Our leadership at the White House, CIA, Pentagon, and State Department are unbelievably incompetent, reckless, and corrupt. I just can’t make this up. In another example of the absolute rampant stupidity emanating from the White House and Department of Defense, it appears US policy is now to conduct another unsanctioned military invasion of Libya ostensibly to fight ISIS. Apparently, the US is preparing to provide weapons and training to support select Libyan forces to help them repel the radical Islamic forces Washington previously backed in Libya in 2011. You read that correctly. Just like in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria, the US is now arming factions to fight the very same radical Islamic jihadist factions it armed and supported just five years prior. Watching this train wreck of policy unfold, I can only sarcastically ask, “what could go wrong?” Read more
Archive for Military Industrial Complex
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has announced that in addition to establishing a no fly zone over the Super Bowl, it may shoot down any drones that violate the airspace. In what is a dangerous precedent setting move, the FAA has made US airspace an apparent war zone. For those of you that dare to fly your DJI Phantoms, watch out because you may become the next target for a bored F-16 pilot. I am afraid to speculate now how long it will be before the government takes the next step and begins to shoot down radar blips that turn out to be manned civilian aircraft.
I have to admit, as long as no one was hurt, I would be interested to actually see the FAA “shoot down” a drone. Of course I think the entire thing is an absurd waste of resources and a very dangerous precedent to set in what is supposed to be a free country. By “shoot down,” I hope the FAA actually means through the use of electronic jamming because the idea of a half million dollar Sidewinder missile being wasted on a $1,000 drone only seems reasonable to Raytheon, the Sidewinder’s primary manufacturer. Further, the idea of an almost 200 pound missile with a 25 pound warhead detonating over a densely populated area sounds reckless and stupid and most likely would cause far more damage than any civilian drone. Read more
Russia sets chessboard for major Middle East war and transition to global dominance with one apocalyptic move
The United States has enjoyed the preeminent position globally as well as the Middle East for the last half a century. Like all empires, the sun has risen and now may be setting on the American century. This is due in no small part to atrocious leadership and imbecilic foreign policy controlled by ideologues and special interests. In particular, the US has lost significant influence in the Middle East over the last decade by turning allies into enemies and sovereign nations into hostile failed states. In the process, the US created leadership vacuums that it was unable or unwilling to fill. In those voids reentered old actors with Russia leading the way. With Russia now firmly retrenched in the Middle East, the US can no longer afford to continue with business as usual. The US must reevaluate its entire foreign policy positions and design a new grand strategy recognizing Russia is no longer a spoiler, but the kingmaker in the Middle East. Russia has set the chessboard in the Middle East to achieve global dominance in one apocalyptic move. As such, if there is to be war or peace, analysts should be looking toward Russia. Read more
The news wires lit up last night with news North Korea tested a hydrogen bomb. If true, North Korea possessing the technology to create a thermo-nuclear weapon would be troubling to say the least. However, the far greater threat will come from what North Korea does with the technology.
Let’s be clear, if then President Bill Clinton had not allowed North Korea to develop nuclear weapons we wouldn’t be in the mess. However, Clinton was completely wrong about North Korea and we are paying the price for his strategic miscalculation. I don’t personally believe North Korea has the capability or will to directly attack the United States, but I do believe the hermit kingdom would sell the technology to anyone and this is why we need to be worried. Read more
Instead of exposing lies and treason within the top tiers of government, today, I am going to simply make a plea to the service members of the US armed forces and those thinking about joining. The message is simple. If you aren’t in, don’t join. If you are currently in the service, do what you have to do to survive, bring your troops home safely, and get out. The missions are garbage, the wars are lies, and you are serving the special interests of the elite, not your nation. Don’t be a fool and buy into the propaganda. Contrary to your leadership that sold you out long ago, I actually care about your well-being and the future of this nation. If I can wake even one person up and save them from being killed or heinously wounded in another unnecessary war, this post was worth infinitely more than the time it took to compose.
