However, the people we are dealing with are not political amateurs and are masters of spin so I would expect the long war to continue against our nation and culture.  To this end, I would expect more highly politicized false flags used to finalize the “justification” for gun control in the near future.  To those of us not in a propaganda induced coma, we will see that these false flag events exactly for what they are.  We will intuitively know they were not the result of guns; but rather, the result of a nation that has allowed itself to lose its cultural identity and moral foundations, a nation that has become addicted to violence and mind altering drugs, a nation that has been subverted from the inside.  http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2015/10/19/gun-confiscation-goes-mainstream-tyranny-in-the-land-of-the-free/

I have to admit, I am sounding very redundant when I say “I told you so,” but only through making repetitive connections will many of the masses understand that what is going on is not random.  Random acts by their very nature cannot be accurately predicted.  However, when something such as the elite’s gun control agenda can be predicted so specifically in advance, one must at least consider the fact that this is indeed a planned and highly orchestrated effort from the top to disarm and subjugate the United States.  I am sure some of you that have just started reading my articles will be asking how exactly then will this occur.  Well, I detailed the general progression of this plot below in Parts II and III of my series on gun control.  If you are concerned about being disarmed, and you should be, then you need to read all three posts, which lay out the elitist agenda, how it will unfold, and how you can resist it.

Part II: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2015/10/20/part-ii-of-the-gun-confiscation-goes-mainstream-tyranny-in-the-land-of-the-free/

Part III:  http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2015/10/27/part-iii-gun-confiscation-goes-mainstream-tyranny-in-the-land-of-the-free/

Regards,

Guiles Hendrik

December 6, 2015

How to Defeat ISIL: Civil-Military Strategy 101

It comes as no surprise to my readers that not only is ISIL still alive and well as a terrorist state, but arguably has grown in power since the United States began military operations “against” it.  I have routinely published on the fact that the US has no strategy and its leaders are an amateurish joke.  Further, I have been documenting for years that ISIL was born and bred by the CIA as a proxy to serve elitist interests and therefore won’t be “destroyed” anytime soon.  Since then, not only have senior US leaders such as the former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, General Flynn confirmed this fact, but Russia has called our bluff and has shown in just a matter of weeks how quickly ISIL could be smashed if the US actually had a policy to defeat the terrorist nation.  Now that the truth that the US created ISIL is out in the open source and ISIL has predictably grown out of control, should the US actually decide that wiping out the terrorist army they created would be wise, today I discuss what that strategy would entail.  Ironically, even a very general strategy is far more detailed than anything the US has so far put together.  To illustrate just how incompetent our senior leadership is in this regard, Hillary Clinton recently announced that her strategy to defeat ISIL was to “defeat ISIL.”  Really?  It is a wonder ISIL doesn’t control more territory with such moronic imbeciles at the helm.  In order to help these moronic policy makers and senior military officers, let me lay out a basic strategic plan against ISIL.

To begin, let me dispense with your failed Irregular Warfare (IW) approaches, which policy makers love because they think they can win a war on the cheap.  The historical record is quite clear; IW does not decisively win wars, it creates them.  This distinction in military manuals and training unfortunately is all but absent.  Only through determined deliberate action can a war be decisively won.  Other than in a few niche applications, arming, training, and equipping proxy armies has never been successful.  Cyber-attacks, psychological warfare, economic development, and public relations campaigns are equally ineffective against a violent enemy willing to kill to achieve its goals.  “Winning the hearts and minds” is complete bullshit and always has been.  This fiction only existed in political circles too scared to acknowledge reality and the brutality that must accompany warfare.  Anything short of brutality and violence is not warfare and should never be conflated with war.  In fact, if lesser means are suitable, then they should be exhausted.  Understanding this would be far healthier for any nation and would lead to a far less liberal use of pseudo-warfare, which is every bit as violent, but just dressed up for political spin.  Now that we have dispensed this modern “pseudo-warfare” and IW, which are completely fictitious shams respective of actual military strategies, let’s discuss what a real war against ISIL looks like.  I warn you…anything short of the below will only delay a far more brutal and bloody war that ultimately will be fought indiscriminately anyhow or lead to a decisive defeat for the Christian West.

