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Global Updates: May 21, 2015

ISIL holds Ramadi: The White House, Defense Department, and Secretary of State have all down played the fall of Ramadi as a small “target of opportunity” and mild “setback.”  However, in reality, the fall of Ramadi was very foreseeable and a massive military disaster for the Iraqi government.  As I forecasted, Mosul would not be retaken anytime soon and the Obama strategy…or lack thereof, would be a total disaster.  See http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/10/01/islamic-extremism-and-what-lies-ahead-part-ii-the-war-on-isis-and-syria/#more-699 Rather than being beat back, it is now highly likely that ISIL will continue to press its attack while the Iraqi Army is trying to regroup and capture large parts if not all of Fallujah.  If Fallujah falls, Baghdad will finally be seriously threatened by ISIL.

Sirte falls, ISIL takes 3rd major city in 48 hours:  In what is proving to be another example of Obama’s Foreign Policy disaster initiated under Secretary Clinton and amplified under Secretary Kerry, another major city has fallen to ISIL.  However, it is not in Syria or Iraq.  The city is in Libya.  Yes, the country Obama, Rice, Clinton, and Power “liberated” has now had the western city of Sirte overrun by radical Islamists loyal to ISIL.  According to my count that makes the score in just the last 48 hours 3 ISIL: 0 USA.  Ramadi, Palmyra, and now Sirte all have been overrun.  Even if ISIL can’t hold the ground, the fact they took down three major cities in just days is telling of how “successful” the US strategy to combat ISIL has been.  In fact, Obama’s “strategy” has been such a disaster, one would conclude that he couldn’t possibly have been that stupid and the only way this could be occurring was if it was his intent all along.  It is either amateur hour and Obama desperately needs to read some alternative news and hire new NSC advisors or the man is a traitor.

Russia no longer allowing NATO supplies to move across its borders to Afghanistan:  In another foreign policy disaster that has completely escaped the government media complex, Russia has now halted NATO supplies crossing its borders to Afghanistan.  I verbatim warned of this on March 23, 2014 saying the Russians could play this card in retaliation for NATO escalation in the Ukraine and make it extremely painful to maintain our troops in Afghanistan. http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/?s=russia+will+cut+supply+lines Now the US has only one supply route for its forces.  The unreliable and costly southern supply route begins in the Port of Karachi and runs north through Pakistan and into Afghanistan through extremely dangerous Taliban controlled provinces.  Each convoy that is allowed to pass through these areas pays a heavy toll, which in turn is then used to fund Taliban operations.  Further, Pakistan now has gained significant political leverage over Washington to extort any amount of money it wishes to allow passage of critical NATO supplies.  http://rt.com/news/259809-russia-stops-nato-afghanistan-cargo/

FBI making house calls to people concerned about Jade Helm 15:  In what could be viewed as a major escalation bolstering concerns amongst the public over the upcoming Jade Helm 15 exercise, FBI special agents have apparently begun making house calls to concerned citizens that have raised questions publicly.  http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/video-fbi-now-going-door-to-door-interrogating-americans-about-jade-helm-military-exercises-we-follow-pp-with-anything-like-that_05212015 Although, the special agents appear very polite and almost embarrassed to be performing the house calls, the fact they are knocking on doors is chilling.  Ironically, if the intent was to quell fears and concerns as the agents suggest, they are clearly having the exact opposite effect.  I doubt the special agents are so dumb that can’t figure this out, but why they are not speaking out about how ridiculous and counterproductive these visits are is disturbing.  Common sense tells you their real intent is to gauge the subject’s political views and whether or not to deem him a threat.  As agents, they should be well aware that people are allowed to have distrust of the government, dissent, and openly question authority especially, when it is launching an exercise designed to target American citizens in the US.  Whether the intent is to intimidate or not, it is clear field offices have been spun up to believe citizens that simply want the rule of law respected are now the threat.  This has been so hyped by DHS and the DOJ, it is coming at the expense of legitimate threats like MS13 and New Black Panther Party members publicly calling for the execution of police and making good on those threats.  The Justice Department will certainly spin this to say it is just doing its “due diligence” to make sure things are peaceful and safe, but anyone with half a brain sees the biased political motivations forcing agents out to conduct house calls on people that pose zero threat to anyone following the law and respecting the US Constitution.

China and US escalate tensions:  Recent moves by China to exclude airspace to US military aircraft has led to an increase in tensions.  However, this really has nothing to do with some small dots of islands, territorial integrity, or military development.  The deeper issue arising is that China has risen to a peer competitor level status with the US threatening the post-Bretton Woods financial establishment.  Historically, when the bankers were threatened it led directly to war and I doubt this will end differently.  Specifically, China has established a counter balance to the IMF that Washington desperately tried to stop and utterly failed to prevent.  This single act has broken the IMF/World Bank monopoly and the major banking families intend to make China pay for its actions.  Further, China has also been concluding multi-billion dollar oil/gas deals with Russia, which has undermined any ability Washington thought it had to isolate and strong-arm Russia.  In short, China is now seen as a real threat, but not to America, but rather, to the elites of the Western financial monopoly.  As such, you can bet you will see a strong shift toward painting China as a bigger and bigger existential military threat that very well could lead to the outbreak of war.

ISIL Takes Ramadi: World One Step Closer to World War

Perhaps if the Iraqi soldiers used ammunition in their M240 machine gun they would have better results against ISIL.  I loved poorly staged propaganda photos.

Perhaps if the Iraqi soldiers used ammunition in their M240 machine gun they would have better results against ISIL. I loved poorly staged propaganda photos.

This week’s news that ISIL inflicted a heavy defeat upon Iraqi government forces is no surprise.  Whether or not ISIL can hold the ground is yet to be seen, but it sends a strong signal Washington’s strategy in Iraq is failing contrary to the claims of Obama’s paid propagandists.  Further, and more ominous for the world, it moves the Middle East one notch closer to an all-out regional war between Iran and Saudi Arabia.  As I have predicted for years, this coming conflagration is now a near certainty.  At this stage of the on-going proxy war there are simply no peaceful off ramps and it will be a winner takes all struggle.  Either radical Sunni extremists aligned under Saudi Arabia or radical Shia extremists aligned under Iran will prevail, which in either case will trigger a global war that involves the US and Israel.  For those of you saying, “Good, let them kill each other,” a lesson on the global economic implications of a sudden shut down of oil from the Middle East is in order.  In short, outright chaos will ensue.

Those of you that read my work regularly are well aware that I predicted the failure of US efforts to curb ISIL and the fall of Ramadi well over a year ago and the growing regional conflict in the Middle East “years” ago.  In fact, even my recent my global updates from April 20, 2015 speak specifically to Ramadi and ISIL, http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2015/04/20/global-updates/.  In the brief, I specifically called out the Obama Administration as misleading the US on our “success” against ISIL in Tikrit and said that ISIL had simply shifted its forces south to “Ramadi” where I expected it to achieve success.  Below is the exact exert from my forecast. Read more

The Baltimore Riots, the Racism Scapegoat, and the Hypocrisy of the Left

Today, May Day, is fitting timing for the below article.  Communist agitators have long used this day to protest, burn, and riot.  What I discuss below in regards to the Baltimore riots is overtly an issue of how race is being politically manipulated in the USA.  However, the deeper, more “fundamental change” that is occurring as a result of racial politics that dangerously parallel the classic Marxist strategies used to overthrow nations.

Baltimore is still at a slow boil as the other cities around the nation brace for civil disorder after the death of a man taken into police custody in Baltimore.  The official investigation is still on-going and no conclusive evidence for exactly how or why the man was killed has been released.  However, in spite of the fact we don’t know what happened, Baltimore was allowed to be sacked by rioters whipped up into a frenzy by the American Left over charges of racism.  Personally, I am sick of the distortions, hypocrisy, and outright lies being used to manipulate and tear apart our nation.  Today, I am frankly discussing the topic and political abuse of the term “racism” so drop your biases, open your eyes, and engage your brains.  As a nation, we need to reject this garbage propaganda, lock up the elite perpetrators, and “ALL” get back to living responsible lives.  We must live lives that justify being treated with dignity and respect, not just demand it.  These are hallmarks earned not given in any civilized society.  Read more

Battlefield America: The War On The American People

In order to be prepared for and to effectively resist the coming crises, you must understand your enemy and what is happening around you.  Further, you must find common cause and unite against tyranny.  The Rutherford Institute has been successfully fighting  many of these constitutional battles in the courts on all of our behalf for some time.  This hasn’t been free and John Whitehead has dedicated a considerable amount of his own time and money to this cause.  I ask you today to support John and his organization as a true modern day American hero and buy his book.  I am confident the information will be valuable and the money you spent will be supporting our cause.  Please note that neither John nor the Rutherford Institute in any way asked me to endorse their organization and there is no need.  John has proven through action that is a man living by a higher calling and demonstrated at great personal risk he is a champion of freedom and liberty and for that he has my support.

Sincerely,

Guiles Hendrik

 

Original article submitted by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

https://www.rutherford.org/publications_resources/john_whiteheads_commentary/battlefield_america_the_war_on_the_american_people

“A government which will turn its tanks upon its people, for any reason, is a government with a taste of blood and a thirst for power and must either be smartly rebuked, or blindly obeyed in deadly fear.”—John Salter

We have entered into a particularly dismal chapter in the American narrative, one that shifts us from a swashbuckling tale of adventure into a bone-chilling horror story.

As I document in my new book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, “we the people” have now come full circle, from being held captive by the British police state to being held captive by the American police state. In between, we have charted a course from revolutionaries fighting for our independence and a free people establishing a new nation to pioneers and explorers, braving the wilderness and expanding into new territories.

Where we went wrong, however, was in allowing ourselves to become enthralled with and then held hostage by a military empire in bondage to a corporate state (the very definition of fascism). No longer would America hold the moral high ground as a champion of freedom and human rights. Instead, in the pursuit of profit, our overlords succumbed to greed, took pleasure in inflicting pain, exported torture, and imported the machinery of war, transforming the American landscape into a battlefield, complete with military personnel, tactics and weaponry.

To our dismay, we now find ourselves scrambling for a foothold as our once rock-solid constitutional foundation crumbles beneath us. And no longer can we rely on the president, Congress, the courts, or the police to protect us from wrongdoing.

Indeed, they have come to embody all that is wrong with America. Read more

Global Updates

In addition to my more in-depth posts, I will be routinely adding short bulletized points to keep our readers up to date on global issues.  If you would like more details on a specific issue, please post to comments or email me directly at LMS.

April 20, 2015

  • US sending warships to “prevent” Iran from providing arms to Houthis in Yemen.  The US has greatly contributed to the crisis in Yemen and engaging in a stand-off with Iran over support to each country’s respective proxies is a losing card for the White House to play.  The US (aside from special interests) has nothing to gain from this conflict.  The only possible winner will be AQAP (Al Qaeda).  Yemen’s US backed “president” in exile will never be able to return to “effective” power after using foreign militaries to bomb and kill Yemeni civilians.  Further, the Houthis, which pose no threat to the US will be weakened, but not pushed from power.  The US will no doubt dupe itself into another disastrous conflict.  The end result will be prolonging the chaos in Yemen and AQAP gaining significantly more power.  Just as I warned, the proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia/Qatar in Syria would eventually engulf the entire region and turn hot.  If the US policy in Yemen was to create greater Middle East conflict, empower Islamic extremism, and further destabilize global oil markets, it has achieved its objectives.
  • US arrests suspects attempting to join ISIL.  The US acts as though this was a great crime fighting/anti-terrorism win; however, it is a sign of deeper problems that have been self-inflicted.  Minnesota in particular is a hot bed of Islamic activity because of the suicidal domestic immigration policies that favor and actually import tens of thousands of people into the US annually from countries known for radical Islamism such as Somalia.  In short, it is a self fulfilling prophecy that has been used to justify an unnecessary domestic spy/police state and draconian legislation such as the “Patriot Act.”
  • Iraqi military backed by US and Iran fails to retake key cities from ISIL.  Contrary to rosy claims by the Obama Administration, the Iraqi Army has only scored marginal victories against what appears to be a far more dynamic and better led ISIL force.  Specifically, government forces were able to seize some key areas around Tikrit, but have so far failed to effectively secure the city.  Further, while the Iraqi military was focused north in Tikrit, ISIL has appeared to have shifted its fighting strength to the Ramadi area where it has gained ground in recent weeks.  As predicted, the violence and bloodshed in Iraq will continue and grow as long as the proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia continues to burn.  As one side gains ground, the other side will bolster its support for its proxy until the conflict has grown so big and so violent it will directly involve its original sponsors.  The end result will be a disaster for both the Middle East and the US.
  • Drought in California continues at record levels.  If you haven’t planted a large garden this year, plan to pay more…a lot more, at the grocery store.  As warned in previous articles last winter, food prices have continued to rise.  This price inflation isno where near at its peak with beef prices skyrocketing.  The conditions that continue to cause price hikes will persist.  Crops largely grown in California will see some of the largest spikes such as nuts and lettuces.
    • http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/02/19/californias-water-shortage-will-lead-to-a-spike-in-food-prices-and-economic-peril/
    • http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/02/24/the-impending-food-price-crisis-time-to-plant-your-survival-garden/
    • http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/02/24/feds-withhold-water-to-california-farmers-for-first-time-in-54-years/
  • High taxes and over regulation finally ruining Virginia.  Northern Virginia, an area historically known for its strong economy and growing population has begun to feel the pressure of increasingly socialist governmental policies.  Naturally, the region draws on people working for the federal government and the big bureaucracy mindset has metastasized across the Potomac into the Commonwealth of Virginia.  High taxes, oppressive regulations, and stifling over population have all been the result.  This caustic bureaucratic recipe has led to a fed up population that is now leaving in droves.  Ironically, many of these people leaving were responsible at the ballot boxes for the socialist turn in governance.  Perhaps they learned their lesson and will not repeat their same mistake in the future, but that is doubtful.  As the population growth levels out and then begins to drop, local governments will soon realize budget deficits are growing and they are unable to provide the services originally programmed.  Without undoing what has become a socialist style of governance in the enclave, Northern Virginiais doomed to double down on its current failures and create another communist utopia on the banks of the Potomac.
    • http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/washington-area-population-increase-slowing-down-census-figures-indicate/2015/04/19/34683ab0-d7b5-11e4-8103-fa84725dbf9d_story.html