The issue of service in today’s military was directly put to me by a mother who asked whether I thought her son should enlist in the Marines. Knowing this lady and her son, I thought long and hard before answering her with a definitive, “No.” The lady knew that I had spent many years in the military in both the enlisted and officer ranks and had served in combat in both Iraq and Afghanistan so seemed taken aback by my blunt answer. Clearly surprised, she asked what my rationale was for saying it was a bad idea. I told her the military was bad enough while I was in the service, but the waste and abuse of the lives of our service members is now at the worst levels since Vietnam. Our troops are simply cannon fodder for wars the US not only has engineered, but has no intention of decisively ending. Granted, the equipment and training the military provides is better than it ever has been, but our senior leadership is the worst I have ever seen, there is no will or strategy to win, and our troops are being left for dead in places like Afghanistan for political expedience. Further, all of our efforts, as honorable as they were, were completely in vain in Iraq and Afghanistan because of the massive dereliction in our leadership. If our leadership and all of NATO couldn’t even handle the Taliban, what does your survivability look like in the military when the elites pick the next fight with an actual competent enemy like Russia or China? Until the US military purges its general staff and the country elects a competent Commander-in-Chief, run for the door.
Just today in Afghanistan we lost another American serving with a special operations unit. This makes me sick to my stomach with sadness. Dropping all of the patriotic propaganda, what did that operator give his life for? How is the loss even remotely justifiable? Read more
Readers of Last Minute Survival are well aware that I have been correctly predicting for years the progression of events in the Middle East toward a total regional conflagration. Speaking broadly of a few key events, I predicted the rise of ISIL, the spread of the “civil war in Syria” to Iraq, and the proxy war between Saudi Arabia (Sunni) and Iran (Shia) going hot. The execution of a prominent dissident Shiite cleric in Saudi Arabia just took this conflict one notch closer to a total war, which the United States is not prepared. The brewing war has triggered a nuclear arms race in the Middle East and it now appears averting a massive war will not be possible. The only question is how to best mitigate the damage.
This escalation has not been fully appreciated in the US and in fact seems to have been discounted by the US Department of State, which will certainly be “surprised” when both countries begin to mobilize their militaries. Both nations are now moving toward a war footing, which has initiated a secret nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Iran knows Saudi Arabia has a far more modern military and the backing of the United States, the Gulf Coast Countries, and possibly Israel, Turkey, and Pakistan. Iran is also threatened by Saudi backed Sunni extremists fighting to overthrow its allies to the west in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon while being boxed in by another Saudi backed Sunni extremist group, the Taliban, to its east in Afghanistan. Iran knows Pakistan has agreed to supply Saudi Arabia with nuclear weapons. Iran’s generals are not stupid and assess that they must obtain nuclear weapons if they have any hope of successfully defending Iran. They are also racing to improve their anti-access and missile technologies to thwart any type of amphibious invasion from the US while effectively being able to attack Saudi Arabia’s water and oil installations from afar. Further, as I have warned, Iran has been racing to operationally deploy advanced, Russian, S-300 air defense systems, which will effectively deny Iranian airspace to all but 5th Generation fighter/attack aircraft.