Defeating ISIL like any other enemy requires a full spectrum approach.  On the political front, Saudi Arabia and Qatar must be prevented from providing any type of material support to ISIL.  In particular, until firm compliance was established, all military sales and forms of foreign aid to the said countries must be immediately ceased.  Turkey must also be immediately reigned in and all economic support via the purchase of black market oil must be halted.  If Turkey continued to purchase ISIL produced black market oil, pressure should be ratcheted up against Erdogan’s administration to include exclusion from NATO and the EU as well as economic sanction.  Turkey must also be forced to accept Kurdish military action against ISIL in Syria by reaffirming their right to defend Turkish sovereign territory against Kurdish terrorist factions such as the PKK.  Israel also needs to stay out of it and stop bombing Syrian positions, which by default help ISIL.  Respective of Russia, the US needs to work jointly with Russia to share intelligence and coordinate their military offensives to achieve the maximum impact against ISIL.  Option B would be for the US to completely stay out of the fight with ISIL, completely cease support to any parties involved, let the primary actors in the Middle East fight it out, and then step back in once the smoke clears.  I can entertain either option, which honestly are both viable, but for today’s discussion, I am going to focus on US intervention. Read more

America is fed up with Obama’s lies: America puts boots on ground in Syria as predicted by LMS

It should come as no shock to our readers that the Third Iraq War President Obama initiated has already faltered.  As predicted, the strategy (or lack thereof see: http://www.blackboxwire.com/2014/10/11/islamic-extremism-and-what-lies-ahead-part-ii-the-war-on-isis-and-syria/) did not achieve the desired results so now the Department of Defense (DoD), no doubt testing the waters for the White House, is requesting boots on the ground.  As we warned, mission creep is a dangerous thing and would plague this operation.  What started with just a handful of “advisors,” grew into airstrikes in Iraq and then Syria, then over a thousand troops “on the ground,” and now US troop levels in Iraq will soon reach 3,000.  When this new batch of advisors fails to stop the growth of ISIL, expect Obama to retract another “promise” and have “no choice,” but to commit US combat personnel to the fight in Iraq.  Soon, just like in Vietnam, Obama will be steadily sucked into another full blown war in Iraq that the US will neither win nor be able to afford.

This introductory paragraph could have been snatched from today’s headlines detailing how President Obama walked back his repeated promises not to put American “boots on the ground” in Iraq. However, it is a verbatim cut and paste from an article I wrote just over a year ago predicting EXACTLY what is occurring.  See: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/11/18/update-on-the-third-iraq-war-against-isilisisisaqsyriaetc/#more-768  Not so ironically, you didn’t hear the radio and talk show hosts and other “enlightened” pundits detailing this foreseeable reality a year ago because they are hacks.  However, today the airwaves have been alive with people taking notice.  Savage, Hannity, Beck, Wilkow, O’Reilly, etc. all have been detailing how the President lied and how the strategy they supported to bomb ISIL has not worked.  I say better late than never to the party, but American’s need to wake up now. Read more

Russian transfer of S-300 Air Defense System may force Israeli to initiate war with Iran before winter

Over two decades ago, I began warning that United States’ policies in the Middle East could set the US and world on a trajectory for a major war. Unfortunately, every major policy decision the US has made has exclusively served the interests of the global elite to the detriment of humanity. The trajectory set by these policy decisions has moved the world closer and closer to a full blown world war. More recently, I have warned that the Obama Administration was walking a dangerous foreign policy line in the Middle East that if mismanaged, could lead to horrific consequences. Today, it is become blatantly clear to all but the most ideologically blinded that Obama and his amateur staff have chosen incorrectly and created a perfect storm in the Middle East that will likely lead to a full scale regional war. The culmination of these decisions, no matter their motivation, has set the stage for a showdown between Israel and Iran that is now most likely irreversible. This showdown is what I have previously described as the worst case scenario that must be avoided at all costs. The consequences of which will be catastrophic for not just the Middle East, but the US and the rest of the world. As recently as August, news broke that could finally force Israel into unilateral action against Iran, which will pull the entire region and the US into war, collapse the already sick global economy, and usher in the New World Order.