By Guiles Hendrik

 

 

 

Peace with Iran will lead to war: Part 2

Hardened Iranian Nuclear Facility at Fordo(w)

Hardened Iranian Nuclear Facility at Fordo(w)

Last week I discussed why peace with Iran was the preferred option.  I outlined a number of salient points uninformed talking heads in the media and well paid Israel lobbyists such as the former US Ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton, will never bring up.  In short, the costs of a war with Iran will far outweigh the costs of accepting a turbulent peace.  Even a successful war against Iran will be a Pyric victory and cause an economic collapse in the US.  Further, even if Iran did test a nuclear weapon, we would still have plenty of time to exercise the war option should it be necessary.  Unfortunately, even if the US does manage to broker a peace deal with Iran, war is now close to a certainty.  In the event of a war with Iran, there will be dire implications for the US.  Today I will discuss why war is now imminent, how it will likely be initiated, and the catastrophic effects on the US you must prepare to endure. Read more

Peace with Iran will lead to war, but not why you think: Part 1

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, right, speaks with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Geneva, Switzerland, in January. Kerry will meet again with Zarif this weekend in the Swiss capital as March deadline approaches. (Keystone/ Martial Trezzini/file/Associated Press)

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, right, speaks with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Geneva, Switzerland, in January. Kerry will meet again with Zarif this weekend in the Swiss capital as March deadline approaches. (Keystone/ Martial Trezzini/file/Associated Press)

Over the last decade, I have produced many papers and articles analyzing events in the Middle East and their geopolitical impact for academia, commercial publications, think tanks, and government agencies.  I stand by my track record as one of the most prescient in the business.  To that end, predicting chaos in the Middle East has been easy, but combining the what (violence) with the who, when, why, and how are the far more demanding predictions.  One the worst case scenarios for a broad outbreak of violence in the Middle East has been the possibility of a major war between Israel and Iran.  This conflict would immediately go regional with the on-going proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia pulling in the remaining Middle Eastern countries.  Once it goes regional, it will be nearly impossible for the U.S., Europe, and Russia to remain on the sidelines.  I have described in detail how this would likely play out as well as how it could be prevented in previous posts (see a partial list below).  I am writing today again with a dire warning for anyone willing to listen.  The most recent events occurring across the Middle East are now signaling the worst case scenario of a major conflict with Iran will come to pass as I have previously predicted.  This first article discusses why war with Iran is unnecessary and must be avoided.  Part II will discuss why even with an Iranian deal, war is inevitable and the dire consequences we can expect.  Read more

Commissar Hall of Shame

 

Lenin says "Onward Fellow Communists!"

Lenin says “Onward Fellow Communists!”

Commissar (kŏmˈĭ-särˌ) n. An official of the Communist Party in charge of political indoctrination and the enforcement of party loyalty. n. The head of a commissariat in the Soviet Union until 1946.

n. A person who tries to control public opinion.
These individuals have won themselves a place on our Hall of Shame for extraordinary egregious acts of lawlessness, hubris, arrogance, corruption, abuse of public office, and contempt for the freedoms and liberties of Americans as secured by the Constitution of the United States.  The dishonor of being designated a Commissar wins you a ranking on our grassroots list of individuals that should be blacklisted and thrown out of public office and or boycotted if they are members of the business community.
Individuals are listed in no particular order of ill repute.
  • Alexandria, Virginia  Mayor and radical anti-gun extremist, William D. Euille
  • New York City Mayor and radical leftist, Bill de Blasio
  • Chicago Mayor and long time communist, Rahm Emanuel
  • US Senator, hypocrite, and radical leftist, Dianne Feinstein
  • US Representative, insider trader, and radical leftist, Nancy Pelosi
  • US Representative, alcoholic, and false conservative, John Boehner
  • Former US Attorney General and communist party supporter, Eric Holder
  • Arguably the worst US President in history, communist organizer, bastard child, anti-American, pro-Islamist, and title holder for bankrupting the US, Barack Hussein Obama
  • Queen of corruption and worst Secretary of State in US history, Hillary R. Clinton
  • US Ambassador to the United Nations and lead architect of the disastrous policy in Libya, Samantha Power
  • Political Hack and unrepentant radical leftist, Rachel Maddow
  • US National Security Advisor and senior architect of disastrous policy in Libya, Susan Rice
  • Harvard Professor and race baiter, Henry Louis Gates
  • 4th Director of National Intelligence and enemy of the 4th Amendment, James R. Clapper
  • US Secretary of Agriculture and Monsanto front man, Thomas James “Tom” Vilsack
  • Former IRS Employee and leftist hitwoman, Lois G. Lerner
  • Former Acting Commissioner of the Internal Revenue Service and leftist hitman, Steven T. Miller
  • Former US President, champion of big government, moron, and war criminal, George W. Bush
  • Former US Vice President, diabolical businessman, war criminal, and destroyer of the Bill of Rights, Richard Bruce “Dick” Cheney
  • Former Senior Advisor and Deputy Chief of Staff for President George Bush, convict, and political conman, Karl Christrian Rove
  •  Former US Ambassador to the UN, vocal draft dodger (National Guard), supporter of mass surveillance, champion of the illegal war in Iraq, and paid lobbyist for Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs John Robert Bolton
  • Former head of JSOC, Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, oath breaker, and moral coward for exposing that the US created ISIS only after his retirement after helping to create ISIS while on active duty, Lt. General Michael T. Flynn.

Why are Virginia police going door to door to “inform” businesses about open carry of firearms?

First, let me open by saying I hope all of my readers have enjoyed a nice holiday.  I am happy to be back after a working vacation in the mountains and have a ton to discuss since my last articles.  Much has transpired domestically as well as globally and I will be discussing these critical events in the coming weeks so please sign up for email alerts and check back regularly to Last Minute Survival.  You won’t want to miss the latest intelligence, reviews, and alerts we have lined up.  Finally, thank you again for your support.  The network we have built at LMS would not be possible without our highly active subscribers.

Over the last month, Alexandria County Police have been going door to door visiting businesses to “inform” them about Virginia gun laws and handing out fliers [see flier here: https://vcdl.org/sites/default/files/Alexandria_Flyer.jpg].  The question is why?  Did the highly affluent Virginia suburb of Washington, DC suddenly become confused and demand police spend limited time and resources to clarify state laws or did people suddenly start flagrantly violating the law en masse?  The truth is the police were targeting the area not because of illegal activity, but because of constitutionally protected legal activity.  Yes, you heard that right.  Alexandria felt that citizens legally going about their business were such an affront to the “good order” of Alexandria that they needed to go door to door to warn businesses about these people that dared to openly carry a firearm.  Read more

Bug Out Part 2 – Los Angeles/Southern California

Bugging out of SoCal via the Mojave Desert

Bugging out of SoCal via the Mojave Desert

Continuing with our series of area specific bug out planning, we focus on Southern California (SoCal) where a host of unique challenges will face anyone attempting to bug out.  First of all, Los Angeles (LA) and the surrounding region of SoCal contains over 22 million people densely packed at a density of over 5,000 people per square mile in many areas.  This makes it one of the most populous regions of the United States.   If you have to bug out of LA and its surrounding areas, you better be one step ahead of everyone else.  Second, the most densely populated areas of SoCal are locked between the Pacific Ocean to the west and the towering Sierra Nevada mountains to the east creating a serious geographical bottleneck.  To the north are more mountains, the Great Valley, and more densely populated areas.  To the south is Mexico.  If you choose to go east and got across the mountains, then you are faced with surviving in one of the hottest and driest locations in the US, Death Valley and the surrounding desert.  If you go west, you need a boat fully sea worthy and supplied with everything you will need for a long duration voyage.  Going north or south just runs you into more people fleeing disaster and won’t help your situation.  Third, SoCal plays host to regular earthquakes and at any given time the “Big One” could hit.  Further, being coastal, much of the SoCal coastline is vulnerable to the effects of a major tsunami.  Finally, but by no means all inclusive, SoCal also has some very precarious infrastructure such as the leaking San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station that may be permanently shut down and Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant, which straddles two active faults.  Without doubt, the challenges of ‘getting out of town’ are mile high in this part of California, but with simple planning, you and your loved can safely and effectively bug and stay alive.

Optimally, you are using all of your resources to remain situational aware and bug out before the mob.  However, events like major earthquakes, tsunamis, and grid collapses happen with little or no warning.  As a typical SoCal citizen you drive 20+ miles per workday and use multiple high volume interstates and or state highways.  As such, there is a high likelihood of being put into a position where your bug out begins during a commute.  Do to this likely event; we begin our bug out discussion in rush hour traffic and discuss one of the more likely bug out scenarios, a major quake.

Your day begins as most in SoCal.  It is sunny and warm and you are looking forward to getting home from work.  You begin your commute as any other day and are quickly weaving through traffic when disaster strikes.  A major earthquake strikes SoCal damaging nuclear reactors, severing communications, destroying infrastructure, and sparking massive fires as gas pipe lines are ruptured.  You pull over and get out of your car until the major shaking has ceased.  At this point, you know there has been a major quake, but you don’t know the extent.  You get back into your car and try to continue to your home as the radio begins to broadcast a steady stream of damage reports.  As you continue, traffic grinds to a halt on the major highways, which have sustained massive damage.  You attempt to call your wife on your cell phone, but the few operable towers are overwhelmed and you have no service.  Nonetheless, you immediately type out a text message with critical information and hit send hoping to slip the message out across some free bandwidth.

Now, having previously memorized alternative routes through various neighborhoods, you opt for the side streets as your only available option.  These roads maze you through inner city neighborhoods, downtown areas, and residential zones.  These locations can pose a threat just as dangerous as getting stuck on the 101.  Specifically, you may come across many individuals on foot.  The random man or woman crossing a street ahead of you may not be an issue, but that mob of 15+ men at an ad hoc roadblock with bats can certainly be a serious threat if you are forced from your vehicle.  Keep the LA riots of the past in mind.

As you slowly make your way toward your home, it is clear the damage is getting more serious.  Buildings have been turned to rubble, the road is impassible, fires are burning out of control, and people are in the streets.  As you try to progress, your drivable routes are closed off.  Now with no chance to back out of the gridlock and no way to go forward, you notice tempers flaring and panic setting into the public.  Someone passes your vehicle and starts demanding a ride, you hear glass break to your rear, then suddenly you hear unnerving pops some distance ahead of you.  You have no choice but to abandon your vehicle and continue on foot.  Thankfully, even though your car’s GPS is no longer useful and can’t go with you, it isn’t a problem because you kept a good map in your vehicle bug out kit.

Grabbing your vehicle bug out kit, you make your way to your rendezvous point with your family, resupply, and assess your situation.  The area is utterly destroyed, looting is already rampant, fires are raging unchecked, thousands are dead or injured, there is word one of the nuclear reactors may be leaking radiation, phones are not working, and all utilities are down.  Seeing no good options for bugging in, you make the decision to bug out.  Now let’s look at the challenges you will face and the preps you will need to make in order to be a Last Minute Survivor.