As overwhelming as the odds may seem to Iran, Saudi Arabia is justifiably terrified of a powerful Iran. What Iran lacks in high tech military hardware, it has in willpower and individual fighting capability, which will prove far more potent than anything the Saudis can muster for a war. Those of us that have worked with the Saudi military know that the Saudi military is a paper tiger. The Saudis are lazy and incompetent as warriors, but they have a big checkbook that keeps the US military industrial complex in business. This keeps Washington and the Pentagon from ever effectively addressing the issue, which will become brutally apparent when a direct conflict between the nations breaks out. In a head to head fight, Iran’s fighters are better trained, better organized, and far more motivated than even the best Saudi units. In fact, aside from perhaps Jordan, the Arab armies are a joke. Most are probably more likely to shoot each other (intentionally or not) before ever fielding an effective force against an enemy. Further, although Iran has proven its ability to project forces beyond its borders successfully, and would no doubt use Iraq as a staging area for a land invasion of Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia has no such force projection capability. Without the ability to actually invade and defeat Iran, Saudi Arabia could only at best win a partial victory over Iran. As such, Saudi Arabia must rely on buying off Washington to intervene and fight its war with American troops and treasure. The Pentagon at least gets this, but what isn’t well understood by either the generals or the White House is that the Saudi backup plan if Washington bulks is to have a credible nuclear weapons capability that they will use if Washington won’t act. The US is totally unprepared for and to date has no policy to even remotely address. Read more
Let me be upfront. Turkey is not an ally and needs to be kicked out of NATO immediately. Turkey is led by a highly corrupt and fanatical zealot that is playing a suicidal game of chicken with the Russians. By itself, Turkey would get justifiably stomped by Russia and that would be the end of it. However, as a NATO ally, Turkey has the ability to suck the US and the world into WWIII by literally picking a fight with Russia. Most recently, Turkey invaded Iraq and so far has refused to remove its forces against Baghdad’s wishes. Iraq is now in the process of requesting Russian support to forcibly remove those forces. This, without doubt, will lead to a huge escalation that hopefully, Europe and the US will have enough sense to distance itself from. Nonetheless, Turkey’s leader Erdogan is hell bent on provoking a war as a way to solidify his waning grasp on power in Turkey. Although, I am quite confident Russia has done its homework, let me pontificate for a moment on some points for Russia to consider.
First, Russia can’t be seen as weak and being bullied by Turkey. Generally this leads directly to escalation, but I am pretty comfortable in saying Russia is the wrong country to pick in this particular game of brinkmanship. My analysis concludes that NATO will not back Turkey should Russia retaliate in a future confrontation with Turkey over Syria. As such, Russia should be diplomatic, but be ready to protect their assets with their full military might should they again be threatened by Turkey. This is a dangerous gamble, but consider that no country in Europe right now looks at Turkey favorably. Read more
It should come as no shock to our readers that the Third Iraq War President Obama initiated has already faltered. As predicted, the strategy (or lack thereof see: http://www.blackboxwire.com/2014/10/11/islamic-extremism-and-what-lies-ahead-part-ii-the-war-on-isis-and-syria/) did not achieve the desired results so now the Department of Defense (DoD), no doubt testing the waters for the White House, is requesting boots on the ground. As we warned, mission creep is a dangerous thing and would plague this operation. What started with just a handful of “advisors,” grew into airstrikes in Iraq and then Syria, then over a thousand troops “on the ground,” and now US troop levels in Iraq will soon reach 3,000. When this new batch of advisors fails to stop the growth of ISIL, expect Obama to retract another “promise” and have “no choice,” but to commit US combat personnel to the fight in Iraq. Soon, just like in Vietnam, Obama will be steadily sucked into another full blown war in Iraq that the US will neither win nor be able to afford.
This introductory paragraph could have been snatched from today’s headlines detailing how President Obama walked back his repeated promises not to put American “boots on the ground” in Iraq. However, it is a verbatim cut and paste from an article I wrote just over a year ago predicting EXACTLY what is occurring. See: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/11/18/update-on-the-third-iraq-war-against-isilisisisaqsyriaetc/#more-768 Not so ironically, you didn’t hear the radio and talk show hosts and other “enlightened” pundits detailing this foreseeable reality a year ago because they are hacks. However, today the airwaves have been alive with people taking notice. Savage, Hannity, Beck, Wilkow, O’Reilly, etc. all have been detailing how the President lied and how the strategy they supported to bomb ISIL has not worked. I say better late than never to the party, but American’s need to wake up now. Read more
Last Minute Survival Analysis Confirmed: Former head of Defense Intelligence Agency confirms US leaders committed the treason of the century when US secretly created terrorist organization known as ISIS/ISIL/IS
Well, once again, I told you so (see LastMinuteSurvival.com and search term “ISIL”). It baffles me how so often people are either willfully ignorant or naively trusting of government even in face of a nearly uninterrupted history of abuses. In just one more case of government deceit and treachery, the truth has finally emerged about how the worst Islamic terrorist organization to emerge in our lifetime rose to power. The truth is the United States armed, trained, equipped, and advised ISIS/ISIL/IS terrorists to carry out the policy plans of the global elite, just as I have explicitly stated for years. This illegal action, more than any other recent revelation, should confirm once and for all that the entire “war on terrorism” has been a manufactured lie from the very beginning. The terrorism “big lie” was fabricated to serve the interests of the global elite. The terrorism boogeyman was created, nursed, and used to convince you through fear, propaganda, and false patriotism to surrender your rights and freedoms in the name of “security.” Now that the truth is out, it is time to use our legal system to root out these enemies of the state by indicting, prosecuting, and punishing every single military and political leader involved in the treason of the century against the US.