The event I am speaking of is the Russian announcement that it will move forward with the transfer of S-300 Air Defense Systems to Iran. These sophisticated air defense systems are capable of detecting and successfully interdicting aircraft flown by the Israeli Air Force (IAF) as well as ballistic missiles, drones, and cruise missiles. The potency of this air defense system will alternate the current military balance of the region and has Israel on edge. Read more

Last Minute Survival Analysis Confirmed: Former head of Defense Intelligence Agency confirms US leaders committed the treason of the century when US secretly created terrorist organization known as ISIS/ISIL/IS

Well, once again, I told you so (see LastMinuteSurvival.com and search term “ISIL”). It baffles me how so often people are either willfully ignorant or naively trusting of government even in face of a nearly uninterrupted history of abuses. In just one more case of government deceit and treachery, the truth has finally emerged about how the worst Islamic terrorist organization to emerge in our lifetime rose to power. The truth is the United States armed, trained, equipped, and advised ISIS/ISIL/IS terrorists to carry out the policy plans of the global elite, just as I have explicitly stated for years. This illegal action, more than any other recent revelation, should confirm once and for all that the entire “war on terrorism” has been a manufactured lie from the very beginning. The terrorism “big lie” was fabricated to serve the interests of the global elite. The terrorism boogeyman was created, nursed, and used to convince you through fear, propaganda, and false patriotism to surrender your rights and freedoms in the name of “security.” Now that the truth is out, it is time to use our legal system to root out these enemies of the state by indicting, prosecuting, and punishing every single military and political leader involved in the treason of the century against the US.

Nobody less than the former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, General Flynn, just confirmed that the US knowingly supported Islamic terrorists to form the organization known as ISIS/ISIL/IS. Let me state this again in simple terms so there is zero misconception. The United States secretly and willfully, with full knowledge of the disastrous consequences, set up bases, provided weapons, training, and funding, and then provided intelligence and advisor support to the worst known Islamic terrorists in the world to overthrow a nation that had done nothing to the United States. These terrorists were known at the time to be actively seeking to kill all Christians, crush the West, and specifically destroy the United States. These terrorists were dedicated to killing Americans and many had already taken part in operations against US personnel in Iraq and Afghanistan. Nonetheless, the secret program was ordered so that the ultra-wealthy oil cartels could build a gas pipeline and get richer, undermine Russia, and placate the Israeli lobby in the lead up to a war with Iran. Read more

U.S. Admits Paying Terrorists For Services Rendered In Syria

Well, it isn’t like I haven’t been trying to tell you this for years.  What I find funny is that even after overwhelming evidence surfaces, brainwashed statists still can’t come to grips with the degree of corruption and deceit of our government.  Apparently, they are waiting for the government to tell them they are being bad since that is the only source “credible”…I wonder if they are capable of seeing the lunacy of their logic?  Oh, and by the way, it is apparently costing roughly $10 million a day to arm, train, and equip our enemy so that you the taxpayer can then be charged billions more to defeat them.  The only people laughing are the defense industrialists, financiers, and bought politicians.

Guiles Hendrik

 

This article is reposted from http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-01/us-admits-paying-terrorists-services-rendered-Syria

Submitted by Brandon Tourbeville via ActivistPost.com,

When researchers such as myself have reported that the United States is funding al-Qaeda, Nusra, ISIS and other related terror organizations in Syria, we were not kidding. Still, despite the fact that even the U.S. government itself has admitted that it was funding terroristsdirectly and indirectly through Saudi Arabia, the suggestion was met with disbelief, ridicule, or either entirely ignored.

Now, however, the United States government has admitted that it funds terrorists on the ground in Syria yet again, this time placing an individual dollar amount on the assistance provided.

According to the Pentagon, Syrian “rebels” being trained and “vetted” by the United States are receiving “compensation” to the tune of anywhere between $250 to $400 per month to act as America’s proxy forces in the Middle East. Reuters reports that the payment levels were confirmed by the Pentagon and also that the Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter and Navy Commander Elissa Smith both separately admitted the fact that these “new” terrorists are receiving a stipend. Read more

Global Updates: May 29, 2015

-Seismic activity has markedly increased globally over the last few months and 2015 may prove to be an above average year.  Major quakes have struck the Pacific Ring to include the disastrous quake in Nepal.  Just yesterday evening a large quake struck northern Alaska.  Further and I believe most likely related, volcanic activity is spiking globally.   Just this week a volcano in Southern Japan literally exploded while volcanoes from Chile to Hawaii are again spewing lava and ash.  These events tend to go in cycles as fault lines unzip and pressure is released.  One can reasonable expect more events in the coming months and should be on high alert if they live near/on a fault line, near an active volcano, or along a coast vulnerable to tsunamis.  Further, sustained volcanic activity will affect weather patterns and could lead to cooler than normal temperatures for months after the eruption.  Currently, this is not an issue, but if other major eruptions occur this year and are sustained, this will certainly alter the Earth’s weather because the ash gets swept up into the high atmosphere where it spreads globally and reflects sunlight.

http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/erupting_volcanoes.html