To begin, any plan to bug out of SoCal has to take into account your ever present enemy… CARRMAGEDON!  Imagine the vehicle madness of the I-405 and US-101 intersection at a standstill.  Then apply the same sea of gridlocked cars and trucks to all the major roadways between Santa Monica and Redlands.  The end result is a highway system that is overloaded and frozen.  In the panic following the event that initiated your bug out, there will be countless auto accidents, gridlock, and cars abandoned after running out of gas while idling in stalled traffic.  These events will combine to turn SoCal into one giant multilane roadblock.  If your plan includes the need to drive anywhere, be it home from work or to the marina, you must plan to be stuck in this sea of angry, afraid, and possibly violent drivers.  So what’s the solution?  It’s actually basic.  You need to know of another way home and drive it enough to commit the route and neighborhoods to memory because you may need to hike it by foot.  Keep in mind that your daytime commute will look drastically different if you travel it at night or vice versa.  Further, make sure you have a good map of the area in the event GPS is not working.  You may also opt for adding a mountain bike to your vehicle bug out bag, which would allow you to continue quickly along jammed highways.  It is nice to have a small, fuel efficient car to zip around the city, but the ability of your vehicle to get over typical obstacles will be critical during a disaster.  In the event of an earthquake, obstacles can range from fallen telephone poles and debris like bricks to buckled streets to curbs, medians, and other vehicles.  Would your car be able to drive down the side slope of an intestate or highway or jump the median to do a U-turn?  You might have to.  A basic Jeep Wrangler can do this and get over the said obstacles, but your sedan with its low clearance and two wheel drive will get stuck.  Getting stuck brings us to the next problem…If you have to abandon your vehicle, pull it well off the road and try to park it in a secure location that is less visible from the main road.  Make sure nothing is visible that would draw the attention of a thief.  Further, disable your car by disconnecting your battery cables at minimum.  Critical to your vehicle bug out kit will be appropriate seasonal attire to include good shoes, water, a water purifier, and something to carry a minimum of two quarts of water per person in your car.  For SoCal, in addition to our standard items we recommend in your bug out kit (See: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/10/13/location-specific-bug-out-bags-part-i/), you should also include the following items:

  • Potassium Iodide tablets (http://www.bt.cdc.gov/radiation/ki.asp)
  • Additional means of carrying water on the go such as a backpack with an integral hydration bladder
  • Fire extinguisher (capable of extinguishing chemical fires)
  • Climbing rope, harness/seat, carabiners, leather gloves, Figure 8 or other descender device
  • Low profile body armor capable of stopping handgun rounds
  • Fishing tackle
  • Addition of anti-nausea medication to your first aid kit if you plan to escape via the Pacific Ocean

As you progress with your bug out, you will likely have to ditch your car and make your way by foot or other means, you may well be confronted by and angry mob.  So, what to do about a violent mob ahead of you?  Go the opposite way quickly and avoid them if at all possible.  It is better to add time and distance to your route than to be beaten and robbed by a mob or gang.  I caution against a gun fight unless it is a last resort.  Mobs carry guns, maybe even many guns, so even with your superior shooting skills, you could be outgunned in a close gunfight.  If you have to shoot it out, get as much distance as you can from your threat to maximize your marksmanship, get behind cover that will stop a bullet, and return well aimed fire at the most pressing threats first.  Further, if you face multiple threats, try to maneuver them so they are “stacked” in a line, which allows you to take them on one at a time versus all at once.  If you can’t carry or are unwilling to arm yourself then your best bet is a heavy duty can of pepper spray for bears, a good pair of running shoes, and a walking stick that doubles as a club.

If you can effectively avoid the mob, your next big challenge will not be what is missing from your bug out bag, but your physical condition.  The military wouldn’t waste time to conduct daily physical training if it wasn’t essential, yet all too many preppers forego this most basic and essential of preps.  Are you in decent enough shape to walk home with a moderate load on your back?  Most Americans are not.  That 20 mile/40 minute commute that you have to walk might as well be Mount Everest if you get tired after one block of walking.  Stack the odds in your favor.  Go for more walks, try short hikes with friends or family, and consider a lighter “Get Home Bag” for this situation.  One thing I’ve taken from my hiking experience is an admiration for ‘ultra-light’ hikers.  They buy lighter gear, carry less gear, and therefore have the option of covering more terrain with greater ease.  You don’t have to be an ultra-marathon champion, but you should be able to cover at least 20 miles on foot with your gear and not die of a heart attack.  Mentally and physically preparing yourself for this will put you one step ahead, no pun intended.

What is likely to go wrong after setting off on your long walk home?  Although we have discussed this issue previously, it is worth repeating because it is so important.  Don’t be in a position where you look down at your penny loafers or two inch heels and saying ‘oh crap.’  The solution is again simple.  At minimum, put some running shoes or lightweight hiking boots in your car and leave them there.  Beware of buying expensive combat boots or stiff hiking boots for this purpose.  If you haven’t broken them in before that long walk it will cause painful blisters that could get infected and slow or stop your movement.  Further, you will need boots that can handle steep mountains, keep out sand, protect your feet from thorns, and still let your feet breath.  There are a variety of shoes and boots that can meet these requirements so find a pair that works for you and make sure you are wearing them or have them with you.

If things really go sour you will have less than a day to get home before we all start turning into metaphorical zombies and chasing you down the street.  You don’t want to be the person caught on the street that starts attracting unwanted attention.  Get to where you are going before people start to realize you have gear they need.  The scenarios are endless and point to one main point.  Get up, get moving, and don’t stop.  Here’s why, American grocery stores operate on a system long ago borrowed from Japan called “Just in time.”  This eliminates a grocer’s need to store large amounts of perishables that will expire and cause a financial loss if not sold.  As such, stores don’t stock more than three days’ worth of food at any time.  The semi-trucks we see are critical to that logistics supply chain.  In the event of a crisis, we have witnessed over and over that once the trucks stop rolling, the three days of supplies disappear within about one to two hours.  If the crisis persists and is wide spread, unprepared people we will grow hungry.  That’s when mom says to dad, “little Joe is hungry and so am I.”  Mom and pop will hold back from theft and other crimes for a while, but will eventually do what they must to stay alive.  Situations like this happened when Katrina hit New Orleans, and it can happen anywhere.  Your job is to get out before this happens.

As discussed, getting out of the SoCal area won’t be a walk in the park but can be done.  From the beginning though, you need to have identified and prepped for where you will go.  If you don’t have a destination then you are wandering and likely to become another statistic.  Having a PRE-planned destination is vital, see the bug out of DC article for more details (http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/10/17/bug-out-bags-part-ii-washington-dc/).  The most difficult area to bug out of is the concrete and asphalt triangle covering all of the area within Santa Monica to Pasadena to Anaheim.  Options out to the North are US-101 aka the “101” and I-5.  Everyone and their brother will likely be on those roads so expect pain and misery.  These two roads are literally the main entrances to the LA area and will be no easy task to navigate.  Another option out towards the North is Highway-1 along the Malibu coast where your ocean views will be great, but the narrow road could easily become jammed, cutoff, or destroyed by rock/mudslides in the event of a quake.  It would also be vulnerable to a tsunami and radiation from a damaged coastal reactor.  Remember that bugging out doesn’t require a paved road.  If you can make it to Burbank you can drive along the rail road at Burbank Town Center and follow it to Chatsworth, but don’t be stupid and get smacked by a train.  From there you have easier access to Highway 118 and can easily reach Simi Valley, Moorpark, Santa Paula, and Ventura via back roads (if you have a map).  Note, the railroad that gets you to Burbank also connects to Union Station in LA.

Getting out of town to the Northeast is similarly challenging.  They are Highway-14 towards Palmdale, I-15 towards Barstow, and the “2” through Angeles National Forest if you are alright with ultra-winding roads and contending with Bigfoot and his keepers.  Keep in mind that the ‘High Desert’ between the “14” and I-15 is not a friendly environment.  It’s a desert…therefore, it is hot, it is dry, it gets cold at night, the plants stick you and the animals bite you.  It is unforgiving and if you are not prepared for it, it is best to be avoided if you are on foot or could end up on foot.  It’s also home to a relatively conservative population, an armed population.  Criminals beware.  Those of us amongst the liberal crowd would likely be better suited taking the 101 towards lovely Santa Barbara and San Francisco.

Other options to the Northeast and East can be considered but have many cons.  The “18” towards Big Bear takes you into gorgeous countryside, but rumors indicate local residents plan on blockading inbound roads to keep the rest of us out.  I don’t blame them.  The same can be assumed of isolated communities throughout the region.  The “38”east of Redlands is a good option into the San Bernardino National Forest if you need to go that way.  I’ve personally hiked this area and know it contains various creeks to keep your water topped off.  Interstate-10 is the main way out eastbound.  Its extra lanes East of Banning would facilitate your exit, but take you into miserable terrain as does the I-15 into the Mojave Desert.  Again, if you aren’t familiar with the desert, stay far away from the Mojave.  If you must go into the desert, have plenty of water and make sure you have marked all the natural springs on your map and checked them out ahead of time.  Some of them are hot springs, some are seasonal, and some have water not safe to drink due to mining contaminants like mercury.  Further, if you are on foot, travel between the hours just before sunset to just after sun rise when temperatures are the coolest.  During the day you should seek shade and shelter from the sun.  Rock outcroppings are good for this, but also play host to a lot of venomous snakes so be cautious.  Keep as cool as you can and never waste water or energy during the heat of the day.  Getting above or below the ground will be where it stays the coolest.  Wear loose fitting, light colored clothes, a wide brim hat, and sunglasses.  Sunscreen is good for your face, neck, and ears, but covering up with clothing is far better.  Remember, distances in the desert are very deceiving.  What looks like only a short walk could be 20 or more miles.

If you plan to head east and tackle the mountains, you will also need to know what you are doing to survive.  Any attempt to cross the Sierra’s will dictate a bug out plan by foot that has been well rehearsed.  Just like the desert, the mountains are brutal and unforgiving.  You must be prepared for extremely cold, wet, and windy weather if you plan on successfully crossing or holding out in the Sierras.  Blizzard conditions even in the summer at altitude are not uncommon.  Further, you have avalanches, rock slides, raging streams, cliffs, high altitude, lightening, ice fields and crevasses, cougars, and well-armed locals to contend with.  If you are not in peak physical condition, properly trained, or in possession of the right equipment for the alpine environment, the mountains will prove insurmountable; especially, at high altitude.  During the winter, crossing the mountains simply may not be an option due to the deep snow and brutal storms, even for experienced mountaineers.  Winter storms above the treeline can drop temperatures below zero, pack hurricane force winds, and diminish visibility to zero.  However, in the summer, the extremely rugged terrain gives the experienced climber and mountaineer the advantage of being able to go where the masses can’t or won’t.  If you do select the mountains as your bug out location, you will have ample water, will not have to contend with as many people, and can find many hide spots suitable to overnight and longer term bugging out.  Nonetheless, your kit will be heavier and must have the right equipment to include crampons, ice axe, climbing rope and gear, extreme cold weather gear, mountain rated sleeping bag and pad, mountaineering/4-season tent, tough hiking boots, backpacking stove (for areas of no vegetation above the treeline), maps and compass, and possibly snowshoes.  If you read the specialized gear list and said, “What’s that?” and or haven’t been trained to use that gear, going into the alpine region could be lethal for you and should be avoided.  In the interim, use your time to get familiar with the gear, take some classes, and become comfortable operating in the alpine region because you may just get forced into it.

I don’t recommend a southbound bug out because of the likely mass migration from Mexico during a grid-down all out national catastrophe.  The current and common place violence just across the border is likely to spill over when the “troubles” begin.  I wouldn’t expect our border guards to work for free and forsake their families at home; therefore, the border may end up “open” and precipitate a population surge along the border.  Further, an area with a large population density isn’t in concert with my bug out philosophy.  The saving grace for those of us in the San Diego and Oceanside is just East.  The area between Palomar Mountain State Park and the Cleveland National Forest would make a great initial bug out retreat, which is in close proximity.  Its various lakes, available game, and lower population density make it very bug out attractive.  However, like the Poconos for New Yorkers, many people will also plan to head to this area so it is less attractive as a long term bug out site unless you have land and a developed, defendable retreat in that area.