Nobody less than the former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, General Flynn, just confirmed that the US knowingly supported Islamic terrorists to form the organization known as ISIS/ISIL/IS. Let me state this again in simple terms so there is zero misconception. The United States secretly and willfully, with full knowledge of the disastrous consequences, set up bases, provided weapons, training, and funding, and then provided intelligence and advisor support to the worst known Islamic terrorists in the world to overthrow a nation that had done nothing to the United States. These terrorists were known at the time to be actively seeking to kill all Christians, crush the West, and specifically destroy the United States. These terrorists were dedicated to killing Americans and many had already taken part in operations against US personnel in Iraq and Afghanistan. Nonetheless, the secret program was ordered so that the ultra-wealthy oil cartels could build a gas pipeline and get richer, undermine Russia, and placate the Israeli lobby in the lead up to a war with Iran. Read more
Over the last two weeks, major movements have been taking place economically across the globe. These events are moving international markets into “correction” territory, but cumulatively, could quickly spiral into a global meltdown of markets. Although, the US hasn’t reached critical mass and may actually experience a short term strengthening of markets as international markets flee to the US for safety; the signs of a major crash are now flashing red. What should you look for and what can you do?
Four major places to watch right now are Greece/European Union (EU), China, oil, and bonds. Greece has the potential to start a ripple effect against austerity across the EU triggering a banking run, panic, and global losses. This could unhinge the massive derivatives market and alone cause a global economic collapse. China is so big now that the recent losses in their market will spread globally this week if the losses are not stabilized. Any major downturn in China’s economy will further increase the already saturated oil market driving the price per barrel even lower. If oil continues to drop and stay low, US oil producing states will feel this the hardest, which will sharply increase US unemployment numbers. The loss of high paying jobs will throw even the totally fudged US financial numbers clearly back into recession territory and drag the world back down with it. Finally, the bond market has seen a liquidity crunch that likely will only get worse. If governments can’t manage to keep their bond yields low, the already massive debt loads (and payments on interest) these nations are carrying will explode and force them into financial crises far worse than anything Greece is facing.
Presently, the situation in Greece is very serious. Read more
Well, it isn’t like I haven’t been trying to tell you this for years. What I find funny is that even after overwhelming evidence surfaces, brainwashed statists still can’t come to grips with the degree of corruption and deceit of our government. Apparently, they are waiting for the government to tell them they are being bad since that is the only source “credible”…I wonder if they are capable of seeing the lunacy of their logic? Oh, and by the way, it is apparently costing roughly $10 million a day to arm, train, and equip our enemy so that you the taxpayer can then be charged billions more to defeat them. The only people laughing are the defense industrialists, financiers, and bought politicians.
This article is reposted from http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-01/us-admits-paying-terrorists-services-rendered-Syria
When researchers such as myself have reported that the United States is funding al-Qaeda, Nusra, ISIS and other related terror organizations in Syria, we were not kidding. Still, despite the fact that even the U.S. government itself has admitted that it was funding terrorists– directly and indirectly through Saudi Arabia, the suggestion was met with disbelief, ridicule, or either entirely ignored.
Now, however, the United States government has admitted that it funds terrorists on the ground in Syria yet again, this time placing an individual dollar amount on the assistance provided.