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/

http://www.livescience.com/46576-more-earthquakes-still-random-process.html

-ISIL still holds Ramadi contrary to US Secretary of State John Kerry’s stupid predictions last week.   ISIL has now likely outmaneuvered the Iraqi counter attack claiming to have encircled “on 3 sides” the terrorist army.  I am not sure how that translates to “encircled,” but whether or not there was a problem with the Arabic translation, in plain English that means ISIL has a flank wide open to reinforce or retreat through and they likely exploited this gap.  The fact that we haven’t seen an outright retreat of ISIL from Ramadi, which the Iraqi government would quickly publicize, tells you everything you need to know about the facts on the ground.  Further, as the Iraqi Army bears down on Ramadi, ISIL will no doubt maneuver its main element to attack where the Iraqi Army is not in strength.  I would rate it highly likely that Fallujah, Hit, and areas of Baghdad will be attacked whether or not ISIL conducts a tactical withdrawal from Ramadi.  This tactic has already demonstrated it is effective against the slow and unwieldy government forces.  It wears them down, attrits their forces, and demoralizes the government.  The war will only intensify and if ISIL is not dislodged from Ramadi within the next week, it will likely solidify and hold its gains making any future attempts to dislodge them extremely costly for the Iraqi military.

http://www.newindianexpress.com/world/Isil-Sends-Top-Cleric-to-Show-off-Control-over-Ramadi/2015/05/29/article2838802.ece

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/11639414/Isil-targets-Sunni-families-in-Ramadi-with-revenge-killings.html

http://www.thenational.ae/world/middle-east/15-killed-in-baghdad-hotel-bombings

-The US admits Obama’s ISL “strategy” is not working.  Reports also are trickling out of major dissent within the Pentagon.  Further, as predicted, airstrikes have proved of limited value and now the military is saying it needs to commit more troops.  I warned of this predictable escalation back to a full scale war in the Middle East.  Humility truly is a virtue so I take no please in saying once again, “I told you so.”  In fact, last year, I was so disgusted with even the mere use of the term “strategy,” that I wrote an entire piece blasting the Administration and its completely idiotic, non-strategy, that was predestined to failure.  If you truly want to understand why we are failing and Iraq and why it will only get worse as I verbatim described in my analysis, you need to read and share: http://www.blackboxwire.com/2014/10/11/islamic-extremism-and-what-lies-ahead-part-ii-the-war-on-isis-and-syria/.  You can then read the short follow-up to the above article at:

http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/11/18/update-on-the-third-iraq-war-against-isilisisisaqsyriaetc/.

The five minutes you spend reading these two articles will serve as one of the best primers to understanding the escalating crisis in Iraq and the greater Middle East and why we are getting it wrong.  Rather than just calling out incompetents/incompetence in the government, I am going to simply name key individuals that have legitimate influence and ask them to take notes.  Perhaps 99% will never see the article or read it, but if even 1% takes the time to skim the article, progress is being made.  Today, I want to challenge @Phil_Gaskin, who most likely finds my anti-leftist statements blasphemy, but I want to give him the benefit of the doubt.  Perhaps he is the sole voice of reason in the Administration…I don’t know.  What I do know is he is smart enough to read my articles and understand that by adopting what I am recommending would save everyone a lot of heartache and inject some professionalism into what, to date, has been a never ending policy amateur hour of disaster after disaster.  So to you Phil Gaskin, I challenge you to have a sit down discussion about what a real ISIL strategy should be.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/may/28/hillary-clinton-tied-think-tank-bashes-obamas-isis/?page=all

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/05/29/team-obama-shrugs-at-isis-victories.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/rift-widens-between-obama-us-military-over-strategy-to-fight-islamic-state/2014/09/18/ebdb422e-3f5c-11e4-b03f-de718edeb92f_story.html

-The draconian anti-“Patriot Act” is due to sunset this weekend.  Americans that still value their civil liberties would celebrate this law expiring, but have little optimism anything will change.  In fact, it is likely that President Obama will illegally continue the unconstitutional domestic spy programs with or without faux legal authority.  Not only is this extremely hypocritical of a president that ran on returning our civil liberties and ending the spy state, but it will prove just how lawless our nation has become.  Even after the courts and anyone with basic sense determined that what the Patriot Act was being used to justify was utterly unconstitutional; (Specifically, total collection of electronic records without probable cause or a search warrant.) power hungry and/or bought politicians still are trying to make a case for why this law is needed.  I would immediately point out to anyone to be on guard for the “all or nothing” spin.  The Administration is trying to scare people into believing if the illegal data collection is stopped, we will suddenly become vulnerable.  This is absurd.  First of all, NSA’s domestic collection has to date stopped zero terrorists.  Second, if the Administration was actually worried about US security, they would immediately stop importing Muslims to the US from around the world and particularly, from places like Somalia where everyone and their brother seems to be connected to Al Shabaab.  Finally, NSA will continue to operate in its legitimate mission to protect Americans by returning to foreign collection.  It isn’t as if NSA will cease to function and not have a job if they are no longer targeting Americans.  In fact, they may actually become more effective, efficient, and actually gain some victories over foreign enemies of the state.