Finally, there is the westerly option known as a boat.  Certainly, this option isn’t available to many of us, but if your connections or finances allow for it, an escape by sea is one of your better options for SoCal.  The Pacific Ocean can certainly become a refuge if you have a stocked boat that is accessible, sea worthy, and you are a capable captain.  Even if you do not have a large ocean worthy boat, using a smaller boat and hugging the coastline will allow you to travel a significant distance from the immediate danger, insulate yourself from the chaos on land, and even bug out to another country if necessary.  If the seas get to rough, you can bring your ship into a sheltered inlet or even dock it and continue by land from a preplanned rendezvous location.  Make sure that you add anti-nausea medication to your kit if you plan to head out to sea.  Even if you have never been motion sick before, presented with the right conditions, you could become incapacitated with nausea and vomiting during rough seas.  The sea also provides you with ample food in the form of fish if you are prepared to catch them.  Make sure you have fishing tackle to include nets if you head to sea and practice with it.  A decent fisherman will be able to provide long term sustenance in a bug out by boat scenario.  Also, with the right equipment, you can desalinate water to provide long term critical hydration.  If your boat is capable of running under sail, you also have an indefinite range.

All considered SoCal doesn’t have a host of good options for bugging out.  Your best bet is to be prepared and ready to act.  This puts you ahead of the zombie masses and makes your chances of a successful bug out far higher.  However, even if you are the first out of the immediate metropolitan areas, you still will be faced with some very technical survival environments that include rugged mountains, scorching hot deserts, or the vast ocean.  As such, it is critical to plan, prepare, and rehearse your bug out ahead of time.  For example, if you plan to head to the hills, spend your weekends hiking the trails, familiarizing yourself to the terrain, acquiring any necessary specialized gear, and learning the skills necessary to thrive in that environment.  Success in SoCal demands you put in the time so start now and be a Last Minute Survivor.

 

By Guiles Hendrik and Sgt G.
December 1, 2014

Bug Out Bags Part II: Washington, DC

Map of Washington DCFor Part II in our series on bug out kits, I will look at some specifics for planning your kit if you happen to live in or around the nation’s capital.  I chose to address DC first, because it is a city where the conditions that trigger bugging out are likely to occur and it offers some very specific challenges that are applicable to many urban centers across the US.  Hopefully, you have had a chance to read my intro post on building your bug out kit.  If not, first review thin information we posted at: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/10/13/location-specific-bug-out-bags-part-i/.

Why would you worry about having to bug out if you live in DC? Read more

Location Specific Bug Out Bags: Part I

Getting out of town

Getting out of town

I would estimate that at least once a week I get an email from someone asking me about what is the best bug-out bag.  I have apparently, quite noticeably, avoided posting on this topic because there is a ton of commentary already out there on the subject and it honestly just “depends.”  However, after looking through “images” of various bug out bags on the internet, I realized just how poorly prepared and informed most people are.  From junk gear to ridiculous “essentials,” I reviewed over 100 images and did not see a single kit I would grade as sufficient (of course a smart person won’t post their kit online).  As such, the critical need for good information appears as relevant now as it ever was.  So, in an attempt to inform our readers and answer your questions I want to make this discussion relevant.  To do so, I must get specific to the unique details of each situation.  Therefore, I will speak to kits best suited for urban hubs as well as specialized travel situations like at an airport or taking a cruise, both domestically and abroad, where someone could find themselves trapped during a crisis and needing to escape to survive.  Due to the specificity of this series of posts, I believe our readers will find this information to be some of the most valuable and relevant tips and advice out there on the net.  Further, the kits and my methodology have been proven over and over across the globe not just in combat, but in real life crises and disasters of every sort.  As an intro post on this subject, I will cover the general issues, I see most often, to lay a foundation for follow-on posts detailing location and situation specific kits.

“What is the best bug out bag?” is the first question I normally get.  The answer is simple; it is the one you have with you at the time when you need it.  In both combat and peacetime operations overseas, I repeatedly witnessed the lesson that if it isn’t on you when you need it, you might as well have trashed it before you left.  For this reason, I don’t like to refer to a bug out “bag” because it implies this may be something you don’t have immediately on you and left behind.  Instead, I prefer the term bug out kit.  However, as we will discuss, I do believe in having various preparedness kits that include bags stowed where they are immediately available.

“What should I pack in my kit?” is the second question I normally get.  For starters, always use the highest quality items you can acquire.  All too often I review a kit of a client and find that they have used cheap, throwaway type items.  Ask yourself, how much money is my life worth.  This is the gear you will rely on for survival under the worst case conditions.  Can you afford not to have the best possible gear?  The second part of the answer is put nothing in it you haven’t first thoroughly tested and become proficient with.  In this regard I often find brand new water purifiers, radios, and firearms that have never been used.  When I ask the owner about how to operate the system, I usually get a blank stare and a scramble for the directions.  This is an automatic failure.  Know your gear, use it, and master it.  I don’t care how sexy your gear is, if you don’t know how to properly operate it, it is a liability.

Perhaps ironically, the third question I usually get is something in regards to the viability of their bug out plan.  This tells me immediately that their planning priorities are out of sync and most likely will be flawed.  A deep analysis should be done of your bug out options long before a crisis ensues.  This allows time for proper rehearsals, testing, and modification of said plan under controlled conditions.  Note, in later posts, I will discuss in extremis escape bug out planning.  Further, before you can properly prepare your bug out kit, it is essential to know what you are preparing to do.  For example, if you have to go through subterranean tunnels, headlamps, batteries, and respirators are a must.  However, if your plan takes you through waterways, you better have a way to waterproof your gear and cross bodies of moving water.  Finally, your kit must be fully integrated to support your bug out plan.  For example, if you staged your kit on the top floor of a downtown high rise building where your office is located, but you spend the majority of your day on the road making sales visits, it is probably not going to help you in an emergency.  Nonetheless, in spite of the seemingly endless variables, there are still basic essentials that a prepared person should never leave home without.

This list of items is not prioritized since I consider all items as must have.  A prepared person will not only tailor their wardrobe for functionality, but also in a way that allows them to have all of their essential kit with them at all times.  Optimally, “one is none and two is one.”  I can’t expect you to incur the added weight in many situations for redundant systems, but you should opt for overlap in your gear and planning as much as possible.  To make these posts as useful as possible, I will often reference specific products and gear.  I have personally used all of the items I recommend and know that when employed properly, the gear will work as advertised.  You may read these specific references as product advertising, but I assure you, I have not received any financial gain and am only speaking from my own experience.  These products stand on their own quality and I am simply validating the products work well for the purposes I describe based on my real life use and employment of them.  Further, there are many other products that are equally suitable or perhaps, better for your specific needs.  You need to test and choose what specific items fit “your” needs best.  With this understanding, always have:

  • A means of communication (cell phone/CB/SatPhone/etc.): If you use a cell, make sure you have important numbers memorized or written down because in the event your phone is lost or destroyed, you may still be able to find and use another.  I find that with phones, I can slip a laminated list of emergency numbers inside the battery compartment or protective case.  Make sure you harden your phone so that it is stored in a ruggedized, shock and weatherproof case.  OtterBox and Pelican make a rugged line of cases that have performed well under tough environments.  With all electronic items, you should have a backup power source or spare batteries.  I have used both GOALZERO and Solio commercial products for this purpose successfully.  Both are well engineered as lightweight, packable, ruggedized chargers that are suitable for bugging out.
  • Water:  You cannot last more than a few days without water in the best of conditions.  Your plan must provide for redundant sources of potable water.  Optimally, you will need one gallon of water per day.  However, water is one of the heaviest things you carry so for anyone bugging out on foot, it is reasonable to plan to carry as little as two quarts at a time between water resupply points, but your resupply plan must be sound.  Many people have transitioned to hydration packs such as those made by Camelbak, which are excellent for hydration on the move.  However, I still carry a couple insulated water bottles/canteens.  The wide mouth containers are excellent if you plan on traveling in temperatures that will drop below freezing where the water in the hydration bladder tubes will freeze solid.  Wide mouth bottles are also much easier to clean and thanks to insulation, keep cold things cold and hot things hot.  Finally, depending on the type of purifier you use, a bottle is far easier to use.
  • Purifier:  If you don’t carry all the water you need with you, you must have the means to purify it as you go.  Failure to properly purify water even once could lead to becoming very ill or contracting crippling…even deadly diseases.  In fact, clean water in most of the world is virtually unknown.  Fortunately, today, there are a wide variety of purification technologies to choose from.  However, it is important to get the right information.  In particular, most water “filters” are great for purifying relatively clean water or water only likely to contain bacterial (or larger) contaminates, but do not kill or remove viruses.  Chemical treatments have similar virus “or” bacteria drawbacks and are prone to only being effective in a narrow water temperature band.  As such, I tailor purification equipment to the available water sources in a client’s bug out plan.  Dangerously, some of the worst diseases like Hepatitis and Polio thrive in water polluted with human waste, which is quite common during a disaster or grid down situation and would not be neutralized by typical bacterial purifiers using just a filter such as water purifying straws.  Thus, for most applications, I recommended a redundant system of a pot or cup to boil water when stationary and a SteriPen to use on the move to effectively kill the full spectrum of microorganisms (viruses, bacteria, protozoans).  The application of a few drops of stabilized oxygen can also serve the same purpose.  None of these methods add harmful chemicals or a foul taste to the water.  Further, few other methods effectively deal with all microorganisms across a broad water temperature range.  In special situations where high levels of industrial contaminants are found throughout the region’s water supplies, I will also recommend a water filter that incorporates a carbon filtration cartridge to pre-filter the water and reduce (not eliminate) chemical contaminates.
  • Metal pot or cup and a spoon: Whether you are brewing a cup of coffee or boiling water to reconstitute your meal, you need some type of metal pot or cup and a metal spoon.  Further, when all other means of water purification fail, boiling water is still your best method to kill the things in your water that will make you sick.  When selecting a pot or cup, try to find one that will “nest” with other gear to save space.  Often people will take a very lightweight backpacker’s stove and fuel cartridge and store it inside their pot or store their food in their pot.  Remember, you will need to handle your cup or pot over a fire when its boiling hot so have some type of tool to grab the pot, a handle, or leather glove.  Having a fitted lid will allow you to boil your water faster, keep out debris and bugs, and prevent spills.  Finally, make sure you have a couple of sealable plastic bags with a scrub pad to clean your pot.  As for the spoon, it is a do it all tool for cooking.  Just make sure it is metal so it won’t melt or break.  If you want to shave a couple ounces of weight you can purchase a titanium spoon and pot.  Otherwise, I prefer to use stainless steel over aluminum even though it is heavier.
  • Food:  Depending on your bug out plan, you should plan for a minimum of three days of food without resupply.  A good kit will have both quick trail foods you can keep in your pockets such as energy bars and more substantial meals such as a dinner entrees in your pack.  I have used bars for as long as I can remember to “take the edge off.”  Bars, peanut butter, and trail mix are high energy, easy to carry, and reasonably non-perishable foods that will be your first option if you must stay on the move.  However, as soon as you get a chance to stop, you will need to eat a high calorie meal.  Freeze dried backpacking meals are some of the lightest, most nutritious, and easiest to prepare (just add boiling water), but are also the most expensive.  Meals-Ready-to-Eat (MREs) require no preparation, but are heavier because they already have water added.  Both are palatable, but I would not class these meals as “good.”  Both options also have long shelf lives, which combine to make them your optimum choices for pre-packed emergency food.  However, which type of meal is best really depends on whether your plan allows for building a fire and boiling water or laying low and eating a cold meal from a bag.
  • An emergency signaling device (whistle, mirror, high visibility panel, flare, etc.):  Most people find a way to totally integrate this into their wardrobe.  For example, attach a whistle to all of your jacket zippers and have an article of clothing that is brightly colored.
  • Ziploc bags:  Carry a few heavy duty freezer bags of various sizes to organize and waterproof your gear.  Later, these can be used for many things such as carry water or gathering food.
  • A weatherproofed fire starter (lighter, matches, fire steel) with some type of weatherproofed tinder (cotton balls dipped in Vaseline are excellent):  This is not a time to prove your woodcraft skills.  If you need a fire, you don’t want to mess around.  Put one lighter in your pocket.  Then have a secondary in a small waterproof case that includes tinder independently sealed.  I have found small Pelican cases for water sports excellent in the regard.  They are tough, float, and remain watertight.  Fire starters are one time where redundancy is a must.
  • A navigation aid (preferably a liquid filled compass):  I have successfully used many different compasses.  Suunto, Brunton, and Silva all make great compasses that can be acquired at a reasonable price.  A lensatic model will be far more accurate for someone skilled in orienteering.   However, don’t waste your money on super small (swallow size) survival compasses unless you plan on hiding it as a POW.  They rarely work well and if it comes down to actually needing to navigate with it beyond finding cardinal directions, you will not be served well.  A GPS and or electronic compass are also very nice, but remember they are never as robust; especially, in an EMP type event.  Nonetheless, I still use a Casio Pathfinder watch with an electronic compass as a tool for acquiring a rapid and reasonably accurate direction and azimuth.  If you have electronic devices, use them while they last because they are excellent navigation tools.  However, they burn batteries quick.  As with cell phones, you will have to plan on some type of recharger that converts renewable energy like solar or thermal to electricity.  Also, be cognizant of the fact that in the wrong hands, your data stored on a GPS device could tip off others to your route and location.  For example, if your GPS has a secret bug out location stored on it and you ditch it once the batteries die, but someone else later finds and charges it, expect visitors.
  • A laminated map of any areas you will be or plan to travel to in an emergency:  At minimum, you should have a road map of your local area obtainable at any gas station.  As mentioned above, a stand-alone GPS or one on your phone is wonderful when working, but plan for a system failure during a crisis.  Also, as with a GPS, be careful not to label your map in a manner that if it is obtained by others, would compromise your bug out plans.  The easiest way to protect your information, if you must label the map, is to tape a piece of clear acetate paper over it and use either a wax pencil or alcohol pen to make your annotations.  In the event of a possible compromise, you can separate the acetate paper from the map making the information useless.
  • A pocket knife and/or multitool:  One has a vast choice of knives and tools to choose from so pick what works for you.  I found it best to carry both.  For quick access and daily use, I carry a sturdy, lightweight, flip-out folder that can be operated with one hand and clipped inside my pocket for the most common tasks.  The blades are between 3-4 inches so are still suitable for self-defense, but are better designed for making short work of packaging, game, and other daily chores like cutting bailing twine.  Great knives in this category can be found for less than $60, but don’t buy a cheap knock off made in China.  The blades are junk.  I also have used multitools made by Leathermen, SOG, and Gerber.  They are all great tools and each offer some special features and tools so evaluate each based on your unique needs.  Further, if space and weight are at a premium, both Gerber and Leatherman have mini-tools that are well-built, very light, and can fit right in your pocket, but still perform most of the functions of their big brothers.  I use them in all of my overseas blow out kits.  Again, don’t buy junk.  It really pays to get a brand name tool that is quality.  I also see a lot of pretty massive bowie knives and exotic fighting knives.  Generally speaking, leave them at home.  For the weight and size, I can carry a pistol and keep it better concealed.  Gil Hibben exotics (no offense Gil, I still love your works of art) normally aren’t truly functional tools.  However, if your daily life demands or allows you to wear a sheaf knife strapped to your belt, then by all means opt for a fixed blade survival knife.  They are tougher, safer, and generally more capable than any flip out folder.  I really like the robustness and simplicity of ESEE, Swamp Rat, Gerber, and Cold Steel fixed blades, but for the price, Mora bushcraft knives from Sweden are exceptionally good survival knives for half what others cost.  Mora knives are also extremely light and easy to pack so you can get away with one in your kit without the big weight penalty of others.  One last note on knives, I often get asked about the old school Swiss Army Knife.  They do many things, but none of them well.  They are still great little tools and I still occasionally use them when I must be in a suit and tie or less “scary” knives are required, but they are not as user friendly as new flip out folders, not as capable or durable as modern multitools, and not suitable as a fighting knife.
  • A flashlight:  Flashlights, like fire starters, are an area where redundancy is key.  I highly recommend all your lights use high intensity LEDs.  LEDs use far less energy and are far more durable than mono-filament bulbs.  For starters, I buy Photo LED keychain lights in bulk.  I place them on all of my zippers and key rings and have them in various LED colors for signaling and illumination.  An LED headlamp is something I always carry and find indispensable for hands free work at night.  I also recommend you carry a pocket size, high intensity “tactical” light.  These are designed to be waterproof and take enormous shock.  Further, they are now very lightweight, put out over 100 lumens (bright), and double as hand held weapons.  I have used Surefire lights for years, and still do on my firearms for their proven reliability, but find they eat batteries quickly and are pricey.  More recently, I have switched to carrying a Fenix PD32 tactical light that is great.  It puts out a blinding 340 lumens, is smaller than most cigars, and has a power adjustment button that allows me to use the brightness I need without burning extra battery life.  For a tight budget, Olight does pretty well in this category too and shouldn’t be cast aside for the more popular brands.
  • A warming layer:  Even in the middle of the summer or in the desert, always have a warming layer to offset cool nights and rainy chills. Choose a garment made from wool or a poly synthetic material that will still insulate even when wet.  Fleece tops with an outer weave that stops wind are excellent.  If you can find a jacket style top with a hood, you will get even more thermal retention out of a small garment.  Any of your major brands such as Marmot, REI, The North Face, and Mountain Hardware have excellent pullovers and jackets to choose from.
  • A rain jacket and pants:  The ability to stay dry is not only necessary for comfort, but for survival.  Many people that die from hypothermia don’t die in the extreme cold, but rather, die in temperatures between 40-60 degrees Fahrenheit after becoming wet.  To stay dry, you need both a top and bottom.  It is easy to discount rain pants until you actually have to stay out in the pouring rain and walk some distance.  With only a top, water will soon be running down your soaked pants and puddling in your boots leaving you chilled with badly blistered feet.  Pants don’t take up much space, but are absolutely necessary.  Further, when coupled with a warming layer, the rain gear makes an effective light weight coat and windproof pants that are enough to keep you alive in remarkably cold weather.  Again, all of your major brands of outdoor apparel make affordable, lightweight, raingear that you can pack into a small corner of your pack.
  • Medical kit:  At minimum, your medical kit needs to be designed to sustain life at least until higher level treatment can be obtained and should include a few items to allow for disease isolation.  If your kit is to sustain more than one person, you should increase the numbers of the items contained.  To begin, you need to obtain higher level medical training so that you can correctly and safely use the various medical tools and equipment, which we provide at LMS.  With the proper training, the items in this kit will allow you to treat survivable wounds up to and including gunshots and amputations.  However, you will need to train any other persons involved in your bug out plan thoroughly to use the medical supplies because it should be obvious that if you are the injured person in need of higher level medical care, you will be in no condition to do it.  For treating massive hemorrhaging, carry at least two readily accessible tourniquets, two packages of Celox Gauze, one H-Bandage, a roll of Coban style gauze, and two rolls of ACE wrap.  I prefer the SOF-T design for my tourniquets, which is suitable for rapid, one-handed application.  For splinting a host of breaks and sprains, carry two SAM Splints with two or three cravat bandages and safety pins.  For treating penetrating injuries to the chest, include one HyFin chest seal and two ARS needles for chest decompression will be sufficient.  Burns are hard to treat so carry at least one packet of burn gel and a roll of sterile dry gauze.  Airways are can be very complex to maintain so carry at least one nasal pharyngeal airway, a sterile scalpel, and a roll of cloth medical tape.  For minor cuts and abrasions, carry a tube of anti-microbial cream or ointment and a pack of various size Band-Aids.  For blisters add a section of mole skin.  You should also have a pair of EMT Shears and a set of tweezers.  Make a trauma pill pack (includes powerful antibiotics and pain killers taken immediately after a serious injury) for everyone in your party and then additional medications for diarrhea and nausea, acetaminophen for pain and fever, oral rehydration salts, and ibuprofen for inflammation.  For body substance isolation, carry at least one N95 mask and two sets of properly fitting nitrile exam gloves.
  • Personal hygiene kit:  To stay healthy, you need to keep yourself clean.  Your kit should include a toothbrush, toothpaste, dental floss, a small bar of soap, a small washcloth or handkerchief, hand sanitizer, anti-fungal foot powder, lip balm with sunscreen, Glide anti-chafe stick (if you walk a long way and rub the inside of your thighs raw, you will never question adding this again), and nail clippers (this may seem unnecessary too until you deal with an ingrown nail).
  • Duct Tape:  Don’t leave home without it.
  • Cash:  During a crisis, the power is often out and banks are closed.  This means ATMs and credit card machines will not work.  If any money is still being used for transactions, it will likely be cash.  During long term power outages, it will only be the people with cash that will be able to buy gas, ice, and other needed supplies until they are sold out.  Overseas, it is also cash that can buy your freedom or the emergency airfare out of a collapsing country where the currency has been frozen and is quickly becoming worthless.
  • Bug repellent:  Some would argue this isn’t essential until they are forced to spend the night outside without a good shelter and get eaten alive by mosquitos, biting flies, and ticks.  Good sleep and comfort are essential for long term survival, but only discomforting in the short term.  However, more and more mosquitos and ticks in North America are again carrying debilitating and potentially deadly diseases such as West Nile, Malaria, Dengue Fever, Lyme, and Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, which could be devastating in a survival situation if contracted.  To reduce your exposure and risk, carry a small bottle of repellent.  I find that Eucalyptus Oil serves well as a non-carcinogenic, natural bug repellent.  If you must use DEET, use a formula with a concentration of no more than 30 percent.  Higher concentrations do not keep bugs away any better and are just more toxic.  Be careful of applying DEET to any synthetic or plastic material because it can dissolve it.  Further, do not put DEET directly on your skin or body.  Apply it by holding the article of clothing away from your body and spraying it and then wash your hands if possible.  Ultimately though, your best bet will be dressing appropriately and covering your body.
  • Sunscreen:  Like bug spray, many people would write this off as unnecessary.  If you truly don’t burn or live in an area that gets no sun, then that is valid.  However, for the rest of us, a bad burn is not just possible, but crippling if you suddenly find yourself outdoors all day.  For most of us, we spend most of our time indoors and our skin is not prepared for the sudden exposure to the elements.  Further, for pale skinned people, a very bad sunburn could occur in just 10-15 minutes so application of strong sunblock is critical before we even venture out on a sunny day.  To pack your lotion, find a small travel size squeeze bottle to carry a high SPF, waterproof, sun screen.
  •  A hat:  Prevention of problems is of the utmost importance during a crisis.  A simple item such as a hat not only provides shade for your eyes and can prevent your face from becoming sunburned, but it also is critical for maintaining body heat during cold weather.  It is also handy for protecting your identity in urban environments continuously monitored by surveillance cameras.  For a summer bug out kit, one should always have some type of brimmed hat.  For colder seasons, a knit or synthetic watch cap is essential for warmth.
  • Gloves:  Your hands are critical to your survival.  Protect them like you protect the rest of your body.  It is quite easy to injure your hands in a manner that they could quickly become dangerously infected so take proper precautions.  For example, after a major earthquake, medics were constantly treating patients presenting with deep lacerations to their hands.  The quake had shattered windows and left broken glass everywhere.  Anytime you need to work with your hands you risk cuts, abrasions, bruises, sticks, and blisters.  Blisters are very common if you have to use a shovel or axe for any length of time such as digging food or cutting wood.  If working on a car engine or rapidly firing a weapon you can also badly burn your hands.  Environmental injuries are also possible in the summer from burns and winter from frost bite if you don’t protect your hands.  However, almost all of these injuries are preventable by packing a pair of gloves.  If you live in hotter environments, you can get away with leather work gloves or Mechanix type gloves.  However, for colder environments, you will need to have either mittens or insulated ski type gloves to properly protect your hands.
  • Eye protection:  Vision is your most important sense and must be protected.  Something as simple as a speck of dust can cause immense pain and blindness.  Invest in a good pair of glasses that provide ballistic wrap around protection for your eyes.  Try to find a pair that provides interchangeable clear and tinted lenses such as Oakley’s SI series so you can adjust them for all lighting conditions.
  • Good shoes:  Most people don’t buy shoes thinking about what they would buy if this pair was the last pair they could buy.  Further, they often don’t get dressed for work planning to have to walk for miles in their shoes across rough terrain.  Bugging out in high heels or smooth soled dress shoes is not an option.  You will need to either be wearing the shoes you will bug out in or have a pair with you that you can quickly change into.  Fortunately, there are plenty of great options for shoes that are made tough, will carry you for miles, and still look sharp.  The best options across the board for bugging out tend to be mid-weight hiking boots or heavier backpacking boots made by companies such as Asolo, Salomon, Merrell, Lowa, and Vasque to name just a few.  If you are on a tight budget, you can also find a pair of lightly used combat boots, which today are far better than the combat boots issued just ten years ago.  Go to your local outdoor store to try on and find the pair that fits you best.
  • Clothing:  If you go to work daily in a suit, you need to carry a change of clothes with you.  Your high dollar, custom tailored, designer suit is virtually worthless beyond inconspicuously leaving your office building if you need to bug out.  Find durable clothes that are comfortable enough to walk for miles in while not standing out.  By standing out, I mean that unless your plan absolutely requires you to wear woodland camouflage and look like you robbed the local army surplus, stick with conservative clothes such as some cargo pants and a pullover.  You can wear colors like khaki, brown, and green if you need to be low profile without drawing attention.  Further, even bright colors will soon take on earth tones from dirt and grime if a grid down situation persists.  Ultimately, your clothes just need to be functional and should be suitable for the environment you live in.
  • Any medications or eye glasses:  How many people carry their medications for more than a few days with them?  In the event of a crisis forcing you to bug out, you may not be able to get home to gather your medications.  If you have allergic reactions leading to anaphylaxis, you must have at least 2 doses of epinephrine and diphenhydramine (Benadryl).  Further, how many people that wear contacts to work have their glasses with them?  After just a day without cleaning your contacts, you run the risk of severe eye pain and infection if you are unable to clean them properly.  To seriously prepare to bug out, carry at least three weeks’ worth of medications in your kit and if you wear contacts, have your glasses with you.  Even better, if your glasses can double as ballistic protection, this is one less thing you need to put in your kit.
  • Passport:  If you don’t have one, get one.  Preferably, get a second passport from another country.  Put the passport(s) in a waterproof container and keep on your person.
  • A shelter:  No matter where you are going, you should have some means of providing shelter.  At minimum, two Mylar space blankets and at least 30 feet of strong braided rope should be in any kit.  I recommend two space blankets because they tend to rip at the worst times and are never big enough to cover a full grown man.  Given the ability to carry more weight, keep the above and add a tarp.  With a little practice and good site selection, a tarp is the lightest, most versatile shelter you can carry.  However, if you live in an area with swarms of biting insects and/or lots of rain, it is worth a good night’s sleep and dry gear to carry the additional weight of an ultralight backpacking tent.  REI’s Halfdome backpacking tent and Big Agnes entire line of lightweight tents are definitely great ultralight buys.
  • An insulated sleep pad:  If you are like many, your body is not as young and limber as it used to be.  Having some type of sleep pad provides a significant improvement in comfort.  Unlike others, I recommend carrying slightly more weight if the comfort factor justifies it; especially, in regards to sleep.  When you don’t get good sleep, you feel bad, make bad decisions, are less likely to work well as a team, get sick easier, get chilled easier, and don’t heal as well.  Sleep is all too often underrated by “experts” and critical during a crisis.  As important as providing better sleep, a sleep pad insulates you from the ground.  Even on “warm” nights, body heat conducted to the cooler ground can leave you freezing cold if you lay directly on the ground.  On cold nights, it is essential to avoid freezing to death.  The cheapest sleep pads are closed cell foam pads, which are durable and insulate well.  Ridge Rest makes a proven line of refined closed cell sleep pads.  For more money, you can buy a self-inflating, insulated sleep pad.  Their major selling point is that they pack smaller and are generally more comfortable; however, they can be punctured and can weigh more than simple foam pads.  Therma-a-Rest, Big Agnes, Nemo all make great self-inflating, insulated sleep pads.
  • And a sleeping bag:  Many experts would simply recommend sleeping in your clothes wrapped in a coat or space blanket.  I have done this plenty of times and it sucks.  You don’t sleep well and feel like you were beat with baseball bats.  As noted above, sleep is vital.  If you must travel with the absolute minimum of gear or are skilled at building an improvised camp, this is viable.  For example, in urban areas you can layer cardboard for a sleep pad and find plenty of unoccupied structures to act as your ready built shelter.  In the forest you can lay bows of pine under a rock ledge to act as your sleep pad and shelter.  Otherwise, you can get away with a sleep pad and a light synthetic blanket like the classic military poncho liner.  Anyone that has served in the infantry will be able to tell you about the many nights they spent wrapped in nothing more than their poncho and liner.  I can attest that this arrangement can become very comfortable and works very well for summer nights in the dessert.  However, try this in cold weather or during a rain storm and the fun wears off fast.  Under these circumstances, you must modify your bug out kit.  You will need a good shelter, a well-insulated sleep pad, and a good sleeping bag.  Down bags are going to be your warmest for the weight and pack very well; however, they don’t insulate when wet.  For wet environments, a synthetic bag is the better option even if bulkier and heavier.  Both are going to add weight, but if your conditions require bugging out during cold and or wet weather, you are going to need the extra warmth.  You can find a great bag at any good outfitter such as REI.  I have found Marmot, REI, The North Face, Eddie Bauer First Ascent Series, and Mountain Hardware brand bags all to be outstanding.
  • Binoculars:  A set of small, high quality, ruggedized binoculars or other similar magnifying optic will be extremely valuable.  This item is one that many forget or forego, but is vital to identifying problems and threats before they identify you.  During a bug out situation, it may be necessary to cross areas that could be quite dangerous, gang infested, or otherwise unknown.  Binoculars will allow you to safely observe the area in question from a covered and concealed position until you are confident it is safe to travel or can formulate and alternate movement plan.
  • Additional items: Depending on your budget and ability to carry additional items you may decide to carry include a solar rechargeable multi-ban weather radio, hand warmers, night vision devices, a firearm, ammunition, and cleaning kit, bolt cutters, copies of vital personal documents, and gear specific to your bug out plan such as climbing equipment and rope, and river dry bags.