According to the Pentagon, Syrian “rebels” being trained and “vetted” by the United States are receiving “compensation” to the tune of anywhere between $250 to $400 per month to act as America’s proxy forces in the Middle East. Reuters reports that the payment levels were confirmed by the Pentagon and also that the Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter and Navy Commander Elissa Smith both separately admitted the fact that these “new” terrorists are receiving a stipend. Read more
-Seismic activity has markedly increased globally over the last few months and 2015 may prove to be an above average year. Major quakes have struck the Pacific Ring to include the disastrous quake in Nepal. Just yesterday evening a large quake struck northern Alaska. Further and I believe most likely related, volcanic activity is spiking globally. Just this week a volcano in Southern Japan literally exploded while volcanoes from Chile to Hawaii are again spewing lava and ash. These events tend to go in cycles as fault lines unzip and pressure is released. One can reasonable expect more events in the coming months and should be on high alert if they live near/on a fault line, near an active volcano, or along a coast vulnerable to tsunamis. Further, sustained volcanic activity will affect weather patterns and could lead to cooler than normal temperatures for months after the eruption. Currently, this is not an issue, but if other major eruptions occur this year and are sustained, this will certainly alter the Earth’s weather because the ash gets swept up into the high atmosphere where it spreads globally and reflects sunlight.
-ISIL still holds Ramadi contrary to US Secretary of State John Kerry’s stupid predictions last week. ISIL has now likely outmaneuvered the Iraqi counter attack claiming to have encircled “on 3 sides” the terrorist army. I am not sure how that translates to “encircled,” but whether or not there was a problem with the Arabic translation, in plain English that means ISIL has a flank wide open to reinforce or retreat through and they likely exploited this gap. The fact that we haven’t seen an outright retreat of ISIL from Ramadi, which the Iraqi government would quickly publicize, tells you everything you need to know about the facts on the ground. Further, as the Iraqi Army bears down on Ramadi, ISIL will no doubt maneuver its main element to attack where the Iraqi Army is not in strength. I would rate it highly likely that Fallujah, Hit, and areas of Baghdad will be attacked whether or not ISIL conducts a tactical withdrawal from Ramadi. This tactic has already demonstrated it is effective against the slow and unwieldy government forces. It wears them down, attrits their forces, and demoralizes the government. The war will only intensify and if ISIL is not dislodged from Ramadi within the next week, it will likely solidify and hold its gains making any future attempts to dislodge them extremely costly for the Iraqi military.
-The US admits Obama’s ISL “strategy” is not working. Reports also are trickling out of major dissent within the Pentagon. Further, as predicted, airstrikes have proved of limited value and now the military is saying it needs to commit more troops. I warned of this predictable escalation back to a full scale war in the Middle East. Humility truly is a virtue so I take no please in saying once again, “I told you so.” In fact, last year, I was so disgusted with even the mere use of the term “strategy,” that I wrote an entire piece blasting the Administration and its completely idiotic, non-strategy, that was predestined to failure. If you truly want to understand why we are failing and Iraq and why it will only get worse as I verbatim described in my analysis, you need to read and share: http://www.blackboxwire.com/2014/10/11/islamic-extremism-and-what-lies-ahead-part-ii-the-war-on-isis-and-syria/. You can then read the short follow-up to the above article at:
The five minutes you spend reading these two articles will serve as one of the best primers to understanding the escalating crisis in Iraq and the greater Middle East and why we are getting it wrong. Rather than just calling out incompetents/incompetence in the government, I am going to simply name key individuals that have legitimate influence and ask them to take notes. Perhaps 99% will never see the article or read it, but if even 1% takes the time to skim the article, progress is being made. Today, I want to challenge @Phil_Gaskin, who most likely finds my anti-leftist statements blasphemy, but I want to give him the benefit of the doubt. Perhaps he is the sole voice of reason in the Administration…I don’t know. What I do know is he is smart enough to read my articles and understand that by adopting what I am recommending would save everyone a lot of heartache and inject some professionalism into what, to date, has been a never ending policy amateur hour of disaster after disaster. So to you Phil Gaskin, I challenge you to have a sit down discussion about what a real ISIL strategy should be.