Global Updates: May 21, 2015

ISIL holds Ramadi: The White House, Defense Department, and Secretary of State have all down played the fall of Ramadi as a small “target of opportunity” and mild “setback.”  However, in reality, the fall of Ramadi was very foreseeable and a massive military disaster for the Iraqi government.  As I forecasted, Mosul would not be retaken anytime soon and the Obama strategy…or lack thereof, would be a total disaster.  See http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/10/01/islamic-extremism-and-what-lies-ahead-part-ii-the-war-on-isis-and-syria/#more-699 Rather than being beat back, it is now highly likely that ISIL will continue to press its attack while the Iraqi Army is trying to regroup and capture large parts if not all of Fallujah.  If Fallujah falls, Baghdad will finally be seriously threatened by ISIL.

Sirte falls, ISIL takes 3rd major city in 48 hours:  In what is proving to be another example of Obama’s Foreign Policy disaster initiated under Secretary Clinton and amplified under Secretary Kerry, another major city has fallen to ISIL.  However, it is not in Syria or Iraq.  The city is in Libya.  Yes, the country Obama, Rice, Clinton, and Power “liberated” has now had the western city of Sirte overrun by radical Islamists loyal to ISIL.  According to my count that makes the score in just the last 48 hours 3 ISIL: 0 USA.  Ramadi, Palmyra, and now Sirte all have been overrun.  Even if ISIL can’t hold the ground, the fact they took down three major cities in just days is telling of how “successful” the US strategy to combat ISIL has been.  In fact, Obama’s “strategy” has been such a disaster, one would conclude that he couldn’t possibly have been that stupid and the only way this could be occurring was if it was his intent all along.  It is either amateur hour and Obama desperately needs to read some alternative news and hire new NSC advisors or the man is a traitor.

Russia no longer allowing NATO supplies to move across its borders to Afghanistan:  In another foreign policy disaster that has completely escaped the government media complex, Russia has now halted NATO supplies crossing its borders to Afghanistan.  I verbatim warned of this on March 23, 2014 saying the Russians could play this card in retaliation for NATO escalation in the Ukraine and make it extremely painful to maintain our troops in Afghanistan. http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/?s=russia+will+cut+supply+lines Now the US has only one supply route for its forces.  The unreliable and costly southern supply route begins in the Port of Karachi and runs north through Pakistan and into Afghanistan through extremely dangerous Taliban controlled provinces.  Each convoy that is allowed to pass through these areas pays a heavy toll, which in turn is then used to fund Taliban operations.  Further, Pakistan now has gained significant political leverage over Washington to extort any amount of money it wishes to allow passage of critical NATO supplies.  http://rt.com/news/259809-russia-stops-nato-afghanistan-cargo/

FBI making house calls to people concerned about Jade Helm 15:  In what could be viewed as a major escalation bolstering concerns amongst the public over the upcoming Jade Helm 15 exercise, FBI special agents have apparently begun making house calls to concerned citizens that have raised questions publicly.  http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/video-fbi-now-going-door-to-door-interrogating-americans-about-jade-helm-military-exercises-we-follow-pp-with-anything-like-that_05212015 Although, the special agents appear very polite and almost embarrassed to be performing the house calls, the fact they are knocking on doors is chilling.  Ironically, if the intent was to quell fears and concerns as the agents suggest, they are clearly having the exact opposite effect.  I doubt the special agents are so dumb that can’t figure this out, but why they are not speaking out about how ridiculous and counterproductive these visits are is disturbing.  Common sense tells you their real intent is to gauge the subject’s political views and whether or not to deem him a threat.  As agents, they should be well aware that people are allowed to have distrust of the government, dissent, and openly question authority especially, when it is launching an exercise designed to target American citizens in the US.  Whether the intent is to intimidate or not, it is clear field offices have been spun up to believe citizens that simply want the rule of law respected are now the threat.  This has been so hyped by DHS and the DOJ, it is coming at the expense of legitimate threats like MS13 and New Black Panther Party members publicly calling for the execution of police and making good on those threats.  The Justice Department will certainly spin this to say it is just doing its “due diligence” to make sure things are peaceful and safe, but anyone with half a brain sees the biased political motivations forcing agents out to conduct house calls on people that pose zero threat to anyone following the law and respecting the US Constitution.