Now that you know what you need in a basic bug out kit, you can design your “bag” around it.  Make sure you include in your size estimate any additional items you may need or want to carry.  Find a bag that you can comfortably carry the items of your kit all day, but make sure the essential small items such as a cell phone, firestarter, pocket knife, flashlight, compass, cash, warming layer or jacket, food ration, and a water bottle are on your person.  For all day carry, make sure your pack has a comfortable waist belt.  The waist band is key because it is actually where most of the weight is carried.  There is a host of military style or “tactical” bags that suit this purpose well, but I don’t recommend them.  They tend to be heavy, uncomfortable, draw unnecessary attention, and instantly scream military.  Unless that is the image you intend to present, it is best to buy a quality backpacking pack.  Again, going to a store like REI and trying out various packs sized to carry the weight and volume of your gear is critical.  A backpack is sized to the individual and outfitters specialize in finding you the best fit.  These packs are designed to thru-hike the Appalachian Trail and are more than capable of supporting your bug out.  REI, Kelty, Gregory, and Osprey are brands that make a variety of excellent packs that will more than suit your purposes.

Where you store your bug out kit is ultimately specific to you, but it must be close by and readily accessible at all times.  Another option to constantly transitioning your kit from house to vehicle to place of work is to pack multiple mirrored bug out kits and pre-stage them in key areas.  I practice this myself and keep identical bags packed in every vehicle, residence, and place of work I regularly use.  This also allows me to move light, react quickly, and not draw a lot of attention.  When I deviate from my normal patterns, I make sure I carry my “jump” bag with me so that I never have to remove my pre-staged bags.  If you can build your preps to this level, you will be far better prepared in the event of a crisis situation.

Today’s post covered a lot of information.  For the beginner, this can be overwhelming.  For the seasoned prepper, this information should have helped them refine their plans and gear.  If you are serious about preparing your bug out plan and ensuring your kit is ready for the worst, contact us at Last Minute Survival for expert and discrete consulting.  We can walk you through building a resilient bug out plan or evaluate your current plan, custom tailor your kit, and teach you the hard survival skills you need to safely evacuate you and your family from any situation.

By Guiles Hendrick

October 12, 2014

Islamic extremism and what lies ahead? Part II: The War on ISIL and Syria

Airstrikes in Iraq

Airstrikes in Iraq

President Obama and his top military advisors have learned nothing and have made a grave mistake starting a war with Syria using ISIL as the pretext.  Just as I was confident and proven correct that this situation would materialize, I am equally confident in my analysis that this new war will lead to America’s greatest foreign policy disaster to date.  Neither war with Syrian nor ISIL will be decisive, successful, or lead to greater security for the American people.  However, the war may indeed turn out to lead to America’s unwinding as the world’s sole superpower and economic bankruptcy.  This post will continue my analysis on the on-going crisis unfolding in the Middle East respective of Obama’s newest war. Read more

Obama Administration is carrying out Bio-Terrorism inside the USA

Leprosy

Leprosy

A conversation with Americans that watch the news regularly would reveal they are aware and worried about terrorism and Ebola coming to the US.  Their fears are not unfounded, but profoundly biased by sensationalized coverage that has been heavily edited by those with political motives.  To illustrate this point, the threat of terrorists using a biological weapon in the US strikes fear into the heart of Americans, but outside of a small use of anthrax, this threat has never materialized.  However, what if I told you literally tens of thousands of Americans have died and millions have been sickened by a deliberate biological attack.  Wouldn’t that on-going attack generate far more fear, outrage, and a sense of urgency to act?  You would think, but it hasn’t.  In fact, as I write this post, millions of Americans have been sickened and or killed by a host of diseases that were once thought eradicated in the US.  Further, new illnesses are spreading to the US that were either non-existent in the US or extremely rare.  How could this be one should ask.  The answer is simple.  A deliberate government policy that ignores the safety and security of the American people, while undermining the nation’s sovereignty has been put in place and allowed to exist by both Republicans and Democrats vying for greater political power. Read more

What metal should preppers invest in? The answer may surprise you.

Cast Lead Bullets

Cast Lead Bullets

 

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer:  Let me begin by saying I am not a financial advisor or money manager or investment specialist.  This article only represents the thoughts of the author.

Many of our readers will immediately conclude gold and or silver are the metals to buy and have on hand to weather rough economic times.  In fact, I don’t disagree and recommend to our readers that they do diversify their investment portfolios to include a percentage of real gold and silver in both US and foreign coinage.  However, one metal is now poised to become extremely valuable and could prove more valuable for a prepper than gold.  That metal is lead and here is why I strongly urge my readers to hoard this metal. Read more

Putin versus Obama Part II: Who is the better leader?

US President Barack Obama (L) holds a bilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin during the G8 summit at the Lough Erne resort near Enniskillen in Northern Ireland, on June 17, 2013. The conflict in Syria was set to dominate the G8 summit starting in Northern Ireland on Monday, with Western leaders upping pressure on Russia to back away from its support for President Bashar al-Assad.  AFP PHOTO / JEWEL SAMAD        (Photo credit should read JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/Getty Images)

US President Barack Obama (L) holds a bilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin during the G8 summit at the Lough Erne resort near Enniskillen in Northern Ireland, on June 17, 2013. The conflict in Syria was set to dominate the G8 summit starting in Northern Ireland on Monday, with Western leaders upping pressure on Russia to back away from its support for President Bashar al-Assad. AFP PHOTO / JEWEL SAMAD (Photo credit should read JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/Getty Images)

In my on-going series analyzing the growing rift between the US and Russia, it is important to evaluate a nation’s leadership.  Specifically, let’s look at the qualifications and performance to date of Presidents Putin and Obama.  Before we go any further, it is necessary to lay down a few ground rules of the debate.  First of all, I want to dispel the myth that a person can be of mediocre intellect, but a good president as long as they have a good staff.  This oft stated notion is a ridiculous excuse used by political parties to mitigate criticism that their brainless candidate is not up to the task.  Further, it is true that no one man has total control of a government, but to say that the leaders of Russia and the US have their hands tied and do not have real power would be a poorly informed lie.  In fact, both presidents have substantial power and influence over both foreign and domestic affairs and craft geopolitical strategy that affects the world.  If there wasn’t truth to this, then why would we ascribe so much prestige upon leaders like Thatcher, Reagan, Lincoln, and Washington?  Due to the real power and influence presidents wield, it is important to assess who has demonstrated the ability to more effectively lead and use that power.  Based on that evaluation, you are better able to analyze and predict the actions and ultimate outcomes of any potential or on-going political conflicts between the US and Russia. Read more