-The draconian anti-“Patriot Act” is due to sunset this weekend. Americans that still value their civil liberties would celebrate this law expiring, but have little optimism anything will change. In fact, it is likely that President Obama will illegally continue the unconstitutional domestic spy programs with or without faux legal authority. Not only is this extremely hypocritical of a president that ran on returning our civil liberties and ending the spy state, but it will prove just how lawless our nation has become. Even after the courts and anyone with basic sense determined that what the Patriot Act was being used to justify was utterly unconstitutional; (Specifically, total collection of electronic records without probable cause or a search warrant.) power hungry and/or bought politicians still are trying to make a case for why this law is needed. I would immediately point out to anyone to be on guard for the “all or nothing” spin. The Administration is trying to scare people into believing if the illegal data collection is stopped, we will suddenly become vulnerable. This is absurd. First of all, NSA’s domestic collection has to date stopped zero terrorists. Second, if the Administration was actually worried about US security, they would immediately stop importing Muslims to the US from around the world and particularly, from places like Somalia where everyone and their brother seems to be connected to Al Shabaab. Finally, NSA will continue to operate in its legitimate mission to protect Americans by returning to foreign collection. It isn’t as if NSA will cease to function and not have a job if they are no longer targeting Americans. In fact, they may actually become more effective, efficient, and actually gain some victories over foreign enemies of the state.
This week’s news that ISIL inflicted a heavy defeat upon Iraqi government forces is no surprise. Whether or not ISIL can hold the ground is yet to be seen, but it sends a strong signal Washington’s strategy in Iraq is failing contrary to the claims of Obama’s paid propagandists. Further, and more ominous for the world, it moves the Middle East one notch closer to an all-out regional war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. As I have predicted for years, this coming conflagration is now a near certainty. At this stage of the on-going proxy war there are simply no peaceful off ramps and it will be a winner takes all struggle. Either radical Sunni extremists aligned under Saudi Arabia or radical Shia extremists aligned under Iran will prevail, which in either case will trigger a global war that involves the US and Israel. For those of you saying, “Good, let them kill each other,” a lesson on the global economic implications of a sudden shut down of oil from the Middle East is in order. In short, outright chaos will ensue.
Those of you that read my work regularly are well aware that I predicted the failure of US efforts to curb ISIL and the fall of Ramadi well over a year ago and the growing regional conflict in the Middle East “years” ago. In fact, even my recent my global updates from April 20, 2015 speak specifically to Ramadi and ISIL, http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2015/04/20/global-updates/. In the brief, I specifically called out the Obama Administration as misleading the US on our “success” against ISIL in Tikrit and said that ISIL had simply shifted its forces south to “Ramadi” where I expected it to achieve success. Below is the exact exert from my forecast. Read more
Who benefits when the world attacks Yemen? This is a question that policies makers should have asked before allowing the president to start another foreign war. In fact, it was asked and the answer was Al Qaeda. Being that Al Qaeda would be the ultimate winner, one must wonder what kind of treason allowed this war to proceed. In spite of this knowledge, the United States still backed an Arab coalition in a completely unjustified offensive war against Yemen. The purported purpose was to bring back the ousted president, but anyone with half a brain would immediately know this was preposterous. Yemenis are not going to ever accept a president that used a foreign militaries to kill its citizens to regain power. Thus, knowing that the US was aware that by weakening the Houthi rebels they would by default strengthen Al Qaeda and still not achieve their stated goal, one must look deeper to reveal very disturbing consistencies in US Foreign Policy.