China and US escalate tensions:  Recent moves by China to exclude airspace to US military aircraft has led to an increase in tensions.  However, this really has nothing to do with some small dots of islands, territorial integrity, or military development.  The deeper issue arising is that China has risen to a peer competitor level status with the US threatening the post-Bretton Woods financial establishment.  Historically, when the bankers were threatened it led directly to war and I doubt this will end differently.  Specifically, China has established a counter balance to the IMF that Washington desperately tried to stop and utterly failed to prevent.  This single act has broken the IMF/World Bank monopoly and the major banking families intend to make China pay for its actions.  Further, China has also been concluding multi-billion dollar oil/gas deals with Russia, which has undermined any ability Washington thought it had to isolate and strong-arm Russia.  In short, China is now seen as a real threat, but not to America, but rather, to the elites of the Western financial monopoly.  As such, you can bet you will see a strong shift toward painting China as a bigger and bigger existential military threat that very well could lead to the outbreak of war.

ISIL Takes Ramadi: World One Step Closer to World War

Perhaps if the Iraqi soldiers used ammunition in their M240 machine gun they would have better results against ISIL.  I loved poorly staged propaganda photos.

Perhaps if the Iraqi soldiers used ammunition in their M240 machine gun they would have better results against ISIL. I loved poorly staged propaganda photos.

This week’s news that ISIL inflicted a heavy defeat upon Iraqi government forces is no surprise.  Whether or not ISIL can hold the ground is yet to be seen, but it sends a strong signal Washington’s strategy in Iraq is failing contrary to the claims of Obama’s paid propagandists.  Further, and more ominous for the world, it moves the Middle East one notch closer to an all-out regional war between Iran and Saudi Arabia.  As I have predicted for years, this coming conflagration is now a near certainty.  At this stage of the on-going proxy war there are simply no peaceful off ramps and it will be a winner takes all struggle.  Either radical Sunni extremists aligned under Saudi Arabia or radical Shia extremists aligned under Iran will prevail, which in either case will trigger a global war that involves the US and Israel.  For those of you saying, “Good, let them kill each other,” a lesson on the global economic implications of a sudden shut down of oil from the Middle East is in order.  In short, outright chaos will ensue.

Those of you that read my work regularly are well aware that I predicted the failure of US efforts to curb ISIL and the fall of Ramadi well over a year ago and the growing regional conflict in the Middle East “years” ago.  In fact, even my recent my global updates from April 20, 2015 speak specifically to Ramadi and ISIL, http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2015/04/20/global-updates/.  In the brief, I specifically called out the Obama Administration as misleading the US on our “success” against ISIL in Tikrit and said that ISIL had simply shifted its forces south to “Ramadi” where I expected it to achieve success.  Below is the exact exert from my forecast. Read more

Who benefits when the world attacks Yemen? Al Qaeda and the Elite.

Who benefits when the world attacks Yemen?  This is a question that policies makers should have asked before allowing the president to start another foreign war.  In fact, it was asked and the answer was Al Qaeda.  Being that Al Qaeda would be the ultimate winner, one must wonder what kind of treason allowed this war to proceed.  In spite of this knowledge, the United States still backed an Arab coalition in a completely unjustified offensive war against Yemen.  The purported purpose was to bring back the ousted president, but anyone with half a brain would immediately know this was preposterous.  Yemenis are not going to ever accept a president that used a foreign militaries to kill its citizens to regain power.  Thus, knowing that the US was aware that by weakening the Houthi rebels they would by default strengthen Al Qaeda and still not achieve their stated goal, one must look deeper to reveal very disturbing consistencies in US Foreign Policy.