The O’Reilly “Fiction:” Setting the Factor Straight

Against my better judgment, I decided to watch a segment of “The O’Reilly Factor” on Fox News to hear his points on the latest developments in Iraq. In O’Reilly’s defense, he has been a brilliant talk show host and highly successful writer and businessman. However, at the end of the day, O’Reilly is still a journalist with limited real world expertise on many of the topics he provides commentary on. Specifically, O’Reilly poses as an expert, but is totally lacking in experience when it comes to matters of military application and foreign affairs. O’Reilly has never served in combat, is not an intelligence analyst, and so far has not demonstrated himself as a policy maker. So to no surprise, when I tuned in, O’Reilly was expounding his usual pompous, ill informed, bomb them all rhetoric with respect to the Islamic extremist army dubbed ISIL or ISIS. Within thirty seconds of listening to O’Reilly’s poorly informed diatribe, I remembered why I had stopped watching Fox. As such, I feel as though Fox News and Bill O’Reilly needed some better informed input to ensure Fox lives up to its “fair and balanced” moniker and openly challenge O’Reilly to a debate on Iraq policy.
First of all, I want to make it clear we lost in Iraq. Bill O’Reilly is still grasping to a false reality and believes we actually accomplished strategic objectives (won) in Iraq before our retreat. The fact the US was defeated is tough to deal with, but nonetheless fact. It in no way diminishes the honor of our veterans. Suggesting otherwise to those that cannot dissect honor from the success or failure of an army in battle is ridiculous. The notion that loss in battle or war dishonors our troops is no more logical than suggesting soldiers of losing armies across thousands of years of recorded history had no honor. For example, the many British army units fought with the utmost honor in the American Revolution, soldiers fighting for the Confederate Army during the American Civil War fought with great honor, and Rommel’s Afrika Corps has been distinguished again and again for its honor by historians, but all of the above armies ultimately lost their respective wars. In fact, honor is not hinged upon whether one wins or loses, but in how one conducts himself in combat. Iraq was never pacified and never made safe for Americans, but we maintained our honor. The US certainly isn’t calling the shots across the nation now. The end state achieved was a strategic setback for US interests across the region by strengthening our foes. No matter how much the Obama Administration whitewashes our retreat from Iraq, the enemy was still fighting and still holding ground when we left.
For those of you who did not fight in Iraq and have not visited Iraq since our retreat, you should know that Mosul was never pacified and maintained its status as a hotbed of Al Qaeda (AQ) activity. Neither President Bush nor President Obama finished the war. To the present day, Mosul has been a part of the ratline of jihadists making their way to fight in Syria. In fact, US intelligence has been well aware that Mosul has been a key staging point for AQ training and equipping jihadists en route to joining ISIL for years. Mosul has also been effectively “no-go” territory for westerners and has been controlled since before the US retreat by Sunni extremists. As such, the fear and panic that ISIL has “captured” Mosul is overstated. It is true they kicked out the token government forces, but the Iraqi military never controlled anything beyond the ground below their feet hiding behind the walls of abandoned US military bases. Beyond kicking out the token Iraqi forces, the only difference appears to be ISIL formally cemented their previous control of that city and surrounding regions with the execution of anyone supporting the Iraq government. So, if O’Reilly was consistent and well informed, he would have recognized that Mosul and neighboring cities like Tikrit with a large presence of Sunni extremists “falling” to ISIL was not in and of itself a game changer.
Second, O’Reilly fails to remember that it was the Sunnis, during the “Awakening,” that allied with US forces to fight the Shia militias attacking and killing Americans daily. In fact, I distinctly remember Sadr’s brigades of Shia militia backed by Iran attacking US military personnel with zeal throughout the war. I also remember the Shia going from house to house in what was originally mixed Sunni-Shia neighborhoods of Baghdad and ethnically cleansing the population. The Shia death squads brutally murdered any Sunni they found and turned Baghdad into a Shia city. However, it is now the Sunni extremists that O’Reilly has repeatedly called “savages” that deserve to be bombed. I would argue to O’Reilly that both factions have lived up to the pejorative term savage and have demonstrated their eagerness to kill Americans before their fellow Iraqi time and again and as such, we should be happy to leave them to their demise. In short, they are getting what they deserve and I see no reason Americans need to be again placed in the line of fire and paying to “save” savages that want us dead while they are busy killing one another.
Third, O’Reilly has totally forgotten that it was Maliki and the Iraqi government that refused to grant the US a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) that would have protected our troops and allowed them to remain in Iraq beyond their set date of retreat. True, President Obama used the SOFA as a means to justify the US retreat out of Iraq, but nonetheless, the Iraqis wanted American forces out of their country. O’Reilly should perhaps volunteer himself for military service in a country that he is not invited and where killing, even in self-defense, will be deemed murder. Perhaps he does not realize the very real legal dangers our troops will be faced with as they return to Iraq. O’Reilly’s insistence on the deployment of military forces creates a conundrum for the troops because they are being deployed outside of war, to a sovereign nation, and violating its laws. Does O’Reilly actually believe Maliki’s word that our troops will now receive immunity and that President Obama will do whatever is necessary to ensure Maliki is held to his word? I think not.
Third, O’Reilly just doesn’t seem to get the fact that the war as fought under Bush was a disaster and later under Obama was also a disaster. I guess O’Reilly missed the fact that when the war began, Saddam Hussein was killing extremists for free and had nothing to do with 9/11 beyond being the fall guy for Saudi Arabia. It was Saudi Arabia, not Iraq, which was responsible for carrying out a state sponsored act of war against the US on 9/11. This fact is why Representative Walter Jones from North Carolina wants the classified 9/11 Report released so that the public will know the truth and the lies perpetrated by the US government. If US strategy was effective, there would be LESS, not more extremists. Of course it is overwhelmingly clear our strategy failed judged by this bar. O’Reilly also seems to forget that by toppling Saddam’s regime, we created the vacuum that allowed these extremists to flourish to the point they now occupy their own autonomous Islamic state. When this point is made, O’Reilly flies into defense mode and charges the person as an “apologist.” O’Reilly solely blames the Islamists, but fails to recognize the very clear order of events of cause and effect leading to this situation. O’Reilly can believe what he wants, but is not allowed to create his own facts and cherry pick from his arbitrary timeline of events. For example, O’Reilly makes the point that we invaded Iraq to rid the country of Saddam and for humanitarian purposes. On this point alone, O’Reilly must have deleted his memory files much as the IRS seems to have deleted emails. We did not invade Iraq for the purposes O’Reilly states. We invaded Iraq because we were made to believe that Iraq was an existential threat that possessed weapons of mass destruction (WMD) that it would not turnover to U.N. inspectors, was going to use the WMD against the US, and was supporting AQ. Nothing short of creating this existential threat would have brought American into the war. As the invasion kicked off and the contrived lies became clear, the Bush Administration had to save face. The Administration then made a deliberate policy decision to change the motive for the war effort to regime change and humanitarian issues. As such, O’Reilly’s stated purpose for the war is completely fictitious. Further, O’Reilly has chided every democratic administration for humanitarian military operations, but somehow thinks he can hang on to that rationale to defend the disaster Bush created in Iraq.
O’Reilly claims we did Iraq a great favor by ridding the country of Saddam, but again, suspends logic by implying that a full invasion was the only way to “rid” Iraq of Saddam. O’Reilly has to know that there were numerous opportunities and plenty of other options to eliminate and or contain Saddam and any threat he could have possibly posed to the US. In stating this, O’Reilly totally undermines the deaths of near 1,000,000 Iraqis throughout both wars with Iraq. More importantly to me, he also dishonors the American veterans that fought in Iraq by incorrectly believing that perpetuating political lies and propaganda he somehow brings honor to their unnecessary injuries and deaths. Only by telling the truth and prosecuting the political liars within our own government that sent them out to fight a senseless war would he actually do these honorable men and women justice. However, O’Reilly continues to pander to his establishment masters to the disgrace of all who served. Although the likes of Karl Rove, Donald Rumsfeld, and Dick Cheney may applaud O’Reilly, Bill becomes vile in the eyes of veterans those traitors sent to an illegal war. I am positive that very few of the million dead Iraqis posed even the slightest threat to America and would be much happier if they were alive for starters. I am also confident that the thousands of Americans who lost loved ones or that were horribly wounded would also be better off alive and well today, even if Saddam was still in power. No matter what O’Reilly believes from his ivory tower about how we improved the lives of the average Iraqi, the millions of wounded, displaced, starved, and dead would find comfort in knowing the US would never come to “help” Iraq again.
Fourth, our bombing didn’t work, yet, O’Reilly is adamant about the positive effects “heavy bombing” would have for the US against ISIL. O’Reilly seems to think that if we just carpet bomb one more convoy we will win. He seems to “know” that our pilots can positively identify targets flying at nearly the speed of sound or faster and often from above 35,000 feet as long as the “bad guys” are in the open desert. I would laugh, but he is actually serious…and using his own words, a buffoon. I guess he fails to understand how the fact ISIL is operating with the same US provided military vehicles that the Iraqi military is using can complicate targeting. If perhaps, O’Reilly had actually served in combat as a Joint Tactical Air Controller, he would know that his line of logic is ridiculous, but since he did not, let me enlighten him. Just because there is a convoy of trucks with guns in the Middle East does not positively identify the convoy as “bad guys.” In fact, the factions fighting often look indistinguishable even from the ground and much less so from the air. Without good intelligence and legitimate boots on the ground observing, identifying, and marking targets for air, O’Reilly’s airstrikes will not only be futile, but 100% counterproductive. I also think that O’Reilly must have somehow shelved the knowledge that ISIL possesses “Stinger” missiles. Even though I would argue that the likelihood is the bulk of these man portable, surface-to-air missiles are advanced Soviet designs smuggled into Syria by our very own CIA from Libya (hello Benghazi), the missiles nonetheless exist and pose a significant threat to our aircraft operating at low altitudes. I wonder if the loss of an American pilot and an F-16 is worth it to O’Reilly?
Finally, O’Reilly went on to say that ISIL does not recognize the Iraq-Syrian border and that we must pursue ISIL into Syria. I do not disagree that the border has long since ceased to exist and that to prosecute an effective campaign, you must not allow the insurgent sanctuary. Too bad we didn’t use this same logic in Afghanistan where even the dullest of officers recognized that to decisively defeat the Taliban, one must either secure the border or cross into Pakistan, but I digress. Moving back to bombing ISIL in Syria, O’Reilly completely demonstrates his hypocrisy and wins the award for pinhead. Time and again, O’Reilly has been on air demanding President Obama support the rebels in Syria and has attacked the Administration repeatedly for not doing enough, yet, he fails to realize that he is simultaneously demanding we bomb ISIL and support ISIL. O’Reilly is naïve and or ignorant if he fails to make the connection that we have been covertly organizing, arming, training, and equipping the rebel forces in Syria to fight President Assad and it is these same forces, which are now rampaging throughout Iraq. The savages that O’Reilly demands we bomb are the savages we created just like in Afghanistan and Libya. In fact, if we bomb ISIL at their points of origin as O’Reilly suggests… in their training camps in Syria (Jordan and Turkey too O’Reilly), I wonder if he realizes we will be killing American special forces and CIA ground branch officers currently training these terrorists. So I ask O’Reilly, who are the good guys and who are the bad guys because I am very confused.

By Guiles Hendrik
All rights reserved.

As gas prices prepare to skyrocket, thank President Obama and the Saudis

I would like to advise our readers that now would be a good time to buy any fuel you may need for the coming months in bulk if you have the option. At the least, you might as well fill your gas cans and fuel tanks because the price of gas is not going to be getting any cheaper anytime soon. Due to the support provided by the United States (Authorized by President Obama) and Saudi Arabia (Qatar and Turkey to lesser extents), we have armed, trained, and equipped the largest Islamic extremist army of modern times and unleashed it on the Middle East. This army is now massacring thousands across Iraq and Syria to include countless Christians. The actions of this terrorist army will soon come home to haunt Americans that were too apathetic and or foolish to demand President Obama and Congress cease support to terrorist rebels in Syria.
As Iraq implodes, it is the Saudis and Qataris who are handsomely profiting from the spike in oil prices. The spike is a result of Obama’s schizophrenic foreign policy disaster that made it all possible. As America’s badly battered economy faces another blow it can ill afford you now must spend even more money you don’t have to just fill your gas tank, remember it was President Obama and his pals in Saudi Arabia that hooked you up. Oh, and just in case you didn’t catch it, the US government is using your tax dollars to fund terrorists that want to kill you. President Obama is claiming the US needs gun control while using your tax dollars to hand military grade advanced weapons to 100% ardent, hardened, American hating, terrorists. To add insult to injury, this is all being done while simultaneously the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is chasing domestic boogiemen at home. Remember, DHS is claiming you, your veteran uncle, and your 90 year old grandmother are potential terrorists so you must be subjected to total surveillance and physical searches that in the extreme could be considered forcible sodomy. Don’t worry though; this is all for your “security” and to “protect” you.
As I write, the extreme of extreme Islamists forces are massacring their way to Baghdad. To date, the Iraqi army has been totally routed and has fled leaving all of the weapons and equipment for the enemy. The true test of the Islamist army will be when it begins to enter Baghdad and the first all Shia neighborhoods. This army is not immune to the same carnage any army would face in urban combat where the fighting is up close and brutal. As such, I expect the onslaught to be stalled in Baghdad and perhaps even to bypass Baghdad for key oil infrastructure. Nonetheless, the Sunnis have defeated and subjugated the Shia in Iraq before and it is likely they could again. Even if the extremist forces are halted entering Baghdad, they will most likely turn the thrust of their advance to the east and bypass Baghdad. This will allow the army to seize and or destroy key oil infrastructure. This all but guarantees disruptions to production and that the cost of oil and therefore fuel is about to skyrocket.
What can be done about this for now is most likely nothing. We can watch and enjoy the spike in gas prices as our contracting economy shrinks even faster. However, I would recommend you take a whopping five minutes out of your day and cut and paste an email to your two senators and one representative in Congress and demand Congress freezes any form of support or aid to the rebels/terrorists fighting Assad and now campaigning in Iraq. You may also want to call into your favorite talk radio show and discuss these topics. Finally, come November, vote out every single incumbent and replace them with independent representatives.
By Guiles Hendrik
June 18, 2014
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The Rise of the Islamic State of the Levant: As Iraq fractures so does the Middle East