To recap, since the ouster of Yemen’s president widely seen as a US puppet, Saudi Arabia has overtly and the US clandestinely bombed Yemen. The Houthis still retain power and the population is even more aligned against the ousted president than before the war against Yemen was unleashed. Further, AQ broke into a prison and released 300 terrorist prisoners. Al Qaeda has also made significant territorial gains and seized military bases containing weapons stockpiles. In the meantime, a humanitarian disaster has ensued with thousands of civilians being killed in the bombing raids and fighting while many Yemenis are starving to death. This operation by any bar has been a total failure and is becoming a humanitarian disaster. However, no one in the media or Congress is calling out President Obama, the Nobel Peace Prize recipient, for starting an unconstitutional war, losing it, and killing thousands of innocent people all while aiding our enemy. Why? Read more
In addition to my more in-depth posts, I will be routinely adding short bulletized points to keep our readers up to date on global issues. If you would like more details on a specific issue, please post to comments or email me directly at LMS.
April 20, 2015
- US sending warships to “prevent” Iran from providing arms to Houthis in Yemen. The US has greatly contributed to the crisis in Yemen and engaging in a stand-off with Iran over support to each country’s respective proxies is a losing card for the White House to play. The US (aside from special interests) has nothing to gain from this conflict. The only possible winner will be AQAP (Al Qaeda). Yemen’s US backed “president” in exile will never be able to return to “effective” power after using foreign militaries to bomb and kill Yemeni civilians. Further, the Houthis, which pose no threat to the US will be weakened, but not pushed from power. The US will no doubt dupe itself into another disastrous conflict. The end result will be prolonging the chaos in Yemen and AQAP gaining significantly more power. Just as I warned, the proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia/Qatar in Syria would eventually engulf the entire region and turn hot. If the US policy in Yemen was to create greater Middle East conflict, empower Islamic extremism, and further destabilize global oil markets, it has achieved its objectives.
- US arrests suspects attempting to join ISIL. The US acts as though this was a great crime fighting/anti-terrorism win; however, it is a sign of deeper problems that have been self-inflicted. Minnesota in particular is a hot bed of Islamic activity because of the suicidal domestic immigration policies that favor and actually import tens of thousands of people into the US annually from countries known for radical Islamism such as Somalia. In short, it is a self fulfilling prophecy that has been used to justify an unnecessary domestic spy/police state and draconian legislation such as the “Patriot Act.”
- Iraqi military backed by US and Iran fails to retake key cities from ISIL. Contrary to rosy claims by the Obama Administration, the Iraqi Army has only scored marginal victories against what appears to be a far more dynamic and better led ISIL force. Specifically, government forces were able to seize some key areas around Tikrit, but have so far failed to effectively secure the city. Further, while the Iraqi military was focused north in Tikrit, ISIL has appeared to have shifted its fighting strength to the Ramadi area where it has gained ground in recent weeks. As predicted, the violence and bloodshed in Iraq will continue and grow as long as the proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia continues to burn. As one side gains ground, the other side will bolster its support for its proxy until the conflict has grown so big and so violent it will directly involve its original sponsors. The end result will be a disaster for both the Middle East and the US.
- Drought in California continues at record levels. If you haven’t planted a large garden this year, plan to pay more…a lot more, at the grocery store. As warned in previous articles last winter, food prices have continued to rise. This price inflation isno where near at its peak with beef prices skyrocketing. The conditions that continue to cause price hikes will persist. Crops largely grown in California will see some of the largest spikes such as nuts and lettuces.
- High taxes and over regulation finally ruining Virginia. Northern Virginia, an area historically known for its strong economy and growing population has begun to feel the pressure of increasingly socialist governmental policies. Naturally, the region draws on people working for the federal government and the big bureaucracy mindset has metastasized across the Potomac into the Commonwealth of Virginia. High taxes, oppressive regulations, and stifling over population have all been the result. This caustic bureaucratic recipe has led to a fed up population that is now leaving in droves. Ironically, many of these people leaving were responsible at the ballot boxes for the socialist turn in governance. Perhaps they learned their lesson and will not repeat their same mistake in the future, but that is doubtful. As the population growth levels out and then begins to drop, local governments will soon realize budget deficits are growing and they are unable to provide the services originally programmed. Without undoing what has become a socialist style of governance in the enclave, Northern Virginiais doomed to double down on its current failures and create another communist utopia on the banks of the Potomac.