To recap, since the ouster of Yemen’s president widely seen as a US puppet, Saudi Arabia has overtly and the US clandestinely bombed Yemen.  The Houthis still retain power and the population is even more aligned against the ousted president than before the war against Yemen was unleashed.  Further, AQ broke into a prison and released 300 terrorist prisoners.  Al Qaeda has also made significant territorial gains and seized military bases containing weapons stockpiles.  In the meantime, a humanitarian disaster has ensued with thousands of civilians being killed in the bombing raids and fighting while many Yemenis are starving to death.  This operation by any bar has been a total failure and is becoming a humanitarian disaster.  However, no one in the media or Congress is calling out President Obama, the Nobel Peace Prize recipient, for starting an unconstitutional war, losing it, and killing thousands of innocent people all while aiding our enemy.  Why? Read more

Global Updates

In addition to my more in-depth posts, I will be routinely adding short bulletized points to keep our readers up to date on global issues.  If you would like more details on a specific issue, please post to comments or email me directly at LMS.

April 20, 2015

  • US sending warships to “prevent” Iran from providing arms to Houthis in Yemen.  The US has greatly contributed to the crisis in Yemen and engaging in a stand-off with Iran over support to each country’s respective proxies is a losing card for the White House to play.  The US (aside from special interests) has nothing to gain from this conflict.  The only possible winner will be AQAP (Al Qaeda).  Yemen’s US backed “president” in exile will never be able to return to “effective” power after using foreign militaries to bomb and kill Yemeni civilians.  Further, the Houthis, which pose no threat to the US will be weakened, but not pushed from power.  The US will no doubt dupe itself into another disastrous conflict.  The end result will be prolonging the chaos in Yemen and AQAP gaining significantly more power.  Just as I warned, the proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia/Qatar in Syria would eventually engulf the entire region and turn hot.  If the US policy in Yemen was to create greater Middle East conflict, empower Islamic extremism, and further destabilize global oil markets, it has achieved its objectives.
  • US arrests suspects attempting to join ISIL.  The US acts as though this was a great crime fighting/anti-terrorism win; however, it is a sign of deeper problems that have been self-inflicted.  Minnesota in particular is a hot bed of Islamic activity because of the suicidal domestic immigration policies that favor and actually import tens of thousands of people into the US annually from countries known for radical Islamism such as Somalia.  In short, it is a self fulfilling prophecy that has been used to justify an unnecessary domestic spy/police state and draconian legislation such as the “Patriot Act.”
  • Iraqi military backed by US and Iran fails to retake key cities from ISIL.  Contrary to rosy claims by the Obama Administration, the Iraqi Army has only scored marginal victories against what appears to be a far more dynamic and better led ISIL force.  Specifically, government forces were able to seize some key areas around Tikrit, but have so far failed to effectively secure the city.  Further, while the Iraqi military was focused north in Tikrit, ISIL has appeared to have shifted its fighting strength to the Ramadi area where it has gained ground in recent weeks.  As predicted, the violence and bloodshed in Iraq will continue and grow as long as the proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia continues to burn.  As one side gains ground, the other side will bolster its support for its proxy until the conflict has grown so big and so violent it will directly involve its original sponsors.  The end result will be a disaster for both the Middle East and the US.
  • Drought in California continues at record levels.  If you haven’t planted a large garden this year, plan to pay more…a lot more, at the grocery store.  As warned in previous articles last winter, food prices have continued to rise.  This price inflation isno where near at its peak with beef prices skyrocketing.  The conditions that continue to cause price hikes will persist.  Crops largely grown in California will see some of the largest spikes such as nuts and lettuces.
    • http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/02/19/californias-water-shortage-will-lead-to-a-spike-in-food-prices-and-economic-peril/
    • http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/02/24/the-impending-food-price-crisis-time-to-plant-your-survival-garden/
    • http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/02/24/feds-withhold-water-to-california-farmers-for-first-time-in-54-years/
  • High taxes and over regulation finally ruining Virginia.  Northern Virginia, an area historically known for its strong economy and growing population has begun to feel the pressure of increasingly socialist governmental policies.  Naturally, the region draws on people working for the federal government and the big bureaucracy mindset has metastasized across the Potomac into the Commonwealth of Virginia.  High taxes, oppressive regulations, and stifling over population have all been the result.  This caustic bureaucratic recipe has led to a fed up population that is now leaving in droves.  Ironically, many of these people leaving were responsible at the ballot boxes for the socialist turn in governance.  Perhaps they learned their lesson and will not repeat their same mistake in the future, but that is doubtful.  As the population growth levels out and then begins to drop, local governments will soon realize budget deficits are growing and they are unable to provide the services originally programmed.  Without undoing what has become a socialist style of governance in the enclave, Northern Virginiais doomed to double down on its current failures and create another communist utopia on the banks of the Potomac.
    • http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/washington-area-population-increase-slowing-down-census-figures-indicate/2015/04/19/34683ab0-d7b5-11e4-8103-fa84725dbf9d_story.html