Al Qaeda(AQ) is more powerful today than it was over a decade ago when then President George W. Bush declared his nebulous, ill-fated war on terrorism. Ironically, one could strongly argue it was the war against AQ that made AQ more popular and resilient than it could have ever hoped to be autonomously operating in the shadows. Nothing is more demonstrative of this than the situation today in Iraq. AQ has become a conventional military force and effectively dissolved the border between Iraq and Syria merging it into the Islamic State of the Levant almost completely absent of media attention in the west. In fact, in its first major test as a state like entity, the Iraqi Army conducted a full scale assault on the AQ held portions of Ramadi and Fallujah only to suffer a decisive defeat leaving AQ firmly in control of the traditional Sunni areas of Iraq. The ramifications of this transformation of AQ from a stateless terrorist organization to a conventional army with a defined geographical territory right in the heart of the Middle East are extremely dire even if the Western Media has all but ignored the disaster borne of Bush and Obama’s failed foreign policies.
President Obama has cited again and again how AQ has been defeated and dismantled, yet AQ has repeatedly proven the president either ignorant or a liar as we predicted. As a result of the US conducting its insane policy of intervening in the Syrian Civil War (not to mention creating the war) and then providing military grade weapons to AQ aligned rebels in Syria, AQ fighters now have a conventional military capability compliments of the US taxpayer whether directly supplied by the CIA or indirectly via Saudi Arabia and Qatar. In fact, the heavily armed AQ rebels have crossed into Iraq for sanctuary and taken over large stretches of the western portions of Iraq. As I warned, the insurgencies in Syria and Iraq could merge and create massive unrest in the Middle East. This perfect storm has emerged. With the firepower supplied by not just the US, but Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey, the AQ elements are not stopping in western Iraq and instead have pushed on toward Baghdad. The Shia controlled Iraqi government has so far been unable to retake the areas already captured by AQ and has now been defeated in direct conventional combat operations in both Fallujah and Ramadi. If the Iraqi military is unable to check the advance and growth of the AQ Army, it is indeed possible that portions of Baghdad will be captured by AQ. This in effect will mean that Iraq has effectively splintered into three autonomous nations, one Sunni, one Kurd, and one Shia as I have predicted for years. It will also herald the emergence of the AQ organization, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, into the actual Islamic State of the Levant.
Even if Baghdad is not taken by AQ the situation is already quite dire. An all-out sectarian proxy war has begun between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The battlefield to date has been confined to the Middle East, but it soon will spill over onto other continents with Africa already suffering the worst from growing Islamic extremism. Each side has gained victories and neither is done fighting. Iran has so far managed to maintain its ally Syria against the concerted efforts of the US, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, and even Turkey. Iran maintains strong influence over the Iraqi government, which remains predominantly Shia. Iran has also diplomatically outmaneuvered the US, which based on the accomplishments of Secretaries Clinton and Kerry should not come as any surprise, and forced a deal over its nuclear program to include reducing sanctions. However, Hezbollah leaders have been assassinated in Lebanon and AQ backed Sunnis have taken over western Iraq.
This sets the stage in Iraq for a winner takes all fight that will become very bloody. Iran has strategic interests in maintaining its newly minted proxy government in Iraq, compliments of the shortsighted US policy that toppled the Sunni-Baathist regime of Saddam Hussein. In particular, the Iraqi government allows Iran to move weapons and troops through its territory to support President Assad’s forces in Syria and is colluding with Iran on oil production to undercut Saudi oil revenues. However, Iraq’s government is vulnerable so Iran will support the Iraqi military with Iranian units against AQ. Iran is well aware that by defeating these AQ elements in Iraq, it will severely weaken the rebel forces fighting its traditional ally Syria. Saudi Arabia knows that an Iranian win in Syria or Iraq will most likely mean a strategic win across the board for Iran. Saudi Arabia will view a nuclear Iran with control of both Iraq and Syria as an existential strategic threat that it won’t be able to ignore. As such, Saudi Arabia has to escalate the proxy war it in part created by doubling down and backing the AQ aligned Sunnis in an attempt to weaken Iran. This will lead to greater, prolonged bloodshed throughout the Middle East, a disintegration of borders, and further destabilization of Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Yemen.
Dangerously, almost any conceivable conclusion to the Iran-Saudi proxy war now seems to point to greater war in the Middle East that will be difficult to deescalate. A stalemate or major breakthrough in favor of Iran may force the countries into direct conflict. Saudi Arabia may also lobby for and overtly support a devastating Israeli strike against Iran, which will have global repercussions. It will also signal Saudi Arabia to move forward with purchasing its own nuclear weapons from Pakistan setting off the dreaded cycle of proliferation across the region. However, if Iran is defeated, the results could be far worse. An Iranian defeat means an AQ victory. In the event of victory, AQ will solidify what amounts to the Islamic State of the Levant. This newly emerged state will turn on the corrupt regimes that spawned it and attack Jordan, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia potentially toppling those regimes. Further, AQ would solidify their control of the region and make it effectively off limits for any US interests short of another war. The new Islamic State of the Levant would be a breeding ground for attacks against the US and a safe haven for terrorists that have emerged into a legitimate army. Saudi Arabia, in particular, will be very vulnerable to the AQ fighters and could be destabilized to the point oil production is severely disrupted. Israel will come under even greater pressure as the Palestinians receive increased support from AQ leadership. These are just a few of the first order regional effects without even touching the greater global implications and how it would affect major powers like the US, Russia, and China.
The US will regret that it armed, trained, and equipped AQ elements in Syria for short sighted policies designed to undermine Iran. The ramifications of the chain reaction Washington’s policy set in motion will be dire and far reaching. Already, the world must begin to recognize it created a defacto AQ state in the Levant even if the western media has not grasped this new reality. Nonetheless, one cannot predict with certainty how this will end, but one can be certain that much greater blood will be shed before this new regional war concludes.

By Guiles Hendrik
January 31, 2014
All rights reserved.

As We Predicted: Syrian and Iraqi Civil Wars Merge as President Obama’s Claims of a Defeated Al Qaeda Crumble

Disturbing news continues to poor out of Iraq as it appears Al Qaeda forces in Iraq have transformed from an insurgent force to conventional military force.  This is considered the last stage of a guerilla war by Mao Tse-Tung’s guide to guerrilla warfare.  The successful takeover of the cities of Fallujah and Ramadi by Al Qaeda forces prove they have continued to organize and gain strength contrary to the lies emanating from President Obama respective of Al Qaeda being nearly destroyed.  None of this should come as a surprise.  For years I have been tracking this trend and warning that the Islamic radicals fighting in Syria would soon destabilize Iraq and merge the wars.  Reference:

If not already bad enough, the Sunni extremists have gained much of this power by way of Washington’s covert aid.  Using arms and money from Saudi Arabia and Qatar funneled through Jordan and Turkey the CIA has covertly provided a host of supplies, equipment, and weapons to the rebels.  Further, CIA officers on the ground are advising Al Qaeda affiliated rebel factions and providing them with command and control support.  With this added lifeline the rebels have regrouped across the non-existent border in Iraq and gained a foothold by seizing the major cities of Anbar Province as well as numerous border towns in Northern Iraq.  This sets the stage for a pan-Sunni front rising against Iranian backed Shia forces for a large scale outbreak of warfare in the Middle East.

Make no mistake, by no means is this Iraqi Al Qaeda uprising an organically generated situation.  It is merely a symptom of much bigger strategic issues at play in the Middle East.  These divisions are deep, complex, and overlapping.  Some of these divisions are political, some are economic, some are religious, some are ethnic, but all are divisive.  Sunni versus Shia; Saudi Arabia and Qatar versus Syria; Kurd versus Iraqi; Turkey versus Kurdistan versus Syria; Iran versus Israel versus the United States versus Saudi Arabia; the United States versus Russia; and so on.  The Middle East has become a chessboard of pawns being manipulated by strategic players from around the world in a very dangerous high stakes game.

The result of this will be, as I have previously predicted, ever increasing violence and bloodshed across the Middle East.  Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki will most likely be forced to open up greater political and military cooperation with Iran to put down the Sunni uprising in the western portion of the country.  This will allow the Kurds to further cement their autonomous nation to the north and possibly absorb Kurdish portions of Syria.  This would ethnically redraw the map of the Middle East much to the fear of Turkey, which under those circumstances, might militarily intervene to prevent such a Kurdish unification.  Contrary to Washington’s plans to weaken Iran by toppling Assad, the rise of Obama’s Sunni proxies will cause the plan to backfire.  Maliki’s requests for support will actually lead to increased Iranian influence and potentially new and more direct military supply lines through Iraq to Iran’s besieged ally Bashar Assad in Syria.  This will force Saudi Arabia to become even more overt in its support to Sunni extremists, which will fuel even greater global terrorism and bloodshed in Syria.  Saudi Arabia will begin importing greater numbers of foreign jihadists for the fight and likely buy its own readymade nuclear arsenal from Pakistan, which will greatly increase world instability and increase the chances of a larger regional war.  Nonetheless, Assad’s government forces will most likely continue to maintain the upper hand for at least the next six months dealing Washington a decisive strategic setback that will weaken Washington’s alliances with Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, and Turkey.  This will also weaken Washington’s negotiating position with Iran on its nuclear program forcing Obama to pursue appeasement.  A peace deal with Iran is not in and of itself disastrous and likely good, but Israel will see this as the last straw and likely initiate unilateral strikes against Iran designed to set back its nuclear progress while forcing the US into an unwanted and unnecessary war.  This will be an unparalleled disaster for the US.  See:

As for the biggest players, the US and Russia, Russia will continue its unbeaten streak of foreign policy victories against the amateurish American lineup.  Obama and John Kerry are simply outclassed by Putin and Sergei Lavrov.  Specifically, Russia and its grand chess master Putin will continue to play all sides against each other for its maximum political and economic profit.  Russia will continue to pick off long time US allies such as Egypt as Obama continues to alienate everyone.  Russia will also handsomely profit and leverage any outbreak of war to further corner the oil and gas market while enjoying a spike in prices before global economies crash taking the price of oil to lows not seen in years.  For Russia, losing Syria is not optional as long as the threat of a Qatari-Saudi gas pipeline through Syria to Europe exists.  Russia would lose immense geopolitical leverage over Europe and billions in revenue in the event Assad was deposed without hard guarantees Washington is not likely able to deliver.  In the event Obama doubles down and provides enough military support to bring about Syrian regime change, expect the Russians to triple down and bait the US into another disastrous war in the Middle East designed to economically break the back of the US and force us out of the Middle East.

All considered, 2014 is shaping up to be a violent and climatic year across the Muslim Crescent.  The civil war in Syria will likely reach a tipping point and Iran’s nuclear program will have to be accepted or destroyed.  Iraq will descend into full scale civil war.  Jordan will be weakened by growing unrest and Lebanon could once again be split by sectarian violence.  As for Americans, expect an increase in Islamic terrorism against US targets.  This is a near certainty since vast numbers of radical Islamists have been recently armed, trained, equipped, and organized to fight in Syria by our very own CIA.  This latest generation of jihadists will be armed with much more advanced weaponry compliments of the US taxpayer and will ultimately go on to attack the US after they have had their fill of fighting in Syria.  Specifically, expect to see the use of improvised nerve gas manufactured by Syrian rebels, man portable surface to air missiles smuggled out of Libya, and antitank missiles provided by Saudi Arabia against US targets.  These are just some of the highlights to expect in 2014 so make sure you buckle your seat belts.

For further reading:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/01/04/al-qaeda-iraq_n_4541855.html

http://www.dw.de/al-qaeda-allies-take-over-fallujah-iraq/a-17341342

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10320523/Al-Qaeda-linked-group-takes-over-Syrian-border-town.html

 

By Guiles Hendrik

January 10, 2014

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