By Guiles Hendrik
Last week I discussed why peace with Iran was the preferred option. I outlined a number of salient points uninformed talking heads in the media and well paid Israel lobbyists such as the former US Ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton, will never bring up. In short, the costs of a war with Iran will far outweigh the costs of accepting a turbulent peace. Even a successful war against Iran will be a Pyric victory and cause an economic collapse in the US. Further, even if Iran did test a nuclear weapon, we would still have plenty of time to exercise the war option should it be necessary. Unfortunately, even if the US does manage to broker a peace deal with Iran, war is now close to a certainty. In the event of a war with Iran, there will be dire implications for the US. Today I will discuss why war is now imminent, how it will likely be initiated, and the catastrophic effects on the US you must prepare to endure. Read more
Over the last decade, I have produced many papers and articles analyzing events in the Middle East and their geopolitical impact for academia, commercial publications, think tanks, and government agencies. I stand by my track record as one of the most prescient in the business. To that end, predicting chaos in the Middle East has been easy, but combining the what (violence) with the who, when, why, and how are the far more demanding predictions. One the worst case scenarios for a broad outbreak of violence in the Middle East has been the possibility of a major war between Israel and Iran. This conflict would immediately go regional with the on-going proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia pulling in the remaining Middle Eastern countries. Once it goes regional, it will be nearly impossible for the U.S., Europe, and Russia to remain on the sidelines. I have described in detail how this would likely play out as well as how it could be prevented in previous posts (see a partial list below). I am writing today again with a dire warning for anyone willing to listen. The most recent events occurring across the Middle East are now signaling the worst case scenario of a major conflict with Iran will come to pass as I have previously predicted. This first article discusses why war with Iran is unnecessary and must be avoided. Part II will discuss why even with an Iranian deal, war is inevitable and the dire consequences we can expect. Read more
On December 28, 2014, the US and NATO declared an end to the mission and therefore the war in Afghanistan. A Taliban statement from Zabihullah Mujahidon, a Taliban spokesman, left no doubt to how it was interpreted according to Reuters.
“ISAF rolled up its flag in an atmosphere of failure and disappointment without having achieved anything substantial or tangible.”
Washington may not like the statement and downplay it, but it doesn’t change the reality that the statement is accurate. Not so ironically, the US and NATO have been mute over the success of the war. No celebrations, no parades, no victory speeches…the absence of all of this should signal that our leaders know it was a failure. In fact, not only did the combined force of NATO and the US not achieve a decisive victory over the Taliban, they suffered a strategic defeat. Read more
It should come as no shock to our readers that the Third Iraq War President Obama initiated has already faltered. As predicted, the strategy (or lack thereof see: http://www.blackboxwire.com/2014/10/11/islamic-extremism-and-what-lies-ahead-part-ii-the-war-on-isis-and-syria/) did not achieve the desired results so now the Department of Defense (DoD), no doubt testing the waters for the White House, is requesting boots on the ground. As we warned, mission creep is a dangerous thing and would plague this operation. What started with just a handful of “advisors,” grew into airstrikes in Iraq and then Syria, then over a thousand troops “on the ground,” and now US troop levels in Iraq will soon reach 3,000. When this new batch of advisors fails to stop the growth of ISIL, expect Obama to retract another “promise” and have “no choice,” but to commit US combat personnel to the fight in Iraq. Soon, just like in Vietnam, Obama will be steadily sucked into another full blown war in Iraq that the US will neither win nor be able to afford. Read more
I have warned for years that the Syrian Rebels and now ISIL have chemical weapons. However, that notion was dismissed repeatedly by the mainstream media until the State Department inadvertently admitted that ISIL used chemical weapons on the Kurds. Of course that major revelation caused at least a few people to raise the question of the origin of these said chemical weapons. Realizing a major scandal was about to erupt, the White House went into full damage control mode and immediately set about working with the New York Times to put out a story to redirect and mislead the public. The Times story claims ISIL’s chemical weapons came from undestroyed Iraqi stockpiles, which as I will show, is a patently false claim of historical revisionism. Read more