By Guiles Hendrik

 

 

 

Peace with Iran will lead to war: Part 2

Hardened Iranian Nuclear Facility at Fordo(w)

Hardened Iranian Nuclear Facility at Fordo(w)

Last week I discussed why peace with Iran was the preferred option.  I outlined a number of salient points uninformed talking heads in the media and well paid Israel lobbyists such as the former US Ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton, will never bring up.  In short, the costs of a war with Iran will far outweigh the costs of accepting a turbulent peace.  Even a successful war against Iran will be a Pyric victory and cause an economic collapse in the US.  Further, even if Iran did test a nuclear weapon, we would still have plenty of time to exercise the war option should it be necessary.  Unfortunately, even if the US does manage to broker a peace deal with Iran, war is now close to a certainty.  In the event of a war with Iran, there will be dire implications for the US.  Today I will discuss why war is now imminent, how it will likely be initiated, and the catastrophic effects on the US you must prepare to endure. Read more

Peace with Iran will lead to war, but not why you think: Part 1

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, right, speaks with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Geneva, Switzerland, in January. Kerry will meet again with Zarif this weekend in the Swiss capital as March deadline approaches. (Keystone/ Martial Trezzini/file/Associated Press)

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, right, speaks with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Geneva, Switzerland, in January. Kerry will meet again with Zarif this weekend in the Swiss capital as March deadline approaches. (Keystone/ Martial Trezzini/file/Associated Press)

Over the last decade, I have produced many papers and articles analyzing events in the Middle East and their geopolitical impact for academia, commercial publications, think tanks, and government agencies.  I stand by my track record as one of the most prescient in the business.  To that end, predicting chaos in the Middle East has been easy, but combining the what (violence) with the who, when, why, and how are the far more demanding predictions.  One the worst case scenarios for a broad outbreak of violence in the Middle East has been the possibility of a major war between Israel and Iran.  This conflict would immediately go regional with the on-going proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia pulling in the remaining Middle Eastern countries.  Once it goes regional, it will be nearly impossible for the U.S., Europe, and Russia to remain on the sidelines.  I have described in detail how this would likely play out as well as how it could be prevented in previous posts (see a partial list below).  I am writing today again with a dire warning for anyone willing to listen.  The most recent events occurring across the Middle East are now signaling the worst case scenario of a major conflict with Iran will come to pass as I have previously predicted.  This first article discusses why war with Iran is unnecessary and must be avoided.  Part II will discuss why even with an Iranian deal, war is inevitable and the dire consequences we can expect.  Read more

Why No One Should Serve in the US Military: Your leaders are incompetent and your next Secretary of Defense is no exception.

The face of your next wartime leader...really?

The face of your next wartime leader…really?

As a combat veteran of the wars in both Afghanistan and Iraq, I am going to be very blunt.  Lives depend on being direct and the need for military personnel to come forward and tell the truth.  In fact, it is chilling that no one has called out the insanity taking place before our very eyes within the ranks of the military.  The senior military leadership is incompetent to lead.  Our failures in both Iraq and Afghanistan bare this out.  Today’s testimony by the soon to be next Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter should make it blatantly clear that no one should consider joining our military.  For current active duty and reserve members, run for the door and get the hell out as soon as your obligations allow. Read more

Update on the Third Iraq War against ISIL/ISIS/IS/AQ/Syria/etc.

US Advisors in Iraq begin training. Source dw.de/Getty/Afp

US Advisors in Iraq begin training. Source dw.de/Getty/Afp

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It should come as no shock to our readers that the Third Iraq War President Obama initiated has already faltered.  As predicted, the strategy (or lack thereof see: http://www.blackboxwire.com/2014/10/11/islamic-extremism-and-what-lies-ahead-part-ii-the-war-on-isis-and-syria/) did not achieve the desired results so now the Department of Defense (DoD), no doubt testing the waters for the White House, is requesting boots on the ground.  As we warned, mission creep is a dangerous thing and would plague this operation.  What started with just a handful of “advisors,” grew into airstrikes in Iraq and then Syria, then over a thousand troops “on the ground,” and now US troop levels in Iraq will soon reach 3,000.  When this new batch of advisors fails to stop the growth of ISIL, expect Obama to retract another “promise” and have “no choice,” but to commit US combat personnel to the fight in Iraq.  Soon, just like in Vietnam, Obama will be steadily sucked into another full blown war in Iraq that the US will neither win nor be able to afford. Read more